The PandaWarrior Chronicles - futures io
futures io



The PandaWarrior Chronicles


Discussion in Trading Journals

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one PandaWarrior with 945 posts (6,445 thanks)
    2. looks_two tigertrader with 101 posts (998 thanks)
    3. looks_3 tderrick with 88 posts (205 thanks)
    4. looks_4 Big Mike with 85 posts (437 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one tigertrader with 9.9 thanks per post
    2. looks_two PandaWarrior with 6.8 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 Big Mike with 5.1 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 VinceVirgil with 3.1 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 311,760 views
    2. thumb_up 11,047 thanks given
    3. group 162 followers
    1. forum 2,157 posts
    2. attach_file 207 attachments




Welcome to futures io: the largest futures trading community on the planet, with well over 125,000 members
  • Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
  • Quality education from leading professional traders
  • We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
  • We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

Closed Thread
 
Search this Thread
 

The PandaWarrior Chronicles

(login for full post details)
  #1001 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received


Adamus View Post
Hi Panda, do you know Robin McKenzie's book Treat your own Back? I've had a bad back for years and it really helped. It's pretty basic stuff - sounds like you might know a thing or two about it already though. Good luck.

That book is my bible.....had for years now....its pretty beat up at this point.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following 2 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1002 (permalink)
 tderrick 
Nashville, Tennessee
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja / Jigsaw / 9G
Broker: AMP / CQG
Trading: NQ, YM and ES
 
tderrick's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,588 since Sep 2010
Thanks: 4,260 given, 2,529 received

Get better, buddy


AJ
Nashville, Tennessee


"Life On The Edge of SR"
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following 2 users say Thank You to tderrick for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1003 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received


cory View Post
how much she weight?

55 pounds...it wasnt the weight though, it was the leverage. She came up to me for a hug, her head hits me mid chest and so I bent over slightly to hug her and she leaned over backwards like she was fainting into my arms and I bent over with her....then she turned loose of me and let her entire weight slump into my arms and I was bent over at exactly the wrong angle when her weight hit....pop....two days and counting...although I feel better right now than I have since then....tomorrow starts some minor exercises and slowly build up until its all better...

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following 2 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1004 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received

taking a few days off from trading last week and then the forced exile this week combined with the pain meds left me with lots of time to think. The drugs produced random thoughts but the moments of lucidity produced some moments of clarity.

I wrote of this the other day but it bears repeating.

Trade who I am, the way I know how to trade. Influence from others is both bad and good. It has forced me to really examine who I am as a trader and to reconcile the more difficult parts of the advice I've gotten along with the things I know about me.

I am a grinder. That means I can and should grind out my profits day after day and not worry about the coulda woulda shoulda trades.

It has taken almost a week of nothing to do for me to come to terms with the idea I don't need record breaking trades to make a living. That I can achieve my life goals trading like a time clock puncher. Thankfully the hourly rate is much higher than most clock punching jobs but I still find I think best and most clearly when I put things in this context even though I haven't punched a clock in 25 years.

I did two trades today, passed on two more, both winners and ended up double my daily goal.

Now to get out of this chair and take care of my back....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following 10 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1005 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received


vvhg View Post
V ; kl.k


???????????????????

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following 2 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1006 (permalink)
 vvhg 
Northern Germany
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT
Trading: FDAX, CL
 
vvhg's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,583 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 1,016 given, 2,816 received


PandaWarrior View Post
???????????????????

Lol, sorry my ipad screen unlocked while I was cleaning it...sorry


Vvhg



Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

P.S. I hope you get better soon and are up to speed again in no time.

Hic Rhodos, hic salta.
The following 3 users say Thank You to vvhg for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1007 (permalink)
 tderrick 
Nashville, Tennessee
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja / Jigsaw / 9G
Broker: AMP / CQG
Trading: NQ, YM and ES
 
tderrick's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,588 since Sep 2010
Thanks: 4,260 given, 2,529 received


vvhg View Post
Lol, sorry my ipad screen unlocked while I was cleaning it...sorry


Vvhg



Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

P.S. I hope you get better soon and are up to speed again in no time.


ha ha!!! lol


AJ
Nashville, Tennessee


"Life On The Edge of SR"
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following user says Thank You to tderrick for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1008 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received

Well my back is feeling much better, not perfect but better. Been doing some core exercises to begin to strengthen it again hopefully get in somewhat better shape in the process.

Last week, my father in law was really sick, 48 hour flu bug or something. We picked it up from him over the weekend. My wife was super sick Friday night, all day Saturday and most of Sunday. I thought I missed it, but it got me as well. Sunday after noon, Montezuma's revenge became my companion for all of Monday. I got lucky though, mine only lasted 24 hours. I just hope my kid doesn't get it was well.

I was back to work a bit yesterday but not really enough to write anything about. Basically wanted to see if I could sit in the chair for any length of time without my back hurting and also to see about how many times I would do battle with Montezuma.

Today was my first full day back to work. And what a crapped out day it was for trend followers. I had a nice winner early but exited to soon and that was it. I passed on the trade just after the inventory report and took ever signal after that. All losers. No follow through at all.

So I lost money today but not enough to upset me and furthermore, I lost money by not chickening out. I don't mind the losing day where I followed my plan to the letter and it just didnt work. Its those days where I don't follow my plan and lose money that chaps my hide. Or worse, a great trend day and I chicken out of entries or exit before planned profit taking levels have been attained. Those are the days that really piss me off. Today was not one of those days.

Here's to tomorrow being a nicer trading day for guys like me. However, I do have some resistance in the area we are currently trading on the higher time frames so I guess we will see.

No expectations equals no disappointments. Just trade.

Cheers.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following 11 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1009 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received

I ended up with a reasonably profitable week. Not like I could have or should have been but enough... Today was actually my most profitable day of the week and there was no trend. Go figure.

Anyway, back feels much better, stomach virus gone and feeling more like trading again.

I was driving along today thinking about a few things and it dawned on me that I have a mental block about a certain profit level. When I start getting close to it, I start looking for reasons to stay out of the market instead of looking for valid trades. I've even noticed I either intentionally or subconsciously make up reasons to be away from the computer or invent some other distractions....today, a perfectly good signal came, I was already within a few dollars of this magic number and I saw it happening in front of me. One of my trading buddies that knows my signals asked me if I had taken it. I replied no because I was typing something. I was typing but certainly could have stopped for the two seconds it took to place the order. Sure enough, that trade was a winner as was the next one I saw a bit later. Neither of which I took.

So gonna take this weekend and think about why I freak out at this profit number. I know I had a mental block about a certain income threshold in the mortgage business. It took me two years to break it. The first year I got within $700 of it and I remember electing to NOT close a piece of business in the calendar month because I was afraid I couldn't actually get it closed in time to qualify but I used the Christmas holiday as an excuse to not even attempt it. I certainly could have gotten it done, of that I am sure, but was afraid to try. The following year, I broke the level by about $5000 and then after that, it was double then triple that figure. Four years later I was quadruple the so called income ceiling.

I am hoping by following some of the same mental exercises I went through back then will help me break this level I didn't even know I had.

Cheers....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following 9 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1010 (permalink)
 panama 
atalanta, ga
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: ninja trader
Trading: cl
 
Posts: 8 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 1,609 given, 6 received

Panda,

What type of mental exercises did you do to help you break those mental limits that you had?


Thanks
Panama

The following user says Thank You to panama for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1011 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received


panama View Post
Panda,

What type of mental exercises did you do to help you break those mental limits that you had?


Thanks
Panama

Well I took to heart something Jim Carey did. I wrote a check, a real one with a certain figure on it that I wanted to cash. Then I looked at it every day for a month, then every week for a year. At the end of the year I was able to cash it. I also took my current bank statement and whited out the current balance and hand wrote the number I wanted in there.

And I practiced visualizing the amount of business I needed every month to make this happen. And then I started telling people I was already doing that amount of business before I actually did...but only to people that couldn't verify of course!....

I basically told myself I could do it over and over again for a year.....

I told my boss, my team and my customers....every one that would listen.....I made myself accountable to every one. And I worked my butt off. There were day's I never saw daylight. At the office long before it got light, windowless office, leave long after it was dark. I did that for a year until I knew I would make the goal and then backed off.

Funny thing was, once I broke the barrier, higher and higher levels came easier and easier without all the extra work. My highest grossing year I worked the least. I made well into the mid six figures, far more than what Obama says is "the richest American's" and traveled 14 weeks that year. Some of it totally out of communication for days and days. When I was in the office, I never worked past 6PM and never on weekends. I basically had a part time job making what was for me incredible money.

Anyway, that worked for me. I also had some coaching both business specific as well as general life coaching. All of that helped.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
 
(login for full post details)
  #1012 (permalink)
 AttitudeTrader 
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, T4
Broker: IQFeed
Trading: 6E
 
AttitudeTrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 358 since Oct 2009
Thanks: 6,868 given, 867 received


PandaWarrior View Post
Well I took to heart something Jim Carey did. I wrote a check, a real one with a certain figure on it that I wanted to cash. Then I looked at it every day for a month, then every week for a year. At the end of the year I was able to cash it. I also took my current bank statement and whited out the current balance and hand wrote the number I wanted in there.

That's fantastic. Thanks for sharing a story like that. It's great to hear something like that from someone "real" - not an author or guru.

I did a similar thing when I got my 1099 from my broker this year. I made $70 profit for 2011. They send my statements as PDF's so I opened my 1099 in Paint and changed it so it says "$70,000."

I printed it out and hung it on the wall in my office, but I haven't been looking at it lately. In other words I haven't been using it like I should; like you describe.

In looking at it now I think that I need to change the amount to something that has more "meaning" to me (and looks more "real"), but you've inspired me to put it on the desktop of my computer here so I can see it every day.

Thanks again!


"Is it hard? Not if you have the right attitude. It's having the right attitude that's hard." - Robert Pirsig
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Follow me on Twitter
The following 6 users say Thank You to AttitudeTrader for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1013 (permalink)
 madLyfe 
Des Moines, Iowa
 
Experience: None
Platform: Ninja, TOS
Broker: AMP/CQG, TOS
Trading: CL, TF, GC
 
madLyfe's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,644 since Feb 2011
Thanks: 9,220 given, 1,015 received


D4YTR4D3R View Post
That's fantastic. Thanks for sharing a story like that. It's great to hear something like that from someone "real" - not an author or guru.

I did a similar thing when I got my 1099 from my broker this year. I made $70 profit for 2011. They send my statements as PDF's so I opened my 1099 in Paint and changed it so it says "$70,000."

I printed it out and hung it on the wall in my office, but I haven't been looking at it lately. In other words I haven't been using it like I should; like you describe.

In looking at it now I think that I need to change the amount to something that has more "meaning" to me (and looks more "real"), but you've inspired me to put it on the desktop of my computer here so I can see it every day.

Thanks again!


btw did you have to make them correct it and send you a new one?

dont believe anything you hear and only half of what you see

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following 2 users say Thank You to madLyfe for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1014 (permalink)
 AttitudeTrader 
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, T4
Broker: IQFeed
Trading: 6E
 
AttitudeTrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 358 since Oct 2009
Thanks: 6,868 given, 867 received


madLyfe View Post
btw did you have to make them correct it and send you a new one?

Still waiting...

"Is it hard? Not if you have the right attitude. It's having the right attitude that's hard." - Robert Pirsig
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Follow me on Twitter
The following user says Thank You to AttitudeTrader for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1015 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received

Seems like every time I decide to be aggressive, thats when I should have laid off, and every time I elect to lay off, thats when I should have been aggressive. Thats a disturbing set of circumstances.

Deciding when to go balls to the wall and when to take a walk looks like the hardest part of the game. Great signals that look like runners turn out to be duds and crappy looking set ups turn out to be fantastic winners......

Solution:

1. Be aggressive all the time and take what you get.
2. Learn a new style of trading that attempts to predict these kinds of days...Market Profile comes to mind.
3. More screen time with my current method, looking for commonalities that might identify certain types of days and trade accordingly.


