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The PandaWarrior Chronicles


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The PandaWarrior Chronicles

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  #1301 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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Thought I would post a 5M chart from yesterday, its a study in conflict and patience. Of course I didn't look at it even once yesterday, but thought it might be nice to take a look today.

Two trades on it for me, one I could have taken and the second one no chance. Both valid but the second one was way to much risk for me. Overall, 100 ticks available if you were willing to take them both.


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1302 (permalink)
 Patrick S 
Raleigh NC
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
The wind blows all the time. There will always be losers. The point is this, you just keep going. Price action obeys no rules. And no rules you make up to contain it will help. The only thing you control is how much risk you take per trade, per day, per week, per month. Thats it. Once in a trade, you get to control where you exit, after that, the wind blows where it wants.

Dang dude you sound Peeved. Maybe I just mis read your post. So I will assume your cool and write on.
Your right price action does not obey any rules Nor does The market obey any rules. there are only probabilities. For Instance: As I gambler I am betting on the probability that after a price breaks out of a channel it is coming back to retest that channel. If I ( and I mean I not YOU) just go about my trading day Willy Nilly hopping on wthout any regard to a trade I have seen work in the past under similar circumstances I have no Idea of the prabability it will pay.



Exactly how do you KNOW a trade will pay you at least 12 ticks? IF you actually KNOW this, then who cares how big the stop is. The stop could be 10,000 ticks if you KNOW you will be paid 12 ticks. You should bet the maximum size you possibly can at this point. The reality is, you have no idea if you will be paid at all let alone how much. The only thing you know is how much risk you are taking to find out.

Sorry. I mis spoke when I wrote I know. I never know. I am playing Odds.

Once in the trade, all the mental calculations about what the risk reward ratio is goes out the window. Understanding that every entry is basically a random event and that any profit or loss you end up with is also random for the specific trade is key to understanding these so called R:R ratios are meaningless once you enter. You can plan, you can anticipate and you can execute based on that plan and you should do these things, but once that is done, its random and you should never put more weight on it than that. Over time, you will see a trend or an edge emerge, that is what you place your trust in.



The rules say the odds are good it will pay? Really, what or whose rules? What odds, how do the rules know this? Isn't it true that trading is a losers game meaning you will more than likely have more losers than winners? I know this to be true so how can rules know what the odds are you will get paid?

I know that is a tough nut to swallow. These words I type about odds and RR are from my Mentors teaching of the past 2 years.

The point is this, you have three choices in trading, buy, sell or do nothing aka SOH (sit on hands). All three are an opinion. There are no wrong opinions. One mans buy is another mans sell. Both believe they are right in that moment. If you choose to sit out of that transaction, that is also correct. Its not complicated, either buy or sell based on your belief. Control your risk by knowing up front how much you are willing to bet in order to find out if your opinion was correct. Once in the trade, you constantly reevaluate your opinion, you either SOH which is an affirmation you are still correct in your opinion, or you buy and sell to change your mind about your opinion. Thats it. Nothing more. The market (which is nothing more than thousands of other people with an opinion they act on) doesn't care about my rules, my money or my indicators. Those are only constructs to help me visualize and contextualize market movement into something I think I can understand.



I think market replay at any speed faster than real time is useless. It does NOT prepare you for the patience required to win.

I could not agree with you more. That is why I wrote LOL.

I have two basic rules, how to enter and to a lessor extent, how to exit. After that its all risk control. The exit is something I doubt will ever be fixed in my brain or anyone else's unless you are a straight scalper looking for a fixed number of ticks per trade and you either get it or you don't. So I do both, I exit at a fixed number sometimes and others I let it run depending on what I think it might do. I am right and wrong on both most of the time.

I'm learning to let go.............

thanks for the detailed reply. I was not trying to school you. I was just offering my 2cents. Maybe I just mis read your reply. The words you wrote in CAPS had me thinking you were yelling at me.
Enjoy the rest of your weekend.
Oh yeah... I read your trading plan today. I did not know you were an Arizona Guy! thats great! I love the west coast. Lord willing I will be back to Nevada in a couple of years.

What are you learning to let go?

If you always do what you have always done you will always get what you have always gotten.
Celebrate because you executed your edge. Not because you won.
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  #1303 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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Patrick S View Post
thanks for the detailed reply. I was not trying to school you. I was just offering my 2cents. Maybe I just mis read your reply. The words you wrote in CAPS had me thinking you were yelling at me.
Enjoy the rest of your weekend.
Oh yeah... I read your trading plan today. I did not know you were an Arizona Guy! thats great! I love the west coast. Lord willing I will be back to Nevada in a couple of years.

What are you learning to let go?

I know you're not schooling me. The caps are for emphasis only. The trading plan, which one, there's been so many, none of them followed for the most part. My current trading plan is written on a 3x5 card and my money management plan is basically in my head although I took some steps toward a more formal one this morning. Does this make me a bad trader?

I'm learning to let go of the things that cause me stress....like rules, the need to be right, of not wanting to lose, of impatience, rigidity, formality, over thinking, etc.....these are all things that cause me stress and I'm learning day by day to let go....I'm tired of embracing these kind of emotions and ways of thinking. Instead, I want to go with the flow, be flexible, let it work itself out, embrace the probabilities of life and trading. Live easier......

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1304 (permalink)
 Patrick S 
Raleigh NC
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
I know you're not schooling me. The caps are for emphasis only. The trading plan, which one, there's been so many, none of them followed for the most part. My current trading plan is written on a 3x5 card and my money management plan is basically in my head although I took some steps toward a more formal one this morning. Does this make me a bad trader?

I'm learning to let go of the things that cause me stress....like rules, the need to be right, of not wanting to lose, of impatience, rigidity, formality, over thinking, etc.....these are all things that cause me stress and I'm learning day by day to let go....I'm tired of embracing these kind of emotions and ways of thinking. Instead, I want to go with the flow, be flexible, let it work itself out, embrace the probabilities of life and trading. Live easier......

