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The PandaWarrior Chronicles
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The PandaWarrior Chronicles

  #1441 (permalink)
Elite Member
In the heat
 
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indextrader7 View Post
According to the trades you've posted here for Feb, you have had 27 winners and 13ish losers which would put your win % at 67.5%. I say this to let you know to be weary of Ninja's stats... it's the reason I keep my own. If you're ever trading more than 1 lots, your stats will be screwed up on Ninja.

You're probably already aware of this fact, and just have some trades that you didn't post... but just in case, maybe it helps!

-IT7

This bugged me to distraction tonight. I counted my trades, and compared to my posts....result, there were 2 days I didn't get to post due to schedule issues, a handful of break even trades that I didn't post due to simply getting back in the trade at or near the same level and so counted it as a single trade for the purpose of this journal, a few trades I counted as BE that were actual 1 or 2 tick losers due to slippage and a few trades where it looks like NT counted my multi lot trade as multiple trades instead of a single entry/exit sequence. I assumed this would happen on scale outs or scale in's but since I'm AIAO, I didn't even think about it. I'll be paying attention from now on....

The win rate really is less than 50%, my profit factor is 1.43 which could be better of course but still its pointed in the right direction.

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Now that I've solved this mystery to my satisfaction, I'll be heading to bed now......

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1442 (permalink)
Elite Member
In the heat
 
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Thanks: 6,306 given, 13,250 received

As is often the case, its better to just stick with the original idea. I shorted, reversed at, got stopped out, traded short again, made up the loss, went long, stopped at BE, went short, held through almost another stop and then got a decent number of ticks to make my daily average....way to much trading, way to much thinking....I figured it was short to at least the 50% area, but just couldn't stick it out.

A bit pressed for time this morning but still, I should have just stuck to my guns. The premise played out, not like I imagined it would but it still did end up more or less where I thought it would. So instead of a big win, I have a "normal" day in terms of profit.

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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1443 (permalink)
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The ADR has increased and broken its trend line....not sure if that means any thing since I've never looked at it before. Just a point of interest.

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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1444 (permalink)
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Got beat up early but recovered and ended up with a small profit. Emotions ran a bit high this morning. Got it under control in time to get it right.

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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1445 (permalink)
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Orland Park,Illinois/USA
 
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Emotions

For some reason I am having same problem today

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  #1446 (permalink)
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scratch day yesterday and full stop out today. This hasn't happened in quite a while. I'll be taking the next couple of days off to simply watch the market with no trades to re-establish rhythmn.

Cheers...gotta run...charts later if I have time...

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1447 (permalink)
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marked trades today....daily average achieved....no actual trades, just identification of entry and exits....first one I exited a few ticks below the resistance line, second one I exited a few ticks before the support line....left some on the table both times, but thats ok, good trade selection, market structure exits.....

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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1448 (permalink)
Elite Member
In the heat
 
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Posts: 3,155 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,306 given, 13,250 received

Might be done for the day. Had a nice well executed counter trend trade that went to full target. Not sure if its worth sticking around looking for more.

I'm looking at a possible new entry technique this week. I'm calling it the 70% rule. Basically looking to enter a trade once its pulled back at least 70% after a significant event....ie, trendline or level break.....in theory this reduces the risk but I am also looking to see if I get any adverse selection as well....remains to be seen.

my chart so far.

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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1449 (permalink)
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In the heat
 
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Posts: 3,155 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,306 given, 13,250 received

done for the day

leaving early to see my kid get an award at school....

one and done

Sold the pull back after the level break....exited at the trend line

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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1450 (permalink)
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Michigan, Jackson
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
I'm looking at a possible new entry technique this week. I'm calling it the 70% rule. Basically looking to enter a trade once its pulled back at least 70% after a significant event.
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Hi, Panda,

Your 70% is the price range on a pair of "rolling" initial balance lines? Or are you constructing it in some other way?

Ken "COTtrader"

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