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The PandaWarrior Chronicles


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The PandaWarrior Chronicles

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  #901 (permalink)
 Adamus 
London, UK
 
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PW, this is probably a dumb question but does your system give you trades that go a 100 ticks? The system I'm using doesn't give me license to hold a trade any further than the next S/R level and then I've got to bail. I mean, I don't think my entry signals give me big trades.

If I hold a trade beyond the first S/R level, unless the next one is seriously close, I keep thinking, what gives me reason to stay in this trade? What makes me think I shouldn't bail out before a retrace kicks in and takes 25%, 50% or all of my profit away from me?

Isn't it better to bank the profit and then look at the action around the S/R, getting back in if the price action gives another entry signal?

This is Euro/US I'm talking about - maybe Crude is different.

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  #902 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Adamus View Post
PW, this is probably a dumb question but does your system give you trades that go a 100 ticks? The system I'm using doesn't give me license to hold a trade any further than the next S/R level and then I've got to bail. I mean, I don't think my entry signals give me big trades.

If I hold a trade beyond the first S/R level, unless the next one is seriously close, I keep thinking, what gives me reason to stay in this trade? What makes me think I shouldn't bail out before a retrace kicks in and takes 25%, 50% or all of my profit away from me?

Isn't it better to bank the profit and then look at the action around the S/R, getting back in if the price action gives another entry signal?

This is Euro/US I'm talking about - maybe Crude is different.

Crude regularly has 150-300 and even larger tick days. Its not that I want 100+ trades, its that I want to give myself the opportunity for trades greater than 1:1 based on risk and potential reward that CL has typically granted to traders more patient than I. If my R:R gets me in the 100+ tick range for possible targets, I want to develop the ability to sit in the trade long enough to realize it. Some days this can happen in a few minutes on CL and other days it can take all day.

For me, the question about taking profits before a pull back has haunted me my entire trading career. Its a valid question. I think if you take profits off before a retrace, just get good at finding the swings. I am attempting to solve this issue with staged exits at pre-determined R:R levels with the potential for a longer runner. Its the only way I can solve the emotional issue you've described. Its less than optimal in terms of absolute return but in the long run, it probably works better than an all in all out scenario where you often settle for far less than whats possible due to the problem of taking profits early or letting winners turn to losers. With scale out, you can take risk off and then be able to think more rationally about the remainder of the trade. At least that's the theory anyway.

I think the way you mentioned is valid, you need good skills to overcome the slippage and transaction costs. Its possible but I am beginning to believe that fewer trades holding for larger targets is far better. The only real caveat is this...make sure the targets aren't arbitrary. Make sure they are based on some sort of repeatable logic, otherwise its just random.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #903 (permalink)
 syxforex 
British Columbia
 
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I'm thinking musical instrument might help, never too late....


PandaWarrior View Post
Seriously though, I need to find something constructive to help me keep my fingers off the mouse. Otherwise its an exercise in supreme self control....I have some but perhaps not enough......but I can distract myself with something and it will seriously help I think....


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  #904 (permalink)
 gtichauer 
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HAPPY FATHER'S DAY TO ALL FATHERS FOLLOWING THIS GREAT THREAD !!!

Few thing in life are so rewarding like having a child, so today is a day to enjoy with family......at least in some countries in America...


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  #905 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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gtichauer View Post
HAPPY FATHER'S DAY TO ALL FATHERS FOLLOWING THIS GREAT THREAD !!!

Few thing in life are so rewarding like having a child, so today is a day to enjoy with family......at least in some countries in America...


Your kid sure is growing up.....beautiful as well......

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #906 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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well two and done....got taken out by an outside bar while trailing one bar back....two bars back is better but still haven't got the stomach for that just yet but getting there.

I got to the charts after a sell off had already happened which always makes me pause and think. So i waited a bit for price to make its mind up. I almost went long but decided to just wait it out and sure enough, got an inside bar closed short. I went short there and got my first scale. Then trailed and got taken out.

Then I waited until I saw another outside bar and went short at the bottom of the bar. i tried to get short a bit higher but no fill so had to settle for the close. It was also the bottom of the opening range bar I use and so this represented a decent area to get short.

However, I elected to use the same targets as the first trade as that trade was still valid. This turned out to be a good idea as price reversed hard after reaching those targets. I scaled out at what would have been 2XR on the first trade and then had my target at 4XR. Price got within about 15 ticks of 4XR and so i trailed to +20 ticks. This got taken out and subsequently price went to 4XR and reversed.

