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The PandaWarrior Chronicles
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The PandaWarrior Chronicles

  #1271 (permalink)
Elite Member
Raleigh NC
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Ninja
Broker/Data: Mirus/ZenFire
Favorite Futures: Oil
 
Patrick S's Avatar
 
Posts: 628 since May 2012
Thanks: 394 given, 519 received

same issue

The only down side to this plan is the initial pull back with a single lot on. This is the battle I've fought my entire trading career. Not wanting to give up that initial push in favor of a much larger move. However, if I go into it with the idea that I must hold through it and then add when I get an opportunity, perhaps this will help. this is Panda Statement.

I don't know how to just take a piece of your post so I copied and pasted it here.

Not wanting to give up the initial push is what I want to highlight.

I have the same Dang issue and spend many hours debating this in my head.
At this time I am going to stick to grabbing the profit on the first push.
If I can prove to do it consistantly over a 4 month period than I can take it live.
Posting my SIM trades on futures.io (formerly BMT) for me is just like taking it live. Because it is like revealing my stupidity to ALL!

for me personally... My debate is I do not need to see 100 tics a day or even 50. If I can consistantly pull 8-10 than I can add contracts. But I must earn the right to add contracts.

the other side of that debate is the big stops I have and the P&L Ratio.

the battle will rage on but I will never give up.

If you always do what you have always done you will always get what you have always gotten.
Celebrate because you executed your edge. Not because you won.
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  #1272 (permalink)
Elite Member
In the heat
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: NT
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,155 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,306 given, 13,250 received


Patrick S View Post
Not wanting to give up the initial push is what I want to highlight.

I have the same Dang issue and spend many hours debating this in my head.
At this time I am going to stick to grabbing the profit on the first push.
If I can prove to do it consistantly over a 4 month period than I can take it live.
Posting my SIM trades on futures.io (formerly BMT) for me is just like taking it live. Because it is like revealing my stupidity to ALL!

for me personally... My debate is I do not need to see 100 tics a day or even 50. If I can consistantly pull 8-10 than I can add contracts. But I must earn the right to add contracts.

the other side of that debate is the big stops I have and the P&L Ratio.

the battle will rage on but I will never give up.

I will say this about the initial push thing. It took me forever to get over this. But I finally made up my mind that the bigger money was gonna come from holding through this. Which meant I had to reduce risk during this period. So entering with a single lot, holding through the first push, adding on once price showed me it was in fact going my direction and then finding price action based targets seems to be the holy grail of trading at least at this stage.

Another thing, in looking at your charts, you do seem to get your first entry quite a long time after it appears you could be in. Combine that with your large stop and you will be sweating bullets. Reduce risk by reducing size and be also getting in sooner once you find your S/R levels. Just my two cents.

As to the consistent 8-10 per day, that should be an AVERAGE which means you need to look for 2-3 times that to allow for days you lose money. Stopping when you get to 10 means on the days when your 8 point stop gets nailed will basically turn you into a net break even trader or worse, an account blow up. You need many days of wins to recoup the big stop loss. Before you think about winning, you need to think about losing and how to make the losers as small as possible.

That means small size and small stops placed close to the S/R areas.....add on once you are sure the trade is working.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1273 (permalink)
Elite Member
Raleigh NC
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Ninja
Broker/Data: Mirus/ZenFire
Favorite Futures: Oil
 
Patrick S's Avatar
 
Posts: 628 since May 2012
Thanks: 394 given, 519 received

Long Terms Odds



PandaWarrior View Post
I will say this about the initial push thing. It took me forever to get over this. But I finally made up my mind that the bigger money was gonna come from holding through this. Which meant I had to reduce risk during this period. So entering with a single lot, holding through the first push, adding on once price showed me it was in fact going my direction and then finding price action based targets seems to be the holy grail of trading at least at this stage.

Another thing, in looking at your charts, you do seem to get your first entry quite a long time after it appears you could be in. Combine that with your large stop and you will be sweating bullets. Reduce risk by reducing size and be also getting in sooner once you find your S/R levels. Just my two cents.

As to the consistent 8-10 per day, that should be an AVERAGE which means you need to look for 2-3 times that to allow for days you lose money. Stopping when you get to 10 means on the days when your 8 point stop gets nailed will basically turn you into a net break even trader or worse, an account blow up. You need many days of wins to recoup the big stop loss. Before you think about winning, you need to think about losing and how to make the losers as small as possible.

That means small size and small stops placed close to the S/R areas.....add on once you are sure the trade is working.

Somthing My mentor always said rings in the back of my head.. He says we are betting on Long Term Odds.
Anything can happen short term.
That is why I say I want to see 4 months of a system b4 I take it live.
I have been searching for that system for a long time. I left the trading room about 6 months ago. And now my own personal Journey starts. I typically spend 2 hours in the morning and 2-3 hrs at night in front of the charts.
I will find my system and then prove it works.
Thank you for taking the time to watch my Journal and the constructive feed back.

If you always do what you have always done you will always get what you have always gotten.
Celebrate because you executed your edge. Not because you won.
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  #1274 (permalink)
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Georgia, US
 
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Patrick S View Post
If I can consistantly pull 8-10 than I can add contracts.

This is dangerous thinking.

