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The PandaWarrior Chronicles
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The PandaWarrior Chronicles

  #1161 (permalink)
Elite Member
Argentina
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Favorite Futures: ES, TF, 6E, CL
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
I have a rule, exit BE once price has gone 1XR. If I was scaling out, this is where I would take the first position off and where the entire trade would then be BE without moving the stop up on a scale out scenario. Since I am not scaling out at this time, I want to avoid turning winners into losers. I back tested this and while its not ideal, (you do lose out on some moves occasionally) it keeps me out of a reasonable number of ultimate losers as well. So I am taking the good with the bad at this stage.

Today, had I not moved to BE on the last trade and simply held it, today would have ended nicely green. However, I would have had to hold past my trading cut off time, price was not moving agressively and I needed to leave the office. So I ended negative on the day. Those are the breaks I suppose.

All that being said, I think I wish I could just go loser or winner. No BEs. BE kinda throws off the numbers a bit but at this stage, I'm comfortable with it.

Brian I think it is a great excercise to take your actual trade to risk free at the point where a 2+ ct trade would be at that same level....in your case 1XR. More if u measure and document how it ended live and how it would have ended multicontrat.....this builds confidence while preserving capital.....trading 1ct is much more difficult than scaling out and reducing risk as the trade move in your favor, but I am 100% with you with this methodology.....

do u know % of times u got taken out b/e and your stop was not taken before your targets? this would be called a scratch in live trade while a full winner in your "ideal" trade ??

GT
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  #1162 (permalink)
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PandaWarrior View Post
I have a rule, exit BE once price has gone 1XR. If I was scaling out, this is where I would take the first position off and where the entire trade would then be BE without moving the stop up on a scale out scenario. Since I am not scaling out at this time, I want to avoid turning winners into losers. I back tested this and while its not ideal, (you do lose out on some moves occasionally) it keeps me out of a reasonable number of ultimate losers as well. So I am taking the good with the bad at this stage.

All that being said, I think I wish I could just go loser or winner. No BEs. BE kinda throws off the numbers a bit but at this stage, I'm comfortable with it.

Would be interested to hear the detailed stats of your backtesting on this. Also you could go BE+1 to get the winner or loser rather than BE.

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  #1163 (permalink)
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gtichauer View Post
trading 1ct is much more difficult than scaling out and reducing risk as the trade move in your favor, but I am 100% with you with this methodology.....

Of course the other side of this is that despite being harder, the realized R/R per contract is higher with 1 contract/all in/all out.

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  #1164 (permalink)
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gtichauer View Post
Brian I think it is a great excercise to take your actual trade to risk free at the point where a 2+ ct trade would be at that same level....in your case 1XR. More if u measure and document how it ended live and how it would have ended multicontrat.....this builds confidence while preserving capital.....trading 1ct is much more difficult than scaling out and reducing risk as the trade move in your favor, but I am 100% with you with this methodology.....

do u know % of times u got taken out b/e and your stop was not taken before your targets? this would be called a scratch in live trade while a full winner in your "ideal" trade ??

I haven't kept stats on trades that stopped at BE then went on to win. To be fair, while I like stats, I hate compiling them. This is a stat I've not worked on nor does my spreadsheet have a place for it. Perhaps that will be the next project I work on. Right now its working and thats all I really care about.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1165 (permalink)
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Futures Operator View Post
Would be interested to hear the detailed stats of your backtesting on this. Also you could go BE+1 to get the winner or loser rather than BE.

My back testing consists entirely of scrolling through countless charts, identifying when my setups occur and counting the number of times I get a winner vs a loser vs a BE. Nothing "scientific" about the back test. I have idea about how to conduct an automated one with a set of parameters coded in ninja.

I realize this comes as a disappointment to some, but I'm a simple guy and I do things the simplest way possible.

I dont believe in BE+1. I used to but no longer. For various reasons but the biggest one is that it distorts your win rate. If you have system with 70% win rate but half of those are BE+1, your win rate is screwed up. And basing your projections or edge based on that is going to cost you money. Better to have the BE show up as a legit BE rather than a fake win.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1166 (permalink)
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PandaWarrior View Post
My back testing consists entirely of scrolling through countless charts, identifying when my setups occur and counting the number of times I get a winner vs a loser vs a BE. Nothing "scientific" about the back test. I have idea about how to conduct an automated one with a set of parameters coded in ninja.