While i am typing this, price has reached 1XR on the counter trend signal. But I really don't like counter trend trades that much but I do see them. I would have been all out at 1XR on a CT trade.

I am expecting some non directional momentum at this point. We'll see. I'm mostly gonna watch from now on.




Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #907 (permalink)
 trs3042 
Holland, Michigan
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
well two and done....got taken out by an outside bar while trailing one bar back....two bars back is better but still haven't got the stomach for that just yet but getting there.

I got to the charts after a sell off had already happened which always makes me pause and think. So i waited a bit for price to make its mind up. I almost went long but decided to just wait it out and sure enough, got an inside bar closed short. I went short there and got my first scale. Then trailed and got taken out.

Then I waited until I saw another outside bar and went short at the bottom of the bar. i tried to get short a bit higher but no fill so had to settle for the close. It was also the bottom of the opening range bar I use and so this represented a decent area to get short.

However, I elected to use the same targets as the first trade as that trade was still valid. This turned out to be a good idea as price reversed hard after reaching those targets. I scaled out at what would have been 2XR on the first trade and then had my target at 4XR. Price got within about 15 ticks of 4XR and so i trailed to +20 ticks. This got taken out and subsequently price went to 4XR and reversed.

While i am typing this, price has reached 1XR on the counter trend signal. But I really don't like counter trend trades that much but I do see them. I would have been all out at 1XR on a CT trade.

I am expecting some non directional momentum at this point. We'll see. I'm mostly gonna watch from now on.




Hello @PandaWarrior

I really like the colors on your current chart. Would you mind posting a template???

Thank you,

Rick

"If you're going to panic during a trade............. panic early."
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  #908 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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trs3042 View Post
Hello @PandaWarrior

I really like the colors on your current chart. Would you mind posting a template???

Thank you,

Rick

Here you go. Have fun and be careful.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Attached Files
Register to download File Type: xml Brians Trend Chart.xml (50.5 KB, 75 views)
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  #909 (permalink)
 researcher247 
Chicago, IL
 
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PW,

For conversation; (since you are in 'chill zone')--are those expanding MA's like that 'guppy' method???

Have you ever seen those cool charts that look like 3 dimensions where price goes above and below median lines/grids?

It is an optical illusion of sorts.

peace

hedvig

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 trs3042 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Here you go. Have fun and be careful.

Thanks Brian. I will be careful. I sure enjoy reading your progress over the months. I believe your a true inspiration to a lot of traders here at futures.io (formerly BMT). Keep up the great work!!!

Thank you for sharing,

Rick

"If you're going to panic during a trade............. panic early."
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  #911 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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researcher247 View Post
PW,

For conversation; (since you are in 'chill zone')--are those expanding MA's like that 'guppy' method???

Have you ever seen those cool charts that look like 3 dimensions where price goes above and below median lines/grids?

It is an optical illusion of sorts.

peace

hedvig

Not sure what the guppy method is so can't answer. And I have seen those optical illusion type charts and they appeal to me on a purely aesthetic level but in the interest of keeping it as simple as possible, I don't think they're necessary..... @Big Mike wrote an indie a couple years ago called the futures.io (formerly BMT)wave. It makes a nice colored wave that creates an illusion of waves....I kinda like it and think it could be used in a similar manner as what i am doing....


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #912 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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The long I passed on is almost at 4XR although I would have taken it off at 1XR as it was a counter trend trade. A two bar trail still has you in this trade....



and if you take the trade at the confirmation area, then 4XR has been achieved already.


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #913 (permalink)
 Nicolas11 
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Hi,

In the field of aesthetics and optical illusion, there is also "Big Tape" by websouth:





Nicolas

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  #914 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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2 more, didn't manage these as well as I could have but ended the day nicely. The double top area was giving me some hestiation. I thought it was long but just couldn't hold it on the first long entry.




Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #915 (permalink)
 websouth 
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Nicolas11 View Post
Hi,

In the field of aesthetics and optical illusion, there is also "Big Tape" by websouth:





Nicolas

gotta have fun with it...





congrats Panda. Looks like it is coming together for you.

“Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind.” - Dr. Seuss
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  #916 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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websouth View Post
gotta have fun with it...





congrats Panda. Looks like it is coming together for you.

