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Better overnight movement today. I like that. However, same old price movement when I got to the table as the last few days. Oh well....
I got to the party a few ticks late, I read the PA a bit wrong but to be fair, I've taken off the MA to see if I could read PA without it. It was a bit uncomfortable to be honest but still I wasn't completely blind either. I knew what I was looking for and got it.
Note to the future PandaWarrior......think pull back after a break.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
I experienced a bit of greed this morning along with a bit of the fear of missing out....Cost me $70 to get over it. I wanted to be long after the break out and decided to wait for the pull back. It never came but price never really made a new high after the break out either. So its short right? Thats what I wanted after the pull back didn't happen the way I thought it would.
So I shorted BEFORE I had a clear signal. I wanted to be right on that trade baby....as soon as I pulled the trigger I knew it was wrong. But it had a chance, so I gave myself 5 ticks to see if it would sell. At -5 I bailed slipped out 2 ticks. -70 because I was greedy. See how that works?
Then did the same thing to the upside, only this time I let a decent trade turn into a BE trade. Nasty. Especially since I knew it was over. The target zone was nailed right on the money, and I left it on looking for a break of the level higher. Didn't come and I should have bailed.
Learned the lesson and made my money on the shorts....took the trades off in the right places, covered my losses and ended up with 22 ticks. Not great but decent considering the mistakes.
Cheers.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Ugly day and and an ugly few days overall. However, I've traded small and managed to make money every day. Today I had a couple of misfires early. But once the inventory was over, I got long and stayed long. Actually i was long way before that but ended up with a scratch after it had gone 30 ticks from my entry. Sat out the news, got back in once price had firmed up and held. +67 ticks on that trade.
The lower trend line I drew after the trade was already in progress so it looks better now than it did live. the second chart shows my trade in progress with the chart structure the way I had it then. Nothings perfect. 4 trades today. 2 of them unnecessary. Oh well. The early failed long was a mis-interpretation of market structure on my part. That should have been the one I held.
This chart shows the actual structure I had drawn, however, I could see the lower channel and drew it on shortly after I took this pic. This showed me where the upper trend line was and where I bailed out.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
For CL watchers, volatility has been decreasing over the last couple of months. Here's a daily chart with the ATR plotted at the bottom.
What does this mean? It means less opportunity to get it right. It means you get one shot a day to get on board if you are going to hold for any length of time. It means keep your eye on the ball, cut your losses quick, and wait for the market to come to you. If you're on the wrong side of the trade, you might not get a chance to recover like you normally can on CL with it's typical 2-4 50+ tick swings. Now we're getting 1 and perhaps two decent swings a day. Today we ran in one direction for 100 ticks. Thats not unusual. What is unusual is that was the only chance.
Its been spike and channel for the most part. So for me, its catch the bus, ride it as long as I can and get off and stay off. After the run, the bus generally seems to simply wander aimlessly for a lot longer than I care to wait around.
One last thing to consider. Don't be greedy with the targets. Keep the narrow range in mind and plan accordingly.
Time to tighten up, put away the lagging indicators that only increase the stop, and be ready when opportunity presents itself.
Cheers
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