I realize this comes as a disappointment to some, but I'm a simple guy and I do things the simplest way possible.

I dont believe in BE+1. I used to but no longer. For various reasons but the biggest one is that it distorts your win rate. If you have system with 70% win rate but half of those are BE+1, your win rate is screwed up. And basing your projections or edge based on that is going to cost you money. Better to have the BE show up as a legit BE rather than a fake win.

Nothing wrong with that, whatever works. I was more interested in the details of what you found through your backtesting than the method. Do you have any stats you came up with for how each method of stop management would affect your results?

Interesting point on the BE+1. How do you track BE's, in terms of win rate? Couldn't you track BE+1's the same way? Do you find the ease in tracking it as BE instead, worth giving up the +1?

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  #1167 (permalink)
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PandaWarrior View Post
My back testing consists entirely of scrolling through countless charts, identifying when my setups occur and counting the number of times I get a winner vs a loser vs a BE. Nothing "scientific" about the back test. I have idea about how to conduct an automated one with a set of parameters coded in ninja.

I realize this comes as a disappointment to some, but I'm a simple guy and I do things the simplest way possible.

I dont believe in BE+1. I used to but no longer. For various reasons but the biggest one is that it distorts your win rate. If you have system with 70% win rate but half of those are BE+1, your win rate is screwed up. And basing your projections or edge based on that is going to cost you money. Better to have the BE show up as a legit BE rather than a fake win.

Conversely, dosnt BE distort your losing rate, reducing your average loss in dollars? I mean, commissions are always going to result in BE as a loss.

I prefer the BE + 1 personally, only to cover commissions. Add up all those round trips over the course of 6 months, and I rather have the tick to the good. ( minus the commissions of course)

Just a personal thing i guess, but I hate paying those commissions. Its like the juice to the house.

It just occurred to me...Is there a way to configure Ninja Trader so that BE + or - a couple of ticks wouild not be counted in win loss raio. Or better still, be considered a scratch trade?

Just a thought...those Ninja guys gotta be avble to do that...they are pretty smart dudes.

On another note, the TradeVue Journal Webinar had an interesting feature in that it grouped trades together as lots were added or taken off as 1 trade. Dont know all the details, but it seemed like a good idea.


Last edited by VinceVirgil; October 4th, 2012 at 06:06 PM.
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  #1168 (permalink)
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in light of an unbelievable employment report, I was almost certain I wouldn't get a set up I liked for quite a while. The 100+ tick spike destroyed all chart structure and put me on edge. This meant I would need to find a way to either ride the lie or wait for a long time for a new structure to rebuild itself. I elected to try to ride the lie. And sure enough, it was a liar just as I suspected.

Once I was convinced it was short, I tried the first shot which got me positive, a BE which was one of those I could have just left alone, and then the next signal came before the real break out which meant a lot of waiting.....but it came, price went out to beyond my normal exit, I trailed out at 40 ticks. I was hoping for a huge runner but didn't get it.

Finished the week nicely. Ready for the weekend

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Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1169 (permalink)
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Nice week Brian



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  #1170 (permalink)
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PandaWarrior View Post
I have a rule, exit BE once price has gone 1XR. If I was scaling out, this is where I would take the first position off and where the entire trade would then be BE without moving the stop up on a scale out scenario. Since I am not scaling out at this time, I want to avoid turning winners into losers. I back tested this and while its not ideal, (you do lose out on some moves occasionally) it keeps me out of a reasonable number of ultimate losers as well. So I am taking the good with the bad at this stage.

Today, had I not moved to BE on the last trade and simply held it, today would have ended nicely green. However, I would have had to hold past my trading cut off time, price was not moving agressively and I needed to leave the office. So I ended negative on the day. Those are the breaks I suppose.

All that being said, I think I wish I could just go loser or winner. No BEs. BE kinda throws off the numbers a bit but at this stage, I'm comfortable with it.

Great journal Brian. I am currently learning to manage multiple contracts and this is almost exactly how I try to manage my trades. Instead of 1XR, I use PT1 for my first scale out, and then move the rest of my stops at least to where the trade is BE. PT1 is usually around 1R, and I have found managing multiple contracts is actually less stressful than a single contract.

Keep the posts coming

Xav

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