Wow, thats nice.....took me a minute to find the price bars....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #917 (permalink)
cusp
Bundeburg
 
 
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I really enjoyed your post ... Integrity. Excellent post thanks.

I read a lot and there are some excellent books on how our brains work out there at present. But a slightly older one I discovered by accident speaks to the area you are talking about so you might enjoy reading it at some stage; Strangers to Ourselves: Discovering the Adaptive Unconscious.

It has enriched my view or the conflicts we face in this high pressure job we call trading.

 
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  #918 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Been busy lately, not to much time to post. I'll pick up again next week......was one and done today....sold the very tippy top of the sell of, took my profit at 3XR and closed it down....i got about 25% of the move...oh well. I got what I came for so thats good.

Cheers

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #919 (permalink)
 lolu 
Lagos, Nigeria
 
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Nicolas11 View Post
Hi,

In the field of aesthetics and optical illusion, there is also "Big Tape" by websouth:





Nicolas

Could @ websouth do an NT 7 version of the BIG TAPE ?

Lolu

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  #920 (permalink)
 program 
CA USA
 
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Took a break from coding (learning really) to visit futures.io (formerly BMT).... Spent the last hour and a half reading through some of your journal. Just thought I'd take the time to say I really appreciate what you say and that you take the time to say it.
In short, thanks Panda

-

I have approximate answers, possible beliefs and different degrees of certainty of different things. But I'm not absolutely sure of anything and there are many things i don't know anything about.
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  #921 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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I was one and done today. I had a few things to do relatively early in the day today and so I just took my single trade, hung around a bit and skyped with a couple of friends and then took off for the day. Of course came back to see CL got drilled today but thats the choices we make.

Anyway, a friend really helped me understand some things about multiple time frames today. It was enlighting to say the least. I have attended webinars about MTF and I understand the theory pretty well but the application was always pretty nebulous to say the least in my mind. I am somewhat dense on certain types of concepts after all. But it has created another way for me to determine risk. Size bigger when trading with strong trends, trade smaller when trading against them if you have signals that contradict the higher time frame trends.

So now, I have daily homework. Classify the day as weak long, strong long, weak short, strong short. Size appropriately. Screen shot is an example of strong short. Time to load up.





Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #922 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
I was one and done today. I had a few things to do relatively early in the day today and so I just took my single trade, hung around a bit and skyped with a couple of friends and then took off for the day. Of course came back to see CL got drilled today but thats the choices we make.

Anyway, a friend really helped me understand some things about multiple time frames today. It was enlighting to say the least. I have attended webinars about MTF and I understand the theory pretty well but the application was always pretty nebulous to say the least in my mind. I am somewhat dense on certain types of concepts after all. But it has created another way for me to determine risk. Size bigger when trading with strong trends, trade smaller when trading against them if you have signals that contradict the higher time frame trends.

So now, I have daily homework. Classify the day as weak long, strong long, weak short, strong short. Size appropriately. Screen shot is an example of strong short. Time to load up.

Pardon me if I rip you a new one. But, do you want to be a trader, or do you just want to write about, how you would like to be trader? At least in the ES, days like today can define your year. You don't take them off - you take advantage of them. Traders' are opportunists, and when an opportunity presents itself, they take advantage of it. Do you really think that this "current form" of trading is going to be around forever? You can't take these markets for granted, and you can't take the current structure for granted. At some point , you have to stop rationalizing and making excuses, and grow some cajones and TRADE.

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  #923 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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tigertrader View Post
Pardon me if I rip you a new one. But, do you want to be a trader, or do you just want to write about, how you would like to be trader? At least in the ES, days like today can define your year. You don't take them off - you take advantage of them. Traders' are opportunists, and when an opportunity presents itself, they take advantage of it. Do you really think that this "current form" of trading is going to be around forever? You can't take these markets for granted, and you can't take the current structure for granted. At some point , you have to stop rationalizing and making excuses, and grow some cajones and TRADE.

Perhaps took off for the day was not the correct terminology. I am a stay at home dad. This means during the summer my time is limited and some days much more limited than others. Today was one of those days. There was no choice. Getting a good trade in early was actually lucky. Had it been a slow morning, there would have been no trade at all.

