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The PandaWarrior Chronicles


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The PandaWarrior Chronicles

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  #1201 (permalink)
Paige
Gainesville, Florida, United S
 
 
Posts: 66 since Dec 2010
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Any amount that you are currently ahead -- regardless of how much of this amount is still open -- is 100% yours.

Any amount that an open position moves against you is a loss --- again, 100% yours.


Trades which you have previously closed (whether it be a few minutes ago or a few years ago) cannot alter this.

Once you are "ahead money" -- it is yours. Just as much *yours* as the money you originally put at risk when you opened the position. As far as I know, it carries equal buying power throughout the world.

This is the same silly notion as the guy who walks into a casino and throws a $100 bill on a Blackjack table --- wins the hand and then tries to convince himself that he is playing with "house money" until he loses $100.

Sorry to burst your bubble, Charlie, but if you lose $100 after that first win --- you've lost $100 of *your* money.

If believing this is not the case makes him feel confident, irrestible to women and positively strokes his psychology -- who am I to argue.

Peace,
Paige

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  #1202 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Paige View Post
Any amount that you are currently ahead -- regardless of how much of this amount is still open -- is 100% yours.

I hate to say it but unless you bank "open" profit and have a stop that is at least BE or better, an open trade is simply vapor. Anything not banked or locked in is simply "potential" profit.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1203 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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See answers in italics


Big Mike View Post
@PandaWarrior, I was wondering if you would be willing to answer these questions. I am copying the questions from a series of interviews from Embrace The Trend:


1) How long have you been trading? I've been interested in the markets since I was a little kid. I quit my first job because they said I was to young to particpate in the 401K plan they had. But as far as trading goes, I started about 3 years ago.



2) What style of trading / investing do you practice (technically driven, fundamental, systematic, a combination etc)? 100% technical. I ignore news during the trading day and rarely look at it after.


3) How do you feel when a trade goes against you? Most of the time, I feel more or less calm. But in the beginning, I sweated bullets.


4) How do you feel when a trade goes for you? Most of the time, I feel more or less calm. But in the beginning, I sweated bullets.


5) How have these feelings changed over your trading career? (Can you recall how you originally used to feel and elaborate on how this has changed over time?) Its only changed by building confidence in what I am doing. The extreme physical reaction to being in live trade was due mostly to me simply guessing about what I was trying to do. I don't think I'll ever completely eliminate the nervousness of trading. I just want to lessen its impact on how I trade.


6) Do you have any practices that you do away from the trading screen to help you mentally and emotionally handle trading? I never look at charts on the weekend. Sunday night I get ready by reviewing a few things. I spend a lot of time reading non trading related stuff. My wife and I are wanders at heart and so if we can't travel, we plan travel or watch travel related films or TV. My faith is also important to me and I rely on it for the more difficult periods of life.


7) Have you always done this? No, I spent 24/7 looking at charts for the first 2.5 years and stressing over why it wasn't as easy as the hype made it sound!


8) If not, how have you learnt to deal with the feelings that come up when trading?


9) Can you describe a time in your trading life which really rammed home the point that so much of trading comes down to psychological factors? I've always known it, but it was rammed home once when I was reviewing my original thread here on futures.io (formerly BMT) and seeing how nice some of the "methods" I came up with or borrowed from others looked. I realized then everything works for somebody. The missing component was mental. This was further driven home when I watched a documentary about professional blackjack players and how they approached the business of gambling.


10) If you could give aspiring traders one piece of advice about emotionally handling the market what would it be? I would suggest that getting to the emotional realization that trading has little to do with mechanics as fast as possible is paramount. There is a gap between the head knowledge that trading is mental and the emotional buyin that is required to focus on it. The only way to accomplish this is trading live money. I recommend trading micro forex to do this and gradually increasing size until you are playing with something approaching the kind of money you trade in futures. This is not the route I took but I didn't know any better either. In hindsight, this makes the most sense. My brother is doing it this way and is experiencing some success. He did trade live money in the futures but to his credit, realized it was to intense for him at that point.

Mike


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1204 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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Awesome, thanks Brian.

Mike

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  #1205 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1206 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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Matt will be on futures.io (formerly BMT) Monday, and I'm trying to get Michael on early next year

Mike

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  #1207 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Big Mike View Post
Matt will be on futures.io (formerly BMT) Monday, and I'm trying to get Michael on early next year

Mike

I posted so I can have it in my quick summary inventory at the beginning of the thread. Outstanding interview

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1208 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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I had a long bias coming in as all the charts were long. I got my first short signal one the 1M and passed, I had taken several shorts last week that were all BE trades as the HTF were long. Today I simply passed waiting for the longs to show up.

Once the 1M and 3m were short, I kept thinking the 9M would hold at support and presto, the longs would take over and up we would go.

By the time I figured out we were short, I was disappointed I didn't recognize it sooner, I would have been chasing and I just decided to let it go.

Trouble was, on the daily chart I had decided we would go down instead of up in this range. And yet I failed to act on it.

No losers today but no winners either. In fact, no trades at all.

A total and complete screw up today.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1209 (permalink)
 Xav1029 
Tampa, FL
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
I had a long bias coming in as all the charts were long. I got my first short signal one the 1M and passed, I had taken several shorts last week that were all BE trades as the HTF were long. Today I simply passed waiting for the longs to show up.

Once the 1M and 3m were short, I kept thinking the 9M would hold at support and presto, the longs would take over and up we would go.

By the time I figured out we were short, I was disappointed I didn't recognize it sooner, I would have been chasing and I just decided to let it go.

Trouble was, on the daily chart I had decided we would go down instead of up in this range. And yet I failed to act on it.

No losers today but no winners either. In fact, no trades at all.

A total and complete screw up today.

I don't think it's a screw up. Had you actually taken a long trade, then maybe it would be a complete screw up. Tomorrow's another day and on the CL there will be plenty of opportunities. You decided not to chase and shut it down, which in my mind is a victory

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  #1210 (permalink)
 papa15 
Wake Forest, NC
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
I had a long bias coming in as all the charts were long. I got my first short signal one the 1M and passed, I had taken several shorts last week that were all BE trades as the HTF were long. Today I simply passed waiting for the longs to show up.

Once the 1M and 3m were short, I kept thinking the 9M would hold at support and presto, the longs would take over and up we would go.

By the time I figured out we were short, I was disappointed I didn't recognize it sooner, I would have been chasing and I just decided to let it go.

Trouble was, on the daily chart I had decided we would go down instead of up in this range. And yet I failed to act on it.

No losers today but no winners either. In fact, no trades at all.

A total and complete screw up today.

I disagree with you...you do great when all your timeframes are in sync and today they were not...better to be on the sidelines waiting patiently for all things to align than to be writing about how you jumped in before the charts were in synch and you either a. broke even b. lost

Not every day is a trading day.....
Papa15

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1. Avoid the opening chop.
2. Honor stops
3. Ensure reward > risk on all trades
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  #1211 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
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Big Mike View Post
Matt will be on futures.io (formerly BMT) Monday, and I'm trying to get Michael on early next year

Mike

Just curious, but how do you get these guys to appear? Do they ask you, you ask them, are they usually very receptive?

I was wondering, because of all the webinars you have schedualed and the quality is consitently excellent. I have seen other sites webinars where that is decidedly not the case.

For someone that claims not to be a people person, you sure seem to have a lot of fine relationships in the trading community.

I recognise this is Brians thread, but I am pretty sure he dosnt mind me asking.

Vance

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  #1212 (permalink)
 Affliction 
Springfield, MO
 
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papa15 View Post
I disagree with you...you do great when all your timeframes are in sync and today they were not...better to be on the sidelines waiting patiently for all things to align than to be writing about how you jumped in before the charts were in synch and you either a. broke even b. lost

Not every day is a trading day.....
Papa15

I would agree Papa15. Maybe the only question is "What and how many timeframes must agree at once?" BUT keep it simple, they all do or they all do not.

Just my thought though, I could be wrong of course - I am many times.

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  #1213 (permalink)
 sleepy 
London, UK
 
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"The missing component was mental. This was further driven home when I watched a documentary about professional blackjack players and how they approached the business of gambling."

Hi Brian,

What was the name of the documentary you mentioned above?

sleepy

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  #1214 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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sleepy View Post
"The missing component was mental. This was further driven home when I watched a documentary about professional blackjack players and how they approached the business of gambling."

Hi Brian,

What was the name of the documentary you mentioned above?

sleepy

I don't remember, it was on the documentary channel and I picked it up about halfway through. It had the word "roller" in the title. Could be High Roller or something like that. Sorry I'm not more help....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1215 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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papa15 View Post
I disagree with you...you do great when all your timeframes are in sync and today they were not...better to be on the sidelines waiting patiently for all things to align than to be writing about how you jumped in before the charts were in synch and you either a. broke even b. lost

Not every day is a trading day.....
Papa15

At issue here is not my abstaining from longs until they actually set up, the issue is simply I failed to realize it was short until it was much to late to enter without significant risk. Which I was unwilling to take. So perhaps I did well in staying out but I feel like I was just scared to believe it was short and found a way to talk myself out of it.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1216 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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VinceVirgil View Post
Just curious, but how do you get these guys to appear? Do they ask you, you ask them, are they usually very receptive?

