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The PandaWarrior Chronicles
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The PandaWarrior Chronicles

  #1071 (permalink)
Elite Member
Bala, PA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: Mirus, IB
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monpere's Avatar
 
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tigertrader View Post
...
The market doesnít announce itís intentions ahead of time. Instead, it prefers to remain an enigma, manifestly unclear, or clearly un-manifest, as to what direction it is headed. At times, the market will even offer up a head-fake, or some form of dis-information in an outright effort to deceive. Most traders would prefer, and some even expect, the market to tip its hand, which it often does to those who know how to listen to what the market is telling them. Of course, the market assumes the listener(trader) is completely aware of the context, and subtext, of its remarks (price action), and that he has dismissed any predispositions for the moment; left only to dispassionately analyze the arguments before him.

Man alive! Do you write romance novels when you're not trading?

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  #1072 (permalink)
Elite Member
Philly, Pa
 
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monpere View Post
Man alive! Do you write romance novels when you're not trading?

I've been writing like this ever since I left (or rather, was asked to leave) the yeshiva for reasons shrouded in great secrecy and mystery. I got an adjunct position at a community college to support my six children, various habits, and other predilections. I taught Kaballah and other religious studies, and since my medications no longer worked, the "visions" that I thought I was having turned out to be just the consequence of drug interactions. I've often thought about pursuing a doctorate in literature, but instead I've been deconstructing rap lyrics using a post-modern paradigm, but continue to have trouble understanding some of the deeper symbolism within these texts. Apparently, this is not au contraire to monpere, oui?

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  #1073 (permalink)
Elite Member
In the heat
 
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tigertrader View Post
There is no single indicator, charting technique, or quantitative measure, that can accurately produce a forward looking view of the market. Rather, it is an aggregation of a variety of different inputs that forms the context for what should be the primary focus, which is price action. In any case, confirmation bias is likely to be an attendant factor in any analysis and/ or decision, so ultimately success will come down to risk, money, and trade management. However, this too must be pragmatically applied within the context of the market, i.e., liquidity, volatility, etc. - the blind or rote adherence to an arbitrary set of rules, without taking into consideration the context of the market, can be ruinous.

The market doesnít announce itís intentions ahead of time. Instead, it prefers to remain an enigma, manifestly unclear, or clearly un-manifest, as to what direction it is headed. At times, the market will even offer up a head-fake, or some form of dis-information in an outright effort to deceive. Most traders would prefer, and some even expect, the market to tip its hand, which it often does to those who know how to listen to what the market is telling them. Of course, the market assumes the listener(trader) is completely aware of the context, and subtext, of its remarks (price action), and that he has dismissed any predispositions for the moment; left only to dispassionately analyze the arguments before him.

Indeed.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1074 (permalink)
Elite Member
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PandaWarrior View Post
Indeed.

The point I’m trying to make is there is not one simple answer to trading success, nor is there one single strategy that will insure consistent success. Given the fact that a methodology or trading system has a profitable expectancy, a trader is adequately capitalized, practices sound money management, and has the emotional fortitude to put in the screen time and trade consistently, the trader who has the better (more complete) and more timely (current) analysis will enjoy the greatest edge and have the greatest success.

Effective strategies, mis-pricings, and exploitable inefficiencies in the markets, are ephemeral. They last only as long as it takes for the low hanging fruit to be picked and traded out of the market. The more an edge is gamed the less effective it becomes. The current changes in relative volatility may be the result of the market closing out previous inefficiencies, and these shifts in the fundamental mechanics of the market may have impacts on strategies and methodologies that are not immediately obvious.

The key to trading then is a strong recency bias - identifying what is driving price at the current time and what techniques or strategies are effective at the current time. This requires a thorough understanding of the markets, macro-economics, politics, trader psychology, money flows, smart and dumb money and technical and quantitative analysis.

it is important to understand the impact of money supply and Fed policy decisions, , HFTs on market structure and liquidity, inter-market relationships, and the interaction among geo-political power centers. Against this background, it is important to assess trader psychology from the perspective of fear, greed and equilibrium, using market profile and classical technical analysis methods. Especially, it is important to watch for patterns in price and volume at predetermined critical inflection points to assess when traders at the margin might be setting off a series of events down the time-price hierarchy that can lead to trends and larger market swings.


Last edited by tigertrader; September 5th, 2012 at 10:52 PM.
 
  #1075 (permalink)
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tigertrader View Post
The key to trading then is a strong recency bias - identifying what is driving price at the current time and what techniques or strategies are effective at the current time. This requires a thorough understanding of the markets, macro-economics, politics, trader psychology, money flows, smart and dumb money and technical and quantitative analysis.

I don't think I have the capacity to understand all of those things and update with all that information according to a Bayesian model. I can only understand and process a certain amount of things (sometimes not all that many very well either)....I would never have been successful if I tried to understand all of that stuff. Other than that, good point and I hope people really understand the general point you are trying to make.

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  #1076 (permalink)
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Brilliant...


tigertrader View Post
The point Iím trying to make is there is not one simple answer to trading success, nor is there one single strategy that will insure consistent success. Given the fact that a methodology or trading system has a profitable expectancy, a trader is adequately capitalized, practices sound money management, and has the emotional fortitude to put in the screen time and trade consistently, the trader who has the better (more complete) and more timely (current) analysis will enjoy the greatest edge and have the greatest success.