Staying home while my wife works is a trade off we made two and half years ago. I agreed I would take on more of the house work and child care after trading hours in exchange for her supporting us while I learn trading. Its a sacrifice we are all making. These duties increase exponetially during the summer. My kid is a great kid but she's also an only child so she thinks dad is her playmate. I am teaching her that is not the case but I am still in charge of all the summer activities regardless of where they are at.

In addittion to this and due to my somewhat flexible schedule, I am the primary go to person for my retired father who just had quadruple bypass surgery. He is recovering well but still requires someone to help with certain activities he can no longer do. I engaged in this activity today as well.

I chose not to insert these details into todays post as I did not think they were important. I was wrong. Being able to make $1000 for about 15-20 minutes worth of "work" is the important thing here. It will enable me to do the rest of it.

Even now I am making this post during a live concert my wife is singing in while I am doing the back of house sound when I'd rather be focusing on the music. I just know I probably won't get a chance tomorrow.

So as a trader, I trade to live not live to trade. This means on days like today, I must be content with what I get. Will this change? Of course. In the past, I admit I have been less than ruthless on strong trend days. This is due almost entirely to my total lack of confidence to find entries, logical exits and marry the whole thing with sound money management and do it consistently.

When my schedule goes gets back to normal once my kid goes back to school, these days when they happen will result in much more aggressive trading. I have much more confidence in my ability to trade these days far more aggressively. I also think I've figured out to size for these days once they present themselves in context of my risk and money management parameters.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #924 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Perhaps took off for the day was not the correct terminology. I am a stay at home dad. This means during the summer my time is limited and some days much more limited than others. Today was one of those days. There was no choice. Getting a good trade in early was actually lucky. Had it been a slow morning, there would have been no trade at all.

Staying home while my wife works is a trade off we made two and half years ago. I agreed I would take on more of the house work and child care after trading hours in exchange for her supporting us while I learn trading. Its a sacrifice we are all making. These duties increase exponetially during the summer. My kid is a great kid but she's also an only child so she thinks dad is her playmate. I am teaching her that is not the case but I am still in charge of all the summer activities regardless of where they are at.

In addittion to this and due to my somewhat flexible schedule, I am the primary go to person for my retired father who just had quadruple bypass surgery. He is recovering well but still requires someone to help with certain activities he can no longer do. I engaged in this activity today as well.

I chose not to insert these details into todays post as I did not think they were important. I was wrong. Being able to make $1000 for about 15-20 minutes worth of "work" is the important thing here. It will enable me to do the rest of it.

Even now I am making this post during a live concert my wife is singing in while I am doing the back of house sound when I'd rather be focusing on the music. I just know I probably won't get a chance tomorrow.

So as a trader, I trade to live not live to trade. This means on days like today, I must be content with what I get. Will this change? Of course. In the past, I admit I have been less than ruthless on strong trend days. This is due almost entirely to my total lack of confidence to find entries, logical exits and marry the whole thing with sound money management and do it consistently.

When my schedule goes gets back to normal once my kid goes back to school, these days when they happen will result in much more aggressive trading. I have much more confidence in my ability to trade these days far more aggressively. I also think I've figured out to size for these days once they present themselves in context of my risk and money management parameters.

Okay Brian,

You got me on the retired father with the quadruple bypass, although I do have a healthy 98 year mother. But, I do have 4 kids ( 2,5,12,14) and 2 nephews living with us for the Summer, and I do trade out of my house. I have to get the 2 yo and 4 yo dressed, fed, and take them to school/now camp, 3 days a week. By the time I am finished doing all of the above, trading becomes a veritable de-stressor.

Trading is something I can truly focus on and get lost in, and surprisingly, its something I have control of. Not that I can control the market mind you, but I can control how I trade it. I find that not only empowering, but relaxing. Of course, I am used to trading with 700 sweaty Neanderthals surrounding me, spitting in my face, hitting me in the back of the head, and calling me an asshole. So, a little distraction like a few kids is once again, a breath of fresh air.

The point is, my friend. Trading is about attitude and focus, so no matter what are the surroundings and the distractions, you must learn to tune in, and tune out, and you must do what is necessary to accomplish that goal. If it means you have to hire an au pair or nanny to watch your kid , so you can trade with full focus, then thats what you may need to do. Your trading profits from a fully focused effort should more than compensate.

