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The PandaWarrior Chronicles
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The PandaWarrior Chronicles

  #1291 (permalink)
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Good perception of not having excessive expectations for the chart your trading. I completely agree with not setting a profit on each trade and rather do something consistent over and over as long as the trade is well managed.

Nice last trade by the way. Very clean with great execution. I enjoy your journal.

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  #1292 (permalink)
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1293 (permalink)
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PandaWarrior View Post
Some bad mexican food last night...bad mojo this morning......argggg.......

Still, managed to get the trade on before real trouble set in......it came back took me at BE, and then I remembered my thought process from the other day and said to myself, the premise is not over, just buy it, so I did and then back to dealing with Moctezuma.

In between trips to the facilities, took a look at the daily, figured stops for the shorts were in the 89.65 -89.70 range. So waited around to see what would happen there. Sure enough, volume started picking up, the sell orders were absorbed and price shot up past those prices. By then I knew my target would be reached so just waited patiently while the opening drive momentum carried me toward my target.

After just a few minutes, I had my 50 ticks and done for the day. I did get long a bit later after another trip to visit Moctezuma for 10 ticks for a total of 60 ticks today....


Hi Pandawarrior,

How are you determining where stops would be?

Cheers

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  #1294 (permalink)
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begeegs View Post
Hi Pandawarrior,

How are you determining where stops would be?

Cheers

Just basically looking at the chart and noticing where it looks logical. Nothing more...

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1295 (permalink)
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PandaWarrior View Post
Just basically looking at the chart and noticing where it looks logical. Nothing more...

For clarity, on the latest chart trade that you showed, where would that be?

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  #1296 (permalink)
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monpere View Post
For clarity, on the latest chart trade that you showed, where would that be?

I think I was talking about the daily chart when I mentioned the stop thing. On my trading chart, I don't really care where they are as I assume there are so many different levels where people put stops that on my 250 tick chart, it doesn't really matter.

On that particular day, I noted those levels in my post. 99% of the time, I don't worry about it. I care about where my stops would be and that changes on nearly every trade.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1297 (permalink)
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PandaWarrior View Post
I think I was talking about the daily chart when I mentioned the stop thing. On my trading chart, I don't really care where they are as I assume there are so many different levels where people put stops that on my 250 tick chart, it doesn't really matter.

On that particular day, I noted those levels in my post. 99% of the time, I don't worry about it. I care about where my stops would be and that changes on nearly every trade.

I was asking about where you actually put your stops on the specific trades you showed on your last chart. I only think of trades in terms of R-Multiples, so I can't really get a full understanding of trades unless I know what the risk was.


Last edited by monpere; December 7th, 2012 at 06:13 PM.
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  #1298 (permalink)
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monpere View Post
I was asking about where you actually put your stops on the specific trades you showed on your last chart. I only think of trades in terms of R-Multiples, so I can't really get a full understanding of trades unless I know what the risk was.

Because of the way I trade which is mostly momentum driven, I'm expecting price to go my way pretty quick, I don't care if it goes my way for a number of ticks and pulls back but I don't want it to fail immediately. This means I often can use the entry bar for my stop. However, assuming the swing isn't to big, say not more than 20-25 ticks away, I'll use that. After that, I try to wait for the next pull back along with a higher high pattern before I move my stop to break even or perhaps behind that new pullback area.

I get a reasonable number of trades where the entry bar is plenty. Other times it needs the swing. To be fair, I often wing it on this, depends on how price is moving. If its honoring the swings, I may go with that, if the bars are strong, the tape is moving decent, then the bar may be all thats necessary.

There is no fixed stop, and no fixed rule on where I put them. I know my stops regardless of where they are, will probably be in the middle of someone else's HTF swing pattern. I am after all trading a smallish chart. Therefore I don't get to excited about it. If the trade isn't doing what I thought it should, I just get out anyway.

By the way, based on your comment in @Patricks thread, I downloaded Van Tharpe's book and read the section on R Multiples. Its basically the risk in ticks X the dollar amount per tick X the number of lots = 1R. This means your risk is always defined as a dollar amount and your position size varies and your R multiple is a measure of how much money your trades return for every dollar risked. I like this thinking and yet I also find myself liking the idea of fixed sizing and only taking trades that meet the 1R value based on the fixed size and the dollar amount you're willing to risk at that lot size. Basically the same thing I suppose. The idea being you trade fixed size, add lots once you meet some equity delta threshold, rinse and repeat.

Anyway, I've done both and find I can trade within both parameters. Either way is better than winging it.

Long winded answer to a short question.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1299 (permalink)
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I get that


PandaWarrior View Post
In my spare time (rare) I am thinking about the idea that there are no real rules in trading.

Basically, if you think its long, buy it. Doesn't really matter where. If you think its short, sell it. Any price will do....the only real caveat is this: Where are you wrong and can you handle the risk if you buy or sell right this second?

If you can, take the trade, if not, wait for a better price or some sort of confirmation of your premise. Or even if you can handle the risk and you want to wait for a better price or the same level of confirmation, that's ok as well. Just know where you're wrong.

Second part of the random rules is this: Make sure you either win more than you lose or at the minimum, your winners are bigger than your losers by enough to offset the losers and still make a profit.

Last bit is this, I think the place where I am wrong is often not where I think it is or worse, where I want it to be.

Something to think about.

I'm thinking that's about it.

