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The PandaWarrior Chronicles
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The PandaWarrior Chronicles

  #1301 (permalink)
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In the heat
 
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Thought I would post a 5M chart from yesterday, its a study in conflict and patience. Of course I didn't look at it even once yesterday, but thought it might be nice to take a look today.

Two trades on it for me, one I could have taken and the second one no chance. Both valid but the second one was way to much risk for me. Overall, 100 ticks available if you were willing to take them both.

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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1302 (permalink)
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PandaWarrior View Post
The wind blows all the time. There will always be losers. The point is this, you just keep going. Price action obeys no rules. And no rules you make up to contain it will help. The only thing you control is how much risk you take per trade, per day, per week, per month. Thats it. Once in a trade, you get to control where you exit, after that, the wind blows where it wants.

Dang dude you sound Peeved. Maybe I just mis read your post. So I will assume your cool and write on.
Your right price action does not obey any rules Nor does The market obey any rules. there are only probabilities. For Instance: As I gambler I am betting on the probability that after a price breaks out of a channel it is coming back to retest that channel. If I ( and I mean I not YOU) just go about my trading day Willy Nilly hopping on wthout any regard to a trade I have seen work in the past under similar circumstances I have no Idea of the prabability it will pay.



Exactly how do you KNOW a trade will pay you at least 12 ticks? IF you actually KNOW this, then who cares how big the stop is. The stop could be 10,000 ticks if you KNOW you will be paid 12 ticks. You should bet the maximum size you possibly can at this point. The reality is, you have no idea if you will be paid at all let alone how much. The only thing you know is how much risk you are taking to find out.

Sorry. I mis spoke when I wrote I know. I never know. I am playing Odds.

Once in the trade, all the mental calculations about what the risk reward ratio is goes out the window. Understanding that every entry is basically a random event and that any profit or loss you end up with is also random for the specific trade is key to understanding these so called R:R ratios are meaningless once you enter. You can plan, you can anticipate and you can execute based on that plan and you should do these things, but once that is done, its random and you should never put more weight on it than that. Over time, you will see a trend or an edge emerge, that is what you place your trust in.



The rules say the odds are good it will pay? Really, what or whose rules? What odds, how do the rules know this? Isn't it true that trading is a losers game meaning you will more than likely have more losers than winners? I know this to be true so how can rules know what the odds are you will get paid?

I know that is a tough nut to swallow. These words I type about odds and RR are from my Mentors teaching of the past 2 years.

The point is this, you have three choices in trading, buy, sell or do nothing aka SOH (sit on hands). All three are an opinion. There are no wrong opinions. One mans buy is another mans sell. Both believe they are right in that moment. If you choose to sit out of that transaction, that is also correct. Its not complicated, either buy or sell based on your belief. Control your risk by knowing up front how much you are willing to bet in order to find out if your opinion was correct. Once in the trade, you constantly reevaluate your opinion, you either SOH which is an affirmation you are still correct in your opinion, or you buy and sell to change your mind about your opinion. Thats it. Nothing more. The market (which is nothing more than thousands of other people with an opinion they act on) doesn't care about my rules, my money or my indicators. Those are only constructs to help me visualize and contextualize market movement into something I think I can understand.



I think market replay at any speed faster than real time is useless. It does NOT prepare you for the patience required to win.

I could not agree with you more. That is why I wrote LOL.

I have two basic rules, how to enter and to a lessor extent, how to exit. After that its all risk control. The exit is something I doubt will ever be fixed in my brain or anyone else's unless you are a straight scalper looking for a fixed number of ticks per trade and you either get it or you don't. So I do both, I exit at a fixed number sometimes and others I let it run depending on what I think it might do. I am right and wrong on both most of the time.

I'm learning to let go.............

thanks for the detailed reply. I was not trying to school you. I was just offering my 2cents. Maybe I just mis read your reply. The words you wrote in CAPS had me thinking you were yelling at me.
Enjoy the rest of your weekend.
Oh yeah... I read your trading plan today. I did not know you were an Arizona Guy! thats great! I love the west coast. Lord willing I will be back to Nevada in a couple of years.

What are you learning to let go?

If you always do what you have always done you will always get what you have always gotten.
Celebrate because you executed your edge. Not because you won.
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  #1303 (permalink)
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Patrick S View Post
thanks for the detailed reply. I was not trying to school you. I was just offering my 2cents. Maybe I just mis read your reply. The words you wrote in CAPS had me thinking you were yelling at me.
Enjoy the rest of your weekend.
Oh yeah... I read your trading plan today. I did not know you were an Arizona Guy! thats great! I love the west coast. Lord willing I will be back to Nevada in a couple of years.

What are you learning to let go?

I know you're not schooling me. The caps are for emphasis only. The trading plan, which one, there's been so many, none of them followed for the most part. My current trading plan is written on a 3x5 card and my money management plan is basically in my head although I took some steps toward a more formal one this morning. Does this make me a bad trader?

I'm learning to let go of the things that cause me stress....like rules, the need to be right, of not wanting to lose, of impatience, rigidity, formality, over thinking, etc.....these are all things that cause me stress and I'm learning day by day to let go....I'm tired of embracing these kind of emotions and ways of thinking. Instead, I want to go with the flow, be flexible, let it work itself out, embrace the probabilities of life and trading. Live easier......