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  #925 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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tigertrader View Post
Okay Brian,

You got me on the retired father with the quadruple bypass, although I do have a healthy 98 year mother. But, I do have 4 kids ( 2,5,12,14) and 2 nephews living with us for the Summer, and I do trade out of my house. I have to get the 2 yo and 4 yo dressed, fed, and take them to school/now camp, 3 days a week. By the time I am finished doing all of the above, trading becomes a veritable de-stressor.

Trading is something I can truly focus on and get lost in, and surprisingly, its something I have control of. Not that I can control the market mind you, but I can control how I trade it. I find that not only empowering, but relaxing. Of course, I am used to trading with 700 sweaty Neanderthals surrounding me, spitting in my face, hitting me in the back of the head, and calling me an asshole. So, a little distraction like a few kids is once again, a breath of fresh air.

The point is, my friend. Trading is about attitude and focus, so no matter what are the surroundings and the distractions, you must learn to tune in, and tune out, and you must do what is necessary to accomplish that goal. If it means you have to hire an au pair or nanny to watch your kid , so you can trade with full focus, then thats what you may need to do. Your trading profits from a fully focused effort should more than compensate.

LOL.... I suppose a few kids is near zen like compared to being in the pits....most days I get 2-3 hours of focused trading before the noise starts. I start at 5:30AM my time which is 30M before the CL pit opens. The family's day usually starts seriously around 7:30 and the kiddo knows not to bug me until I say I am done or its time to leave the house. Most days she doesn't even peep at me until then. Today was an odd day in that everyone had to leave the house early. However, once 8:30-9AM rolls around, things start to heat up here in the house. For me, that's about the hour CL starts its sideways drift which means no great loss most days if I knock off then. I will often go eat breakfast or attend to other household duties during this time and come back around 10:30 or so to see if the last hour offers anything worth trading. My statistics indicate the time between 8:30-10:30 are my least profitable hours. In fact, those times are actually net losers. Not sure if that will remain true long term but over the last 45 days it has been.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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  #926 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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I'm trying to decide if its safe to post today.....is @tigertrader around?

Guess I'll just have to take that risk.

Today's 5M chart opened with the possibility of more selling. I got to the chart a tad late to catch the first signal so took a follow on trade. It went about 10-12 ticks my way, then reversed and stopped out.

Then I saw the support it stopped at. So promptly marked all visible S/R off higher time frames. Now I knew it would be either a strong short day or weak longs on the smaller time frames and counter trend on the larger ones.

I waited until the HTF resistance had been broken, then went long with the first signal. I think it might be a good thing to use conservative exits on weak longs. So took trades off at 1XR and had one come back against me for almost a full stop. Then waited another one out while it ground around and I got out with to little.

As my zero hour approached, I was pretty close to grinding out a minimum day and once the noise started in the house, I decided that was enough. End of week and I'm pretty much wiped out. Spending the rest of the day with my kid. She has some reading, some math and something else I am supposed to help her with today. Should be fun. Afterwords, we head to the library for a program and then off to Sonic Burger for a strawberry slushy. That should get me through to around 2PM. After that, who knows. Oh, and I think I am on schedule to install an window air conditioner for my dad. Depends on if it gets bought today or not. I hope it gets bought very late today so I can install it tomorrow morning when its cooler. Its supposed to be 110+ this afternoon.

Work space is more condensed from yesterday. I have a 30in HD monitor so figured I could get everything on it except the dom. I'll put those on the side monitor. Makes the trading chart a tad small but I think I can handle it.


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  #927 (permalink)
 liquidcci 
Austin, TX
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Spending the rest of the day with my kid. She has some reading, some math and something else I am supposed to help her with today. Should be fun. Afterwords, we head to the library for a program and then off to Sonic Burger for a strawberry slushy.


Just have to say strawberry slushy with a daughter beats trading any day

"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."
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  #928 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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liquidcci View Post
Just have to say strawberry slushy with a daughter beats trading any day

Agreed....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #929 (permalink)
 trendisyourfriend 
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PandaWarrior View Post
I'm trying to decide if its safe to post today.....is @tigertrader around?

Guess I'll just have to take that risk.
...

LOL, don't worry i think he is on Holidays for the rest of the year with all the money he did yesterday.

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  #930 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
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I'm wanting to know what is your signal? I posted a chart with some easy questions. I'm wanting to know why you triggered on some of these trades you have.

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  #931 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Upupandaway View Post
I'm wanting to know what is your signal? I posted a chart with some easy questions. I'm wanting to know why you triggered on some of these trades you have.