I am leaning toward #3. Case in point. Opening range plays. I have a somewhat proven theory about opening ranges. IF they are large, expect consolidation. If narrow, expect more of a trending day. What do evidence do I have to support this? Nothing more than almost 2 years of watching CL. Opening ranges larger than about 25 ticks almost always lead to chop. Safer to not trade or trade the extremes of the OR. If its a very large range, you can make some decent money in it but still have to be careful.

So far, I'm positive this week. Yesterday was a stop out day. Two stops in a row. First one was good trade gone bad, second one was a great trade terribly mismanaged. First one was an acceptable loser. The second one was not. I hate losing due to stupidity. Somewhere there is a switch that turns off or at least dials down the stupidness a bit......however, emotions rule the day, therefore working with emotions is the opposite of stupid.

Today I could do no wrong. Largest one day PnL since maybe last summer. 5 total trades, 1 loser.

I was expecting a rollover today that would test the lows after a trend line touch. What I got instead was rollover lite. It tested the 50% level for quite a while but now appears like it may try to retest the highs after hours.

Anyway, I'm pretty pleased with today's results.

Cheers

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following 10 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1016 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NT
Broker: TD Ameritrade, Dorman/Zenfire
Trading: CL,ES
 
VinceVirgil's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,752 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 2,144 given, 9,222 received


PandaWarrior View Post
Seems like every time I decide to be aggressive, thats when I should have laid off, and every time I elect to lay off, thats when I should have been aggressive. Thats a disturbing set of circumstances.

Deciding when to go balls to the wall and when to take a walk looks like the hardest part of the game. Great signals that look like runners turn out to be duds and crappy looking set ups turn out to be fantastic winners......

Solution:

1. Be aggressive all the time and take what you get.
2. Learn a new style of trading that attempts to predict these kinds of days...Market Profile comes to mind.
3. More screen time with my current method, looking for commonalities that might identify certain types of days and trade accordingly.


I am leaning toward #3. Case in point. Opening range plays. I have a somewhat proven theory about opening ranges. IF they are large, expect consolidation. If narrow, expect more of a trending day. What do evidence do I have to support this? Nothing more than almost 2 years of watching CL. Opening ranges larger than about 25 ticks almost always lead to chop. Safer to not trade or trade the extremes of the OR. If its a very large range, you can make some decent money in it but still have to be careful.

So far, I'm positive this week. Yesterday was a stop out day. Two stops in a row. First one was good trade gone bad, second one was a great trade terribly mismanaged. First one was an acceptable loser. The second one was not. I hate losing due to stupidity. Somewhere there is a switch that turns off or at least dials down the stupidness a bit......however, emotions rule the day, therefore working with emotions is the opposite of stupid.

Today I could do no wrong. Largest one day PnL since maybe last summer. 5 total trades, 1 loser.

I was expecting a rollover today that would test the lows after a trend line touch. What I got instead was rollover lite. It tested the 50% level for quite a while but now appears like it may try to retest the highs after hours.

Anyway, I'm pretty pleased with today's results.

Cheers

Do you take into consideration previous sessions? Like the ON, or the last few days?

Talked with ElDuque at Rancho Dinero, and he had some intersting insight with reference to the CL contract.

Because it is so liquid, he recognises that CL does respects levels fairly well. Levels like previous highs and lows of past sessions, previous areas of support and resistance. Some of it is market profile based, but really, on a 5 minute, its a trend line where price bounced a few times.

I only mention this because I found it very unsetlling to trade the day based on the opening range and the overnight only. By incorporating a broader context, I have more confidence, which helped me to better trade management.

Here is an example from today...

After the move up at 7.00am, I looked at support at 8920. But not till much later in the session.

Failed break higher at 9:40...well that was what I anticipated as HOD.

11:10 failed break lower again later...8926

Anyway, thats what i saw...

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	CL 09-12 (5 Min)  7_26_2012.jpg
Views:	140
Size:	122.6 KB
ID:	82791   Click image for larger version

Name:	CL 09-12 (5 Momentum)momo  7_26_2012.jpg
Views:	142
Size:	150.0 KB
ID:	82792  
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following 7 users say Thank You to VinceVirgil for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1017 (permalink)
 Anagami 
Market Wizard
Cancun, Mexico
 
Experience: Advanced
Trading: NYSE Stocks
 
Anagami's Avatar
 
Posts: 871 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 609 given, 1,963 received


PandaWarrior View Post
Seems like every time I decide to be aggressive, thats when I should have laid off, and every time I elect to lay off, thats when I should have been aggressive. Thats a disturbing set of circumstances.

Deciding when to go balls to the wall and when to take a walk looks like the hardest part of the game. Great signals that look like runners turn out to be duds and crappy looking set ups turn out to be fantastic winners......

Solution:

1. Be aggressive all the time and take what you get.
2. Learn a new style of trading that attempts to predict these kinds of days...Market Profile comes to mind.
3. More screen time with my current method, looking for commonalities that might identify certain types of days and trade accordingly.


I am leaning toward #3. Case in point. Opening range plays. I have a somewhat proven theory about opening ranges. IF they are large, expect consolidation. If narrow, expect more of a trending day. What do evidence do I have to support this? Nothing more than almost 2 years of watching CL. Opening ranges larger than about 25 ticks almost always lead to chop. Safer to not trade or trade the extremes of the OR. If its a very large range, you can make some decent money in it but still have to be careful.

So far, I'm positive this week. Yesterday was a stop out day. Two stops in a row. First one was good trade gone bad, second one was a great trade terribly mismanaged. First one was an acceptable loser. The second one was not. I hate losing due to stupidity. Somewhere there is a switch that turns off or at least dials down the stupidness a bit......however, emotions rule the day, therefore working with emotions is the opposite of stupid.

Today I could do no wrong. Largest one day PnL since maybe last summer. 5 total trades, 1 loser.

I was expecting a rollover today that would test the lows after a trend line touch. What I got instead was rollover lite. It tested the 50% level for quite a while but now appears like it may try to retest the highs after hours.

Anyway, I'm pretty pleased with today's results.

Cheers

If that's true, then avoid great looking setups and always take duds. Another way to say this is: pull the trigger only on the non-obvious trades. Just my 2 cents.

"The mind is its own place, and in itself can make a heaven of hell, a hell of heaven." - Milton
The following 2 users say Thank You to Anagami for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1018 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received


VinceVirgil View Post
Do you take into consideration previous sessions? Like the ON, or the last few days?

Talked with ElDuque at Rancho Dinero, and he had some intersting insight with reference to the CL contract.

Because it is so liquid, he recognises that CL does respects levels fairly well. Levels like previous highs and lows of past sessions, previous areas of support and resistance. Some of it is market profile based, but really, on a 5 minute, its a trend line where price bounced a few times.

I only mention this because I found it very unsetlling to trade the day based on the opening range and the overnight only. By incorporating a broader context, I have more confidence, which helped me to better trade management.

Here is an example from today...

After the move up at 7.00am, I looked at support at 8920. But not till much later in the session.

Failed break higher at 9:40...well that was what I anticipated as HOD.

11:10 failed break lower again later...8926

Anyway, thats what i saw...

I use the ON and I do not trade based on the OR. I only use it as a measure of what the day might hold in terms of trend vs non trend.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following 6 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1019 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received

2nd best day in a while. I didnt hold like I should have but to be fair, all the buying tails on the short side really freaked me out. I started taking what I thought I could get in a reasonable amount of time. I should have just held. My targets eventually got hit but in around 2-3 times the amount of time I normally will see targets hit.

Anyway, a good day that could have been great.

I only took signal trades today. I know I have an edge there and am getting more and more comfortable with them. I am also seeing counter trend trades fairly well although not taking those. I had 40 potential ticks on CT trades today. No regrets not taking them as they are currently NOT in my trade plan.

Yesterday was my kid's 10th birthday. She had her special breakfast she likes on holidays and birthdays, her favorite sunday lunch, then dinner at her favorite buffet last night. This place has a chocolate fountain she's in love with but it was out of order last night....she was disappointed but got over it like a trooper and indulged in chocolate covered strawberries instead. Oddly enough, she did not want a party but instead wanted to spend it with just my wife and I. Odd......we'll be throwing her a party in a few weeks after school starts and all her friends are back from vacation.

Cheers

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following 9 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1020 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received

I believed we would see a break out from these recent levels we've been trading at. I also figured it would come today or tomorrow after inventory report.

Well, we got it today. I was able to take advantage of it and ended more than 2.5X my previous best day. I made more today than I did all month. I am quite happy about that!

Anyway, one more week til my kid's back in school so doing some errands with her today and I think I'll get her a coffee to celebrate my win today.

Cheers.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following 5 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1021 (permalink)
 soumi71 
Toronto
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: Zen-Fire
Trading: CL , 6E
 
Posts: 200 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 759 given, 271 received


PandaWarrior View Post
2nd best day in a while. I didnt hold like I should have but to be fair, all the buying tails on the short side really freaked me out. I started taking what I thought I could get in a reasonable amount of time. I should have just held. My targets eventually got hit but in around 2-3 times the amount of time I normally will see targets hit.

Anyway, a good day that could have been great.

I only took signal trades today. I know I have an edge there and am getting more and more comfortable with them. I am also seeing counter trend trades fairly well although not taking those. I had 40 potential ticks on CT trades today. No regrets not taking them as they are currently NOT in my trade plan.

Yesterday was my kid's 10th birthday. She had her special breakfast she likes on holidays and birthdays, her favorite sunday lunch, then dinner at her favorite buffet last night. This place has a chocolate fountain she's in love with but it was out of order last night....she was disappointed but got over it like a trooper and indulged in chocolate covered strawberries instead. Oddly enough, she did not want a party but instead wanted to spend it with just my wife and I. Odd......we'll be throwing her a party in a few weeks after school starts and all her friends are back from vacation.

Cheers

Hey Brian , always a pleasure reading your thread , Hapy Birthday to your baby , Wishing you all a joyful life ,
Funny how kids love that chocolate fountain Lol , my kids do too
Cheers
Soumi

"Risk more than others think safe.
Dream more than others think practical.
Expect more than others think possible.
Care more than others think wise"
The following 3 users say Thank You to soumi71 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1022 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received

I took yesterday off. I was exhausted for some reason and just could not work. I planned on working today as well and totally overslept. I guess somethings going on. Not sure what it is but I'm not working again until at least Monday. It feels like my body needs rest.

Could be all the back issues, the being sick, the heat, the pressure from trading,etc....but just feels like a soft crash.....

Til next week then.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following 5 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1023 (permalink)
 tderrick 
Nashville, Tennessee
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja / Jigsaw / 9G
Broker: AMP / CQG
Trading: NQ, YM and ES
 
tderrick's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,588 since Sep 2010
Thanks: 4,260 given, 2,529 received


PandaWarrior View Post
I took yesterday off. I was exhausted for some reason and just could not work. I planned on working today as well and totally overslept. I guess somethings going on. Not sure what it is but I'm not working again until at least Monday. It feels like my body needs rest.

Could be all the back issues, the being sick, the heat, the pressure from trading,etc....but just feels like a soft crash.....

Til next week then.


This summer is hitting me hard also, brother.... Everyday seems like a struggle. Must be the heat...

...and.... we ain't getting any younger

You'll come around... take it easy for a while.


AJ
Nashville, Tennessee


"Life On The Edge of SR"
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following 3 users say Thank You to tderrick for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1024 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received

Been watching the Olympics quite a bit. I've never really thought about it but these guys train for years to become good enough to enter a race that might last all of 9 seconds. Once they qualify for the final, there is the waiting around for the race day and then the entrance to the arena, more waiting and then finally there is the actual race.

They are deathly still for a second or two and then bam.....they explode with all the energy and strength they have. If a competitor seems to be gaining on them, they can attempt to increase the pace they run or swim at, in other words, they can try harder.