Effective strategies, mis-pricings, and exploitable inefficiencies in the markets, are ephemeral. They last only as long as it takes for the low hanging fruit to be picked and traded out of the market. The more an edge is gamed the less effective it becomes. The current changes in relative volatility may be the result of the market closing out previous inefficiencies, and these shifts in the fundamental mechanics of the market may have impacts on strategies and methodologies that are not immediately obvious.

The key to trading then is a strong recency bias - identifying what is driving price at the current time and what techniques or strategies are effective at the current time. This requires a thorough understanding of the markets, macro-economics, politics, trader psychology, money flows, smart and dumb money and technical and quantitative analysis.

it is important to understand the impact of money supply and Fed policy decisions, , HFTs on market structure and liquidity, inter-market relationships, and the interaction among geo-political power centers. Against this background, it is important to assess trader psychology from the perspective of fear, greed and equilibrium, using market profile and classical technical analysis methods. Especially, it is important to watch for patterns in price and volume at pre-determined critical inflection points to assess when traders at the margin might be setting off a series of events down the time-price hierarchy that can lead to larger trends and market swings.

is the effectiveness and clarity with which you communicate....making the complicated simple...and making it look easy.

damn @tigertrader can we go steady..lol

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  #1077 (permalink)
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In the heat
 
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tigertrader View Post

The key to trading then is a strong recency bias - identifying what is driving price at the current time and what techniques or strategies are effective at the current time. This requires a thorough understanding of the markets, macro-economics, politics, trader psychology, money flows, smart and dumb money and technical and quantitative analysis.

it is important to understand the impact of money supply and Fed policy decisions, , HFTs on market structure and liquidity, inter-market relationships, and the interaction among geo-political power centers. Against this background, it is important to assess trader psychology from the perspective of fear, greed and equilibrium, using market profile and classical technical analysis methods. Especially, it is important to watch for patterns in price and volume at pre-determined critical inflection points to assess when traders at the margin might be setting off a series of events down the time-price hierarchy that can lead to larger trends and market swings.

I get what you're saying and I agree, a trader needs a well rounded knowledge base in addition to a trading method combined with sound risk and money management and that no one trading method will work 100% of the time.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1078 (permalink)
Elite Member
In the heat
 
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PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,155 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,306 given, 13,250 received

I sat down to see a failed break out to the upside which put two of three time frames in sync. My entry bar was pretty large so went in conservative on size. Don't want any outliers to take me out of the game to soon. Anyway, that trade was BE after +34 ticks of profit. For some reason, this did not bother me to much...first time for everything I suppose. 2nd trade was ended +33 with full size and technically done for the day.

Waited around to see what might happen. You never know right...its inventory day and decided to see if I could manage anything from that.

Trade three was one lot BE after 50 ticks of profit on the screen. The risk was large on this one as well so one lot + my multiple of risk for a target meant the target was out there a bit. So a break even was the result. Trade 4 same result. Trade 5 was prior to inventory so went in single lot, low volatility held it for a while and then added to it once I got all three time frames to agree. Profit target was 30 ticks, I stretched it to 50 ticks to see if inventory would spike it up there and it missed me by 2 ticks, I exited at my normal profit target for the risk size.

63 ticks today before commissions.

On a side note, I won a copy of http://trading-journal-spreadsheet.com/ today from Optimus Trading Group. Its pretty nice.


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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1079 (permalink)
Elite Member
Nashville, Tennessee
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja / Jigsaw / 9G
Broker/Data: AMP / CQG
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I have a headache...



tigertrader View Post
The point Iím trying to make is there is not one simple answer to trading success, nor is there one single strategy that will insure consistent success. Given the fact that a methodology or trading system has a profitable expectancy, a trader is adequately capitalized, practices sound money management, and has the emotional fortitude to put in the screen time and trade consistently, the trader who has the better (more complete) and more timely (current) analysis will enjoy the greatest edge and have the greatest success.

Effective strategies, mis-pricings, and exploitable inefficiencies in the markets, are ephemeral. They last only as long as it takes for the low hanging fruit to be picked and traded out of the market. The more an edge is gamed the less effective it becomes. The current changes in relative volatility may be the result of the market closing out previous inefficiencies, and these shifts in the fundamental mechanics of the market may have impacts on strategies and methodologies that are not immediately obvious.

The key to trading then is a strong recency bias - identifying what is driving price at the current time and what techniques or strategies are effective at the current time. This requires a thorough understanding of the markets, macro-economics, politics, trader psychology, money flows, smart and dumb money and technical and quantitative analysis.

it is important to understand the impact of money supply and Fed policy decisions, , HFTs on market structure and liquidity, inter-market relationships, and the interaction among geo-political power centers. Against this background, it is important to assess trader psychology from the perspective of fear, greed and equilibrium, using market profile and classical technical analysis methods. Especially, it is important to watch for patterns in price and volume at predetermined critical inflection points to assess when traders at the margin might be setting off a series of events down the time-price hierarchy that can lead to trends and larger market swings.



AJ
Nashville, Tennessee


"Life On The Edge of SR"
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  #1080 (permalink)
Elite Member
In the heat
 
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Posts: 3,155 since Mar 2010
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tderrick View Post
I have a headache...

Sometimes when I read @tigertrader, I feel like I am reading a Greenspan speech. Important stuff is contained within the flowery prose but requires diligence and patience to tease out the tasty bits. As with Greenspan, I sometimes wish @tigertrader would be more direct. But I suspect that if he was, I might like what he has to say somewhat less.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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