In the end... Trading is not about making money. It is just a natural by - product of learning to let go of the things that cause me stress....like rules, the need to be right, of not wanting to lose, of impatience, rigidity, formality, over thinking, etc..... (copied and pasted your words because I could not have said it better myself)

I will never find perfection in this area however I am getting better at it. Personally I have done it through prayer time, quiet time, excercize, and eating more greens.

You need to take some time to quiet your mind. Think about where you were a year ago and the strides you have made. Celebrate those accomplishments.

If you always do what you have always done you will always get what you have always gotten.
Celebrate because you executed your edge. Not because you won.
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  #1305 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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Patrick S View Post
You need to take some time to quiet your mind. Think about where you were a year ago and the strides you have made. Celebrate those accomplishments.

If my mind gets any quieter, I'll be asleep

Seriously though, you mentioned the nutri bullet in your thread. How do you like that thing? I'm thinking of giving it to my family as a Christmas present.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1306 (permalink)
 trendisyourfriend 
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PandaWarrior View Post
...Price action obeys no rules. And no rules you make up to contain it will help...

I have a different opinion on this. Price action is conditioned by the fear and greed of the participants which materialises in recognisable pattern. What you want to develop over time as you gain experience is a set of heuristic rules to help you navigate within this dangerous and chaotic landscape. Unlike algorithms, heuristic rules do not guarantee optimal, or even feasible solutions and are often used with no theoretical guarantee.

Heuristic rules are good when:

-you have to make a spur-of-the-moment decision OR
-you have limited information and cannot obtain more OR
-the decision is not that important in the grand scheme of things.

A heuristic rule is about decision making or trying to make a good decision based upon what little information is available right now.

As a trader the objective is to develop our own set of heuristic rules. This will be your greatest achievement. When you come to a point where you think there is no rule that can contain price action then it is because you have become unaware of all the rules of thumb that are at play in your head. Most people will just say, that is the experience gained over the years that makes me a profitable trader

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  #1307 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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I can accept this modification of my theory.


trendisyourfriend View Post
I have a different opinion on this. Price action is conditioned by the fear and greed of the participants which materialises in recognisable pattern. What you want to develop over time as you gain experience is a set of heuristic rules to help you navigate within this dangerous and chaotic landscape. Unlike algorithms, heuristic rules do not guarantee optimal, or even feasible solutions and are often used with no theoretical guarantee.

Heuristic rules are good when:

-you have to make a spur-of-the-moment decision OR
-you have limited information and cannot obtain more OR
-the decision is not that important in the grand scheme of things.

A heuristic rule is about decision making or trying to make a good decision based upon what little information is available right now.

As a trader the objective is to develop our own set of heuristic rules. This will be your greatest achievement. When you come to a point where you think there is no rule that can contain price action then it is because you have become unaware of all the rules of thumb that are at play in your head. Most people will just say, that is the experience gained over the years that makes me a profitable trader


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1308 (permalink)
 Patrick S 
Raleigh NC
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
If my mind gets any quieter, I'll be asleep

Seriously though, you mentioned the nutri bullet in your thread. How do you like that thing? I'm thinking of giving it to my family as a Christmas present.

I have been drinking them for about a month now.
The plumbing is flowing much better and I have more energy.
Great product! It is everything they say it is.
Very Easy to clean.
It is fun to concoct different drinks.
We Typically use frozen fruit along with Kayle or Spinich. Napolea cactus Juice, Carats, Coconut milk, bananas, water, ice.
I feel great!
Well Today I did not feel it. Maybe because I have not mixed myself one for the past 2 days. That is generally when I really notice a difference. When I have not had one for a couple of days.

If you always do what you have always done you will always get what you have always gotten.
Celebrate because you executed your edge. Not because you won.
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  #1309 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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Been super busy away from trading. Lesson this last week. Don't trade seriously if you are distracted. I goofed around this last week while really focusing on another project. No winning days was the result. Fortunately, it was all small ball so no real damage done. But still the lesson is quite clear, focus on trading or don't trade.

Next week, I am blanking out the other project for about an hour a day, probably 5:30 or 6:00 my time for around an hour and then the trading platform is going to be turned off. My goals for next week are to simply be profitable. Looking for around 20-40 ticks average if possible in as few trades as possible.

I expect this project to last at least through December and possibly early January. Until then, I expect this schedule to continue.


Cheers.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1310 (permalink)
 bnichols 
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Quoting 
Don't trade seriously if you are distracted.

Roger that. Lost big time yesterday (Friday afternoon) in a trade while running errands, took the rest of the trading week to gain half of it back

Edited to add: I thought losing that big was no longer a possibility. Considering printing the chart with the trade in sections large enough to cover the wall behind my trading desk as a permanent fixture.

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  #1311 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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bnichols View Post
Roger that. Lost big time yesterday (Friday afternoon) in a trade while running errands, took the rest of the trading week to gain half of it back

Edited to add: I thought losing that big was no longer a possibility. Considering printing the chart with the trade in sections large enough to cover the wall behind my trading desk as a permanent fixture.

So did you have a stop in? If so, was it in the correct place? If not,why not? If it was, were you comfortable with the risk in the first place? I'm having trouble visualizing a big time loser that wasn't planned in the sense you had committed to the stop prior to taking the trade.

If it was planned, executed and eventually stopped out, then it was just a failed trade. If it was a legit failed trade with a huge loss, then perhaps it was poorly planned in the first place in terms of acceptable risk.

The way you said this makes me wonder if there was a stop in place??????

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1312 (permalink)
 bnichols 
Dartmouth NS
 
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No stop -- a very dangerous momentum based counter trend trade (short) with a number of preset (higher) entry levels and (lower) targets, most of which (entry levels) I "assumed" would not be hit . It was the worst rookie mistake of all--hubris--thinking I knew everything there was to know about momentum and the market at that moment. I'm just lucky the market was so gentle in its reminder that I never will.