I was wondering, because of all the webinars you have schedualed and the quality is consitently excellent. I have seen other sites webinars where that is decidedly not the case.

For someone that claims not to be a people person, you sure seem to have a lot of fine relationships in the trading community.

I recognise this is Brians thread, but I am pretty sure he dosnt mind me asking.

Vance

I don't want to reveal my secrets or trash talk other sites

Lets just say that it has to do with being like minded and respected as well as having very high standards.

Mike

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  #1217 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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And as Brian will attest, I'm also relentless

Brian's upcoming webinar thread, Tuesday October 23rd @ 4:30pm ET:


Mike

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  #1218 (permalink)
 Futures Operator 
New York, NY
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
At issue here is not my abstaining from longs until they actually set up, the issue is simply I failed to realize it was short until it was much to late to enter without significant risk. Which I was unwilling to take. So perhaps I did well in staying out but I feel like I was just scared to believe it was short and found a way to talk myself out of it.

Just like in going long or short, one must first perform the analysis and then make a conscious decision to go or stay flat, so it is also one of the three available positions in the market, and sometimes the correct one. A day in which nothing is lost, is certainly not a complete and total screw up. I could show you plenty of those, and I only wish they looked like BE for the day.

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  #1219 (permalink)
 Futures Operator 
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Big Mike View Post
I dislike being flat when the market is moving, so said another way I like to have at least part of a position on to catch any remaining move.

I don't know what will happen next, so I set myself up to try and capture possible scenarios, with multiple targets.

Please bear in mind, I take one or two trades a day and typically hold the entire day or longer. I am not scalping.

Mike

This makes sense, but it sounds like it's possible that leaving part of the position on to capture different scenarios or runners on big moves, could also work out to better net profit overall if you are going for larger swings. Have you found that this is the case, not only in terms of comfort, but in net profit, for your style as a trader?

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  #1220 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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Big Mike View Post
And as Brian will attest, I'm also relentless

Brian's upcoming webinar thread, Tuesday October 23rd @ 4:30pm ET:


Mike

Quite right. I put @Big Mike off for months.......

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1221 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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Futures Operator View Post
This makes sense, but it sounds like it's possible that leaving part of the position on to capture different scenarios or runners on big moves, could also work out to better net profit overall if you are going for larger swings. Have you found that this is the case, not only in terms of comfort, but in net profit, for your style as a trader?

I can't accurately say what the numbers would be without scaling, because I don't trade that way and have no intention of doing so.

I don't want to derail this thread, so I will just briefly say that I look to the left for clear price action support/resistance, then align that with profile levels, and usually set three targets. I generally try to give the market a wide berth on reaching the targets simply by asking myself "am I wrong on the direction here?". If I am not wrong then I try to stay in the position. As the first and second target are hit, if the market pulls back then I will look to re-enter again on the pullback if I feel it was overdone and we will continue in the original direction.

Again I think it is very important to understand that my smallest chart shows around 6-7 days of action, and that I am not scalping. I don't think you can apply most of what I am saying if you are scalping.

Mike

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  #1222 (permalink)
Paige
Gainesville, Florida, United S
 
 
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Panda,

I was not attempting to be confrontational -- while at the same time I was not stating a matter of opinion, either.

You hold 100% of the rights to all of the value (money) that you are ahead in a live trade.

If you would prefer think of this money as "vapor" -- that's certainly your choice.

But unless you are flat and plan to never initiate another trade --- then by your logic -- any amount that you plan to put at risk on trades in future trades should also be thought of as "vapor".

Peace,
Paige

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  #1223 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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Paige View Post
Panda,

I was not attempting to be confrontational -- while at the same time I was not stating a matter of opinion, either.

You hold 100% of the rights to all of the value (money) that you are ahead in a live trade.

If you would prefer think of this money as "vapor" -- that's certainly your choice.

But unless you are flat and plan to never initiate another trade --- then by your logic -- any amount that you plan to put at risk on trades in future trades should also be thought of as "vapor".

Peace,
Paige

In the sense that you have the RIGHT to close the open trade and take profits, you are correct. But until you do, those profits don't exist.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1224 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
Site Administrator
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Manta, Ecuador
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
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Posts: 50,093 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,554 given, 98,580 received

Registrations are now open for Brian's upcoming webinar on Tuesday @ 4:30 PM ET:

Trading Webinars, Trading Videos - Big Mike Trading Forum

Looking forward to it Brian!

Mike

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  #1225 (permalink)
 tderrick 
Nashville, Tennessee
 
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Big Mike View Post
Registrations are now open for Brian's upcoming webinar on Tuesday @ 4:30 PM ET:

Trading Webinars, Trading Videos - Big Mike Trading Forum

Looking forward to it Brian!

Mike


Woo Hoo !!


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  #1226 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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tderrick View Post
Woo Hoo !!

And here is main discussion thread for the webinar:



See everyone Tuesday

Mike

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 tderrick 
Nashville, Tennessee
 
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I hate it, buddy ... But I simply can not find a sub to cover for me on Tuesday...

It's a big session I can't move so I have to do it... I'll have to catch the recording.

Break a Leg, my friend...

@PandaWarrior = Superstar


AJ
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 PandaWarrior 
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tderrick View Post
I hate it, buddy ... But I simply can not find a sub to cover for me on Tuesday...

It's a big session I can't move so I have to do it... I'll have to catch the recording.

Break a Leg, my friend...

@PandaWarrior = Superstar

AJ, you've heard it all from me before, just without the slides....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 lancelottrader 
Legendary Market Wizard
west palm beach florida usa
 
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Looking forward to your presentation. I've definitely gotten a lot out of your thread.

Failure is not an option
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 tderrick 
Nashville, Tennessee
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
AJ, you've heard it all from me before, just without the slides....



You are a great teacher....help the rest of the crew as you have helped me.


AJ
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 bobarian 
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tderrick View Post


You are a great teacher....help the rest of the crew as you have helped me.

dont sell yourself short Brian.You are one of the few people ive watched cross over to profitability.Your journal is one of the best,imo.Very real.I think it offers other traders a very important perspective:When you finally develop an edge,this is still a difficult business,that requires constant work...

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 PandaWarrior 
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1 Chess Lesson That Can Really Help Profits

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 1LotTrader 
Douglas, United Kingdom
 
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Watched your webinar, lacking the distinct smell of bs, very refreshing, balanced and honest.

Enjoyed it very much.

Bravo mate.

1Lot

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 tderrick 
Nashville, Tennessee
 
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...haven't had a chance to catch the webinar yet, bra....

first chance... Studio is very busy, thank goodness


AJ
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  #1235 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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The original premise is almost always the right one....remember that.

Charts messy today. I normally clean it up before I post it but thought I would post it raw.....the narrative is added after I am done trading.


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 Deucalion 
Calgary, Canada
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
The original premise is almost always the right one....remember that.

Charts messy today. I normally clean it up before I post it but thought I would post it raw.....the narrative is added after I am done trading.


LOL! , boy you are hard on yourself, although the original premise is indeed always right. To give you another perspective, I looked at the same chart, entries are marked. I show this to simply to suggest to let the market show its hand, I was very bullish today but when that 5th wave on the overnight bull trend didn't come, one had to become a little suspect. Like you say - simplicity.


 
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 tderrick 
Nashville, Tennessee
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
The original premise is almost always the right one....remember that.

Charts messy today. I normally clean it up before I post it but thought I would post it raw.....the narrative is added after I am done trading.



I am so learning to embrace staying in the green as long as possible. I am trying to block anything to
do with money from my mind. As you know, I have merely just begun this facet of becoming consistently
profitable.

Great recovery


AJ
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 PandaWarrior 
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tderrick View Post
I am so learning to embrace staying in the green as long as possible. I am trying to block anything to
do with money from my mind. As you know, I have merely just begun this facet of becoming consistently
profitable.

Great recovery

So, along the lines of staying in the green as long as possible, it seems to make sense to stay in the trade until you would rather be in an opposite position. Or as least until you reach some other type of support or resistance you think the market will stop at. Then re-evaluate and perhaps reverse position or be done for the day.

My premise is often a break of a level with confirmation, so why exit until the opposite has happened or the S/R target has been reached?

Something to think about today......

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 PandaWarrior 
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I reached my goals for the day and week so I'm done.

Trade 1 didn't reach target so trailed it out.

Trade 2 made it to my support zone target area where I exited the trade

Trade 3 made it to target zone but I trailed out a bit premature.

