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Glad you like the thread. 1XR is one times risk for me. If I take 15 ticks of risk, then i go BE once price has gone 15 ticks. I have no targets less than 2XR. And I often times look for 3-4XR when the conditions are right. All in all out though for me.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Probably done for the day, small loser day. I had confluence on three time frames but I did not like the 27M chart and so the longs really gave me fits in terms of trusting they would go. I even waited until they got to my BE trigger before moving the stop but each time they got hit. Except for the one I missed because I was looking at something else due to being pretty bored and I confess, somewhat nervous about trading at all today.
Nevertheless, other than the missed trade that worked at the beginning of the move and the one at the end, I traded my plan pretty well. I made a decision not to take the last one as I felt it was really at resistance and had no chance of working. Of course it went to what would have been my target and then a bit but given my nervousness today, the feeling we were at resistance on the higher time frames and the general slow pace of the rally, I made the best decision I thought possible at the time.
I may trade later on today but only if I see shorts. I am short biased today due to the daily chart and so no more longs for me until at least the 27M chart agrees with the shorter time frames. That could be a while.
I'll do my spreadsheet later on if I trade more.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
You know you're important when you start quoting yourself....
Turns out I gave up a bit to soon....had another signal with another winner. These two would have wiped out the loss plus given me enough profit to meet my daily average. Those are the breaks though. Make the best of it.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
I like your line in the sand mentality. Plan your trade, trade your plan with reference to market context. If its not there for your method, dont try to force the trade.
One of my biggest challenges is having a long bias, regardless of the market context. Maybe its the wealth management side of me coming back to haunt me...all those years in the Buy and Hold enviornment has manufactured the long bias mentality.
At least I am conscious of it, and of course, aknowledgement is the first sep toward solving a problem.
But, on short trades, my profitability is way higher than on long trades. Which likley means I should be looking to graft my short trade mentality to long trades.
I'm more profitable on shorts as well. I understand the long bias from a wealth management perspective, i have it to as it relates to equities but commodities and especially commodity futures is no place for a long bias at least long term for us intra day traders.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
I had a draw down day today. The reason, I tried to play fortune teller and predict what the market was going to do instead of just staying on board with what it was doing. I did manage to keep control of the losses so they were fairly small but still, it was really poor behavior on my part. I know better.
Two days in a row with some mental issues. Time to bear down and overcome.
Another thing, I've spent to much time in front of the charts last few days. Could be the extra time is clouding my judgement. I find that the more I look at charts, the more I second guess myself in live markets. Back to regular trading hours tomorrow.
Sometimes I wonder if the mental game ever gets any easier? I know that in my former business, I eventually quit worrying about some stuff that used to drive me crazy early on. I wonder if that time will come for me? I feel like I am almost there in terms of really exploiting my edge but somethings still missing or perhaps I am not quite ready........
til tomorrow.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Like anything with repetition it becomes second nature. I say that if trading is exciting, you are probably losing money. What I find more interesting are the people that tell me I am wrong, that trading is exciting. Then I read their posts and follow them around the forum, and generally find they are lost. But that's just my opinion...
Find a trade location you are interested in, and pick a direction. Have a good risk and target defined. Put on the trade, then move to the next one.
To be fair, I'm really bored most of the time. I do get tempted occasionally to trade to relieve the boredom but most of the time, thats not an issue. Most days I just want to get it over with and get on with the rest of the day.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Missed a couple of days posting charts. This is early out week for my kid at school along with some other distractions. Today I am finished early enough to get ahead of that game and at least post a chart.
One and done today.
I thought the long rally might be over when I sat down as it had been rallying all night. But I got a good low risk signal and went in half size since I thought if it fails, I want to be small size right here.
Well it went all the way to my target zone but I trailed out a little ahead of that since there was a news report coming and I wanted out prior to that. The news report spiked price to just beyond my original target and then reversed.
I had a couple of other marginal signals today but elected to pass. I needed a win emotionally and even though it was half size, I still made decent money today.
The crisp clear MTF signals seem to produce winners in excess of my normal targets. Going forward, I will be working on just letting the winners run. Tough sometimes to be sure but I've gotten good at cutting the losers and to be completely fair, I have done better at letting price run to 2XR. However, I am going to start looking for the 50+ winners. Most of the time, these are available if I just wait for the clear signal and then just wait for the trade to mature on its own without demanding it run to 100 ticks in 30 seconds.....
Anyway, thats what I did this morning with the exception of getting out ahead of the news. Otherwise a full 50 ticks would have been mine.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
