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The PandaWarrior Chronicles
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The PandaWarrior Chronicles

  #1531 (permalink)
Elite Member
In the heat
 
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last one for the day

another example of larger pull backs that look like they are counter trend.....I don't see this often in real time although I am trying to get better at it.....today was a near perfect day of these kinds of trades...

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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1532 (permalink)
Elite Member
In the heat
 
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Posts: 3,155 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,306 given, 13,250 received

Trouble with the curve

Having trouble reading the curve lately, which is causing me to have diminished confidence in my trades once I'm in them. Second guessing myself and getting out or going to BE to soon.

A narrow day to be sure, opportunity missed and I'm stopped out for the day. Still below my DLL but still, I just don't have it today.

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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1533 (permalink)
Membership Temporarily Revoked
Birmingham, AL
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
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Nice job of managing risk bud. Keep swinging.

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  #1534 (permalink)
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Raleigh, NC
 
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Today

Monday was a bit tough, couple of opportunities, but you had to be VERY patient, especially with the narrow early range. Hopefully we get some good moves today (Tuesday).

PandaWarrior View Post
Having trouble reading the curve lately, which is causing me to have diminished confidence in my trades once I'm in them. Second guessing myself and getting out or going to BE to soon.

A narrow day to be sure, opportunity missed and I'm stopped out for the day. Still below my DLL but still, I just don't have it today.

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  #1535 (permalink)
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Posts: 3,155 since Mar 2010
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still second guessing myself

So far today, I have passed on a nice short trade and taken what i believe is a very valid counter trend trade. The short I passed on because I said "I wont trade until the range opens up a bit....never mind I had a target picked out long before I took the trade....92.97, the halfway point of yesterdays opening range....60 ticks away. But I passed.

Sitting there watching it go toward the target, taking the counter trend trade and then getting a BE on it (rightly so I might add) was one of the most painful things I've done in a while. The last month I've struggled with mental issues.

I know right when it started as well....three days in a row I was faked out by a bull flag I thought was a trend reversal but instead was just a flag. I got stopped all three days on that trade, and missed the break of the flag to the long side. This caused me to start wondering what I was missing that was so obvious in hindsight.

Now, I find myself questioning everything. @indextrader7 skyped me yesterday to tell me I was spot on with my trades. That made me feel better but confidence has deteriorated for sure.

I want to get back to having a winning attitude and I have proposed taking a series of 10 ticks winners to just get that winning feeling back. However, from a trading standpoint, that doesn't make much sense. I should just take the trades I instinctively know I should take and let them play out. The counter trend trade I took today was one of those and I feel really good about it. It was executed perfectly. Both the entry and the exit. And yet overall, I still feel like crap.

As I type this, the range is still less than 1.00 and I had an opportunity to capture 60% of this....this makes me feel worse than a losing trade...missed opportunity because I was afraid. Missed opportunity because I didn't see it is one thing, missed because I was afraid is an entirely different matter.....

How it looked this morning....

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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1536 (permalink)
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Toronto
 
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Don't be too hard on yourself .... mistakes happen and they are your best friend ..

You will not miss similar set-ups next time , because you know they work and you saw it live today ..

The market is always here and the next opportunity is just around the corner ...

Best of luck !

"Risk more than others think safe.
Dream more than others think practical.
Expect more than others think possible.
Care more than others think wise"
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  #1537 (permalink)
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last post for the day

three more trades...honestly, just trying to not lose the will to trade while at the same time, trying to stay within guidelines and risk parameters.

-15 on the day. Not terrible but not great either. Should have been one and done today. AND I should have captured the long off the bottom but was licking my self inflicted emotional wounds.

Short Trades:

1. Was a mistake. A blind sell at the level. Right idea, wrong timing
2. 70% pull back, good execution, so so management.
3. Didnt wait for the trend line touch. Just closed it out.

Left to take my kid to school as i was done for the day mentally. The long that happened was a classic break out pull back that is working like a charm.....arg.....

I am going back on sim for the remainder of the week. Try to recapture the winning feeling. I also think I will start a combine on Monday IF I feel like I'm winning again.

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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1538 (permalink)
Membership Temporarily Revoked
Birmingham, AL
 
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Ken Grant - "Trading Risk"


Quoting 

As a final point regarding the 90/10 rule, I encourage you to use this knowledge to fortify your patience. In my experience, the typical portfolio manager may go through weeks, if not months, of difficulties in the markets before he or she ultimately gets paid. In these intervals, your thoughts may lean toward the radical as you assume that the core fundamentals of your model have broken down and that drastic changes are needed. In fact, the 90/10 rule instructs us otherwise. It's useful, during these moments, to remember that even the best traders are subject to profitability concentration and, as such, often have extended periods of underperformance. As long as you are managing risk properly during these intervals, it is likely that what you are experiencing is not a fundamental, negative shift in your portfolio management prospects, but rather the ebb and flow of the marketplace, which, as a rule, does not award large profit opportunities to market participants on a routine, continuous basis.

Time is on your side here, provided that you can effectively control your exposures. Over the longer haul, the market is likely to offer you ample opportunities to fill that 10% bucket to the brim. By contrast, if you change your strategy every time you go through an extended dry spell, it's difficult to imagine how you will ever achieve the type of flow that is conducive to your best trading intervals.

For posterity.

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  #1539 (permalink)
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indextrader7 View Post
Ken Grant - "Trading Risk"


I got that book - a great read and full of interesting stuff, but the portfolio theory stuff has been totally debunked now because of the fat tails in the distributions of trading returns. Although you probably realise that already. Or weren't interested at that point in the book.

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
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  #1540 (permalink)
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PandaWarrior View Post
I am going back on sim for the remainder of the week.

Hi Panda

For me this is not a good idea.
Instead take some free time for yourself. No charts, no forum etc.
Give your brain a break. Will be back fresh and ready for trading.

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