The exact reason is that the indicator triggered the trades. However the chart you posted is attached with my thoughts outlined as I watched price action.


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  #932 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
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Ok I get it. You have a "script" or something running in the back ground. The arrows are generated, you didn't manually place them their right? If that is correct, are you willing to show me? I mean what do you use to generate your signal?

I'm guessing that is what you have going on. ITrade2Golf has self generated arrows, from a "script" whatever that is. But not willing to share the ins and out's of it. Why I dont know, are you willing to share those with me? I mean I'd like to know what you do that I dont. Can you tell me that? Will you do tell me that I guess is the better question. Thanks

You can see from my charts they have all the indicators up their. Probable also part of the problem, to much going on, to much to have to remember. Anyways...

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  #933 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Sorry to disappoint but there is no script. If I had one, I'd share it. I put the arrows on there to clearly identify my trading areas. My trades are 100% discretionary and manually entered.

What I meant was, the indicator showed me it was time to take a trade. Look at my chart with the arrows and see if you can figure out what it was about the indicator that said it was time to trade. It's simpler than you think.

It far less than perfect but followed with a high degree of consistency, it's net positive. And it would be even more positive if I held my trades longer or if in the first several days of using it, I didn't trade against it.

There are some reasons I believe it works but those are immaterial at the moment. The indie is freely available here on the forum but again, I think the indie is not the issue. I'll pop over to your thread and reiterate a couple of points. After those points I'll be offline the remainder of the weekend.

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  #934 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
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OH! Well I noticed the moving average but I didn't think that was the indicator you where talking about. I also noticed the "wave like indicator" but again didn't think you meant that. Why did you trigger on them.....humm let me look again...

humm...I see sometimes candles hit of the MA, the wave indicator seems to be above or below the ma before you take any trade at all. What's the rest?

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  #935 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
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PandaWarrior View Post
I'm trying to decide if its safe to post today.....is @tigertrader around?

Guess I'll just have to take that risk.

Today's 5M chart opened with the possibility of more selling. I got to the chart a tad late to catch the first signal so took a follow on trade. It went about 10-12 ticks my way, then reversed and stopped out.

Then I saw the support it stopped at. So promptly marked all visible S/R off higher time frames. Now I knew it would be either a strong short day or weak longs on the smaller time frames and counter trend on the larger ones.

I waited until the HTF resistance had been broken, then went long with the first signal. I think it might be a good thing to use conservative exits on weak longs. So took trades off at 1XR and had one come back against me for almost a full stop. Then waited another one out while it ground around and I got out with to little.

As my zero hour approached, I was pretty close to grinding out a minimum day and once the noise started in the house, I decided that was enough. End of week and I'm pretty much wiped out. Spending the rest of the day with my kid. She has some reading, some math and something else I am supposed to help her with today. Should be fun. Afterwords, we head to the library for a program and then off to Sonic Burger for a strawberry slushy. That should get me through to around 2PM. After that, who knows. Oh, and I think I am on schedule to install an window air conditioner for my dad. Depends on if it gets bought today or not. I hope it gets bought very late today so I can install it tomorrow morning when its cooler. Its supposed to be 110+ this afternoon.

Work space is more condensed from yesterday. I have a 30in HD monitor so figured I could get everything on it except the dom. I'll put those on the side monitor. Makes the trading chart a tad small but I think I can handle it.


Above you said "Then I saw the support it stopped at. So promptly marked all visible S/R off higher time frames. Now I knew it would be either a strong short day or weak longs on the smaller time frames and counter trend on the larger ones. "

I'm not sure I'm seeing what "support it stoped at" as you say. I'm not sure I see what your seeing. Could you explain just that portion again, and how you "knew it would be a strong short day or weak longs on smaller timeframes" Thank you

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  #936 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Upupandaway View Post
Above you said "Then I saw the support it stopped at. So promptly marked all visible S/R off higher time frames. Now I knew it would be either a strong short day or weak longs on the smaller time frames and counter trend on the larger ones. "

I'm not sure I'm seeing what "support it stoped at" as you say. I'm not sure I see what your seeing. Could you explain just that portion again, and how you "knew it would be a strong short day or weak longs on smaller timeframes" Thank you

Look, I am still learning here. I just started deciding if it gonna be a strong short or weak long last week. Its based entirely on an admittedly VERY WEAK understanding of multiple time frames. Please do not ascribe to much to what I say. I've been in sales my entire adult life....I'm good at sounding like I know what I'm talking about without really knowing.