I was thinking about this in terms of trading. There is a lot of time learning the craft, which basically consists of learning how to wait, then there is the part where you click the button which lasts about 1 second, then there's more waiting.

We require the same level of discipline an Olympic athlete requires to become successful yet when our waiting is over, there is no explosion of physical activity to release the pent up adrenaline. Instead, we click and then we wait some more. No wonder so many traders fail. Once the waiting for a set up is over, its just more waiting. No release. Its more like a marathon than the 100 meter sprint, we wait and wait, the race starts and then we have to wait a long time to determine the outcome.

As a trader, we need to prepare for the long term. On a daily basis, I think this means a trader must have something that occupies the time between set ups. And then have something that allows for physical exertion to expel the tension build up.

Something to think about.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following 13 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1025 (permalink)
 gtichauer 
Argentina
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja
Broker: Zen Fire / IB
Trading: ES, TF, 6E, CL
 
gtichauer's Avatar
 
Posts: 379 since Jul 2009
Thanks: 807 given, 298 received


PandaWarrior View Post
Been watching the Olympics quite a bit. I've never really thought about it but these guys train for years to become good enough to enter a race that might last all of 9 seconds. Once they qualify for the final, there is the waiting around for the race day and then the entrance to the arena, more waiting and then finally there is the actual race.

They are deathly still for a second or two and then bam.....they explode with all the energy and strength they have. If a competitor seems to be gaining on them, they can attempt to increase the pace they run or swim at, in other words, they can try harder.

I was thinking about this in terms of trading. There is a lot of time learning the craft, which basically consists of learning how to wait, then there is the part where you click the button which lasts about 1 second, then there's more waiting.

We require the same level of discipline an Olympic athlete requires to become successful yet when our waiting is over, there is no explosion of physical activity to release the pent up adrenaline. Instead, we click and then we wait some more. No wonder so many traders fail. Once the waiting for a set up is over, its just more waiting. No release. Its more like a marathon than the 100 meter sprint, we wait and wait, the race starts and then we have to wait a long time to determine the outcome.

As a trader, we need to prepare for the long term. On a daily basis, I think this means a trader must have something that occupies the time between set ups. And then have something that allows for physical exertion to expel the tension build up.

Something to think about.

Great analogy !!! Totally agree....ideal would be to have a gym in your office....so you enter a trade and go to let some energy go to work the anxiaty.....or if no room for a gym enter a trade and do let say some crouches, fix bycicle, weights, abs, etc....

GT
Follow me on Twitter
The following 4 users say Thank You to gtichauer for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1026 (permalink)
 tderrick 
Nashville, Tennessee
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja / Jigsaw / 9G
Broker: AMP / CQG
Trading: NQ, YM and ES
 
tderrick's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,588 since Sep 2010
Thanks: 4,260 given, 2,529 received


PandaWarrior View Post
Been watching the Olympics quite a bit. I've never really thought about it but these guys train for years to become good enough to enter a race that might last all of 9 seconds. Once they qualify for the final, there is the waiting around for the race day and then the entrance to the arena, more waiting and then finally there is the actual race.

They are deathly still for a second or two and then bam.....they explode with all the energy and strength they have. If a competitor seems to be gaining on them, they can attempt to increase the pace they run or swim at, in other words, they can try harder.

I was thinking about this in terms of trading. There is a lot of time learning the craft, which basically consists of learning how to wait, then there is the part where you click the button which lasts about 1 second, then there's more waiting.

We require the same level of discipline an Olympic athlete requires to become successful yet when our waiting is over, there is no explosion of physical activity to release the pent up adrenaline. Instead, we click and then we wait some more. No wonder so many traders fail. Once the waiting for a set up is over, its just more waiting. No release. Its more like a marathon than the 100 meter sprint, we wait and wait, the race starts and then we have to wait a long time to determine the outcome.

As a trader, we need to prepare for the long term. On a daily basis, I think this means a trader must have something that occupies the time between set ups. And then have something that allows for physical exertion to expel the tension build up.

Something to think about.

Yes... I remember a while back, something that @Private Banker said. "This really is a marathon"

It stuck.

We had better all invest in a very comfortable chair, Because we are about to spend a great part of
the rest of our lives in it


AJ
Nashville, Tennessee


"Life On The Edge of SR"
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following 5 users say Thank You to tderrick for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1027 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
Site Administrator
Swing Trader
Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Trading: Futures & Crypto
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 50,093 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,554 given, 98,580 received


tderrick View Post
Yes... I remember a while back, something that @Privatebanker said. "This really is a marathon"

It stuck.

We had better all invest in a very comfortable chair, Because we are about to spend a great part of
the rest of our lives in it

There is a space in Ben's username. @Private Banker is the correct username

Mike

We're here to help -- just ask

For the best trading education, watch our webinars
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list

Follow us on Twitter, YouTube, and Facebook

Support our community as an Elite Member:
https://futures.io/elite/

Visit other sites? Please spread the word about your experience with our community!
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following 3 users say Thank You to Big Mike for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1028 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received


PandaWarrior View Post
I was driving along today thinking about a few things and it dawned on me that I have a mental block about a certain profit level. When I start getting close to it, I start looking for reasons to stay out of the market instead of looking for valid trades. I've even noticed I either intentionally or subconsciously make up reasons to be away from the computer or invent some other distractions....today, a perfectly good signal came, I was already within a few dollars of this magic number and I saw it happening in front of me. One of my trading buddies that knows my signals asked me if I had taken it. I replied no because I was typing something. I was typing but certainly could have stopped for the two seconds it took to place the order. Sure enough, that trade was a winner as was the next one I saw a bit later. Neither of which I took.

So gonna take this weekend and think about why I freak out at this profit number. I know I had a mental block about a certain income threshold in the mortgage business. It took me two years to break it. The first year I got within $700 of it and I remember electing to NOT close a piece of business in the calendar month because I was afraid I couldn't actually get it closed in time to qualify but I used the Christmas holiday as an excuse to not even attempt it. I certainly could have gotten it done, of that I am sure, but was afraid to try. The following year, I broke the level by about $5000 and then after that, it was double then triple that figure. Four years later I was quadruple the so called income ceiling.

I am hoping by following some of the same mental exercises I went through back then will help me break this level I didn't even know I had.

Cheers....

Well last week I think I broke this income level thing. I've been averaging a few dollars more than this mental threshold block I had for a few days now but last tuesday I had a break out day. I hit more than 7 times this so called threshold. It happened because I got to a place where I as already above the threshold by a couple of hundred dollars and I almost quit right there. But I decided to keep trading and see if i could smash the mental block.

So next trade I went max size for my risk tolerance, entered the trade and off it went. I got lucky in that it was a winner right away but it just kept running. I took the target off, took 1/2 the position off and let the rest run a bit more. Right about that time, I lost focus and went into what I call the emotional fog of war. I couldn't think or function rationally. I just closed the remaining position at that point. It ran another 50 ticks or so from that point but that was by far my largest trade ever.

I stopped trading at that point, walked away from the charts and didn't come back to them until Thursday. Even then I didn't trade. I just watched. Actually I slept in on Thursday because I couldn't seem to wake up early like normal. When I finally got up, the trading day was half over already. Same on Friday. I think the emotion of having a huge winning day was the straw that broke the camels back on the long road I have been on.

I've slept more the last few days than I have in probably two years. I feel better now than I have in a long time and ready to go back to work for real on Monday.

Tuesday was an outlier. I won't be trying to duplicate it anytime soon. But somewhere between the old mental threshold and that outlier is a reasonable spread to look for every day. But more importantly, I now know to stop looking for a specific number every day and instead just look for the setups, take them and if I get 1 set up or 10, I just take them and whatever I get out of it is what I get.

No expectations, just trade.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following 12 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1029 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
Site Administrator
Swing Trader
Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Trading: Futures & Crypto
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 50,093 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,554 given, 98,580 received


PandaWarrior View Post
I've slept more the last few days than I have in probably two years. I feel better now than I have in a long time and ready to go back to work for real on Monday.

Two things the body needs more than anything else. High quality interrupted rest, and high quality fuel (food/water).

Mike

We're here to help -- just ask

For the best trading education, watch our webinars
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list

Follow us on Twitter, YouTube, and Facebook

Support our community as an Elite Member:
https://futures.io/elite/

Visit other sites? Please spread the word about your experience with our community!
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following 6 users say Thank You to Big Mike for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1030 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received

Didn't trade yesterday. Instead I just watched and marked. There were only a couple of signals anyway although it would have been a nice trading day from a profit standpoint. Can't really explain why I didn't trade. To be totally honest, I just didn't feel like it. I was rested and alert but mentally I wasn't ready to trade.

Today I traded. I got exactly two signals. Both of which I took. One was a winner I bailed out of early for a small profit, the second I took a loss on even though the trade premise was not over. I then took the exact same trade again, made most of my money back and then watched as price just climbed and climbed with no signals for me. I finally got short at the end, made enough money to be positive on the day and called it a day.

The mechanics of my trading are pretty well set now. Signals are clear, entries are easy most of the time, being disciplined on the exits will probably always be an area of improvement the rest of my career. I am ok with that.

Cheers.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following 9 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1031 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received

I've implemented a spreadsheet that documents the entry time, the risk and the potential ticks available based on how I trade. At the end of the day, I am trying to get my actual totals to match the spreadsheets total gross. No coulda woulda shoulda trades allowed. Only actual signals and only real results. The vast majority of the time when I exit a trade early before it reaches my target, it turns out I should have held it. This could be either trailing my stops to early and getting an unnecessary loss or ending up with smaller profits than what was otherwise available had I held to my original target.

The purpose of the spreadsheet is to build some statistics over time to give me more confidence to hold trades longer and to have some sort of standard to meet in terms of available vs actual.

In any event, I took all my signals today, mismanaged one of them, ended up with an unnecessary loss, re-entered the same trade at the same price, held it for quite a while, and eventually got my PnL to within a couple hundred dollars of where the spreadsheet said it should be. A decently profitable day.

Cheers.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following 9 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1032 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received

Week one of the spreadsheet experiment. I am both disgusted and encouraged. Disgusted because the profit potential from the trades I actually took was very nice. This does NOT include any kind of runner. Just targets based on risk. However, my actual PnL does not come close to this number.

Encouraged because even though its only one week, the edge I've come to believe in does in fact actually exist. And its a pretty good one as well.

The difference comes from interfering with the process with to much thinking. As I was speaking with my friend that helped me create the spreadsheet today, the edge is diminished by thought. Execution is critical and effective execution is reduced once a trader starts thinking he or she knows better than the law of large numbers.

Thinking to much leads to over trading, stop mismanagement and premature exits. All of which reduce actual profit vs available profit.

Next week my plan is to stick with the edge and focus on one thing only. Don't touch the damn mouse! My trading is far better when I leave it alone. The spreadsheet has proven that to me.

Time for the weekend....

Cheers.......

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following 10 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1033 (permalink)
 tDave 
Ann Arbor, USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja
Trading: eminis
 
Posts: 6 since Apr 2011
Thanks: 7 given, 16 received

"As you believe, so it shall be done unto you."

The Greatest Teacher taught us this lesson almost 2,000 years ago. Many have repackaged his teachings. Thank you for sharing your story. Although it is not about trading it is about how beliving and having faith then applying yourself to your beliefs will make them come true.

The following 3 users say Thank You to tDave for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1034 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received

Something to remember...

Less is more....and stay focused on the essential.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Attached Thumbnails
The PandaWarrior Chronicles-disciplined-pursuit-less-greg-mckeown-harvard-business-review.pdf  
Started this thread
The following 13 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1035 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NT
Broker: TD Ameritrade, Dorman/Zenfire
Trading: CL,ES
 
VinceVirgil's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,752 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 2,144 given, 9,222 received


PandaWarrior View Post
Something to remember...

Less is more....and stay focused on the essential.