Edited to add: the good news is after the post mortem I now have more signs that precurse consolidation (as opposed to reversal) burned into my brain and plan to transcribe the autopsy results to my futures.io (formerly BMT) journal

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  #1313 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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bnichols View Post
No stop -- a very dangerous momentum based counter trend trade (short) with a number of preset (higher) entry levels and (lower) targets, most of which (entry levels) I "assumed" would not be hit . It was the worst rookie mistake of all--hubris--thinking I knew everything there was to know about momentum and the market at that moment. I'm just lucky the market was so gentle in its reminder that I never will.

Edited to add: the good news is after the post mortem I now have more signs that precurse consolidation (as opposed to reversal) burned into my brain and plan to transcribe the autopsy results to my futures.io (formerly BMT) journal

No stop + running errands away from the screen. It would be easier to just send me your account balance. At least it would go to a good cause and you would get the nice feelings of having helped a fellow trader instead of the oh shit moment you experienced.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1314 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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I have time to post my chart this morning. I also had a bit longer to trade this morning.

Chart is a bit messy but its real time markings so what you see is what you get. Time to move on to other things today.


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1315 (permalink)
 tderrick 
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bnichols View Post
No stop -- a very dangerous momentum based counter trend trade (short) with a number of preset (higher) entry levels and (lower) targets, most of which (entry levels) I "assumed" would not be hit . It was the worst rookie mistake of all--hubris--thinking I knew everything there was to know about momentum and the market at that moment. I'm just lucky the market was so gentle in its reminder that I never will.

Edited to add: the good news is after the post mortem I now have more signs that precurse consolidation (as opposed to reversal) burned into my brain and plan to transcribe the autopsy results to my futures.io (formerly BMT) journal



Wow


AJ
Nashville, Tennessee


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  #1316 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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I was done for the day after the shorts, went to get something to eat and saw the long set up. Figured out where the target might be, entered and let it ride. Of course it ran more but based on the morning's slow price action, that target was reasonable.

Now really done for the day.


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1317 (permalink)
 trs3042 
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PandaWarrior View Post
I was done for the day after the shorts, went to get something to eat and saw the long set up. Figured out where the target might be, entered and let it ride. Of course it ran more but based on the morning's slow price action, that target was reasonable.

Now really done for the day.


@PandaWarrior

Hey Brian. Nice trade. Same thing happened to me on my runner exit. Don't know why price took off like that. Oh well..................waiting for another one.

Rick

"If you're going to panic during a trade............. panic early."
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  #1318 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1319 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1320 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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I passed on this one but it also was a great set up. I passed because I am done for the day. I just saw it setting up and decided to mark it. I didn't think it would pay so soon though.


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1321 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Got this from TST today. Its worth listening to to help with position sizing. Not rocket science but bears repeating.


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1322 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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I have to ask, IF you capture something like this, why would you keep trading the rest of the day. Why even have the charts open? It may run and run and run today, but if you execute well on your plan, why tempt fate?

The pre-open wasn't as nice today as it has been but I survived it to get in and make more than twice my daily goal.

Sure enough, as I write this, it continues to run. So what.




Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1323 (permalink)
 trs3042 
Holland, Michigan
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
I have to ask, IF you capture something like this, why would you keep trading the rest of the day. Why even have the charts open? It may run and run and run today, but if you execute well on your plan, why tempt fate?

The pre-open wasn't as nice today as it has been but I survived it to get in and make more than twice my daily goal.

Sure enough, as I write this, it continues to run. So what.




Excellent work Brian!!!

Rick

"If you're going to panic during a trade............. panic early."
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  #1324 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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trs3042 View Post
Excellent work Brian!!!

Rick

And @trs3042 -- Rick, I am happy to be the one that gives you your 1,000 thanks. It is only fair considering all the support you have shown the forum and its members.



Mike

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  #1325 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Big Mike View Post
And @trs3042 -- Rick, I am happy to be the one that gives you your 1,000 thanks. It is only fair considering all the support you have shown the forum and its members.



Mike


also, thanks for being a vocal supporter of this thread.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 MoparCar 
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Nice trade and setup!

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 Patrick S 
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Got this from TST today. Its worth listening to to help with position sizing. Not rocket science but bears repeating.


I can totally relate to the business man who scrutinized every nickle that went out the door.
This Audio training is stuff I have heard over and over again but has never really sunk in.
Last week I came upon a series of Mark Douglas Videos that someone posted here at futures.io (formerly BMT).
Mark said "Ask yourself How much am I willing to lose to find out if I am right"
And now I Hear this Audio. It's like someone is hitting me on top of the head with this big frickin stick saying " Hey Patrick! Heelllo.. Are you listening?

If you always do what you have always done you will always get what you have always gotten.
Celebrate because you executed your edge. Not because you won.
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 PandaWarrior 
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 PandaWarrior 
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My new chart....more or less naked after my last indicator binge. I like it. Been working non stop on another project. Trading in the morning and then straight to that project. To tired to really post anything of substance.

Anyway, this is today's chart with my entries and exits. It's a lot simpler now.

I had a couple of shorts later on but I wasn't really watching them to close and so moved my stop to be real quick so I could do other things. Both of those stopped at BE.


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Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 PandaWarrior 
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Until I finish up with the project I am working on, there won't be much in the way of commentary. Just to tired.

Chart for the day. Just now had time to get it posted.


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Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 PandaWarrior 
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@VinceVirgil's was cleaner today.



Stop placement


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 PandaWarrior 
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 josh 
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Nice job adding. One of the hardest things to do in trading.

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 PandaWarrior 
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Finished early.


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 trs3042 
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Finished early.


@PandaWarrior

Nice work Brian!!! Enjoy your day!!!

Rick

"If you're going to panic during a trade............. panic early."
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 PandaWarrior 
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Better overnight movement today. I like that. However, same old price movement when I got to the table as the last few days. Oh well....

I got to the party a few ticks late, I read the PA a bit wrong but to be fair, I've taken off the MA to see if I could read PA without it. It was a bit uncomfortable to be honest but still I wasn't completely blind either. I knew what I was looking for and got it.