Pretty happy with price action today and how I read it. Trade 2 was a bit of a sleeper and took forever to get going but once it did, was pretty forceful in making it to target. Execution on the second long was less than optimum but I as I was pretty close to my goals for the week, I was reluctant to let the trade come back much more in light of the serious selling at the HOD the last time it was visited.

TGIF


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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  #1240 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
I reached my goals for the day and week so I'm done.

Trade 1 didn't reach target so trailed it out.

Trade 2 made it to my support zone target area where I exited the trade

Trade 3 made it to target zone but I trailed out a bit premature.

Pretty happy with price action today and how I read it. Trade 2 was a bit of a sleeper and took forever to get going but once it did, was pretty forceful in making it to target. Execution on the second long was less than optimum but I as I was pretty close to my goals for the week, I was reluctant to let the trade come back much more in light of the serious selling at the HOD the last time it was visited.

TGIF


Well, you had the mojo working today.

What did you do last night? Windex the crystal ball?

What is nice about your chart is that its a long, a short and a long, right at or right near the price action breaks.

That chart is the very definition of certainty and commitment.

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 PandaWarrior 
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VinceVirgil View Post
Well, you had the mojo working today.

What did you do last night? Windex the crystal ball?

No, I drank to much coke, stayed up late goofing off with sound equipment and slept terrible. Pretty tired this morning actually. I just like how clean the chart is, how easy it is to see levels and how much easier trading is once you give yourself permission to be wrong.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1242 (permalink)
 tderrick 
Nashville, Tennessee
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
No, I drank to much coke, stayed up late goofing off with sound equipment and slept terrible. Pretty tired this morning actually. I just like how clean the chart is, how easy it is to see levels and how much easier trading is once you give yourself permission to be wrong.


Permission to be wrong..... yessssss I like that


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  #1243 (permalink)
 Cashish 
Miami FL USA
 
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@PandaWarrior

PW, just wanted to stick my head in here and let you know how much I enjoyed your webinar. I thought it was very well done and very informative, I'll definitely view it again, great job.

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 cmmichaels 
London England
 
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@PandaWarrior

Really really great webinar thank you and big Mike for putting it together

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  #1245 (permalink)
 emini_Holy_Grail 
Dallas,TX
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
I reached my goals for the day and week so I'm done.

Trade 1 didn't reach target so trailed it out.


Hi Panda
can you share what trail parameters you use - do you start Trail after 6 or 8 ticks? do you exit on BE+1 (BreakEven+1)

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 PandaWarrior 
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emini_Holy_Grail View Post
Hi Panda
can you share what trail parameters you use - do you start Trail after 6 or 8 ticks? do you exit on BE+1 (BreakEven+1)

There are 4 main methods of trailing that I use.

1. The first is also the least effective. I call it the panic mode. Basically I trail out or manually close after X number of ticks because I think price is stalling or pulling back on me while its still in the kill zone. This rarely is the correct thing to do. It also comes into play after price has gone in my favor quite a bit but not to the overall target. I will bail out manually if I become afraid I might give it all back. This rarely is the case.

2. Go BE once price has gone 1XR and taken my first scale out. This results in my BE on the second position necessitating a re-entry if I feel the trade is still valid. This does work but its not optimum.

3. Leave stop at original location once first target filled at 1XR. This seems to be the overall best option as my win rate for this is very high. If you get stopped out on the second position, your trade is BE overall, a winner and a loser less commissions and slippage.

4. Trail stop behind swings but only after a successful new high or low after a pull back. This is the hardest to do and the most effective. The net effect is that you catch the majority of the move. You basically cut the middle out of the trend move doing this.

Lastly, if price gets within a few ticks of my final target and starts to stall, I may manually close it out. Often times this is also the worst thing to do as price many many times stalls just before my targets as the opposing players come in at those levels. If I just wait, I can usually get the full target. Nevertheless, I will probably continue to trail it real tight once price gets to my target zone.

Hope that answers your question.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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  #1247 (permalink)
 emini_Holy_Grail 
Dallas,TX
 
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thks and appreciate the detail.
I think 4th method seems the best from my experience

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 bobarian 
whitestone, new york
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
So, along the lines of staying in the green as long as possible, it seems to make sense to stay in the trade until you would rather be in an opposite position. Or as least until you reach some other type of support or resistance you think the market will stop at. Then re-evaluate and perhaps reverse position or be done for the day.

My premise is often a break of a level with confirmation, so why exit until the opposite has happened or the S/R target has been reached?

Something to think about today......

a good premise...so easy to close out a winner,without a reason other than being green,then watch it go another 75 ticks.

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 PandaWarrior 
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I shorted a while after the open on sunday evening, got my first scale, then a BE only to see it go all the way to my original target over night. However, I needed the BE to protect me since I was not going to be up to monitor the trade. So it was a successful trade even though I didn't get all the trade had to offer. I thought there might be enough fireworks to grab a quick one last night but I was wrong.

This mornings trades were tempered by the storm and the knowledge the range might be kinda narrow. However, I still took my trades, waited til price got to the first resistance area and trailed out only to see price head on up to the original target area represented by last nights opening price.

I bought again after price held at the support level which had been resistance and was promptly stopped out. Went short after two levels broken, trade stalled at the trend line and I went BE and then got long for enough to get my first scale off and the second position stopped out. Overall, a decent day in terms of profit. A couple of poorly executed trails but nevertheless, I'm happy to finish green.

The target is still open for the last long trade which I did not take. So later on today, I'll stop back by and see how it went but with the storm and all, I think it might require more patience than I have to wait it out.

Cheers



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 PandaWarrior 
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I took a nice break and because I had a bit of time before any real commitments, I decided to just see what happened on the charts.

I got a nice set up for a short, and so I took it. I was doing some stuff around the house, so just set it and forgot it. Well I didn't totally forget it but I did go take care of some stuff around the house and after 30-45 minutes, I came back to see my 1st target filled and a new swing low about to be put in which allowed me to move my stop to BE. After that I went back to my chores and a few minutes before I took off for the day, I checked my trade and my runner's target had been filled. I had set the target at a possible support area which was around 4XR +/- a bit. It ran a bit further of course but no way to tell that ahead of time. I placed my target at what I considered the most logical location for support.

In all fairness, I was really looking to be long today based on what I thought might be support on the daily chart. But the shorts won and so I went with it.



It ended up being a really nice profit day.


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1251 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
I took a nice break and because I had a bit of time before any real commitments, I decided to just see what happened on the charts.

I got a nice set up for a short, and so I took it. I was doing some stuff around the house, so just set it and forgot it. Well I didn't totally forget it but I did go take care of some stuff around the house and after 30-45 minutes, I came back to see my 1st target filled and a new swing low about to be put in which allowed me to move my stop to BE. After that I went back to my chores and a few minutes before I took off for the day, I checked my trade and my runner's target had been filled. I had set the target at a possible support area which was around 4XR +/- a bit. It ran a bit further of course but no way to tell that ahead of time. I placed my target at what I considered the most logical location for support.

In all fairness, I was really looking to be long today based on what I thought might be support on the daily chart. But the shorts won and so I went with it.



It ended up being a really nice profit day.


I saw it it the way you did. But I found the CL slow today. Actually, my chart looks a lot like yours.

You did chores...I went out for a couple of hours.

Very nice work today.

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 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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Today I am going to detail my thought process a bit more in terms of what I was thinking and how the trades developed. Today was of course another day where the storm in NY affected CL trading. I assumed it would be a narrow type day with very low volume so didn't get to excited about big targets.

Trade sequence # 1.

Trade conditions. Price had just completed a pull back after a strong rally overnight. This is my least favorite set up in terms of the trade having runner potential. I assume the trade has really already run its course and this kind of pull back often leads to disappointment in terms of trend continuation. I got to the computer a few minutes after the lowest risk option had already happened. I am ok with taking the higher risk trade, I just need to acknowledge the extra risk and make sure its within my risk parameters. There were several possible entry locations available for both an initial entry and a scale in entry. Due to the storm and anticipated narrow range, I elected to stick with the initial entry.

This trade took a long time to mature. A normal day may have printed the same number of bars but it would have happened much faster. There was a lot of heat on this trade and I considered getting out at BE a couple of times. However, the premise of the trade was never violated and I left the trade alone. Eventually though, I lost patience and closed it at BE at one of the many times it gave me the opportunity.

I kicked myself for the exit and got back in, this trade also ended in BE after quite a while. I finally took the actual break out which ended in a full stop out.

That was how I handled the opportunity represented by #1

Trade sequence # 2.

This trade was more like what I like to see. A new high put in with an immediate failure to hold support. I also like shorts better as it seems like gravity makes the trade go faster most of the time. For me, this trade requires confirmation or you end up with an Al Brooks one tick wonder that ends in a stop out. So I wait for the confirmation and attempt to either take the break of the confirmation bar or perhaps once its broken, a better price while the next bar pulls back inside the confirmation bar. Mostly I just take the break of the confirmation bar. This trade did what trades are supposed to do, go quickly in your direction at least enough to get your first scale off and provide you with a risk free trade at that point.