Good post. Interesting perspective.

Thanks for posting it.

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following 2 users say Thank You to VinceVirgil for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1036 (permalink)
 madLyfe 
Des Moines, Iowa
 
Experience: None
Platform: Ninja, TOS
Broker: AMP/CQG, TOS
Trading: CL, TF, GC
 
madLyfe's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,644 since Feb 2011
Thanks: 9,220 given, 1,015 received


PandaWarrior View Post
Something to remember...

Less is more....and stay focused on the essential.

i actually just got done reading this article.. not totally on point, but i can see some similarity in your recent philosophy:


http://lifehacker.com/5934707/the-disciplined-pursuit-of-less
If success is a catalyst for failure because it leads to the "undisciplined pursuit of more," then one simple antidote is the disciplined pursuit of less. Not just haphazardly saying no, but purposefully, deliberately, and strategically eliminating the nonessentials. Not just once a year as part of a planning meeting, but constantly reducing, focusing, and simplifying. Not just getting rid of the obvious time wasters, but being willing to cut out really terrific opportunities as well. Few appear to have the courage to live this principle, which may be why it differentiates successful people and organizations from the very successful ones.

The Disciplined Pursuit of Less

dont believe anything you hear and only half of what you see

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following 3 users say Thank You to madLyfe for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1037 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received

I've thought long and hard about trading less to make more, I've heard many others talk about it in seminars from traders and trading psychologists alike. Some call it decision fatigue. The longer you trade, the more tired you become and eventually your brain does whatever it takes to relieve the tension of having to make constant decisions throughout the day.

This leads to the classic make money in the morning, give it away in the afternoon.

My very first mentor in trading said come to the market, get your ticks and stop. He traded for 8 ticks a day in ES. I became obsessed with this goal and it grew ever more elusive. One of my trading buddies even said for me to stop being a pussy and trade the entire session like a job. I took this to heart and over the last year or so, have spent the entire trading session in front of the computer except for certain breaks of a personal nature. I never gave up on the idea of trading a defined edge and leveraging up as quickly as possible to achieve my money related goals.

The last couple of weeks, I've been experimenting with a spreadsheet that tracks not just my actual trades but also a few alternate exit possibilities and compares them. It has a running total for each trade and I have noticed something, I make money early most days and give it back as time goes on. The net result is this. I most often end the day somewhere less than had I stopped after the first 2-3 trades. Today it was 2 trades and yesterday it was four. This is true across all three potential exit points I have been tracking. I've experimented with a fixed target, this is great on choppier days. A 1:1RR system, this is nice because most of the time I don't have to hold very long and a 1:1.5RR. I am also looking at larger fixed targets for my instrument but that's a work in progress. Over the course of the week, the 1:1.5RR has had a far better PnL than any of the others. Each was profitable but the larger RR made the week very rewarding.

My trading friend has made the decision to trade for one hour each day. Well actually circumstances dictate those hours for him but it has served him well. The pressure to take the valid signals that come early make him be more aggressive to take them as opposed to passing all the while knowing others will come, is making him a better trader.

More importantly, its making me a better trader. Starting next week, I am doing a couple of new things.

1. Continue the spreadsheet tracking.
2. Leverage up more quickly than I have been. I have a defined edge and as long as I maintain the ratio of risk per trade to my daily stop, I am fine.
3. Stop trading after the first 90 minutes.

I'll see how this goes next week and report back.

For now though, its been a fun and insightful week.

Cheers............

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following 12 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1038 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
Site Administrator
Swing Trader
Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Trading: Futures & Crypto
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 50,093 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,554 given, 98,580 received

What about those that trade bigger time frames and charts? We aren't taking trade after trade after trade all day long. We are instead waiting most of the time.

I assume that you may be trading in a style where you are long one minute, and short the next. This kind of thing would definitely cause fatigue, in my opinion.

Just a thought, you might consider taking several steps back. Cut size down, change to micros if you need to, keep risk the same but trade a bigger chart. Trades are less frequent, but encompass more movement. It's definitely what I prefer having done it the other way for a long time.

Have a good weekend,

Mike

We're here to help -- just ask

For the best trading education, watch our webinars
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list

Follow us on Twitter, YouTube, and Facebook

Support our community as an Elite Member:
https://futures.io/elite/

Visit other sites? Please spread the word about your experience with our community!
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following 7 users say Thank You to Big Mike for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1039 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received


Big Mike View Post
What about those that trade bigger time frames and charts? We aren't taking trade after trade after trade all day long. We are instead waiting most of the time.

I assume that you may be trading in a style where you are long one minute, and short the next. This kind of thing would definitely cause fatigue, in my opinion.

Just a thought, you might consider taking several steps back. Cut size down, change to micros if you need to, keep risk the same but trade a bigger chart. Trades are less frequent, but encompass more movement. It's definitely what I prefer having done it the other way for a long time.

Have a good weekend,

Mike

I agree, but you still have to make a decision at least once per bar. Increasing the time frame reduces the number of decisions but still requires you sit at the machine the entire time or perhaps even longer. I suspect some will be even more bored with that and do boredom induced stupid things even more. The point is, trade a time frame and style that suits your personality and skill set.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following 4 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1040 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
Site Administrator
Swing Trader
Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Trading: Futures & Crypto
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 50,093 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,554 given, 98,580 received


PandaWarrior View Post
I agree, but you still have to make a decision at least once per bar. Increasing the time frame reduces the number of decisions but still requires you sit at the machine the entire time or perhaps even longer. I suspect some will be even more bored with that and do boredom induced stupid things even more. The point is, trade a time frame and style that suits your personality and skill set.

Definitely not bar by bar, more like level to level ... So yes, tons of patience required. But i think that is true of all trading.

Sent from my DROID RAZR using Tapatalk 2

We're here to help -- just ask

For the best trading education, watch our webinars
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list

Follow us on Twitter, YouTube, and Facebook

Support our community as an Elite Member:
https://futures.io/elite/

Visit other sites? Please spread the word about your experience with our community!
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following 5 users say Thank You to Big Mike for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1041 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received

Decent listen..... VanKar Trading | 2012-12-20 Trader Spotlight - Jodie

A word of advice to the trader....trade bigger, not more often...if you have an edge.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following 5 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1042 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following 9 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1043 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received

Today I failed miserably. My emotions ruled the day today. I am now ok with working with the emotions and am getting better but once in a while, they take over. Thankfully, I have a daily stop in place and it kicked in today.

I only made two mistakes regarding trade selection. The losses sprang from exiting winners to soon. For some reason, letting the winners ride is problematic. The solution that seems to work best is to just leave the room once a trade is in progress.

In all honesty, I felt like somehow I self sabotaged today. Like my subconscious was working against me to make sure I lost. Does this make sense? I am sick of that feeling. It doesn't come often but when it does, its sickening.

No more charts or second guessing today. I've done the review for today. Time to clear my head.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following 9 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1044 (permalink)
jaytrades
New York, USA
 
 
Posts: 80 since Jun 2011
Thanks: 22 given, 82 received


PandaWarrior View Post
Today I failed miserably. My emotions ruled the day today. I am now ok with working with the emotions and am getting better but once in a while, they take over. Thankfully, I have a daily stop in place and it kicked in today.

I only made two mistakes regarding trade selection. The losses sprang from exiting winners to soon. For some reason, letting the winners ride is problematic. The solution that seems to work best is to just leave the room once a trade is in progress.

In all honesty, I felt like somehow I self sabotaged today. Like my subconscious was working against me to make sure I lost. Does this make sense? I am sick of that feeling. It doesn't come often but when it does, its sickening.

No more charts or second guessing today. I've done the review for today. Time to clear my head.

Hi PandaWarrior, I've been working on my emo & psych forever it seems. Do you know what emotions kicked in and when? Were there any specific triggers that started them? Was the session a gain or a loss? Do you have a notebook for a journal that you use to dig deep and write everything you can possibly think of that relates to the trading and your feelings and thoughts and behaviors? Or do you pretty much know that this was a repeat of something you are already familiar with? Can you focus on what it was from your subconscious that may have influenced your conscious thoughts and decisions at specific times? I have found out shocking things that my subconscious was thinking and it was the driver of my behavior and influenced my conscious decision making so greatly that it was amazing to discover what I had in there....

The following 5 users say Thank You to jaytrades for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1045 (permalink)
 Superdoug3 
Vernon, BC, Canada
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Charts
Broker: Zaner Group (Transact)
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 103 since Apr 2010
Thanks: 113 given, 63 received

in the spirit of making a contribution and not of coaching. Your journal has made a contribution to me and as Big Mike says, we shouldn't let inexperience hold us back from contributing.
Your issue of Holding or Folding is an issue for me too. How about having set rules for when to Fold and always following them. These are Rules that I am working on for Get Out Now
GET OUT NOW
1. Do not enter a trade in Congestion - unless a trap presents itself
2. If Price is in congestion for 6 bars – get out at BE or +1 tick
3. If Price goes against my trade for 3 bars.
4. If the trade is a runner, then OK to be in Congestion since you are already profitable on trade. Choose a method of moving SL such as trailing 2 bars when in strong trend and leaving at BE when not in strong Trend

Note Congestion is 4 overlapping bars at least 1 of which is a doji
A Trap is a price fake that brings amateur traders into trade and immediately price reverses.

I understand that your issue is with letting Runner ride, so this may not be helpful.

The following 4 users say Thank You to Superdoug3 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1046 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received

I scalped this morning, all losers. Then I found an entry, set target many many ticks away and walked away. Target hit. Then I did it again. This time I picked a spot I felt it likely for price to reverse, set target and literally drove away. No trail stops, either full winner or loser. Normally I would not recommend this as a valid trading method but today it was the right thing to do.

I made 100 ticks between the two trades and recouped all the losses and finished up very very nicely.

Any lessons learned here? Not sure yet but sure was nice to come back to a green chart after being down this morning.

Lots to think about though.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following 7 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1047 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
Site Administrator
Swing Trader
Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Trading: Futures & Crypto
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 50,093 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,554 given, 98,580 received


PandaWarrior View Post
I scalped this morning, all losers. Then I found an entry, set target many many ticks away and walked away. Target hit. Then I did it again. This time I picked a spot I felt it likely for price to reverse, set target and literally drove away. No trail stops, either full winner or loser. Normally I would not recommend this as a valid trading method but today it was the right thing to do.

I made 100 ticks between the two trades and recouped all the losses and finished up very very nicely.

Any lessons learned here? Not sure yet but sure was nice to come back to a green chart after being down this morning.

Lots to think about though.

How was your risk/reward? If it was a good ratio and the trade setup met your plan, then go for it! I remember FT71 saying in the webinars that he believes majority of people mis-manage their trade and would be better off just walking away.

Mike

We're here to help -- just ask

For the best trading education, watch our webinars
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list

Follow us on Twitter, YouTube, and Facebook

Support our community as an Elite Member:
https://futures.io/elite/

Visit other sites? Please spread the word about your experience with our community!
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following 7 users say Thank You to Big Mike for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1048 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received


Big Mike View Post
How was your risk/reward? If it was a good ratio and the trade setup met your plan, then go for it! I remember FT71 saying in the webinars that he believes majority of people mis-manage their trade and would be better off just walking away.

Mike

R:R was about 5:1 on both.....

however, the stop on the first one needed to be under the previous swing, which wasn't that far away and so I went with it.......

Both set ups were normal set ups I would otherwise have scalped out for 1.5 or 2X risk....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following 4 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1049 (permalink)
iPlayGames
Tokyo Japan
 
 
Posts: 39 since Oct 2011
Thanks: 45 given, 50 received


PandaWarrior View Post
I scalped this morning, all losers. Then I found an entry, set target many many ticks away and walked away. Target hit. Then I did it again. This time I picked a spot I felt it likely for price to reverse, set target and literally drove away. No trail stops, either full winner or loser. Normally I would not recommend this as a valid trading method but today it was the right thing to do.