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  #1275 (permalink)
Elite Member
Raleigh NC
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Ninja
Broker/Data: Mirus/ZenFire
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Patrick S's Avatar
 
Posts: 628 since May 2012
Thanks: 394 given, 519 received

Please explain


josh View Post
This is dangerous thinking.

So Says You.. Dude you need explain your statement.
Lets not muddy up Pandas Journal. Please send me a PM

If you always do what you have always done you will always get what you have always gotten.
Celebrate because you executed your edge. Not because you won.
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  #1276 (permalink)
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In the heat
 
Futures Experience: None
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PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,155 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,306 given, 13,250 received

Not the greatest day for trade management but I ended the day with a decent profit after struggling a bit to get my sea legs under me.

I took the overnight trade and went to bed. That one worked. Then got short, scaled in, and had the stop in the wrong place. I got hit and immediately got back in and trailed out at the green box area.

The swing was broken and I normally would go long there but I waited for a second entry but never got it. I tried to get long at a "scale" in area....but this failed while I took my kid to school. Followed with a short, which failed and a subsequent reversal to long once price could not get below 85.00. This price has been an important level for several days now. Sure enough, it launched out of this area like a rocket ship. There were no real opportunities to add to this long so finished it with one lot.

This trade took me from a small loss for the day to a decent profit. Overall I was unsatisfied with my trade execution and management especially early with regards to the stop but I did learn something about intermediate swings and put it to use on the next short. It was still a loser but I managed the trade much better. Proper trade management on the first short would have had me up enough to stop for the day if I wanted to.

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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1277 (permalink)
Elite Member
In the heat
 
Futures Experience: None
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PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,155 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,306 given, 13,250 received

I made some execution errors this week. Mostly due to figuring where to scale in on the hard right edge of the chart. I also had some entry selection errors in terms of waiting for to much confirmation on a few trades.

Nevertheless, it was a fruitful week. I learned a few things about myself as well as how well (and sometimes not) I read price action in certain circumstances.

Trading is not a game of perfect, however it is a game of winners being larger than losers. After this week, I think scaling into a trade is the way to go, you can scale out as well but thats a different story. However, one thing I did struggle with was stops, moving to soon, not moving fast enough. All in all it was a break even week but it was worthwhile.

I'm taking on a project that could consume an enormous amount of time over the next few weeks. I really intend to limit my trading related activities to the morning trade window and perhaps post once or twice a week if possible.

Cheers.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1278 (permalink)
Elite Member
In the heat
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: NT
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PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,155 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,306 given, 13,250 received

Was a little distracted this morning. Was up nicely just scalping, and then went back to flat. Finished the day off my equity high by 50%. No chart today. I'm wiped out.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1279 (permalink)
Elite Member
In the heat
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: NT
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,155 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,306 given, 13,250 received

Day after Thanksgiving I was expecting price to move a little slower than normal and it did. I've been watching the daily chart looking for that confirmation the overall trend is up after all the bottoming action going on the last couple of weeks.

The way I see it, if price breaks above today's high and closes up, we are in a confirmed long on the daily chart. This means I'll be looking more for longs in my intra day trades but still willing to be short if the market gives a nice set up. There was a nice long set up at support on the daily chart several days ago but since I don't trade the daily, nothing I could do about it.

For this mornings trades, I only took one trade, rode it to my target zone and exited with a bit less than maximum potential. Nevertheless, the trade was executed with near perfection and held the way it was supposed to.

I took the trade off at yesterday's high figuring price would either reach that area and stall out or it would break through and run up. It did both. At the target zone, price stalled out and went through the first real accumulation phase of the morning. Then price broke above that zone and went another 100 ticks or so. By that time, I was out of the market with my profits and getting ready to leave the house.

Regarding my charts, I put the multi Ema back on, I found I liked them but at the same time, I also recognize a shortcoming they have and the couple of weeks without them allowed me to fine tune that weakness and now I can trade around it. I also added for kicks and giggles, @Fat Tails visual SMA set to 21 on a 5M bar. This allows me to see the 5M SMA on my trading chart just as a point of reference.

As to my experiment with scaling in vs scaling out, I've decided to try to do both, exit a portion of the trade somewhat early, take enough to offset the risk, hold the runner position, add to it when I have enough profit in the trade to make the entire trade free if the added on portion stops out and then let the new larger position run as far as I think I it will go or I get an exit signal. Today I had a single add on opportunity but I purposefully passed on it as I wasn't willing to take to much risk today in terms of it being a possible range day/slow trading day. The entry location wasn't high enough to add on and still be at least break even on the entire trade if it stopped out. So best to pass. I'll be more aggressive with this next week.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
The following 11 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
  #1280 (permalink)
Elite Member
In the heat
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: NT
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,155 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,306 given, 13,250 received

Quick post


Still trading in the morning. Just working on a project the rest of the time. Almost around the clock work is possible but feasible for me. I think it will terminate in a few weeks. Until then, limited posting on my part.

Took 50+ cumulative ticks this morning in the sell off before the number came out. Basically one and done for the day. I did take a second trade long right at the end of the sell off for a small scalp. I find I like the get in, get paid and get out mentality when it works. Other times it leaves you wanting more but today it was nice.

Cheers

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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