In terms of targets, we were above the 50% level for the globex market which typically means bullish sentiment is in order. This translates into a target that is less than 4XR. I don't really care about the ultimate RR as long as I have a decent shot at getting my first scale off and then perhaps see if the support holds or collapses. In this case, support held as represented by the long narrow green box. I trailed my stop on the runner right behind the blue bar right at the bottom. I wanted to give the trade a little bit of room to perhaps break down more without giving to much back if I was right about support holding.

BIG PINK BOX SEQUENCE.

I got short in this area with the thought that perhaps I had misread the short price action and got out to soon. However, just as price got to the bottom and printed the blue bar, I recognized that the swing highs had been broken and a higher low looked imminent. I closed at BE on this trade.

Trade sequence # 3.

After the higher low was put in, I thought about getting long after the swing high had a close above it. Typically I would take the break of the confirmation bar just like the short in #2. However, I decided to wait a bit and see if there was a second mouse opportunity. Sure enough, a lower risk opportunity presented and I was able to get my first scale off pretty easily. However, my runner ended in BE after quite a while as my premise of a HOD target failed.

By this time, I needed to be somewhere so I quit trading at that point.

My net for the day was a full stop out, 2 break even trades, one full trade completed along with a 1st scale plus a BE. Net dollars was profitable within my "daily average" goal. A bit less to be sure but close enough.

Not the best day for trading I admit, but in terms of price action, it looked just like all the other days. This type of price action is very typical and can be repeated over and over again. I realize there are more than one way to trade this price action and my way is probably less than optimum in terms of risk but its what I can easily see and so I go with what I can see.

For the most part today, my emotions were in check. However at the very beginning of the day, I was more nervous than normal for some reason. This soon passed and I was able to process price action rationally.

Tomorrow, I am looking for a directional move away from this area. Either a full on collapse or a nice rally away from what I perceive as support on the daily chart. This is the 5th day in this area so it appears about time to make a move one direction or another. I suspect it will be a rally and create a pull back on the daily chart.

My chart is pretty messy but its the way it looks once I'm done trading. I add the circles and numbers post trading but the S/R and trend lines are real time.

I think from now on, I will present my journal as more of a teaching tool than a personal journey journal. Not that I am a great trader and every one should listen to me but more from the sense that the teacher always learns more than the student. This journal provides an opportunity to present my charts as a teaching tool knowing I will get more out of it than the "students". I've made hundreds if not thousands of presentations and most of those involved some element of teaching. This is the first time I've considered doing it in written form. We'll see how it goes. Of course teaching involves more than just an entry method, it involved money management, risk control and dealing with emotions. These might be beyond the scope of what I can do here but at least for now, I can work on showing price action and how I reacted to it.



Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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  #1253 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
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PandaWarrior View Post

I think from now on, I will present my journal as more of a teaching tool than a personal journey journal. Not that I am a great trader and every one should listen to me but more from the sense that the teacher always learns more than the student. This journal provides an opportunity to present my charts as a teaching tool knowing I will get more out of it than the "students". I've made hundreds if not thousands of presentations and most of those involved some element of teaching. This is the first time I've considered doing it in written form. We'll see how it goes. Of course teaching involves more than just an entry method, it involved money management, risk control and dealing with emotions. These might be beyond the scope of what I can do here but at least for now, I can work on showing price action and how I reacted to it.


Great idea.

I agree with your teaching assessment whole heartedly.

My son wanted help with his golf game, so last year he turned to me to help him, as I have a lot of golf experience. In the last few years, I have really backed away from the game, so I am out of practice.

IN the course of showing my son proper technigue, grip, alighnment, stance, posture, takeaway, followthrough etc, I reinforced the fundementals over a few weeks again and again, with him, and, in the process, with me.

The benefit...my game improved, rekindled those fundementals in me, and now, my game is better than it has been in years. Not as good as when I was competative, but at least I am not stinking up the course.

And, it was very enjoyable. I was able to show my son what I love about the game, and my enthusiasm rubbed off on him, and resulted in further encouragement for me...motivated me to help him more...or at least think of ways I could help him improve further.

I dont play much more...but now I play a lot better than I have been when I do play. And thats enough to keep me interested in playing more than I have in recent years.

Lokking forward to reading your posts.

Vance

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 bobarian 
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VinceVirgil View Post
Great idea.

I agree with your teaching assessment whole heartedly.

My son wanted help with his golf game, so last year he turned to me to help him, as I have a lot of golf experience. In the last few years, I have really backed away from the game, so I am out of practice.

IN the course of showing my son proper technigue, grip, alighnment, stance, posture, takeaway, followthrough etc, I reinforced the fundementals over a few weeks again and again, with him, and, in the process, with me.

The benefit...my game improved, rekindled those fundementals in me, and now, my game is better than it has been in years. Not as good as when I was competative, but at least I am not stinking up the course.

And, it was very enjoyable. I was able to show my son what I love about the game, and my enthusiasm rubbed off on him, and resulted in further encouragement for me...motivated me to help him more...or at least think of ways I could help him improve further.

I dont play much more...but now I play a lot better than I have been when I do play. And thats enough to keep me interested in playing more than I have in recent years.

Lokking forward to reading your posts.

Vance

looking forward to it!

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 PandaWarrior 
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From a teaching perspective some would say not to show the mistakes. But for me, I am looking for the mistakes to learn from. I made the same mistake twice although in the spirit of just following price action, it could be argued they were just legit trades that failed.

Today I was looking to be long if at all possible as early as possible. However, I woke up to the tail end of a rally that happened overnight and so was faced with either an early short or wait for the longs to set up.

Trades 1,2 and 3

I decided to go with the shorts for the time being, second guessed myself, got out at BE, took a long, got a full stop out and reversed at the stop position. This trade is the mirror image of the short from yesterday in that it happened after a nice rally and the short went to the 50% globex level and reversed. I took profit at my first scale out and then trailed behind the swings. I would have had more profit had I exited at the 50% level but as a trader, I am trying to learn how to simply stay in the trade until I would rather be out or rather be in the market opposite of current position. This netted me enough to be profitable on the day.

Trade 4

This was what I thought would be the long I was looking forward to as the directional move away from support. I took the trade, got my first scale, and waited to see if it would finally break and run. No dice as I got trailed out.

Trade 5

Same trade as trade 3. 1st scale off, trailed out at swing high break.

Trade 6

In the heat of battle, I made a mistake here. I assumed it was short and to be fair, it did look like a decent short but in light of the bounce once more at support and my overall long bias, I should have been looking for longs here. Nevertheless, I took the stop like a man.

Trade 7

Finally, the ONE. There were a couple of opportunities to get long here once the levels were broken. I got my first scale off with a large second target for the runner, set the stop to BE and took my daughter to school. When I returned, found I had a break even trade after price had went almost to the HOD and then reversed. My trail stop would have gotten me out with a decent profit on this but I accepted the possibility of a BE trade when I walked out the door.

Trade 8

Another mistake almost identical to trade 6 with the same results. However this time I recognized what I perceived as a stop run after the previous rally. There was a fake long signal, a fake short signal and a V turn from the support area.

Trade 9

This was the one. I did not get my trade set up the way I like to see it but it do what I thought it should do if it was going to be long, just looked different than what I thought it should look like. So I took the trade, got my first scale off and extended my target out past the HOD. At this point, I am starting to run short on time, all my previous shots at the directional runner had failed and so even though I thought it would perhaps really run this time, I went with the fixed RR target and got that.

This last trade put me into my acceptable range for profit each day and got me within 10% of my weekly goal. Of course price ran much further but mentally I was finished after 9 trade sequences. At the end of next week, I should be adding a third position to the strategy but I need to make enough money to justify adding the extra risk.

This would allow me to take off a position at the obvious areas of support/resistance or fixed RR and let a smaller portion run if it breaks like it did today.

Lessons from today.

As always, stick to the trading plan. Follow the signals, be ready to bail if the trade looks weak. You can always re-enter. Be patient with winners but understand the patience might result in a BE trade after having been up enough to satisfy your trading requirements for the day. Keep swinging the bat. I was certain price would rally today, especially after I saw yesterday's high broken and I kept taking the longs. The shorts I was watching really close for signs of failure because I knew at some point today, I wanted to be long for a runner. Keeping the losses small meant I could take each trade as they presented themselves.



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 PandaWarrior 
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I started the day prepared for more upside movement after yesterdays break above resistance. Instead, it was full on failure to the short side.

Trade 1

I have what I consider to be "inside" levels. These are intermediate levels that occur in a move. #1 is a demonstration of this. Its basically a failure to continue a trend after a pull back but a new full trend is not established yet. Many times these do lead to new trends being established but not always. In this case, I took the short, exited at 1XR +BE. The new short trend was not established and I wasn't really expecting one to develop either. So I wanted to be out quick if it went against me. Price had already pulled back to the 50% globex and I was not really sure about this so best to exit fast.