I made 100 ticks between the two trades and recouped all the losses and finished up very very nicely.

Any lessons learned here? Not sure yet but sure was nice to come back to a green chart after being down this morning.

Lots to think about though.

Haha, the same happened to me, though I only got 1 runner instead of 2. it was an experiment today, I decided to stop micro-managing my trade and set likely target and tried not to look at the chart too often. I literally had to restrain myself from intervening a couple of times. but it was such a refreshing experience. I watched CL jumping up and down, setting traps and then trap the trappers, again and again, without half the usual fear and dread and hopeful prayers. and when it finally hit my target, I felt serene. I felt that I've discovered another possible way to trade, which probably much more suited my personality. there is still much to investigate and experiment, but I'm just glad to find somebody who had shared a similar experience.

The following 7 users say Thank You to iPlayGames for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1050 (permalink)
 monpere 
Bala, PA, USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: Mirus, IB
Trading: SPY, Oil, Euro
 
monpere's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,858 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 300 given, 3,339 received


PandaWarrior View Post
I scalped this morning, all losers. Then I found an entry, set target many many ticks away and walked away. Target hit. Then I did it again. This time I picked a spot I felt it likely for price to reverse, set target and literally drove away. No trail stops, either full winner or loser. Normally I would not recommend this as a valid trading method but today it was the right thing to do.

I made 100 ticks between the two trades and recouped all the losses and finished up very very nicely.

Any lessons learned here? Not sure yet but sure was nice to come back to a green chart after being down this morning.

Lots to think about though.

The lesson may be a bad one. The market has a way of rewarding bad behavior just to lure you in, and then put the smack down on you hard next time. I haven't been following your thread so I don't know how this fits in with your normal trading, but this seems to be arbitrary, I may be wrong. I use to do this out of frustration after losing several trades, but your motive might be different, you should examine that just in case. Unless this is part of an experiment in determining if your method can support larger risk/reward, I would not advise just going with it without backtesting it.

The following 6 users say Thank You to monpere for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1051 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received


monpere View Post
The lesson may be a bad one. The market has a way of rewarding bad behavior just to lure you in, and then put the smack down on you hard next time. I haven't been following your thread so I don't know how this fits in with your normal trading, but this seems to be arbitrary, I may be wrong. I use to do this out of frustration after losing several trades, but your motive might be different, you should examine that just in case. Unless this is part of an experiment in determining if your method can support larger risk/reward, I would not advise just going with it without backtesting it.

I agree....I have been thinking about it and looking at average ticks from my typical entry I might expect. Been trading 1.5-2.0 RR for a while and I like it. But once in a while would be nice to grab a bigger one....

Food for thought is all it is at this point.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following 2 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1052 (permalink)
 Mercury 
PU , India
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja Trader
Trading: Nifty Futures
 
Mercury's Avatar
 
Posts: 51 since Aug 2010
Thanks: 148 given, 35 received

PW,

I have been following ur journal, its very helpful to understand my own trading issues.
Thanks for being consistent.
why r u not posting charts with ur trade/posts ? That will be good to see.

The following 2 users say Thank You to Mercury for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1053 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received


Mercury View Post
PW,

I have been following ur journal, its very helpful to understand my own trading issues.
Thanks for being consistent.
why r u not posting charts with ur trade/posts ? That will be good to see.

I'm glad you are enjoying the thread.

I dont post charts that often anymore for several reasons.

1. the chart posts were for me to keep a record of developing an edge and what the various stages of that looked like.

2. Early on, I wanted feed back about how to read a chart so I actively looked for that type of information from the futures.io (formerly BMT) community.

3. I used the charts as a way to look at my trades in hindsight and see how I was doing once the pressure of live trading was off.

Gradually over time the need for these three things has diminished and I know longer feel the need to document as closely the things I did. Trading is almost never about mechanicals. Those can be learned in a few hours or days at most. Its the time spent with learning your instrument, time spent knowing how to manage risk effectively, and most importantly, time spent knowing yourself.

Of late, the thread has turned more toward the mental side of the game and I expect that to continue.

Lastly, I'm not real sure how valuable it is for beginners to see to many different chart types. I know I spent way to much time changing things. You can't really develop any type of consistency by changing all the time. So rather than post charts with entries and exits, I choose to focus for the most part on the mental and emotional side of things.

Hope that answers your question.

Cheers....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following 8 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1054 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received

All the BSD's I've ever read about have a point at which they go all in....that trade makes their day/week/month/year/ career.

There seems to be a moment every day when it seems prudent to put on more size or hold for more ticks than normal. Where are those points? How do you decide that the risk you normally use can be doubled or tripled?

Is there such a point each day? I think so. If a position trader can load up if they see a long term opportunity setting up, why can't I? If I do, how much is to much?

Instead of trading the same size or dollar risk each trade, why not have an "A" set up for which you are willing to go balls to the wall? Maybe double up on size....or look to add aggressively if the trade is progressing your way quickly?

If you get a winner on the "A" trade, is it time to walk away for while? All day? Or just keep going?

Random thoughts.....I am sure there are random answers.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following 4 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1055 (permalink)
 Adamus 
London, UK
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, home-grown Java
Broker: IB/IQFeed
Trading: EUR/USD
 
Adamus's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,085 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 471 given, 786 received


PandaWarrior View Post
All the BSD's I've ever read about have a point at which they go all in....that trade makes their day/week/month/year/ career.

There seems to be a moment every day when it seems prudent to put on more size or hold for more ticks than normal. Where are those points? How do you decide that the risk you normally use can be doubled or tripled?

Is there such a point each day? I think so. If a position trader can load up if they see a long term opportunity setting up, why can't I? If I do, how much is to much?

Instead of trading the same size or dollar risk each trade, why not have an "A" set up for which you are willing to go balls to the wall? Maybe double up on size....or look to add aggressively if the trade is progressing your way quickly?

If you get a winner on the "A" trade, is it time to walk away for while? All day? Or just keep going?

Random thoughts.....I am sure there are random answers.


Oogway: [walking towards Po] Ah! I see that you have found the Sacred Peach Tree of Heavenly Wisdom!

Po: [Po turns around with a lot of peaches stuffed in his mouth] Oh! Is that what this is? I'm so sorry! I just thought it was a regular peach tree!


- not sure it's so relevant now I read it again but it made me laugh

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following 2 users say Thank You to Adamus for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1056 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received


Adamus View Post
Oogway: [walking towards Po] Ah! I see that you have found the Sacred Peach Tree of Heavenly Wisdom!

Po: [Po turns around with a lot of peaches stuffed in his mouth] Oh! Is that what this is? I'm so sorry! I just thought it was a regular peach tree!


- not sure it's so relevant now I read it again but it made me laugh



Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following user says Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1057 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011


PandaWarrior View Post
All the BSD's I've ever read about have a point at which they go all in....that trade makes their day/week/month/year/ career.

There seems to be a moment every day when it seems prudent to put on more size or hold for more ticks than normal. Where are those points? How do you decide that the risk you normally use can be doubled or tripled?

Is there such a point each day? I think so. If a position trader can load up if they see a long term opportunity setting up, why can't I? If I do, how much is to much?

Instead of trading the same size or dollar risk each trade, why not have an "A" set up for which you are willing to go balls to the wall? Maybe double up on size....or look to add aggressively if the trade is progressing your way quickly?

If you get a winner on the "A" trade, is it time to walk away for while? All day? Or just keep going?

Random thoughts.....I am sure there are random answers.



When you know, then it is time.

 
(login for full post details)
  #1058 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received

Saturday I was sitting in an easy chair reading a book when all of a sudden, out of the clear blue sky came a way to increase size once in a while.

But first some back story.

I spent the first 6 months of my trading journey trying to figure out multiple time frames. Intellectually I understood it but it never clicked for me. So I quite trying to understand and went on the path to find a simple one time frame trading method I could rely on.

Eventually I found an edge, have stuck with it and now I am trading some what satisfactorily. I struggle to hold a trade long enough sometimes and that is the major reason I am not very nicely profitable. My win rate is better than I thought I could get it even with the holding issue and overall, feel like I am on the right path.

But there has been that whole thing about having a great "A" set up. One where you could make a larger bet and have some reasonable chance of it winning.

In my previous post, I wrote about this idea. Since writing it, I just put it out of my mind thinking someday down the road I'd figure it out. Well on Saturday, at least for me, I figured out when I could do this. And it had to do with multiple time frame confluence.

Trouble was, I'd never been able to make that work for me. Visually I did not get it. I know this sounds elementary especially after at this stage in my career, but honestly, the whole idea how the fractals worked never really dawned on me.......But an idea of how to make it work came to me sitting there reading a murder mystery. I jumped up, rushed over to the computer and sure enough, found enough evidence right away to justify spending the weekend pouring over charts.

The deal here was that in the time frames I was looking at, the most number of trades I saw in the last month was 3 in a single day. This significantly reduced the number of trades I might look at on any given day. Keep in mind I only reviewed the first 120 minutes of the trading day. I wanted to know if there was sufficient resources based on this idea to be done in 2 hours each day. What was the win rate, how much risk on average, average ticks per trade was reasonable to expect, etc....all the normal stuff.

Then I marked all the trades, went back over them with my risk criteria, entry rules and target rules and asked myself this one question, if I had doubled my normal risk right here, what was the return and what was the worst case scenario?

The answers were completely satisfactory. No need to go into those details here since my answers would be different from everyone else's, but suffice to say, I liked what I saw.

The beautiful thing was this, I did not have to change anything about how I was already trading in terms of what the set up looked like, just wait until that set up appeared simultaneously on all three time frames. If I missed a trade was already in progress when I got to the computer in the morning, just look for normal re-entry trades and size normally.

Then of course, the million dollar question. Could I see and execute real time? This morning, I saw and I executed. I was done in the first 45 minutes of trading with about 2.5X my normal profit for the day. This came as a result of three trades. A loser with normal size, then two winners. One with double my normal size and one with normal size. Of course today was an easy day to make money assuming you were short, but on days like this I would normally get only a small part of the trend. Today I got a larger portion than I would have otherwise but still missed more than half the available ticks. No worries about that though as my back test did not include holding for very large runs like today.

So what am I saying here. I had an aha moment about multiple time frames and about risk management. The risk portion I am carefully studying in a walk forward experiment but the actual entry and exit of the trade I expect to be able to see it clearly from now on......

On a side note, I finally got my skype to show me as online after nearly two weeks of messing with it. Until yesterday, it always showed me as offline or away in addition to not letting me text message at random times . Well I guess I should say, skype is finally working properly but I have no idea what the issue was so to say I fixed it is a misstatement.

So to my skype friends in the UK, India and Canada that thought I was ignoring you, I should be free tomorrow around 7:30AM my time.

Well here's to an interesting week ahead. I am looking forward to this week like I haven't looked forward to a work week in a long time.

Cheers.........

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following 12 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1059 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received

today is four days looking at MTF in a new light. I should mention this is on sim. No sense trying something new with real money. The real trial is increasing size at certain key moments. No way I'm doing that live until I've done it in sim for a few days. Even when I go back live, I'll increase size in smaller increments than I am now to start with. I have a max size I can work with anyway and so will never go above that.

Four days in and I'm up substantially more than I would be otherwise. Size is the difference. But so is waiting for the key inflection points when all three time frames line up. These trades also seem to last longer in terms of distance traveled. I've done two 50 tick trades this week. A first for me.

Tuesday was a full stop out day. Took all signals for 2 hours, ended up down my full daily stop. Did the same thing Monday, today and yesterday. Monday offset Tuesday and yesterday and today are very nicely profitable. More than any previous 4 days worth of trading sim or otherwise.

The chart is my entry chart. I have two higher time frames than this. The largest one is a 15M chart.

