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Not really... not an opinion but an awareness of the context of the market. Trend days, (in equities) occur only 14% of the time while range days occur 86% of the time. The trick is to be able to identify trend days as early in the trading session as possible and adjust your strategy accordingly. The other 86% of time (majority) you can trade a tight mean reversion strategy.
I struggle a bit when the charts are not in sync. To take or not to take, that is the question. For me, I am answering that question with smaller targets. In other words, where is the trade likely to stop?
Today, even though the long was with "trend" the target was previous HOD on the long, and support levels on the shorts. Those levels happened to coincide with my normal targets in terms of R:R and while I thought the second short target was in play on the first short trade, I elected to take the first one off at the support area and see if it held or broke. I knew if it held, price would reverse and if it broke, I'd get another chance at the lower target.
I generally take the hand drawn lines off the chart before posting but thought I would leave them on today just to show some of my thinking today.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Made a couple of adjustments today in terms of looking for reversals. I have been seeing them fairly well but not taking them. They make me nervous. I took one long today but it was really to late, so was really nervous about it and got out BE the first time, then got another shot, took some off but the runner got stopped out and then of course at the open it shot up to my target zone. Oh well. Some times BE is not your friend.
I also went long straight into the resistance zone and after I did it, realized what I'd done and got out at BE and then said to myself, if this is a bad long trade, then it could be a great short. So I did and got out at a conservative exit.
The support and resistance areas were definitely places where price paused today day on the shorter time frame, but eventually, they all broke and the shorts worked well.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Looks like all your hard work is paying off now. I'm delighted for you. Now I will sit and wait for an email from TST with your name on it. It surely can't be long in coming.
Small scratch day for me today. I made some mistakes early, couldn't seem to get a handle on what was going on. then focused a bit more, got to BE, scratched a couple of trades, got a small winner and ended up slightly ahead. After commissions its about BE on the day and I'm happy for it after the mistakes early.
Seems like every time I slip focus a bit on just doing ONLY what I have tested, I pay for it. Second guessing what I have tested is a no no. So back on the wagon tomorrow.
On a side note, I'm driving some friends to the Grand Canyon tomorrow. They are going to hike from the north rim, down the canyon and back up the south rim. About 25-30 miles. I drop them at the north rim, drive 4+ hours around to the south rim and pick them up that evening. I get several hours of uninterrupted alone time to think, to plan, to dream or just veg out. Long drive to be sure but looking forward to it.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
A really nice sell off from yesterday's rally and one I was hoping would wait until I got up this morning. But I got here just as it was pulling back of the lows. I recognized what it was doing, got in but truthfully, I am not comfortable with counter trend trading like I would like to be. I took a tiny loss, berated myself for being chicken, got back in at the same price, let it go up a bit, and then got out at BE. So rather than torture myself any longer, I decided to wait and try to be short if and when it found some resistance.
Today I decided to short at resistance instead of waiting for all three charts to line up. Basically take the short at the highest time frame level regardless of what the other charts said. I waited until the lower time frames had some sort of selling going on and then shorted. This was the hardest trade I've ever done. It took forever. And in fact, I second guessed myself, got out at BE,got long, out at BE and finally made the mental leap to stay with my original premise and just hold it. I had a target of a few ticks above the LOD, trailed my stop out at +30 ticks. It eventually went to my target but it may not have filled me there as it ticked that price and bounced.....so might have ended up with +30 anyway based on some other form of trail.
Thats enough excitement for one day. Time to rest for the drive to the Grand Canyon trip tonight.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