Trade 2

Trade 2 did what I thought it should do as possible trend continuation. It hit the trend line, broke the descending trendline, it cleared some congestion, above the MA, etc. All decent signs. This trade resulted in a full stop out.

Trade 3

Broken trend line to the down side, broken support with confirmation, failed long. All good signs. At this point, I reversed my bias from long to short and identified a potential target as the LOD. This area had already shown significant support over the last few days and I was pretty sure we'd go there again. However, do to my long bias on the higher time frame, I gave no thought to the idea it might break through there and continue to sell of the way it did. Therefore I was unprepared to extend my target zones out any further than the LOD. This trade went off as planned with the obvious exception that I exited way to early. However, I did exit this trade per my plan and I allowed the trade to play out fully instead of closing it when it stalled at various support levels.

At this point, I stepped away for a while to savor my victory.

Trade 4

Price found some support and created what should have been my short runner exit point. Basically a possible reversal to the upside with a swing high broken and a minor trend line created. Of course this ultimately failed but the set up was there and would have qualified as both an exit for the short and an entry for the longs. I did take this as a long, 1st scale achieved and second one at BE. That failed and at that point, I called it a day. Trading small size like I do, these two trades combined made for a decent day today. Of course there was a short signal right after that but I had to leave the office and so my trading day was over.


In hindsight, I suppose I should have allowed the runner unlimited room to run. When I can add another position, I think I will reserve that one as the home run option. I find I often get the 1st scale along with an intermediate one somewhere between 1XR and infinity. Mark Douglas recommended always trading with 3 positions that allow for an immediate reward of some kind, a bread and butter trade and then a home run option. On days like to day, that home run would make more than 3-5 regular trades. I am working toward that. Soon I think.


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 indextrader7 
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PandaWarrior View Post
I started the day prepared for more upside movement after yesterdays break above resistance. Instead, it was full on failure to the short side.

Trade 1

I have what I consider to be "inside" levels. These are intermediate levels that occur in a move. #1 is a demonstration of this. Its basically a failure to continue a trend after a pull back but a new full trend is not established yet. Many times these do lead to new trends being established but not always. In this case, I took the short, exited at 1XR +BE. The new short trend was not established and I wasn't really expecting one to develop either. So I wanted to be out quick if it went against me. Price had already pulled back to the 50% globex and I was not really sure about this so best to exit fast.

Trade 2

Trade 2 did what I thought it should do as possible trend continuation. It hit the trend line, broke the descending trendline, it cleared some congestion, above the MA, etc. All decent signs. This trade resulted in a full stop out.

Trade 3

Broken trend line to the down side, broken support with confirmation, failed long. All good signs. At this point, I reversed my bias from long to short and identified a potential target as the LOD. This area had already shown significant support over the last few days and I was pretty sure we'd go there again. However, do to my long bias on the higher time frame, I gave no thought to the idea it might break through there and continue to sell of the way it did. Therefore I was unprepared to extend my target zones out any further than the LOD. This trade went off as planned with the obvious exception that I exited way to early. However, I did exit this trade per my plan and I allowed the trade to play out fully instead of closing it when it stalled at various support levels.

At this point, I stepped away for a while to savor my victory.


Amazing to me that we went through the EXACT same trading day today... both in analysis and in emotion. I had a few failed longs, was in drawdown for the day, then got a massive short winner. I changed my bias to short right when you did. I also took a break and walked around outside after the big short winner. My decision to take a break was more out of emotional necessity than your "savoring of the victory".

Just thought it was really interesting. I was reading this, and it may as well have been my own journal! Keep up the good work. The only thing that was different in our trading today is that you're more selective than me. I try and scalp a lot in between the major moves. Seeing your selectivity inspires me to keep improving my own trading.

 
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 PandaWarrior 
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indextrader7 View Post
The only thing that was different in our trading today is that you're more selective than me. I try and scalp a lot in between the major moves. Seeing your selectivity inspires me to keep improving my own trading.

The longer I trade the more I realize that letting the winners really run is the real key this game. It accomplishes several things.

1) It keeps your winners larger than your losers.
2) It provides a sense of emotional victory that you "caught the big one". If you do let it run, you have a sense of accomplishment.
3) Because you are in a trade for a longer period of time, there is less opportunity to make foolish mistakes by taking trades that may perhaps be less than optimum from a scalping standpoint but are just noise in the larger trend.
4) It can provide opportunities to scale into a move thereby increasing your win in terms of dollars but if done properly, does not increase your risk. (I'm still working on this one.)

I'm sure there are other benefits as well but these are the ones that occur to me right now. All this being said, I'm sure there are those that disagree with me regarding the scalping issue. I used to want to scalp and I do take the smaller targets in the form of 1XR for the first position. But thats just so I can get a risk free trade which allows me to manage it better as it develops. That first target is often but not always filled on the initial thrust so it usually happens quick. Its the longer runner that gives me emotional fits if there is risk involved.

Cheers

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 PandaWarrior 
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I had a loser day yesterday, never really got in sync with what the market was doing. I took my signals but never really got good follow through. 2-3 stops in a row is enough for me. Quit trading a good percentage before my daily stop.

Different story today.

Trade 1

This was a short that set up a few minutes before I got to the charts, there was an opportunity to get the same price as the original set up but I had a long bias and instead of taking the short and trailing out, I opted to wait for a long set up. This was still a good set up to have taken. Target zone would have been previous day's high. (purple dashed line)

Trade 2

Price made it to the support area, the previous HOD, the globex 50% level and just far enough to shake out weaker longs, then it failed to go down any further and the broke the small swing to the upside. I got lucky in that I was able to get a price several ticks better than my normal entry type which helped reduce the risk a bit. It also made it easier to get my first scale as well.

I scaled out twice with a runner for at least 100 ticks. After the final push up, many small bars were printing up there and I didn't like how small the bars were. So I trailed out using the two blue bars back method. This netted me 71 ticks on the final position.

I had planned on adding to the runner after it broke the wedge just before the opening, however, I completely forgot to add it. To bad as that would have added nicely to the totals.

Trade 3

I took a break after trade 2, took out the trash, etc. I got back after the short had set up and wasn't interested in chasing it so I let it go. It was still good for about 30 ticks from that point but I really dislike chasing trades.

As I write this, price is trying to break back to the upside. We will see what it does from here. Regardless, I will not be part of it.


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 PandaWarrior 
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Just in case you missed it, today is the day you get to have a voice in government. Be sure to vote.

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 PandaWarrior 
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Well it looks like it I could have stuck around and had a great day to the long side.....but standing in line for two hours to vote was more important today. There's always tomorrow.

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 PandaWarrior 
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An odd day for me. Pretty bummed about the election combined with a long bias for some reason made me second guess all my short trades even while the chart was screaming short, I still wanted to be long. Even so, I did take the short trades and had a nice day.

Trade 1

I took the short even though I wanted to be long. I got my first scale off quick, BE on the rest. I wanted long and was convinced we were at support on the higher time frames. (Don't ask) Good thing to, the silly bias saved me a stop on the rest of the position.

Trade 2

I had a short to long reversal in here. Net effect was I was down going into the long, I took my first scale and trailed out the rest. Unfortunately, this was also the entry location for the short so was managing the long knowing a short was coming.

Trade 3

Could not pull the trigger here. Having a hard time believing the shorts were actually in control. A look at the Daily chart would have convinced me otherwise but I forgot to check it ahead of time. So I missed this entire sequence. I wanted to chase it and the temptation was very strong. I finally succumbed at the LOD.

Trade 4

I sold the LOD with a level of fear I haven't experienced in a while. Basically I knew I had screwed up the short from #3 and was now more or less gambling it would continue. My only really comfort was I looked at the daily in between 3 and 4. This gave me a small degree of confidence. I got the first scale, went BE and was taken out. I knew better than to go BE but was unwilling to take a loser on what was basically a shot in the dark.

Trade 5

With price at resistance, I finally felt comfortable short. !st scale was achieved and I trailed out in the green box. My target was lower than this but getting close and so I elected to tighten stops as we got closer to my targets. Once I get close, I try to trail 2 bars back, give it some room but not to much. In this case, I was taken out.

At this point, I was pretty much done, I'd make my goal for the day, and wasn't really looking for anything else. I needed to take my kid to school and so just kinda watched while she got ready. Well it took a bit longer than I expected for her to get ready and had an opportunity to watch the chop zone.

There was the lower low, then a higher high, then a higher low, then a lower high. I decided if the higher low was broken, I'd get short.

Trade 6

The higher low was broken, I got short, first scale took a bit to get off, but it did and I started to trail the stop on the rest. First behind the swings even though they were quite small and then once price started getting close to my target, two bars back. I trailed out just as we needed to walk out the door to get my kid to school on time.

Ended up around double my average daily goal which was nice.

All that being said, I royally screwed up the opportunity at #3. This was the short I should have been looking for. The daily chart said short but I failed to look at it today.