One thing I am noticing is this, I am trading MUCH less than before. Monday I did one trade. Tuesday was the loser and there were 5 trades. One trade yesterday and 4 today. Two of which were break evens. I could have quit after the first one and been perfectly happy with the day's results. I only took the third and fourth trades because the risk on them was small enough that I could take a full stop out and still be almost double my daily goal. So it was a no risk proposition in terms of overall objectives.

As to the chart, all three time frames look identical to this one. I also have a totally naked one just to make sure I didn't miss something on the others in terms of levels. Sometimes the indicators obscure levels just a bit.



Cheers......

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following 12 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1060 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received

One trade today. Perfect alignment on all three charts, all three charts even had the same entry criteria on them. So doubled normal size, held to target and exited with 2.5X normal daily goal.

Thankfully target only took about 3 minutes to reach but thats NOT normal.

Back to observation mode til 7:30. then its time to be Dad. Kiddo is out of school today so I get to spend the day with her....she's turning into a bit of a laugh riot lately.

Cheers.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following 7 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1061 (permalink)
 Superdoug3 
Vernon, BC, Canada
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Charts
Broker: Zaner Group (Transact)
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 103 since Apr 2010
Thanks: 113 given, 63 received

Patience - congratulations on patience to FOCUS for 2 hours for ONE trade. I guess the patience and Focus comes with practice. Do you practice any techniques to develop Focus. I listen to music on the MP3 player and this seems to keep me occupied

The following 3 users say Thank You to Superdoug3 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1062 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received


Superdoug3 View Post
Patience - congratulations on patience to FOCUS for 2 hours for ONE trade. I guess the patience and Focus comes with practice. Do you practice any techniques to develop Focus. I listen to music on the MP3 player and this seems to keep me occupied

I wish i had what it takes to focus on one trade for 2 hours but I'm afraid you misunderstood me. I was done trading in about 3 minutes this morning. I spent the next 2 hours just watching the market and seeing where potential trades might be. Observation mode.....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following 2 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1063 (permalink)
 addchild 
Bay Area California
 
Experience: None
Platform: TT T4
Broker: Phillip Capital
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 808 since Nov 2011
Thanks: 897 given, 891 received


PandaWarrior View Post
I wish i had what it takes to focus on one trade for 2 hours but I'm afraid you misunderstood me. I was done trading in about 3 minutes this morning. I spent the next 2 hours just watching the market and seeing where potential trades might be. Observation mode.....

Patience outside of the trade is just as important as patience during a trade.


.
The following 3 users say Thank You to addchild for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1064 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1065 (permalink)
 Gary 
Near Dallas, Texas, US
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: ZenFire
Trading: CL
 
Gary's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,070 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 502 given, 2,234 received


PandaWarrior View Post

Quick note: don't include the "www." portion of the URL listed at the end of the video.

As consistently profitable traders.. "We get paid to wait, and we wait to get paid."
Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following 2 users say Thank You to Gary for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1066 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NT
Broker: TD Ameritrade, Dorman/Zenfire
Trading: CL,ES
 
VinceVirgil's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,752 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 2,144 given, 9,222 received


PandaWarrior View Post
today is four days looking at MTF in a new light. I should mention this is on sim. No sense trying something new with real money. The real trial is increasing size at certain key moments. No way I'm doing that live until I've done it in sim for a few days. Even when I go back live, I'll increase size in smaller increments than I am now to start with. I have a max size I can work with anyway and so will never go above that.

Four days in and I'm up substantially more than I would be otherwise. Size is the difference. But so is waiting for the key inflection points when all three time frames line up. These trades also seem to last longer in terms of distance traveled. I've done two 50 tick trades this week. A first for me.

Tuesday was a full stop out day. Took all signals for 2 hours, ended up down my full daily stop. Did the same thing Monday, today and yesterday. Monday offset Tuesday and yesterday and today are very nicely profitable. More than any previous 4 days worth of trading sim or otherwise.

The chart is my entry chart. I have two higher time frames than this. The largest one is a 15M chart.

One thing I am noticing is this, I am trading MUCH less than before. Monday I did one trade. Tuesday was the loser and there were 5 trades. One trade yesterday and 4 today. Two of which were break evens. I could have quit after the first one and been perfectly happy with the day's results. I only took the third and fourth trades because the risk on them was small enough that I could take a full stop out and still be almost double my daily goal. So it was a no risk proposition in terms of overall objectives.

As to the chart, all three time frames look identical to this one. I also have a totally naked one just to make sure I didn't miss something on the others in terms of levels. Sometimes the indicators obscure levels just a bit.



Cheers......

Great to hear.

You have to trade what you feel comfortable with, but not too comfortable, otherwize it would be impossible to pull the trigger.

Congratulations on your newfound mindset. ( or better application...or whatever it is) Sounds like its beneficial.

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following 2 users say Thank You to VinceVirgil for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1067 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received

Got in a tad late today but the trend was with me so felt real comfortable taking the trades. Two trades today. Both winners with a third passed on because I was emotionally done. No need to give it back if I'm not in the groove.


In the interest of showing what my multiple time frames look like, here is a screen shot.


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following 12 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1068 (permalink)
 Mercury 
PU , India
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja Trader
Trading: Nifty Futures
 
Mercury's Avatar
 
Posts: 51 since Aug 2010
Thanks: 148 given, 35 received

Good to see charts Back PW..

The following user says Thank You to Mercury for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1069 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,255 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,574 given, 34,957 received

There is no single indicator, charting technique, or quantitative measure, that can accurately produce a forward looking view of the market. Rather, it is an aggregation of a variety of different inputs that forms the context for what should be the primary focus, which is price action. In any case, confirmation bias is likely to be an attendant factor in any analysis and/ or decision, so ultimately success will come down to risk, money, and trade management. However, this too must be pragmatically applied within the context of the market, i.e., liquidity, volatility, etc. - the blind or rote adherence to an arbitrary set of rules, without taking into consideration the context of the market, can be ruinous.

The market doesn’t announce it’s intentions ahead of time. Instead, it prefers to remain an enigma, manifestly unclear, or clearly un-manifest, as to what direction it is headed. At times, the market will even offer up a head-fake, or some form of dis-information in an outright effort to deceive. Most traders would prefer, and some even expect, the market to tip its hand, which it often does to those who know how to listen to what the market is telling them. Of course, the market assumes the listener(trader) is completely aware of the context, and subtext, of its remarks (price action), and that he has dismissed any predispositions for the moment; left only to dispassionately analyze the arguments before him.

Follow me on Twitter
 
(login for full post details)
  #1070 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NT
Broker: TD Ameritrade, Dorman/Zenfire
Trading: CL,ES
 
VinceVirgil's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,752 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 2,144 given, 9,222 received


tigertrader View Post
There is no single indicator, charting technique, or quantitative measure, that can accurately produce a forward looking view of the market. Rather, it is an aggregation of a variety of different inputs that forms the context for what should be the primary focus, which is price action. In any case, confirmation bias is likely to be an attendant factor in any analysis and/ or decision, so ultimately success will come down to risk, money, and trade management. However, this too must be pragmatically applied within the context of the market, i.e., liquidity, volatility, etc. - the blind or rote adherence to an arbitrary set of rules, without taking into consideration the context of the market, can be ruinous.

The market doesn’t announce it’s intentions ahead of time. Instead, it prefers to remain an enigma, manifestly unclear, or clearly un-manifest, as to what direction it is headed. At times, the market will even offer up a head-fake, or some form of dis-information in an outright effort to deceive. Most traders would prefer, and some even expect, the market to tip its hand, which it often does to those who know how to listen to what the market is telling them. Of course, the market assumes the listener(trader) is is completely aware of the context, and subtext, of its remarks (price action), and that he has dismissed any predispositions for the moment; left only to dispassionately analyze the arguments before him.

Very good description.

I particularly like the emphasis you place on risk, money (management) and trade management as having eqval importance (over many trades) to successful trading. Of course, I think thats what you are saying.

Many traders seem to focus exclusively on setups, or entries without any consideration of the other factors which have equal importance. (sometimes greater importance, depending on the trade)

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following 7 users say Thank You to VinceVirgil for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1071 (permalink)
 monpere 
Bala, PA, USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: Mirus, IB
Trading: SPY, Oil, Euro
 
monpere's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,858 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 300 given, 3,339 received


tigertrader View Post
...
The market doesn’t announce it’s intentions ahead of time. Instead, it prefers to remain an enigma, manifestly unclear, or clearly un-manifest, as to what direction it is headed. At times, the market will even offer up a head-fake, or some form of dis-information in an outright effort to deceive. Most traders would prefer, and some even expect, the market to tip its hand, which it often does to those who know how to listen to what the market is telling them. Of course, the market assumes the listener(trader) is completely aware of the context, and subtext, of its remarks (price action), and that he has dismissed any predispositions for the moment; left only to dispassionately analyze the arguments before him.

Man alive! Do you write romance novels when you're not trading?

The following 3 users say Thank You to monpere for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1072 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,255 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,574 given, 34,957 received


monpere View Post
Man alive! Do you write romance novels when you're not trading?

I've been writing like this ever since I left (or rather, was asked to leave) the yeshiva for reasons shrouded in great secrecy and mystery. I got an adjunct position at a community college to support my six children, various habits, and other predilections. I taught Kaballah and other religious studies, and since my medications no longer worked, the "visions" that I thought I was having turned out to be just the consequence of drug interactions. I've often thought about pursuing a doctorate in literature, but instead I've been deconstructing rap lyrics using a post-modern paradigm, but continue to have trouble understanding some of the deeper symbolism within these texts. Apparently, this is not au contraire to monpere, oui?

Follow me on Twitter
The following 16 users say Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1073 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received


tigertrader View Post
There is no single indicator, charting technique, or quantitative measure, that can accurately produce a forward looking view of the market. Rather, it is an aggregation of a variety of different inputs that forms the context for what should be the primary focus, which is price action. In any case, confirmation bias is likely to be an attendant factor in any analysis and/ or decision, so ultimately success will come down to risk, money, and trade management. However, this too must be pragmatically applied within the context of the market, i.e., liquidity, volatility, etc. - the blind or rote adherence to an arbitrary set of rules, without taking into consideration the context of the market, can be ruinous.

The market doesn’t announce it’s intentions ahead of time. Instead, it prefers to remain an enigma, manifestly unclear, or clearly un-manifest, as to what direction it is headed. At times, the market will even offer up a head-fake, or some form of dis-information in an outright effort to deceive. Most traders would prefer, and some even expect, the market to tip its hand, which it often does to those who know how to listen to what the market is telling them. Of course, the market assumes the listener(trader) is completely aware of the context, and subtext, of its remarks (price action), and that he has dismissed any predispositions for the moment; left only to dispassionately analyze the arguments before him.

Indeed.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following user says Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1074 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,255 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,574 given, 34,957 received


PandaWarrior View Post
Indeed.

The point I’m trying to make is there is not one simple answer to trading success, nor is there one single strategy that will insure consistent success. Given the fact that a methodology or trading system has a profitable expectancy, a trader is adequately capitalized, practices sound money management, and has the emotional fortitude to put in the screen time and trade consistently, the trader who has the better (more complete) and more timely (current) analysis will enjoy the greatest edge and have the greatest success.

Effective strategies, mis-pricings, and exploitable inefficiencies in the markets, are ephemeral. They last only as long as it takes for the low hanging fruit to be picked and traded out of the market. The more an edge is gamed the less effective it becomes. The current changes in relative volatility may be the result of the market closing out previous inefficiencies, and these shifts in the fundamental mechanics of the market may have impacts on strategies and methodologies that are not immediately obvious.

The key to trading then is a strong recency bias - identifying what is driving price at the current time and what techniques or strategies are effective at the current time. This requires a thorough understanding of the markets, macro-economics, politics, trader psychology, money flows, smart and dumb money and technical and quantitative analysis.

it is important to understand the impact of money supply and Fed policy decisions, , HFTs on market structure and liquidity, inter-market relationships, and the interaction among geo-political power centers. Against this background, it is important to assess trader psychology from the perspective of fear, greed and equilibrium, using market profile and classical technical analysis methods. Especially, it is important to watch for patterns in price and volume at predetermined critical inflection points to assess when traders at the margin might be setting off a series of events down the time-price hierarchy that can lead to trends and larger market swings.