I get that line of thinking.. Its called intuitive and it comes from many hours of watching the same chart. I believe in it and it holds some value.
Somthing else to think about is... What are you going to hold onto when the wind blows? I mean, when your account is starting to sputter and your wondering if this method is really any good. How are you going to look back on your trades and say Yup I would take that one again. All day long I would take it again.
Your rules are there to create a concrete foundation. What are you going to Anchor to when the wind blows.
Another thing to consider is the Odds a trade is going to take you to profit Vs. The correct stop you should place. Think about this.
Holy Crap I know this thing will pay me at least 12 but my stop is 24. Well lets see... Do I take it based off of intuition or do I have three good reasons to take this trade. What are the Odds I will get paid? Well in order to calulate those odds you better have three good reasons. So You are back to a combination of rules and intuition.
I am just sharing with you my line of thinking. Not actually offering advice.

I totally agree with the statement in regards to how much are you will to lose on this intuitive trade. If that stop is 34 tics away and all the rules say that the odds are good, it will pay.... I must still look at it and say.. I might lose 34 tics on this trade. Am I willing to give back that much?
How about 24 tic loss for a 10 tic gain. Can I handle that?

What I am trying to say is - Sometimes the risk does always meet the reward. Following a set a rules will justify taking a trade with a lower reward than the risk.

I believe in intuitive trading. When I am in the Zone I can kill it. In sim on market replay at 20x speed of course. but I still kill it. LOL

If you always do what you have always done you will always get what you have always gotten.
Celebrate because you executed your edge. Not because you won.
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  #1300 (permalink)
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Patrick S View Post
I get that line of thinking.. Its called intuitive and it comes from many hours of watching the same chart. I believe in it and it holds some value.
Somthing else to think about is... What are you going to hold onto when the wind blows? I mean, when your account is starting to sputter and your wondering if this method is really any good. How are you going to look back on your trades and say Yup I would take that one again. All day long I would take it again.
Your rules are there to create a concrete foundation. What are you going to Anchor to when the wind blows.

The wind blows all the time. There will always be losers. The point is this, you just keep going. Price action obeys no rules. And no rules you make up to contain it will help. The only thing you control is how much risk you take per trade, per day, per week, per month. Thats it. Once in a trade, you get to control where you exit, after that, the wind blows where it wants.


Patrick S View Post
Another thing to consider is the Odds a trade is going to take you to profit Vs. The correct stop you should place. Think about this.
Holy Crap I know this thing will pay me at least 12 but my stop is 24. Well lets see... Do I take it based off of intuition or do I have three good reasons to take this trade. What are the Odds I will get paid? Well in order to calulate those odds you better have three good reasons. So You are back to a combination of rules and intuition.
I am just sharing with you my line of thinking. Not actually offering advice.

Exactly how do you KNOW a trade will pay you at least 12 ticks? IF you actually KNOW this, then who cares how big the stop is. The stop could be 10,000 ticks if you KNOW you will be paid 12 ticks. You should bet the maximum size you possibly can at this point. The reality is, you have no idea if you will be paid at all let alone how much. The only thing you know is how much risk you are taking to find out.

Once in the trade, all the mental calculations about what the risk reward ratio is goes out the window. Understanding that every entry is basically a random event and that any profit or loss you end up with is also random for the specific trade is key to understanding these so called R:R ratios are meaningless once you enter. You can plan, you can anticipate and you can execute based on that plan and you should do these things, but once that is done, its random and you should never put more weight on it than that. Over time, you will see a trend or an edge emerge, that is what you place your trust in.


Patrick S View Post
I totally agree with the statement in regards to how much are you will to lose on this intuitive trade. If that stop is 34 tics away and all the rules say that the odds are good, it will pay.... I must still look at it and say.. I might lose 34 tics on this trade. Am I willing to give back that much?
How about 24 tic loss for a 10 tic gain. Can I handle that?

The rules say the odds are good it will pay? Really, what or whose rules? What odds, how do the rules know this? Isn't it true that trading is a losers game meaning you will more than likely have more losers than winners? I know this to be true so how can rules know what the odds are you will get paid?

The point is this, you have three choices in trading, buy, sell or do nothing aka SOH (sit on hands). All three are an opinion. There are no wrong opinions. One mans buy is another mans sell. Both believe they are right in that moment. If you choose to sit out of that transaction, that is also correct. Its not complicated, either buy or sell based on your belief. Control your risk by knowing up front how much you are willing to bet in order to find out if your opinion was correct. Once in the trade, you constantly reevaluate your opinion, you either SOH which is an affirmation you are still correct in your opinion, or you buy and sell to change your mind about your opinion. Thats it. Nothing more. The market (which is nothing more than thousands of other people with an opinion they act on) doesn't care about my rules, my money or my indicators. Those are only constructs to help me visualize and contextualize market movement into something I think I can understand.


Patrick S View Post
What I am trying to say is - Sometimes the risk does always meet the reward. Following a set a rules will justify taking a trade with a lower reward than the risk.

I believe in intuitive trading. When I am in the Zone I can kill it. In sim on market replay at 20x speed of course. but I still kill it. LOL

I think market replay at any speed faster than real time is useless. It does NOT prepare you for the patience required to win.

I have two basic rules, how to enter and to a lessor extent, how to exit. After that its all risk control. The exit is something I doubt will ever be fixed in my brain or anyone else's unless you are a straight scalper looking for a fixed number of ticks per trade and you either get it or you don't. So I do both, I exit at a fixed number sometimes and others I let it run depending on what I think it might do. I am right and wrong on both most of the time.

I'm learning to let go.............

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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