Another mistake I made today was failing to scale in. To be fair, this is not a habit at the moment and so I've not trained myself to look for these opportunities. In fact both of my short entries were NOT primary entries, instead they were scale in opportunities off the entry at #3. I could have finished at #5's target zone with three lots instead of one. So while this was a mistake, its one I have spent three years trying not to have to do. In other words, I've done everything I could to be out before a pull back happens and then just find another trade like I did today. Instead on what was pretty certain to be a trend day, I totally forgot to look for scale in's. A three year habit is going to be hard to break I think. However, much progress has been made recently in holding winning trades a lot longer. This feels good.


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 PandaWarrior 
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This morning I got to the computer well before my normal trading start time. The time change has me messed up which usually happens every year when we go back to daylight savings time. Since in AZ, we don't change, my start time moved up an hour but my body clock stays the same, which means a 4:30 wake up without an alarm for a 6:30 start time. I need to use this time better going forward as today I just started trading and the results were less than optimum. Going forward, I'll stay away from the computer until half an hour before the open.

Trade sequence 1

I'm calling it a sequence because for some reason, I did a few trades in here. I saw the descending trend line, ignored it, felt the base being put in but could not get a handle on what I thought price would do. Looking at the daily chart, I wanted to be short, looking at the trading chart, I wanted to be long, so I went both directions more than once. Suffice to say, this did not end well. I haven't done anything like this in a long time which goes to prove you can still make mistakes you thought you've overcome. Finally I went long after it broke above the trend line which obviously failed right away. Looking at the daily chart, I felt that if it failed right there, a good short was coming.

This sequence put me within close proximity of my daily stop.

Trade 2

Once price failed at the high end, I was pretty comfortable taking the short even though I didn't have much room in my stop. I also felt this could in fact be a really long runner, say 2-300 ticks. The gap between the entry and the stop was quite large but the momentum was strong. I had one of those feelings inside that just KNEW price was coming off, how far was anybodies guess but I figured it would be a big one. Based on that, I took off my 1st scale a bit further away, and this took some of the pressure off the rest. I held it through what for me is a deep pull back and then trailed it out at the green zone.

Trade 3

I ignored the long set up at the exit point of trade 2 and waited for the short I felt would be coming. I got in a tad early and had to set through the chop area but I made sure my stop was well out of the way and just waited it out. I should have waited for the real break but fortunately, price never really threatened my stop. Once again, I felt there might be some room to run, so moved first scale out to 50 ticks, I eventually got this but it took longer than I thought and there was an unpleasant pull back in the middle. Fortunately, I had gotten up and went to take care of a few things while this was going on. I came back to see my 50 tick 1st scale out was filled and so I trailed my stop down behind the swings and finally trailed out in the green zone.

These two trades took me from almost stopped out for the day to just a tad over my daily average. I admit the early trading was crap but I got it together enough to erase a bad day. In retrospect, There should have been only 1 and perhaps 2 trades early, a possible short stop out and a long stop out. Instead, I exercised a degree of emotion in there that lead to several smaller stops which taken together equaled more than the two real stops together. Not my best performance. I suppose this is to be expected occasionally and is what a daily max risk is for.

Once again, I did not scale into the winners at the pull back areas. This is a failure to remember instead of a failure to act. I need to figure out a way to do this when the conditions are right.


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 PandaWarrior 
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I bet wrong on the direction today. After the serious rejection and sell off on the 6th followed by an inside day, I was looking for a possible continuation of the shorts.

Daily Chart. I know the support down in the green box had been holding but there was very strong rejection at the top. Looking at it now, the two strong up days set the stage for a long rally as it broke the inside level to the upside. Didn't even see that until today. Crazy.



I postponed my arrival at the charts by an hour today to try and adjust my body clock to the later start for the open out cry session. Funny thing was, a great short set up just as I would have normally gotten to the computer. Ironic.

Trade 1

My trading day began at the very end of the shorts. Price had just come up, briefly touched the swing high and started to come come a bit. I got in, and when price failed to make a new low, I got out at BE.

Trade 2

The idea here is its counter trend, levels are broken, trend lines are broken, support is established and that should be good for a few ticks. For me, this looked like a simple pull back on the down trend and I was willing to give it a go. The pace of tape was slow and since I had a short mentality, I was nervous about being in this to long. So out at BE on this trade.

Trade 3

This is a sequence of trades. This means a short below the level and a reversal at the stop. I rarely do this but I've done it two days in a row now. While this one worked out, there were several things wrong with this sequence. First, I allowed my short bias to get me in the trade to fast. There was no actual signal to go short. That was the first mistake. Second mistake was I should have exited the second I knew I was in early. Third, I took a bit more risk than I should have. In truth, this area should have been a place to add onto the trade from trade #2.

Trade 4

In late here of course, but nevertheless, it was a legit break out trade. I was able to get my first scale off around the globex 50% level which is where I imagined the long rally would fizzle out. I held the final lot to the green zone and trailed it out one bar back as it neared this area and was taken out a few ticks shy of my overall target.

Price then did what I expected it to do, which was fail at the level. So I started looking for shorts.

Trade 5

this looked exactly the way I wanted it to look, level failures, lower highs, lower lows, the whole nine yards. I believe it was an excellent set up which just failed. I exited with a smaller loss than I would have normally because I recognized it was failing.

Trade 6

On the failure of the short, I knew it would probably run up pretty quick and so I just jumped in ala @Al Brooks and I was able to get my first profit position off but that was it. Price eventually failed and i trailed out for a small profit on the second lot.

Trade 7

This once again looked just like a short should look, lower highs, lower lows, broken levels. Once again, this failed. At this point. I was at my daily stop and done for the day.

So on a nice trend day, I lost money. Several factors contributed to this.

1. Overall short bias. While I did trade long, I did so only in the context that I thought it was a pull back and would eventually turn short. This bias enabled me to be really eager to be short and nervous about being long.

2. Trade 2 and 3 had execution errors in them. Trade 2 was moving stop to BE to soon, which had I not done this, Trades 3 and 4 would not have happened at all. Rather with a clear head, they would have been places to add to my long instead of having a losing trade.

I am going to make some revisions to my trading plan next week.

1. Reduce entry size to 1 lot to reduce risk. I've been doing ok with multiples and taking a position off at 1XR, but I think instead, I'll reduce risk by reducing size.

2. Focus on adding to winners in single lot increments up to my max size which at the moment is 3.

3. Focus on riding the trade to its logical conclusion with larger size.

4. Stop moving my stop to BE so quick. This is almost always a bad idea.

The reason for this is simple. When a trade fails, it generally fails pretty quick. But when its a winner, it can take quite a long time for it to really get going. So while the risk is largest, it seems logical to have the smallest size on.

Going in backwards like this would have produced about 70 ticks on the long for the first lot, around 55-60 ticks on the second lot and perhaps 25-35 on the third lot. Basically a $1500 trade using the smaller figures maxing out at 3 lots on at the finish. A perfectly executed scale OUT trade would be around $1000. And a stop out at the beginning would have cost me 2/3 rds less than it would have otherwise.

The only down side to this plan is the initial pull back with a single lot on. This is the battle I've fought my entire trading career. Not wanting to give up that initial push in favor of a much larger move. However, if I go into it with the idea that I must hold through it and then add when I get an opportunity, perhaps this will help.

I will trade this idea next week. If it helps I'll keep doing it. If not, then I'l revert to the old method of scaling out.

But emotionally I think I may finally be comfortable with the idea of scaling in vs scaling out.

Comments and suggestions regarding this idea are welcome.

What I traded



What I could have done.


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 PandaWarrior 
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I made a few revisions to my trade plan this weekend regarding position sizing and how it relates to risk control and adding in vs scaling out. Trade plan included stops, appropriate times and methods to add.

Not trading tomorrow. Going to the parade with my kid and hopefully teach her a bit more about the price of freedom and how expensive it really is. To bad so many take it lightly these days.

Cheers.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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 Futures Operator 
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PandaWarrior View Post
I made a few revisions to my trade plan this weekend regarding position sizing and how it relates to risk control and adding in vs scaling out. Trade plan included stops, appropriate times and methods to add

Would you be willing to post/share your trade plan to help us better understand/learn from your trading?

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 PandaWarrior 
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Would you be willing to post/share your trade plan to help us better understand/learn from your trading?

This is my basic plan. The new stuff is in the second pdf. Its about scaling in. As I test this premise this week, I'll revise and update until its something I can live with.

Its not complicated nor is it really a working document I follow to the letter. I have most of it internalized at this point so no need to keep it up where I can read it. I'm afraid there's no new revelations here.

But I hope it helps.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 PandaWarrior 
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Arrows are actual entries, triangles are what could have been better entries. Each entry was one unit (right now thats one lot) Target zones are price action based.

This went pretty well. However, I could have done a much better job with the entries. I over thought the entries to much instead of just going with the lower risk ones. I'll do better with it tomorrow.