Note to the future PandaWarrior......think pull back after a break.


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 PandaWarrior 
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I experienced a bit of greed this morning along with a bit of the fear of missing out....Cost me $70 to get over it. I wanted to be long after the break out and decided to wait for the pull back. It never came but price never really made a new high after the break out either. So its short right? Thats what I wanted after the pull back didn't happen the way I thought it would.

So I shorted BEFORE I had a clear signal. I wanted to be right on that trade baby....as soon as I pulled the trigger I knew it was wrong. But it had a chance, so I gave myself 5 ticks to see if it would sell. At -5 I bailed slipped out 2 ticks. -70 because I was greedy. See how that works?

Then did the same thing to the upside, only this time I let a decent trade turn into a BE trade. Nasty. Especially since I knew it was over. The target zone was nailed right on the money, and I left it on looking for a break of the level higher. Didn't come and I should have bailed.

Learned the lesson and made my money on the shorts....took the trades off in the right places, covered my losses and ended up with 22 ticks. Not great but decent considering the mistakes.

Cheers.


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 PandaWarrior 
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Ugly day and and an ugly few days overall. However, I've traded small and managed to make money every day. Today I had a couple of misfires early. But once the inventory was over, I got long and stayed long. Actually i was long way before that but ended up with a scratch after it had gone 30 ticks from my entry. Sat out the news, got back in once price had firmed up and held. +67 ticks on that trade.

The lower trend line I drew after the trade was already in progress so it looks better now than it did live. the second chart shows my trade in progress with the chart structure the way I had it then. Nothings perfect. 4 trades today. 2 of them unnecessary. Oh well. The early failed long was a mis-interpretation of market structure on my part. That should have been the one I held.



This chart shows the actual structure I had drawn, however, I could see the lower channel and drew it on shortly after I took this pic. This showed me where the upper trend line was and where I bailed out.


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 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
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Ugly day and and an ugly few days overall. However, I've traded small and managed to make money every day. Today I had a couple of misfires early. But once the inventory was over, I got long and stayed long. Actually i was long way before that but ended up with a scratch after it had gone 30 ticks from my entry. Sat out the news, got back in once price had firmed up and held. +67 ticks on that trade.

The lower trend line I drew after the trade was already in progress so it looks better now than it did live. the second chart shows my trade in progress with the chart structure the way I had it then. Nothings perfect. 4 trades today. 2 of them unnecessary. Oh well. The early failed long was a mis-interpretation of market structure on my part. That should have been the one I held.



This chart shows the actual structure I had drawn, however, I could see the lower channel and drew it on shortly after I took this pic. This showed me where the upper trend line was and where I bailed out.


Nice work. Groovin on the live trade snapshot.

Wouldn't you like to have just 1 of those every day? Preferably in the first 1/2 hour of trading.....then take the rest of the day off?

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 PandaWarrior 
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For CL watchers, volatility has been decreasing over the last couple of months. Here's a daily chart with the ATR plotted at the bottom.

What does this mean? It means less opportunity to get it right. It means you get one shot a day to get on board if you are going to hold for any length of time. It means keep your eye on the ball, cut your losses quick, and wait for the market to come to you. If you're on the wrong side of the trade, you might not get a chance to recover like you normally can on CL with it's typical 2-4 50+ tick swings. Now we're getting 1 and perhaps two decent swings a day. Today we ran in one direction for 100 ticks. Thats not unusual. What is unusual is that was the only chance.

Its been spike and channel for the most part. So for me, its catch the bus, ride it as long as I can and get off and stay off. After the run, the bus generally seems to simply wander aimlessly for a lot longer than I care to wait around.

One last thing to consider. Don't be greedy with the targets. Keep the narrow range in mind and plan accordingly.

Time to tighten up, put away the lagging indicators that only increase the stop, and be ready when opportunity presents itself.

Cheers


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 josh 
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Thanks for posting this PW. Since Jan 2, the ES has had ridiculously small ranges averaging under 10 handles. We have not had a solid trend day so far in January, so I try to keep my ammo dry during these slow times so that when the market has actual conviction off the open, I can load up. The only thing worse than low volatility and slow days is to trade those and lose money. On a 30 tick day for example, it can be demoralizing to look back and have actually lost money (and have been bored doing it). I encourage traders to have some metric to determine in the first 5 to 15 minutes what the volatility expectations are for the market they are trading. Knowing the range and volume is a good starting place.

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 PandaWarrior 
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I had a hard time maintaining a long trading bias. But I managed to suppress the short ideas and stay long. Albeit not very well. Still finished in the green nicely. I forgot I was planing on adding another lot to my initial entry today and traded singles up to the last trade then remembered today was add day, so last trade was two lots. Overall, I am pleased with the day from a dollar standpoint but the execution could have been better.

Cheers


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 PandaWarrior 
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I got suckered into a short this morning AFTER a higher high had been put in. The higher high should have taken me off shorts but for some reason, it breaking the support level made me think shorts. Never mind the lower high lower low combo I normally rely on was not put in. It was a mistake in reading price action.

By the time I figured out I wanted to be long, I was in the position of reversing further away from the level than I would ordinarily like. I took it anyway. And then waited a LONG time. 45 minutes actually before the silly thing was in profit. And then I disregarded my own advice from a few days ago about taking more conservative profits. that trade went positive then negative and then positive again. I finally moved the stop to BE and thats what I got. At one time it was almost +30 ticks of profit.

I was planning on that being it but saw a short I thought would work out. It went 40 ticks and I got 20 or 21 ticks.

Poor trade management today netted me -$80 on two trades that should have netted me $1200 before deducting the failed short from earlier.

Then the trade of the day was the long at the end but I was involved in my other project by then and couldn't really trade.

I need to make sure next week to take smaller profit targets until volatility comes back.