Follow me on Twitter
 
(login for full post details)
  #1075 (permalink)
 Jack22 
Washington DC
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader7
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 73 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 108 given, 84 received


tigertrader View Post
The key to trading then is a strong recency bias - identifying what is driving price at the current time and what techniques or strategies are effective at the current time. This requires a thorough understanding of the markets, macro-economics, politics, trader psychology, money flows, smart and dumb money and technical and quantitative analysis.

I don't think I have the capacity to understand all of those things and update with all that information according to a Bayesian model. I can only understand and process a certain amount of things (sometimes not all that many very well either)....I would never have been successful if I tried to understand all of that stuff. Other than that, good point and I hope people really understand the general point you are trying to make.

The following 5 users say Thank You to Jack22 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1076 (permalink)
 wldman 
Chicago Illinois USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Broker: IB, ToS
Trading: /ES, US Equities/Options
 
wldman's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,342 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 1,978 given, 8,876 received


tigertrader View Post
The point I’m trying to make is there is not one simple answer to trading success, nor is there one single strategy that will insure consistent success. Given the fact that a methodology or trading system has a profitable expectancy, a trader is adequately capitalized, practices sound money management, and has the emotional fortitude to put in the screen time and trade consistently, the trader who has the better (more complete) and more timely (current) analysis will enjoy the greatest edge and have the greatest success.

Effective strategies, mis-pricings, and exploitable inefficiencies in the markets, are ephemeral. They last only as long as it takes for the low hanging fruit to be picked and traded out of the market. The more an edge is gamed the less effective it becomes. The current changes in relative volatility may be the result of the market closing out previous inefficiencies, and these shifts in the fundamental mechanics of the market may have impacts on strategies and methodologies that are not immediately obvious.

The key to trading then is a strong recency bias - identifying what is driving price at the current time and what techniques or strategies are effective at the current time. This requires a thorough understanding of the markets, macro-economics, politics, trader psychology, money flows, smart and dumb money and technical and quantitative analysis.

it is important to understand the impact of money supply and Fed policy decisions, , HFTs on market structure and liquidity, inter-market relationships, and the interaction among geo-political power centers. Against this background, it is important to assess trader psychology from the perspective of fear, greed and equilibrium, using market profile and classical technical analysis methods. Especially, it is important to watch for patterns in price and volume at pre-determined critical inflection points to assess when traders at the margin might be setting off a series of events down the time-price hierarchy that can lead to larger trends and market swings.

is the effectiveness and clarity with which you communicate....making the complicated simple...and making it look easy.

damn @tigertrader can we go steady..lol

Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following 3 users say Thank You to wldman for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1077 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received


tigertrader View Post

The key to trading then is a strong recency bias - identifying what is driving price at the current time and what techniques or strategies are effective at the current time. This requires a thorough understanding of the markets, macro-economics, politics, trader psychology, money flows, smart and dumb money and technical and quantitative analysis.

it is important to understand the impact of money supply and Fed policy decisions, , HFTs on market structure and liquidity, inter-market relationships, and the interaction among geo-political power centers. Against this background, it is important to assess trader psychology from the perspective of fear, greed and equilibrium, using market profile and classical technical analysis methods. Especially, it is important to watch for patterns in price and volume at pre-determined critical inflection points to assess when traders at the margin might be setting off a series of events down the time-price hierarchy that can lead to larger trends and market swings.

I get what you're saying and I agree, a trader needs a well rounded knowledge base in addition to a trading method combined with sound risk and money management and that no one trading method will work 100% of the time.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following 7 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1078 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received

I sat down to see a failed break out to the upside which put two of three time frames in sync. My entry bar was pretty large so went in conservative on size. Don't want any outliers to take me out of the game to soon. Anyway, that trade was BE after +34 ticks of profit. For some reason, this did not bother me to much...first time for everything I suppose. 2nd trade was ended +33 with full size and technically done for the day.

Waited around to see what might happen. You never know right...its inventory day and decided to see if I could manage anything from that.

Trade three was one lot BE after 50 ticks of profit on the screen. The risk was large on this one as well so one lot + my multiple of risk for a target meant the target was out there a bit. So a break even was the result. Trade 4 same result. Trade 5 was prior to inventory so went in single lot, low volatility held it for a while and then added to it once I got all three time frames to agree. Profit target was 30 ticks, I stretched it to 50 ticks to see if inventory would spike it up there and it missed me by 2 ticks, I exited at my normal profit target for the risk size.

63 ticks today before commissions.

On a side note, I won a copy of https://trading-journal-spreadsheet.com/ today from Optimus Trading Group. Its pretty nice.



Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following 11 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1079 (permalink)
 tderrick 
Nashville, Tennessee
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja / Jigsaw / 9G
Broker: AMP / CQG
Trading: NQ, YM and ES
 
tderrick's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,588 since Sep 2010
Thanks: 4,260 given, 2,529 received

I have a headache...



tigertrader View Post
The point I’m trying to make is there is not one simple answer to trading success, nor is there one single strategy that will insure consistent success. Given the fact that a methodology or trading system has a profitable expectancy, a trader is adequately capitalized, practices sound money management, and has the emotional fortitude to put in the screen time and trade consistently, the trader who has the better (more complete) and more timely (current) analysis will enjoy the greatest edge and have the greatest success.

Effective strategies, mis-pricings, and exploitable inefficiencies in the markets, are ephemeral. They last only as long as it takes for the low hanging fruit to be picked and traded out of the market. The more an edge is gamed the less effective it becomes. The current changes in relative volatility may be the result of the market closing out previous inefficiencies, and these shifts in the fundamental mechanics of the market may have impacts on strategies and methodologies that are not immediately obvious.

The key to trading then is a strong recency bias - identifying what is driving price at the current time and what techniques or strategies are effective at the current time. This requires a thorough understanding of the markets, macro-economics, politics, trader psychology, money flows, smart and dumb money and technical and quantitative analysis.

it is important to understand the impact of money supply and Fed policy decisions, , HFTs on market structure and liquidity, inter-market relationships, and the interaction among geo-political power centers. Against this background, it is important to assess trader psychology from the perspective of fear, greed and equilibrium, using market profile and classical technical analysis methods. Especially, it is important to watch for patterns in price and volume at predetermined critical inflection points to assess when traders at the margin might be setting off a series of events down the time-price hierarchy that can lead to trends and larger market swings.



AJ
Nashville, Tennessee


"Life On The Edge of SR"
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following user says Thank You to tderrick for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1080 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received


tderrick View Post
I have a headache...

Sometimes when I read @tigertrader, I feel like I am reading a Greenspan speech. Important stuff is contained within the flowery prose but requires diligence and patience to tease out the tasty bits. As with Greenspan, I sometimes wish @tigertrader would be more direct. But I suspect that if he was, I might like what he has to say somewhat less.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following 4 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1081 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,255 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,574 given, 34,957 received

Thanks, Brian... I think.

Funny how it's always the 2-lot sim traders with 6 months of "trading" experience like @tderrick who make the cynical comments.

As they say...


The recipe for perpetual ignorance is: Be satisfied with your opinions and content with your knowledge.

Follow me on Twitter
The following user says Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1082 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received


tigertrader View Post
Thanks, Brian... I think.

Funny how it's always the 2-lot sim traders with 6 months of "trading" experience like @tderrick who make the cynical comments.

As they say...


The recipe for perpetual ignorance is: Be satisfied with your opinions and content with your knowledge.

My post was a compliment....@tderrick is actually a good personal friend of mine and I know his comment wasn't cynical. I understood his comment to be more along the lines that your posts were deep and required more thinking than normal, hence the "headache" comment. More a humorous self deprecating joke than anything....I might be wrong about that but I know him well enough to make that assumption.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1083 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
Site Administrator
Swing Trader
Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Trading: Futures & Crypto
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 50,093 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,554 given, 98,580 received

Agree, AJ (@tderrick) is a good guy and working hard on his trading career.

Mike

We're here to help -- just ask

For the best trading education, watch our webinars
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list

Follow us on Twitter, YouTube, and Facebook

Support our community as an Elite Member:
https://futures.io/elite/

Visit other sites? Please spread the word about your experience with our community!
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following 3 users say Thank You to Big Mike for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1084 (permalink)
 tderrick 
Nashville, Tennessee
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja / Jigsaw / 9G
Broker: AMP / CQG
Trading: NQ, YM and ES
 
tderrick's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,588 since Sep 2010
Thanks: 4,260 given, 2,529 received


tigertrader View Post
Thanks, Brian... I think.

Funny how it's always the 2-lot sim traders with 6 months of "trading" experience like @tderrick who make the cynical comments.

As they say...


The recipe for perpetual ignorance is: Be satisfied with your opinions and content with your knowledge.


I had a strange feeling when I posted that remark that it may get me in trouble.


1. It was a poor attempt at humor and in no way meant to slight @tigertrader.

2. I was attempting to point out that in both language and market analysis, the post was beyond
my scope. I may run out of years on this orb before I ever approach the knowledge portrayed in
your post.

My apologies, @tigertrader.


AJ
Nashville, Tennessee


"Life On The Edge of SR"
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following 5 users say Thank You to tderrick for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1085 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received

TED speech on 8 simple steps to success


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following 11 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1086 (permalink)
 Adamus 
London, UK
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, home-grown Java
Broker: IB/IQFeed
Trading: EUR/USD
 
Adamus's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,085 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 471 given, 786 received

Hey, you know I often think about what I do, and whether I have a passion for it - one of the must-haves in that TED presentation.

I ask myself, would I trade if I wasn't paid for it? I can't work that one out. I wish I could say yes, but in all honesty I can't get my head around the question.

Obviously so far I am not paid but I trade! But that doesn't count since I totally absolutely intend to make money out of it.

Is it even a valid question? Is trading trading if you don't make money?

I could ask myself, would I trade someone else's money for no reward? I mean, none. No profit, no cut, no salary. But that to me isn't the right question to find out whether I'm passionate about it, whether I could do that for the rest of my life, because it's bound to work on my subconcious that the guy whose money it is would be getting all the profit. Could I handle that or would that kill it for me or is that not the right question to ask?

I don't know. Funny question!

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following 5 users say Thank You to Adamus for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1087 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received


Adamus View Post
Hey, you know I often think about what I do, and whether I have a passion for it - one of the must-haves in that TED presentation.

I ask myself, would I trade if I wasn't paid for it? I can't work that one out. I wish I could say yes, but in all honesty I can't get my head around the question.

Obviously so far I am not paid but I trade! But that doesn't count since I totally absolutely intend to make money out of it.

Is it even a valid question? Is trading trading if you don't make money?

I could ask myself, would I trade someone else's money for no reward? I mean, none. No profit, no cut, no salary. But that to me isn't the right question to find out whether I'm passionate about it, whether I could do that for the rest of my life, because it's bound to work on my subconcious that the guy whose money it is would be getting all the profit. Could I handle that or would that kill it for me or is that not the right question to ask?

I don't know. Funny question!

A friend told me recently that trading no longer fascinated him. He's been trading for 20 years and has some really big wins under his belt. Instead, he intimated that the lifestyle that trading related activities provided him was his passion. In other words, trading was something that allowed him to do what he loved away from trading.

This is not the first time I have heard this. The guy that got me into trading said basically the same thing. He said the first couple of years trading would be an obsession then you would start making money with a defined edge and then over time trading would become boring while the lifestyle you dreamed of took the place of the passion you once felt for trading. This is assuming you have something to live for outside of work. Otherwise just work 24/7.

I admit I fall into this category. I like trading. I like many things about it. However, what I love about it is the ability over time to indulge and follow my other passions which require money but do not produce it.