Overall, I like this scaling in a lot better than scaling out although to be honest, I did both today. But the exits were predetermined. Much less stress in the beginning when the risk is highest.


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 VinceVirgil 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Arrows are actual entries, triangles are what could have been better entries. Each entry was one unit (right now thats one lot) Target zones are price action based.

This went pretty well. However, I could have done a much better job with the entries. I over thought the entries to much instead of just going with the lower risk ones. I'll do better with it tomorrow.

Overall, I like this scaling in a lot better than scaling out although to be honest, I did both today. But the exits were predetermined. Much less stress in the beginning when the risk is highest.


Looking pretty good. Whats the word? Elegant. Well thought out and disciplined.

Nice work, there.

Vance

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 Superdoug3 
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 Patrick S 
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The only down side to this plan is the initial pull back with a single lot on. This is the battle I've fought my entire trading career. Not wanting to give up that initial push in favor of a much larger move. However, if I go into it with the idea that I must hold through it and then add when I get an opportunity, perhaps this will help. this is Panda Statement.

I don't know how to just take a piece of your post so I copied and pasted it here.

Not wanting to give up the initial push is what I want to highlight.

I have the same Dang issue and spend many hours debating this in my head.
At this time I am going to stick to grabbing the profit on the first push.
If I can prove to do it consistantly over a 4 month period than I can take it live.
Posting my SIM trades on futures.io (formerly BMT) for me is just like taking it live. Because it is like revealing my stupidity to ALL!

for me personally... My debate is I do not need to see 100 tics a day or even 50. If I can consistantly pull 8-10 than I can add contracts. But I must earn the right to add contracts.

the other side of that debate is the big stops I have and the P&L Ratio.

the battle will rage on but I will never give up.

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 PandaWarrior 
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Patrick S View Post
Not wanting to give up the initial push is what I want to highlight.

I have the same Dang issue and spend many hours debating this in my head.
At this time I am going to stick to grabbing the profit on the first push.
If I can prove to do it consistantly over a 4 month period than I can take it live.
Posting my SIM trades on futures.io (formerly BMT) for me is just like taking it live. Because it is like revealing my stupidity to ALL!

for me personally... My debate is I do not need to see 100 tics a day or even 50. If I can consistantly pull 8-10 than I can add contracts. But I must earn the right to add contracts.

the other side of that debate is the big stops I have and the P&L Ratio.

the battle will rage on but I will never give up.

I will say this about the initial push thing. It took me forever to get over this. But I finally made up my mind that the bigger money was gonna come from holding through this. Which meant I had to reduce risk during this period. So entering with a single lot, holding through the first push, adding on once price showed me it was in fact going my direction and then finding price action based targets seems to be the holy grail of trading at least at this stage.

Another thing, in looking at your charts, you do seem to get your first entry quite a long time after it appears you could be in. Combine that with your large stop and you will be sweating bullets. Reduce risk by reducing size and be also getting in sooner once you find your S/R levels. Just my two cents.

As to the consistent 8-10 per day, that should be an AVERAGE which means you need to look for 2-3 times that to allow for days you lose money. Stopping when you get to 10 means on the days when your 8 point stop gets nailed will basically turn you into a net break even trader or worse, an account blow up. You need many days of wins to recoup the big stop loss. Before you think about winning, you need to think about losing and how to make the losers as small as possible.

That means small size and small stops placed close to the S/R areas.....add on once you are sure the trade is working.

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 Patrick S 
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I will say this about the initial push thing. It took me forever to get over this. But I finally made up my mind that the bigger money was gonna come from holding through this. Which meant I had to reduce risk during this period. So entering with a single lot, holding through the first push, adding on once price showed me it was in fact going my direction and then finding price action based targets seems to be the holy grail of trading at least at this stage.

Another thing, in looking at your charts, you do seem to get your first entry quite a long time after it appears you could be in. Combine that with your large stop and you will be sweating bullets. Reduce risk by reducing size and be also getting in sooner once you find your S/R levels. Just my two cents.

As to the consistent 8-10 per day, that should be an AVERAGE which means you need to look for 2-3 times that to allow for days you lose money. Stopping when you get to 10 means on the days when your 8 point stop gets nailed will basically turn you into a net break even trader or worse, an account blow up. You need many days of wins to recoup the big stop loss. Before you think about winning, you need to think about losing and how to make the losers as small as possible.

That means small size and small stops placed close to the S/R areas.....add on once you are sure the trade is working.

Somthing My mentor always said rings in the back of my head.. He says we are betting on Long Term Odds.
Anything can happen short term.
That is why I say I want to see 4 months of a system b4 I take it live.
I have been searching for that system for a long time. I left the trading room about 6 months ago. And now my own personal Journey starts. I typically spend 2 hours in the morning and 2-3 hrs at night in front of the charts.
I will find my system and then prove it works.
Thank you for taking the time to watch my Journal and the constructive feed back.

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 josh 
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Patrick S View Post
If I can consistantly pull 8-10 than I can add contracts.

This is dangerous thinking.

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 Patrick S 
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josh View Post
This is dangerous thinking.

So Says You.. Dude you need explain your statement.
Lets not muddy up Pandas Journal. Please send me a PM

If you always do what you have always done you will always get what you have always gotten.
Celebrate because you executed your edge. Not because you won.
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 PandaWarrior 
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Not the greatest day for trade management but I ended the day with a decent profit after struggling a bit to get my sea legs under me.

I took the overnight trade and went to bed. That one worked. Then got short, scaled in, and had the stop in the wrong place. I got hit and immediately got back in and trailed out at the green box area.

The swing was broken and I normally would go long there but I waited for a second entry but never got it. I tried to get long at a "scale" in area....but this failed while I took my kid to school. Followed with a short, which failed and a subsequent reversal to long once price could not get below 85.00. This price has been an important level for several days now. Sure enough, it launched out of this area like a rocket ship. There were no real opportunities to add to this long so finished it with one lot.

This trade took me from a small loss for the day to a decent profit. Overall I was unsatisfied with my trade execution and management especially early with regards to the stop but I did learn something about intermediate swings and put it to use on the next short. It was still a loser but I managed the trade much better. Proper trade management on the first short would have had me up enough to stop for the day if I wanted to.


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 PandaWarrior 
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I made some execution errors this week. Mostly due to figuring where to scale in on the hard right edge of the chart. I also had some entry selection errors in terms of waiting for to much confirmation on a few trades.

Nevertheless, it was a fruitful week. I learned a few things about myself as well as how well (and sometimes not) I read price action in certain circumstances.

Trading is not a game of perfect, however it is a game of winners being larger than losers. After this week, I think scaling into a trade is the way to go, you can scale out as well but thats a different story. However, one thing I did struggle with was stops, moving to soon, not moving fast enough. All in all it was a break even week but it was worthwhile.

I'm taking on a project that could consume an enormous amount of time over the next few weeks. I really intend to limit my trading related activities to the morning trade window and perhaps post once or twice a week if possible.

Cheers.

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 PandaWarrior 
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Was a little distracted this morning. Was up nicely just scalping, and then went back to flat. Finished the day off my equity high by 50%. No chart today. I'm wiped out.

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 PandaWarrior 
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Day after Thanksgiving I was expecting price to move a little slower than normal and it did. I've been watching the daily chart looking for that confirmation the overall trend is up after all the bottoming action going on the last couple of weeks.

The way I see it, if price breaks above today's high and closes up, we are in a confirmed long on the daily chart. This means I'll be looking more for longs in my intra day trades but still willing to be short if the market gives a nice set up. There was a nice long set up at support on the daily chart several days ago but since I don't trade the daily, nothing I could do about it.

For this mornings trades, I only took one trade, rode it to my target zone and exited with a bit less than maximum potential. Nevertheless, the trade was executed with near perfection and held the way it was supposed to.

I took the trade off at yesterday's high figuring price would either reach that area and stall out or it would break through and run up. It did both. At the target zone, price stalled out and went through the first real accumulation phase of the morning. Then price broke above that zone and went another 100 ticks or so. By that time, I was out of the market with my profits and getting ready to leave the house.

Regarding my charts, I put the multi Ema back on, I found I liked them but at the same time, I also recognize a shortcoming they have and the couple of weeks without them allowed me to fine tune that weakness and now I can trade around it. I also added for kicks and giggles, @Fat Tails visual SMA set to 21 on a 5M bar. This allows me to see the 5M SMA on my trading chart just as a point of reference.

As to my experiment with scaling in vs scaling out, I've decided to try to do both, exit a portion of the trade somewhat early, take enough to offset the risk, hold the runner position, add to it when I have enough profit in the trade to make the entire trade free if the added on portion stops out and then let the new larger position run as far as I think I it will go or I get an exit signal. Today I had a single add on opportunity but I purposefully passed on it as I wasn't willing to take to much risk today in terms of it being a possible range day/slow trading day. The entry location wasn't high enough to add on and still be at least break even on the entire trade if it stopped out. So best to pass. I'll be more aggressive with this next week.


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 PandaWarrior 
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Still trading in the morning. Just working on a project the rest of the time. Almost around the clock work is possible but feasible for me. I think it will terminate in a few weeks. Until then, limited posting on my part.

Took 50+ cumulative ticks this morning in the sell off before the number came out. Basically one and done for the day. I did take a second trade long right at the end of the sell off for a small scalp. I find I like the get in, get paid and get out mentality when it works. Other times it leaves you wanting more but today it was nice.

Cheers

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 PandaWarrior 
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I have about ten minutes....I thought I would stick today's chart up for posterity.


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 PandaWarrior 
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Man I'm fried. Working on this new project is way more draining than trading.....Anyway, one and done this morning.

This one was a hard one for me. I knew it was long but the pull back threw me a bit for some reason. Anyway, tried to get long once. Closed it real fast, the got back in at a better price....Held that one for +50 ticks.


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 PandaWarrior 
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In my spare time (rare) I am thinking about the idea that there are no real rules in trading.

Basically, if you think its long, buy it. Doesn't really matter where. If you think its short, sell it. Any price will do....the only real caveat is this: Where are you wrong and can you handle the risk if you buy or sell right this second?

If you can, take the trade, if not, wait for a better price or some sort of confirmation of your premise. Or even if you can handle the risk and you want to wait for a better price or the same level of confirmation, that's ok as well. Just know where you're wrong.

Second part of the random rules is this: Make sure you either win more than you lose or at the minimum, your winners are bigger than your losers by enough to offset the losers and still make a profit.

Last bit is this, I think the place where I am wrong is often not where I think it is or worse, where I want it to be.

Something to think about.

I'm thinking that's about it.

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 omni72 
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PandaWarrior View Post
In my spare time (rare) I am thinking about the idea that there are no real rules in trading.

Basically, if you think its long, buy it. Doesn't really matter where. If you think its short, sell it. Any price will do....the only real caveat is this: Where are you wrong and can you handle the risk if you buy or sell right this second?

I ran into this scenario in gold today. I got left at the altar but wasn't cool with chasing it so opted to pass on the deal. Had an internal dialog almost exactly like the questions you posted. Basically went like this:

Me1: It's moving up, it's confirming your idea, just get in.
Me2: Look at all that air below us. What'll it take to force you to puke it out?
Me1: Play it close to the vest, you don't have to risk a lot on it. Be nimble.
Me2: What's a lot? This thing can move 15 ticks as quickly as it can one tick. You could still have the right idea and get run over.
Me3: It's okay, I'll look for another opportunity.
Me1: Why do I even bother ...


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 PandaWarrior 
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Some bad mexican food last night...bad mojo this morning......argggg.......

Still, managed to get the trade on before real trouble set in......it came back took me at BE, and then I remembered my thought process from the other day and said to myself, the premise is not over, just buy it, so I did and then back to dealing with Moctezuma.

In between trips to the facilities, took a look at the daily, figured stops for the shorts were in the 89.65 -89.70 range. So waited around to see what would happen there. Sure enough, volume started picking up, the sell orders were absorbed and price shot up past those prices. By then I knew my target would be reached so just waited patiently while the opening drive momentum carried me toward my target.

After just a few minutes, I had my 50 ticks and done for the day. I did get long a bit later after another trip to visit Moctezuma for 10 ticks for a total of 60 ticks today....


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 afranco562 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Some bad mexican food last night...bad mojo this morning......argggg.......

Still, managed to get the trade on before real trouble set in......it came back took me at BE, and then I remembered my thought process from the other day and said to myself, the premise is not over, just buy it, so I did and then back to dealing with Moctezuma.

In between trips to the facilities, took a look at the daily, figured stops for the shorts were in the 89.65 -89.70 range. So waited around to see what would happen there. Sure enough, volume started picking up, the sell orders were absorbed and price shot up past those prices. By then I knew my target would be reached so just waited patiently while the opening drive momentum carried me toward my target.

After just a few minutes, I had my 50 ticks and done for the day. I did get long a bit later after another trip to visit Moctezuma for 10 ticks for a total of 60 ticks today....


Hi Panda,
Noticed that your profile is set to: Trading Experience: Beginner. It does not look like your "walking the talk" like a beginner. Do you still consider your self a beginner?

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 PandaWarrior 
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afranco562 View Post
Hi Panda,
Noticed that your profile is set to: Trading Experience: Beginner. It does not look like your "walking the talk" like a beginner. Do you still consider your self a beginner?


In life, it seems as though you start to think you've figured it out and out of the blue, you get blindsided by something you knew nothing about and you start over with fresh perspective. So in that sense, I will always be a beginner.

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 PandaWarrior 
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No trading today. Yesterday's illness took a lot out of me and I was exhausted which meant I woke up to late to really trade properly. I like the 30 minutes before the cash open and the 30-60 minutes after the open if I haven't gotten my ticks in yet.

Worked on my other project off and on today. Still have some remnants of yesterdays evil hanging around. I'm hoping its all gone by tomorrow. Ate my first solid food since Sunday night this evening. I hate being sick.....

Cheers.

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 PandaWarrior 
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One and done today. was a bit nervous that price wouldn't break through yesterday's low but once it did, was pretty confident I would get a nice winner. I gout out just as the cash open began. Of course it went about 30 ticks more and my trail ext would have netted me an extra ten ticks.

I'm happy with this trade. Its the kind of thing I see happen pretty frequently and am trying to take advantage of more often.



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 PandaWarrior 
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PandaWarrior View Post
In my spare time (rare) I am thinking about the idea that there are no real rules in trading.

Basically, if you think its long, buy it. Doesn't really matter where. If you think its short, sell it. Any price will do....the only real caveat is this: Where are you wrong and can you handle the risk if you buy or sell right this second?

If you can, take the trade, if not, wait for a better price or some sort of confirmation of your premise. Or even if you can handle the risk and you want to wait for a better price or the same level of confirmation, that's ok as well. Just know where you're wrong.

Second part of the random rules is this: Make sure you either win more than you lose or at the minimum, your winners are bigger than your losers by enough to offset the losers and still make a profit.

Last bit is this, I think the place where I am wrong is often not where I think it is or worse, where I want it to be.

Something to think about.

I'm thinking that's about it.

You know you're running out of things to say when you start quoting yourself...but I wanted to add to this.

Ancillary to this is the idea that it doesn't really matter how much profit you take on a trade. The HFT guys scalping for ticks prove this and so do the forex guys that hold for days and weeks to bag hundreds and hundreds of ticks/pips. What the important bit is this; can you do it repeatedly in some sort of longer term predictable pattern? If you can, then size up as your account grows. Use some sort of formula to tell you when to add size. Any formula will do. Some are better than others but just use one.

The point you ask? Stop stressing over how big the targets should be. Set them appropriately for your time frame/chart size and stop worrying about it. If your chart size routinely gives 20 tick moves, take 20. 400, then take 400. Who cares? Just do it over and over again like a machine. If you're looking at a 2 range chart, you might not be prepared for a 200 tick move in CL. You'll get taken well before then out most of the time, but 10-20 ticks, no problem.

The main thing is this, know where you're wrong, take appropriate risks based on that, place the trade and the stop and forget about it. Let it play out. Resist the urge to over-manage the trade. If you scalp, get to BE quick, if you hold for larger moves, be patient. Time brings the rewards, impatience limits the rewards.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1291 (permalink)
 MoparCar 
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Good perception of not having excessive expectations for the chart your trading. I completely agree with not setting a profit on each trade and rather do something consistent over and over as long as the trade is well managed.

Nice last trade by the way. Very clean with great execution. I enjoy your journal.

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 PandaWarrior 
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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 begeegs 
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Some bad mexican food last night...bad mojo this morning......argggg.......

Still, managed to get the trade on before real trouble set in......it came back took me at BE, and then I remembered my thought process from the other day and said to myself, the premise is not over, just buy it, so I did and then back to dealing with Moctezuma.

In between trips to the facilities, took a look at the daily, figured stops for the shorts were in the 89.65 -89.70 range. So waited around to see what would happen there. Sure enough, volume started picking up, the sell orders were absorbed and price shot up past those prices. By then I knew my target would be reached so just waited patiently while the opening drive momentum carried me toward my target.

After just a few minutes, I had my 50 ticks and done for the day. I did get long a bit later after another trip to visit Moctezuma for 10 ticks for a total of 60 ticks today....


Hi Pandawarrior,

How are you determining where stops would be?

Cheers

Visit my futures io Trade Journal
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 PandaWarrior 
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Hi Pandawarrior,

How are you determining where stops would be?

Cheers

Just basically looking at the chart and noticing where it looks logical. Nothing more...

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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 monpere 
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Just basically looking at the chart and noticing where it looks logical. Nothing more...

For clarity, on the latest chart trade that you showed, where would that be?

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 PandaWarrior 
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