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1304 (permalink)
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Raleigh NC
 
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In the End


PandaWarrior View Post
I know you're not schooling me. The caps are for emphasis only. The trading plan, which one, there's been so many, none of them followed for the most part. My current trading plan is written on a 3x5 card and my money management plan is basically in my head although I took some steps toward a more formal one this morning. Does this make me a bad trader?

I'm learning to let go of the things that cause me stress....like rules, the need to be right, of not wanting to lose, of impatience, rigidity, formality, over thinking, etc.....these are all things that cause me stress and I'm learning day by day to let go....I'm tired of embracing these kind of emotions and ways of thinking. Instead, I want to go with the flow, be flexible, let it work itself out, embrace the probabilities of life and trading. Live easier......

In the end... Trading is not about making money. It is just a natural by - product of learning to let go of the things that cause me stress....like rules, the need to be right, of not wanting to lose, of impatience, rigidity, formality, over thinking, etc..... (copied and pasted your words because I could not have said it better myself)

I will never find perfection in this area however I am getting better at it. Personally I have done it through prayer time, quiet time, excercize, and eating more greens.

You need to take some time to quiet your mind. Think about where you were a year ago and the strides you have made. Celebrate those accomplishments.

If you always do what you have always done you will always get what you have always gotten.
Celebrate because you executed your edge. Not because you won.
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  #1305 (permalink)
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Patrick S View Post
You need to take some time to quiet your mind. Think about where you were a year ago and the strides you have made. Celebrate those accomplishments.

If my mind gets any quieter, I'll be asleep

Seriously though, you mentioned the nutri bullet in your thread. How do you like that thing? I'm thinking of giving it to my family as a Christmas present.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1306 (permalink)
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PandaWarrior View Post
...Price action obeys no rules. And no rules you make up to contain it will help...

I have a different opinion on this. Price action is conditioned by the fear and greed of the participants which materialises in recognisable pattern. What you want to develop over time as you gain experience is a set of heuristic rules to help you navigate within this dangerous and chaotic landscape. Unlike algorithms, heuristic rules do not guarantee optimal, or even feasible solutions and are often used with no theoretical guarantee.

Heuristic rules are good when:

-you have to make a spur-of-the-moment decision OR
-you have limited information and cannot obtain more OR
-the decision is not that important in the grand scheme of things.

A heuristic rule is about decision making or trying to make a good decision based upon what little information is available right now.

As a trader the objective is to develop our own set of heuristic rules. This will be your greatest achievement. When you come to a point where you think there is no rule that can contain price action then it is because you have become unaware of all the rules of thumb that are at play in your head. Most people will just say, that is the experience gained over the years that makes me a profitable trader

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  #1307 (permalink)
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I can accept this modification of my theory.


trendisyourfriend View Post
I have a different opinion on this. Price action is conditioned by the fear and greed of the participants which materialises in recognisable pattern. What you want to develop over time as you gain experience is a set of heuristic rules to help you navigate within this dangerous and chaotic landscape. Unlike algorithms, heuristic rules do not guarantee optimal, or even feasible solutions and are often used with no theoretical guarantee.

Heuristic rules are good when:

-you have to make a spur-of-the-moment decision OR
-you have limited information and cannot obtain more OR
-the decision is not that important in the grand scheme of things.

A heuristic rule is about decision making or trying to make a good decision based upon what little information is available right now.

As a trader the objective is to develop our own set of heuristic rules. This will be your greatest achievement. When you come to a point where you think there is no rule that can contain price action then it is because you have become unaware of all the rules of thumb that are at play in your head. Most people will just say, that is the experience gained over the years that makes me a profitable trader


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1308 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Posts: 628 since May 2012
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Nutri Bullet


PandaWarrior View Post
If my mind gets any quieter, I'll be asleep

Seriously though, you mentioned the nutri bullet in your thread. How do you like that thing? I'm thinking of giving it to my family as a Christmas present.

I have been drinking them for about a month now.
The plumbing is flowing much better and I have more energy.
Great product! It is everything they say it is.
Very Easy to clean.
It is fun to concoct different drinks.
We Typically use frozen fruit along with Kayle or Spinich. Napolea cactus Juice, Carats, Coconut milk, bananas, water, ice.
I feel great!
Well Today I did not feel it. Maybe because I have not mixed myself one for the past 2 days. That is generally when I really notice a difference. When I have not had one for a couple of days.

If you always do what you have always done you will always get what you have always gotten.
Celebrate because you executed your edge. Not because you won.
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  #1309 (permalink)
Elite Member
In the heat
 
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Posts: 3,155 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,306 given, 13,250 received

Been super busy away from trading. Lesson this last week. Don't trade seriously if you are distracted. I goofed around this last week while really focusing on another project. No winning days was the result. Fortunately, it was all small ball so no real damage done. But still the lesson is quite clear, focus on trading or don't trade.

Next week, I am blanking out the other project for about an hour a day, probably 5:30 or 6:00 my time for around an hour and then the trading platform is going to be turned off. My goals for next week are to simply be profitable. Looking for around 20-40 ticks average if possible in as few trades as possible.

I expect this project to last at least through December and possibly early January. Until then, I expect this schedule to continue.


Cheers.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1310 (permalink)
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Quoting 
Don't trade seriously if you are distracted.

Roger that. Lost big time yesterday (Friday afternoon) in a trade while running errands, took the rest of the trading week to gain half of it back

Edited to add: I thought losing that big was no longer a possibility. Considering printing the chart with the trade in sections large enough to cover the wall behind my trading desk as a permanent fixture.


Last edited by bnichols; December 16th, 2012 at 03:57 AM.
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