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 PandaWarrior 
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This dates me but this vid was huge when I was in my early teens....

sitting here working away on my non trading project and cranking my all 80's internet radio.....thought'd like look it up and watch it again.....


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 Ruffcut 
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I need to make sure next week to take smaller profit targets until volatility comes back.

OVX oil volatility is lowest since 2008. That's all the further I could go back. Markets taking a rest or going to sleep?
It might have more impact to come? It is certainly odd, though.

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 josh 
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Ruffcut View Post
OVX oil volatility is lowest since 2008. That's all the further I could go back. Markets taking a rest or going to sleep?
It might have more impact to come? It is certainly odd, though.

There will always be volatility; markets are cyclical, and for months you may see low volatility, and then it will come back, then get quiet again, etc. The important thing is to adjust accordingly.

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 JEHs 
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This dates me but this vid was huge when I was in my early teens....

sitting here working away on my non trading project and cranking my all 80's internet radio.....thought'd like look it up and watch it again.....


Yes that does date you.
You are just a young guy...

You can get help from teachers, but you are going to have to learn a lot by yourself, sitting alone in a room.
Dr. Seuss
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 PandaWarrior 
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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 VinceVirgil 
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Nice trade.

Great way to start the session...

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 trs3042 
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Nice Work!!!

Rick

"If you're going to panic during a trade............. panic early."
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 mokodo 
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With enough effort and stickability my journal will look like Panda's. Thanks for helping to light the way.

know thyself
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 PandaWarrior 
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With enough effort and stickability my journal will look like Panda's. Thanks for helping to light the way.


3 years of near obsessive compulsive chart watching and indicator tryouts plus 1 year of trying to relax and let it flow. Not saying it always does but its getting better.

I wish I had just let it flow in the beginning but not sure that could ever happen without the 3 years of obsession.

I will say this though, the time period would have been a lot shorter if I had stuck with one thing long enough to actually learn it. In the end, price action is where its at and the sooner one makes that commitment the better.

Good luck.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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 Deucalion 
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.......... if I had stuck with one thing long enough to actually learn it. End the end, price action is where its at and the sooner one makes that commitment the better.......

Good luck.

Simplicity and persistence. Words to live by

 
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 PandaWarrior 
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One and done today.

Didn't sleep real well last night. Not sure why but got up pretty tired and stiff. Sat down, took a look at the trend lines, marked in a potential resistance level and looked to take a smallish profit today and be done.

Got lucky on the first try, out with 20 ticks, no heat and done for the day. I know some people say doing this is stupid but I look at it in terms of dollars per hour vs a regular job. This means on CL I made $200 per contract today in about 20 minutes. Thats $20 an hour over a 10 hour work day. I'm good with that. Especially since its possible and reasonable to expect to scale up over time and turn those 20 ticks into something far beyond that. And while I'm small, its ok to take 29 ticks for the day and be comfortable with that. Perhaps I should press it today. Who knows. Maybe I make and lose 20 ticks several times throughout the day. Why not just take my money and run?

I'm gonna watch for about another 20-30 minutes then its off to other things.

Cheers.



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 trs3042 
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One and done today.

I know some people say doing this is stupid but I look at it in terms of dollars per hour vs a regular job. This means on CL I made $200 per contract today in about 20 minutes. Thats $20 an hour over a 10 hour work day. I'm good with that.




I use the same reasoning as you. I've learned the hard way with my demon Mr. Greed so he's no longer welcome.

Nice work Brian, enjoy your day.

Rick

"If you're going to panic during a trade............. panic early."
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 PandaWarrior 
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Was gonna be done today after the first little trade and then I noticed yesterday was an inside day. That made me think we might make a play for the LOD and I decided to try for it. First attempt was stopped out and I realized the play was for the LOD, not for a scalp and I might need to give it some room. So I did on the second attempt and then it took forever and I ran out of time to manage it.

So This is what I ended up with. It did run a bit further before reversing but thats ok, I got the LOD of today's Globex and while its possible the LOD of yesterday may come into play, I can't sit and watch it.


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 PandaWarrior 
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First the link: Discomfort Zone: How to Master the Universe : zenhabits

Then the post:

Discomfort Zone: How to Master the Universe

ĎThe only thing I canít stand is discomfort.í ~Gloria Steinem

By Leo Babauta

Of all the skills Iíve learned in the past 7 years of changing my life, one skill stands out:
Learning to be comfortable with discomfort.

If you learn this skill, you can master pretty much anything. You can beat procrastination, start exercising, make your diet healthier, learn a new language, make it through challenges and physically grueling events, explore new things, speak on a stage, let go of all that you know, and become a minimalist. And thatís just the start.
Unfortunately, most people avoid discomfort. I mean, they really avoid it ó at the first sign of discomfort, theyíll run as fast as possible in the other direction. This is perhaps the biggest limiting factor for most people, and itís why you canít change your habits.

Think about this: many people donít eat vegetables because they donít like the taste. Weíre not talking about soul-wrenching pain here, not Guantanamo torture, but a taste thatís just not something youíre used to. And so they eat what they already like, which is sweets and fried stuff and meats and cheeses and salty things and lots of processed flour.

The simple act of learning to get used to something that tastes different ó not really that hard in the grand scheme of life ó makes people unhealthy, often overweight.

I know, because this was me for so many years. I became fat and sedentary and a smoker and deeply in debt with lots of clutter and procrastination, because I didnít like things that were uncomfortable. And so I created a life that was deeply uncomfortable as a result.

The beautiful thing is: I learned that a little discomfort isnít a bad thing. In fact, it can be something you enjoy, with a little training. When I learned this, I was able to change everything, and am still pretty good at changing because of this one skill.

Master your fear of discomfort, and you can master the universe.

Avoidance of Discomfort


When people are stressed, they often turn to cigarettes, food, shopping, alcohol, drugs Ö anything to get rid of the disomfort of the thing thatís stressing them out. And yet, if you take a deeper look at the stress, itís really an unfounded fear thatís causing it (usually the fear that weíre not good enough), and if we examined it and gave it some light of day, it would start to go away.