So can you be successful doing it like this despite what the TED talk said? I think so. Passion is what counts. If you need to do something that produces income to pursue the passion that doesn't, then be really good at it so you can fully indulge yourself away from that income source.

I might be on the wrong track here but I do think this is possible. I know at least two people that do it.

Good luck on your journey and thanks for reading.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following 11 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1088 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following 5 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1089 (permalink)
 syxforex 
British Columbia
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NINJA
Broker: ZEN
Trading: Crude
 
Posts: 1,091 since May 2010

Just going to write a quick response. Have been taking some medication and feeling a bit delerious all day, so hopefully it sounds right. I can appreciate where this guy is coming from, in the heart. He's not an economist though, his suspicions regarding the nature of man, power and greed are on the mark.

Ironically much of the problem that America is facing is due to pure unbridled capitalism, if anything else. Corporations send the jobs overseas, they don't care about the people in their communities. Most people today don't even know what they do exactly, or how it contributes to the economy, the social good. Most go to work and do some kind of data entry on machines. The days this guy pines for, the last century, 20% of people worked as farmers. Most people did something real that they could define. Anyways, this could get real long. But I think it's up to communities and countries to democratically decide what is best for them. Call it socialism, or whatever, I'm against big government, but I fear big corporations more. As an example the US needs some major Keynesian style spending right now to develop it's natural gas infrastructure, the corporations are happy playing the peak oil game for now though, they are not going to do it. The money spent putting people to work creates multipliers, and on the private industry that can flourish with the new infrastructure. Just printing money and giving it the elite class in the hope that they will spread the wealth ina trickle down fashioin is retarded. Of course it's not working. Of course real inflation is rising and there are no good jobs... hello

Anyways, don't want to ramble. But as for a gold standard. It is not practical. It was one of the major causes of the great depression because it creates liquidity rigidities. Great Depression - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Imagine some guy sitting up in his castle on his pile of gold while everyone outside is starving because there is no money to move things around. The other problem is the US is bankrupt already. If they went to a gold standard China would come knocking and clean out Fort Knox overnight. China also has a tone of gold reserves in teh ground while the US does not have very much. And then they are going to fix their currency to a particular rate of gold. And this matrix starts to explode with unimaginable economic consequences... It's a nice theory and it might work in a small isolated community where all the producers and consumer are within 50 miles or something....

Anyways, I think the answer is pretty simple. A responsible government that cares about the people they represent and arent' just going to willy nilly sell em out to the corps... The black market needs to be taxed. Fighting the war is expensive, tax and regulate, responsibly, that's the way to go.. can't say I like it, but the situation is what it is.... 16 Trillion aint going away with a tax cut for rich people, even if corporations are people...

Visit my futures io Trade Journal
 
(login for full post details)
  #1090 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received


syxforex View Post
Just going to write a quick response. Have been taking some medication and feeling a bit delerious all day, so hopefully it sounds right. I can appreciate where this guy is coming from, in the heart. He's not an economist though, his suspicions regarding the nature of man, power and greed are on the mark.

Ironically much of the problem that America is facing is due to pure unbridled capitalism, if anything else. Corporations send the jobs overseas, they don't care about the people in their communities. Most people today don't even know what they do exactly, or how it contributes to the economy, the social good. Most go to work and do some kind of data entry on machines. The days this guy pines for, the last century, 20% of people worked as farmers. Most people did something real that they could define. Anyways, this could get real long. But I think it's up to communities and countries to democratically decide what is best for them. Call it socialism, or whatever, I'm against big government, but I fear big corporations more. As an example the US needs some major Keynesian style spending right now to develop it's natural gas infrastructure, the corporations are happy playing the peak oil game for now though, they are not going to do it. The money spent putting people to work creates multipliers, and on the private industry that can flourish with the new infrastructure. Just printing money and giving it the elite class in the hope that they will spread the wealth ina trickle down fashioin is retarded. Of course it's not working. Of course real inflation is rising and there are no good jobs... hello

Anyways, don't want to ramble. But as for a gold standard. It is not practical. It was one of the major causes of the great depression because it creates liquidity rigidities. Great Depression - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Imagine some guy sitting up in his castle on his pile of gold while everyone outside is starving because there is no money to move things around. The other problem is the US is bankrupt already. If they went to a gold standard China would come knocking and clean out Fort Knox overnight. China also has a tone of gold reserves in teh ground while the US does not have very much. And then they are going to fix their currency to a particular rate of gold. And this matrix starts to explode with unimaginable economic consequences... It's a nice theory and it might work in a small isolated community where all the producers and consumer are within 50 miles or something....

Anyways, I think the answer is pretty simple. A responsible government that cares about the people they represent and arent' just going to willy nilly sell em out to the corps... The black market needs to be taxed. Fighting the war is expensive, tax and regulate, responsibly, that's the way to go.. can't say I like it, but the situation is what it is.... 16 Trillion aint going away with a tax cut for rich people, even if corporations are people...

Hey buddy, I love ya to death but that's classic Keynesian economics that's failed us for the most of the last century. Its an experiment that's failed. All those fixes are just treating the symptoms of the cancer, not the cause.

Its time to go back to classic Austrian economics where the risk is not socialized and the profits privatized and central planners go where all failed ideas go...to the dusk heap of history.

Here is a great quote from one our third president and an ardent student of history. To bad our leaders today don't have the same grasp of history this guy did.

Thomas Jefferson: “The central bank is an institution of the most deadly hostility existing against the Principles and form of our Constitution. I am an Enemy to all banks discounting bills or notes for anything but Coin. If the American People allow private banks to control the issuance of their currency, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the People of all their Property until their Children will wake up homeless... ”

Anyway, I stuck the video here on my thread not to discuss its merits but to have a place where I can always find it.....I don't want to hijack my own trading journal with economics.....I posted the video in the off topic area as well. W can discuss it there.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following 4 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1091 (permalink)
 Silver Dragon 
Legendary Data Wizard!!!
Cincinnati Ohio
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TastyWorks
Broker: TastyWorks
Trading: FX, Stocks, Options
 
Silver Dragon's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,018 since Feb 2011
Thanks: 5,774 given, 4,914 received


PandaWarrior View Post
A friend told me recently that trading no longer fascinated him. He's been trading for 20 years and has some really big wins under his belt. Instead, he intimated that the lifestyle that trading related activities provided him was his passion. In other words, trading was something that allowed him to do what he loved away from trading.

This is not the first time I have heard this. The guy that got me into trading said basically the same thing. He said the first couple of years trading would be an obsession then you would start making money with a defined edge and then over time trading would become boring while the lifestyle you dreamed of took the place of the passion you once felt for trading. This is assuming you have something to live for outside of work. Otherwise just work 24/7.

I admit I fall into this category. I like trading. I like many things about it. However, what I love about it is the ability over time to indulge and follow my other passions which require money but do not produce it.

So can you be successful doing it like this despite what the TED talk said? I think so. Passion is what counts. If you need to do something that produces income to pursue the passion that doesn't, then be really good at it so you can fully indulge yourself away from that income source.

I might be on the wrong track here but I do think this is possible. I know at least two people that do it.

Good luck on your journey and thanks for reading.

This hit home for me. I love trading and the markets more than any other work I have ever done. I could watch it full time and never be bored. My goal is to get to the point to do the other things I like to do and have the time to do it. I took your advice from another post and wrote down my goals. I read them every morning to remind myself why I am doing this and where I am going. Discipline and focus.

Thanks for posting!
Robert

nosce te ipsum

You make your own opportunities in life.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following 4 users say Thank You to Silver Dragon for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1092 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following 6 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1093 (permalink)
 tderrick 
Nashville, Tennessee
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja / Jigsaw / 9G
Broker: AMP / CQG
Trading: NQ, YM and ES
 
tderrick's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,588 since Sep 2010
Thanks: 4,260 given, 2,529 received


PandaWarrior View Post
Hey buddy, I love ya to death but that's classic Keynesian economics that's failed us for the most of the last century. Its an experiment that's failed.

Thomas Jefferson: “The central bank is an institution of the most deadly hostility existing against the Principles and form of our Constitution. I am an Enemy to all banks discounting bills or notes for anything but Coin. If the American People allow private banks to control the issuance of their currency, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the People of all their Property until their Children will wake up homeless... ”

Anyway, I stuck the video here on my thread not to discuss its merits but to have a place where I can always find it.....I don't want to hijack my own trading journal with economics.....I posted the video in the off topic area as well. W can discuss it there.

I would love to meet me some Tom Jefferson This country would never have gotten off the ground without him
and Ben.

All their concepts are still viable.


AJ
Nashville, Tennessee


"Life On The Edge of SR"
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following user says Thank You to tderrick for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1094 (permalink)
 syxforex 
British Columbia
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NINJA
Broker: ZEN
Trading: Crude
 
Posts: 1,091 since May 2010

Not hijacking here... but just wanted to say the dark/middle ages were also time of Austrian economics. Austrian economics does not negate the business cycle, that is nature. Austrian economists would call for doing nothing during times of depression. Keynes would call for investment in infrastructure, not as a model for a capitalist economy, but as a way of kick starting an economy that is failing. Monetarist would call for printing money. How can you say Keynesian economics has failed. The military is a perfect example of how it works. Ultimately that's what got the US out of the last depression. If you want free enterprise, you are going to have business cycles, Austrian economics doesn't have a way of managing the crises that come with it...

Visit my futures io Trade Journal
 
(login for full post details)
  #1095 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received

I was expecting a somewhat muted day today based on my perception the daily chart is showing upside exhaustion, however, still willing to trade long if the set ups were there.

Total range was less than 100 ticks top to bottom for the globex which means I get real aggressive with getting stops to break even.

The first series of trades all resulted in BE trades. Yes had I not went BE, then the first trade would have paid eventually and I would have been done much earlier. However, my trade plan calls for BE at 1XR so I honor that consistently.

After the open, we traded in a 20 tick range for quite a while with some resistance at the HOD level. There were two set ups I liked which I took with max size permitted under my money management plan and was able to take profit at the trading plan levels both times.

The size plus trade plan exits resulted in reaching daily goal x 2 and before my trading hours were up. Time to quit.

Had those two trades resulted in BE trades, I would have called it quits for the day and marked it as a scratch.

Trading multiple time frames puts the edge firmly in your favor and you can trade with confidence knowing there is an edge there. Of course each trade is a 50/50 coin flip but playing the odds means profitability over the long term.

Price may run one direction or the other later in the session but that's ok. Trade plan executed with near perfection today. That is what we are called to do as traders, execute a trade plan and let the results speak for themselves.

I watched a documentary about black jack players that were all card counters. They did well for themselves even through a long draw down period. They kept saying over and over again, play the odds long enough and you will win assuming you have a statistical edge. Each hand is a crap shoot but do something long enough and a pattern will emerge. They returned 35% annually to their investors doing nothing but playing the odds.

This means being comfortable with total uncertainty, being willing to pull the trigger every single time a trade presents itself with the right conditions and being willing to abandon the fate of that trade to the market.

Time to take my kid to school....cheers


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following 13 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1096 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received

All daily intermediate support levels broken last few days. Looking for shorts only. Waiting for the charts to get in sync before shorting.

Once I started getting a red bar on the 10M chart, I knew it was time. 1M level was broken, 5M was screaming, time to short......

Went short first trade with max size looking for a conservative exit. +15 ticks. The reason for the conservative exit was I look for a retest of the break down area after the impulse leg and I wanted out of the trade if the retest turned into a break higher.

The impulse leg was tested, got a minor trend line break and I went short max allowable size. This time I knew we'd probably see a flush out down to some daily support but truthfully did not expect what happened. I moved my target down to +50 ticks expecting it to take some time to get there. Instead, I basically blinked and my target was filled. Nice when that happens of course but it does contribute to unrealistic expectations for other trades.

+65 ticks today and time to go be daddy at least for an hour before the princess heads off to violin practice.

Cheers...


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread