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The PandaWarrior Chronicles
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The PandaWarrior Chronicles

  #1281 (permalink)
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I have about ten minutes....I thought I would stick today's chart up for posterity.

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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1282 (permalink)
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Man I'm fried. Working on this new project is way more draining than trading.....Anyway, one and done this morning.

This one was a hard one for me. I knew it was long but the pull back threw me a bit for some reason. Anyway, tried to get long once. Closed it real fast, the got back in at a better price....Held that one for +50 ticks.

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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1283 (permalink)
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In my spare time (rare) I am thinking about the idea that there are no real rules in trading.

Basically, if you think its long, buy it. Doesn't really matter where. If you think its short, sell it. Any price will do....the only real caveat is this: Where are you wrong and can you handle the risk if you buy or sell right this second?

If you can, take the trade, if not, wait for a better price or some sort of confirmation of your premise. Or even if you can handle the risk and you want to wait for a better price or the same level of confirmation, that's ok as well. Just know where you're wrong.

Second part of the random rules is this: Make sure you either win more than you lose or at the minimum, your winners are bigger than your losers by enough to offset the losers and still make a profit.

Last bit is this, I think the place where I am wrong is often not where I think it is or worse, where I want it to be.

Something to think about.

I'm thinking that's about it.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1284 (permalink)
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Tulsa, OK
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
In my spare time (rare) I am thinking about the idea that there are no real rules in trading.

Basically, if you think its long, buy it. Doesn't really matter where. If you think its short, sell it. Any price will do....the only real caveat is this: Where are you wrong and can you handle the risk if you buy or sell right this second?

I ran into this scenario in gold today. I got left at the altar but wasn't cool with chasing it so opted to pass on the deal. Had an internal dialog almost exactly like the questions you posted. Basically went like this:

Me1: It's moving up, it's confirming your idea, just get in.
Me2: Look at all that air below us. What'll it take to force you to puke it out?
Me1: Play it close to the vest, you don't have to risk a lot on it. Be nimble.
Me2: What's a lot? This thing can move 15 ticks as quickly as it can one tick. You could still have the right idea and get run over.
Me3: It's okay, I'll look for another opportunity.
Me1: Why do I even bother ...


Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity. ~ Seneca
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  #1285 (permalink)
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In the heat
 
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Some bad mexican food last night...bad mojo this morning......argggg.......

Still, managed to get the trade on before real trouble set in......it came back took me at BE, and then I remembered my thought process from the other day and said to myself, the premise is not over, just buy it, so I did and then back to dealing with Moctezuma.

In between trips to the facilities, took a look at the daily, figured stops for the shorts were in the 89.65 -89.70 range. So waited around to see what would happen there. Sure enough, volume started picking up, the sell orders were absorbed and price shot up past those prices. By then I knew my target would be reached so just waited patiently while the opening drive momentum carried me toward my target.

After just a few minutes, I had my 50 ticks and done for the day. I did get long a bit later after another trip to visit Moctezuma for 10 ticks for a total of 60 ticks today....

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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1286 (permalink)
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Los Angeles
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Some bad mexican food last night...bad mojo this morning......argggg.......

Still, managed to get the trade on before real trouble set in......it came back took me at BE, and then I remembered my thought process from the other day and said to myself, the premise is not over, just buy it, so I did and then back to dealing with Moctezuma.

In between trips to the facilities, took a look at the daily, figured stops for the shorts were in the 89.65 -89.70 range. So waited around to see what would happen there. Sure enough, volume started picking up, the sell orders were absorbed and price shot up past those prices. By then I knew my target would be reached so just waited patiently while the opening drive momentum carried me toward my target.

After just a few minutes, I had my 50 ticks and done for the day. I did get long a bit later after another trip to visit Moctezuma for 10 ticks for a total of 60 ticks today....

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Hi Panda,
Noticed that your profile is set to: Trading Experience: Beginner. It does not look like your "walking the talk" like a beginner. Do you still consider your self a beginner?

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  #1287 (permalink)
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afranco562 View Post
Hi Panda,
Noticed that your profile is set to: Trading Experience: Beginner. It does not look like your "walking the talk" like a beginner. Do you still consider your self a beginner?


In life, it seems as though you start to think you've figured it out and out of the blue, you get blindsided by something you knew nothing about and you start over with fresh perspective. So in that sense, I will always be a beginner.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1288 (permalink)
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Posts: 3,155 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,306 given, 13,250 received

No trading today. Yesterday's illness took a lot out of me and I was exhausted which meant I woke up to late to really trade properly. I like the 30 minutes before the cash open and the 30-60 minutes after the open if I haven't gotten my ticks in yet.

Worked on my other project off and on today. Still have some remnants of yesterdays evil hanging around. I'm hoping its all gone by tomorrow. Ate my first solid food since Sunday night this evening. I hate being sick.....

Cheers.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1289 (permalink)
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One and done today. was a bit nervous that price wouldn't break through yesterday's low but once it did, was pretty confident I would get a nice winner. I gout out just as the cash open began. Of course it went about 30 ticks more and my trail ext would have netted me an extra ten ticks.

I'm happy with this trade. Its the kind of thing I see happen pretty frequently and am trying to take advantage of more often.


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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
The following 11 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
  #1290 (permalink)
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Posts: 3,155 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,306 given, 13,250 received



PandaWarrior View Post
In my spare time (rare) I am thinking about the idea that there are no real rules in trading.

Basically, if you think its long, buy it. Doesn't really matter where. If you think its short, sell it. Any price will do....the only real caveat is this: Where are you wrong and can you handle the risk if you buy or sell right this second?

If you can, take the trade, if not, wait for a better price or some sort of confirmation of your premise. Or even if you can handle the risk and you want to wait for a better price or the same level of confirmation, that's ok as well. Just know where you're wrong.

Second part of the random rules is this: Make sure you either win more than you lose or at the minimum, your winners are bigger than your losers by enough to offset the losers and still make a profit.

Last bit is this, I think the place where I am wrong is often not where I think it is or worse, where I want it to be.

Something to think about.

I'm thinking that's about it.

You know you're running out of things to say when you start quoting yourself...but I wanted to add to this.

Ancillary to this is the idea that it doesn't really matter how much profit you take on a trade. The HFT guys scalping for ticks prove this and so do the forex guys that hold for days and weeks to bag hundreds and hundreds of ticks/pips. What the important bit is this; can you do it repeatedly in some sort of longer term predictable pattern? If you can, then size up as your account grows. Use some sort of formula to tell you when to add size. Any formula will do. Some are better than others but just use one.

The point you ask? Stop stressing over how big the targets should be. Set them appropriately for your time frame/chart size and stop worrying about it. If your chart size routinely gives 20 tick moves, take 20. 400, then take 400. Who cares? Just do it over and over again like a machine. If you're looking at a 2 range chart, you might not be prepared for a 200 tick move in CL. You'll get taken well before then out most of the time, but 10-20 ticks, no problem.

The main thing is this, know where you're wrong, take appropriate risks based on that, place the trade and the stop and forget about it. Let it play out. Resist the urge to over-manage the trade. If you scalp, get to BE quick, if you hold for larger moves, be patient. Time brings the rewards, impatience limits the rewards.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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