When people start to exercise after being sedentary, they are uncomfortable. Itís hard! It can make you sore. Itís not as easy as not exercising. Itís not something youíre used to doing, and you fear doing it wrong or looking stupid. And so you stop after awhile, because itís uncomfortable, when really itís not horrible to be uncomfortable for a little while. Weíre not talking about incredible pain, but just discomfort.

When people try a healthier diet, they often donít like it ó eating veggies and raw nuts and flaxseeds and fruits and tofu or tempeh or black beans isnít as thrilling as eating fried, fatty, salty or sweet foods. Itís a form of discomfort to change your taste buds, but the truth is, it can easily happen if you just get through a little discomfort.

Discomfort isnít bad. Itís just not what weíre used to. And so we avoid it, but at the cost of not being able to change things, not being healthy, not being open to adventure and the chaos of raw life.

Mastering Discomfort


The way to master discomfort is to do it comfortably. That might sound contradictory, but itís not. If you are afraid of discomfort, and you try to beat discomfort with a really gruelling activity, you will probably give up and fail, and go back to comfort.

So do it in small doses.

Pick something thatís not hard. Take meditation as an example. Itís not really that hard ó you just sit down and pay attention to your body and breath, in the present moment. You donít have to empty your mind (just notice your thoughts), you donít have to chant anything weird, you just sit and pay attention. If you donít like meditation, try a new healthy food, like kale or raw almonds or quinoa. Or a fairly easy exercise if youíre sedentary, like walking or jogging.

Just do a little. You donít have to start by doing 30 minutes of something youíre not used to doing. Just do a few minutes. Just start.

Push out of your comfort zone, a little. My friend and Zen priest Susan OíConnell has a favorite meditation instruction that you can use for any activity actually: when youíre meditating and you feel like getting up, donít; then when you feel the urge to get up a second time, donít; and when you feel the urge to get up a third time, then get up. So you sit through the urge, the discomfort, twice before finally giving in the third time. This is a nice balance, so that youíre pushing your comfort zone a little. You can do this in exercise and many other activities ó push a little.

Watch the discomfort. Watch yourself as you get a bit uncomfortable ó are you starting to complain (internally)? Are you looking for ways to avoid it? Where do you turn to? What happens if you stay with it, and donít do anything?

Smile. This is not trivial advice. If you can smile while being uncomfortable, you can learn to be happy with discomfort, with practice. When I did the Goruck Challenge in 2011, it was 13 hours of discomfort ó raw and bloody knees, sand in my shoes as a hiked and ran with 60+ pounds on my back, carrying teammates and logs, doing pushups and crabwalks and other exercises, needing the bathroom and being tired and hungry and cold. And yet, I practiced something simple: I tried to mantain a smile through all this discomfort. Itís an important practice.
Repeat this practice daily. It will be strange, perhaps difficult, at first, but soon your comfort zone will expand. If you practice it enough, with different activities, your comfort zone will expand to include discomfort. And then you can master the universe.

What You Can Now Master


If you master discomfort, what can you now master as a result? Just about anything:

Procrastination. We procrastinate to avoid something thatís not comfortable, but if you can learn to stay with that task, even if itís not comfortable. The discomfort isnít bad. Those of you going through the Procrastination module in my Sea Change Program are learning about dealing with the discomfort of staying with your important task.
Exercise. We avoid exercise because itís not comfortable, but if we expand the comfort zone a little at a time, we can make exercise something weíre comfortable with, after a little repetition.

Writing. If you want to write but always seem to put it off, thatís because writing is often difficult, or less comfortable than checking email or social networks (for example). Stay with the discomfort, and youíll write more than ever.

Eating healthy. Itís amazing how much our taste buds can change over time, if we gradually get used to healthier foods. That means going through small periods of discomfort, but itís not that bad in little doses.
Meditation. We avoid the disomfort of sitting and doing nothing, of focusing on the present. But itís not that hard ó just a little uncomfortable.

Waking early. Waking early means being a little tired for a little while, but thatís not a horrible thing. Read more about rising early.

Learning a language/instrument. Want to learn something new? That means doing something youíre not used to, by definition, and so we often quit before we master this new skill, simply because (you guessed it) it makes us uncomfortable. Stay with the discomfort, and before long youíll enjoy learning this new skill.

Clutter. Clutter is just another form of procrastination. You donít put things away, or you let a pile of things you donít need build up, because itís not comfortable dealing with it right now (as compared to, say, browsing the Internet or watching TV). But dealing with something right now isnít that hard once you get past the discomfort.
Reading novels. We tend to avoid simply sitting with a book, because we are pulled towards something more comfortable (again, Internet browsing as an example). If we can just sit with the book and a little discomfort, we can read more.

Empty email inbox. Another form of procrastination ó you get some emails, maybe look at them, but put off dealing with them right now because itís easier not to.

Debt. This is a series of things we have to deal with that are uncomfortable ó listing out our debts and bills, making a simple budget, doing things that are free instead of shopping, etc. But I got out of debt by finally facing all of these things, and it was wonderful.

New adventures. Many people stay with places theyíre comfortable with, which means missing out on new experiences that might be a little uncomfortable. Even when they travel, many people stick with the tourist sights and food that theyíre used to, rather than finding strange but more authentic experiences in a new land. We avoid meeting new people, speaking on stage, letting go of what we know, being open to new things Ö to avoid discomfort.

And thatís just the start. Within each of these areas thereís many things you can work on over the coming years now that youíre not afraid of discomfort, and there are many other areas of exploration now open to you.
Discomfort can be the joyful key that opens up everything for you.

ĎDiscomfort is very much part of my master plan.í ~Jonathan Lethem

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 mokodo 
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Yes agree with the sentiment here - stressed systems adapt and survive.

Borrowing an idea from Nasim Nicholas Taleb's new book 'antifragile'. If you are self-employed you HAVE to go out of your comfort zone, you adapt through subtle changes and flex - and you have more control over whether you can pay the bills. There are good months, bad months, but survival is in your hands. Compare that to the employee who is insulated from external stressors until his/her boss reacts to them and sacks him/her. 100% comfort to 100% discomfort in a split second. Ouch.

Give me the broad open plain of self determination any day - stressors and all.

Happy trading

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 tigertrader 
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PandaWarrior View Post
3 years of near obsessive compulsive chart watching and indicator tryouts plus 1 year of trying to relax and let it flow. Not saying it always does but its getting better.

I wish I had just let it flow in the beginning but not sure that could ever happen without the 3 years of obsession.

I will say this though, the time period would have been a lot shorter if I had stuck with one thing long enough to actually learn it. In the end, price action is where its at and the sooner one makes that commitment the better.

Good luck.


would have to put trade/money management on the same hallowed ground as price action, brian

that being said, your journey of self-discovery was both necessary and inevitable

lessons are learned from losing; winning is the culmination of lessons learned...

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 wldman 
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in the house! How have you been? We miss you.

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 PandaWarrior 
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tigertrader View Post
would have to put trade/money management on the same hallowed ground as price action, brian

that being said, your journey of self-discovery was both necessary and inevitable

lessons are learned from losing; winning is the culmination of lessons learned...

100% agree.....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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 PandaWarrior 
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I tried to get cute, fade the trend. I never do this but I did today and remembered why its not advisable. It costs money!

Got back to BE then shorted again without the recquisite LH/LL combination and again paid for it. Finally got the required combo and recovered the loss plus made enough to pay for the day.

However, had I taken the first long signal which resulted in my first stop out instead of the short, my day would have ended much sooner and with more profit.

Not happy with the failure to recognize what was happening.


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 gigibastar 
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Patience, engraving by Hans Sebald Beham, 1540

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 PandaWarrior 
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One and done today. Woke up late, have to leave early....so it worked out. Of course it ran up to past my "normal" larger targets but since I have to run now, I suppose thats ok as well.

cheers.....


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 gigibastar 
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One and done today. Woke up late, have to leave early....so it worked out. Of course it ran up to past my "normal" larger targets but since I have to run now, I suppose thats ok as well.

cheers.....


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 Zondor 
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I would like to thank those who trade without indicators for providing liquidity, although my conscience is bothering me.

I will get over it.


"If we don't loosen up some money, this sucker is going down." -GW Bush, 2008
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 gigibastar 
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 PandaWarrior 
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If only it were true!

My first sequence:




Final chart:



Mistakes made early carried into the rest of the day. Instead of being one and done with 50+ticks, it took several cautious attempts to make back the mistakes and it took all my allotted time. Not how I want my trading day to go.

Lesson learned today, look at the previous day along with the current one to determine trend lines....just in case. I'm a short term term trader so multiple days aren't necessarily important every day, but looking just to the left of the chart would have saved me a lot of money today.

Cheers

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 PandaWarrior 
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Very near exhaustion today. Very late night last night, wife not sleeping which caused me to have a very restless night....nothing good comes from this:

Start over next week after I try to recover some of the sleep deprivation.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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 trs3042 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Very near exhaustion today. Very late night last night, wife not sleeping which caused me to have a very restless night....nothing good comes from this:

Start over next week after I try to recover some of the sleep deprivation.

@PandaWarrior

Hey Brian,

Have a restful weekend. Monday is another day.

Rick

"If you're going to panic during a trade............. panic early."
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 ollivermilton 
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@ panda
a little off-topic...
what backgroundcolor are you using?

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 PandaWarrior 
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ollivermilton View Post
@ panda
a little off-topic...
what backgroundcolor are you using?


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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 PandaWarrior 
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Oh man, had a relapse yesterday of the ear infection I had over the Christmas holiday's. Talk about pain.....horrible. Took my trades this morning, then ran off to get meds.....I even left the last trade all alone with out me and only an ATM to manage it. Not optimum of course but the best I could do under the circumstances. I had to have meds....

Anyway, I made enough money today to justify getting out of bed today and then I said screw it and worked on my other ongoing project. Have a bit of a break right now and taking the time to post my chart as I'm not sure I'll get it done later tonight.

I've also had a bit of an aha moment with regards to stop management. It may turn out to be nothing more than another idea whose time never came but I think it has merit. More on this later in the week as I experiment with it a bit more.

Another idea I had this weekend was about trend lines and where to draw them. Basically I thought to only draw a up sloping trend line below swing lows that correspond with CONFIRMED higher highs. Again, I'll detail this later this week when i have a bit more time to get into it.....I hope.



Cheers

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 Big Mike 
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Feel better soon Brian!



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 podski 
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Hello PandaWarrior,

I am a fan of your journal and especially liked your Webinar.

One of the things that you mentioned is that you did the Top Step Trader programme and that the thing that you learned most from that was the money management aspect.

Is that simply just keeping to your rules
1. Knowing and sticking to your position size
2. Stop and target management
3. Daily limits
Is there a special tool/spreadsheet/format/image or training tool that brought that alive for you ?

br

podski

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 PandaWarrior 
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I'm still sick and I received disturbing news this morning regarding the health of one of my good friends.



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 PandaWarrior 
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podski View Post
Hello PandaWarrior,

I am a fan of your journal and especially liked your Webinar.

One of the things that you mentioned is that you did the Top Step Trader programme and that the thing that you learned most from that was the money management aspect.

Is that simply just keeping to your rules
1. Knowing and sticking to your position size
2. Stop and target management
3. Daily limits
Is there a special tool/spreadsheet/format/image or training tool that brought that alive for you ?

br

podski

I'm glad you enjoy the thread. Hopefully we can all learn a little something along the way.

As to the TST program, it certainly has its merits. One of them is the fact they give you enough rope to hang yourself in terms of the daily stop loss being larger than the average daily profit objective. It really is up to you to manage that more appropriately.

Perhaps I misspoke about how the program helped me with money management. It did but more importantly, it helped me learn to manage risk. They are not the same things.

For instance, if your track record shows you averaging $200 as a daily win, then are you willing to lose $1000 to make that? You must decide and trade accordingly.

For most in the combine, its position size and stop placement. The stops to big for the size and so the trader panics early and often...Not a good recipe for success.

Much better to size down, put the stop in where it really belongs, which is somewhere they are not easily hunted without changing the structure of the current trend and then simply holding on to the trade until you are either wrong or you are rewarded. Trail stops cautiously if at all.

As to spreadsheets or other tools, the only thing I currently track is my average daily win. I refuse to lose much more than that on a daily basis and about the only way I increase size is when I reach the delta I've decided is appropriate for me.

Sorry I am rambling so much, my attention has been diverted from trading but I wanted to get your question answered...

hope this helps...

Cheers

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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 gigibastar 
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PandaWarrior View Post
I'm still sick ...


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 PandaWarrior 
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An up close look at the hourly.......


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 Adamus 
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Since you ask, but having no experience with crude, I'd say it's going to go down.

But I'd say wait until you get a price action trigger on the 60min or lower TF that it's leaving that stall on the 60min chart, in one direction or the other.

Looks like there'll be a nice move, but the market will probably fake it first, and if you go in on that first move, and it is a trap, you'll have to reverse.

So I'm not really committing myself either way

Looking forward to seeing the result - and what you did!

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 gigibastar 
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Waiting for a short ...

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 PandaWarrior 
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Today I overslept, pretty tired from fighting this ear infection. Its turned into a sinus infection and i am having a hard time breathing which makes me pretty tired. So I slept a long time last night....I guess I needed it.

Got to the chart around 6:45AM, price had just broken the levels from the overnight down trend and a counter trend long set up. I entered, let it go and trailed out when the long structure failed. Of course there was more in it but how I view price said it was time to get out, so I did.

There was a real short signal soon after, however I didn't take it. I'm happy getting it right once or twice a day, and this was it for me.

The short would have either stopped out, had a scale out if you do that or perhaps a BE depending on how you manage your trades.


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 PandaWarrior 
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gigibastar View Post
Waiting for a short ...

The short came, how'd you do with it?

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shanemcdonald28
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Panda,
Do you draw your trendline on the close, or high/low ?

thanks

nice trade

shane

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 gigibastar 
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The short came, how'd you do with it?

Short stopped at +1 tick
I am long now at +40 ticks

OUT at +85ticks

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 gigibastar 
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 PandaWarrior 
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shanemcdonald28 View Post
Panda,
Do you draw your trendline on the close, or high/low ?

thanks

nice trade

shane

i draw the line where it makes sense. But in general, I try to catch the wicks and tails. I have found for my purposes, there was buying or selling there so may as well capture it.

Further, I am refining a bit where I start the trend line. I've not fully worked this out yet so no commentary yet but suffice to say, it has to do with support and resistance and the points where they fail. More to come if it has merit.

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 PandaWarrior 
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gigibastar View Post
Short stopped at +1 tick
I am long now at +40 ticks

OUT at +85ticks

Very nice. Good job.

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 Hapster 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Today I overslept, pretty tired from fighting this ear infection. Its turned into a sinus infection and i am having a hard time breathing which makes me pretty tired. So I slept a long time last night....I guess I needed it.[/screencast]

Two words: Neti Pot... will clear out that sinus infection like no other meds will and it's natural.... 10 bucks at CVS... best 10 bucks you'll ever spend...trust me.

Hap

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 Big Mike 
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Brian, I'd also recommend getting something like this for your office and bedroom. It has helped me, and Texas isn't as dry as Arizona.

Amazon.com: Heaven Fresh HF 707 Digital Ultrasonic Cool and Warm Mist Humidifier and Ionizer - with Remote Control: Home & Kitchen

I like mine a lot. Auto on/off, warm and cool mist options, and permanent water filter to help reduce 'white dust' from settling on furniture. Only problem is that it only works for a pretty small room, it stays on 24/7 here at my house.

When I first turned mine on, the humidity was around 20%. Very low, and I have very dry skin and lots of allergy problems.

Mike

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 PandaWarrior 
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Hapster View Post
Two words: Neti Pot... will clear out that sinus infection like no other meds will and it's natural.... 10 bucks at CVS... best 10 bucks you'll ever spend...trust me.

Hap


I own one and use it faithfully during allergy season, however this one caught me by surprise. Never felt it coming on. And I'm somewhat predisposed to these awful things anyway and so once I get one, it takes an act of congress to get rid of it....tomorrow is the fourth day, should start to see some improvement then.....and two weeks for a full disappearance.....

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Big Mike View Post
Brian, I'd also recommend getting something like this for your office and bedroom. It has helped me, and Texas isn't as dry as Arizona.

Amazon.com: Heaven Fresh HF 707 Digital Ultrasonic Cool and Warm Mist Humidifier and Ionizer - with Remote Control: Home & Kitchen

I like mine a lot. Auto on/off, warm and cool mist options, and permanent water filter to help reduce 'white dust' from settling on furniture. Only problem is that it only works for a pretty small room, it stays on 24/7 here at my house.

When I first turned mine on, the humidity was around 20%. Very low, and I have very dry skin and lots of allergy problems.

Mike

I will look into it. My only question is how the increased humidity might affect my computers, tv and other electronic devices.

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PandaWarrior View Post
I will look into it. My only question is how the increased humidity might affect my computers, tv and other electronic devices.

Most electronics are designed to work in humidity up to like 90%. Shouldn't be a problem. I have my unit set to 50%.

Mike

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 PandaWarrior 
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 gigibastar 
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I'm short
YOU?
still short moved my sl @96.35
sl 96.16
out at 96.04

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gigibastar View Post


I'm short
YOU?
still short moved my sl @96.35

No, I'm done, but that is an outstanding trade. Congrats

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 gigibastar 
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 gigibastar 
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I'm long

OUT +27
Have a nice weekend!

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