That being said, all the higher time frames were short. I assumed the 5M would also be short and it was for a very short time. But it stopped in mid air and that made me look for support I hadn't seen before. Then I went back to the higher time frames, marked the S/R on those and copied them to the lower time frames.

At that point, the 5M would turn short again and we would have a strong short day meaning all time frames were short or we would have what looked like a decent trend on the lower time frames like the 15M and 5M while the higher time frames just looked like they were experiencing a counter trend move or correction. And that's exactly what happened.

So I say if the lower time frames are in disagreement with the higher time frames, the move is "weak" meaning the lower time frames are fighting head winds trying to go opposite of the higher time frames. If its with the HTF, then its strong. Thats it.

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 JEHs 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Look, I am still learning here. I just started deciding if it gonna be a strong short or weak long last week. Its based entirely on an admittedly VERY WEAK understanding of multiple time frames. Please do not ascribe to much to what I say. I've been in sales my entire adult life....I'm good at sounding like I know what I'm talking about without really knowing.

That being said, all the higher time frames were short. I assumed the 5M would also be short and it was for a very short time. But it stopped in mid air and that made me look for support I hadn't seen before. Then I went back to the higher time frames, marked the S/R on those and copied them to the lower time frames.

At that point, the 5M would turn short again and we would have a strong short day meaning all time frames were short or we would have what looked like a decent trend on the lower time frames like the 15M and 5M while the higher time frames just looked like they were experiencing a counter trend move or correction. And that's exactly what happened.

So I say if the lower time frames are in disagreement with the higher time frames, the move is "weak" meaning the lower time frames are fighting head winds trying to go opposite of the higher time frames. If its with the HTF, then its strong. Thats it.


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  #938 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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I've had a rough couple of days. Not able to get in the zone so to speak. Seeing the market more or less ok but for some reason, hesitating to enter, and worst of all, not holding trades even close to long enough.

Today I worked hard on this. While I had several set ups I really liked, I only took three, one I scratched, one I lost and the last one I made sure I held long enough. I just broke even on the day. Holding the last trade was good. I was in it for 2 hours. By far my longest trade ever. I have had 20 min trades and once I held for about 35 minutes. That one was a loser. But today, I didn't really care if it lost or won, I just wanted to make sure I gave it the chance it needed to win. I needed to feel what it felt like to hold. To be totally transparent, I left the computer for a bit. In fact, I left the house. I needed to run a real fast errand but would have been back in around 20 minutes. I deliberately stayed away for 90 minutes. It was eating at me. I text'd my friend to get a price update. Finally I made it back and moved my stop to support and got out a few minutes later.

The trade filled my first target and my last target was missed by around 15-20 ticks. I held it from that point until it broke support and then I exited. It made my day net positive but I don't care about that at least at this point. What is important is I finally gave a trade plenty of room and plenty of time to succeed.

Tomorrow, my plan is to take my set ups, and just sit. No matter how long it takes. I will not trade again until I either get stopped out, price fills my targets or price action says its time to be in the market the opposite direction.

I'll have some more time tomorrow for chart mark ups and analysis as my kid has some activities that do not require my input or presence.

Right now I am reading some threads, trying to listen to Suri Dudella's webinar and makeing sure my kid is doing her summer homework, answer questions, etc.....Suri is losing....may have to pause him til tonight.

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  #939 (permalink)
 liquidcci 
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Panda thanks for being so honest. That is truly the hard part of trading. Doing what your rules or system says to do no matter what is an inner war worth fighting but so so hard.

"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."
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 PandaWarrior 
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liquidcci View Post
Panda thanks for being so honest. That is truly the hard part of trading. Doing what your rules or system says to do no matter what is an inner war worth fighting but so so hard.

Well I had an aha moment last night. I call myself a trend follower which by definition means you find an established trend and get on board or you find a turning point in the market and get in there. I suck at the turning point thing, so not even going there but established trend is easier.

But then the aha moment came. I am a trend trader (aren't we all?) and yet I refuse to do the one thing trend traders are suppose to do, find a logical exit point and get out there or hold until your definition of trend has been violated. I have never done either. So am I a trend trader or not?

Turns out I am not although I want to be. Instead I have been a "Market Timer". One of those guys the dudes with the series 7 licenses say will always lose money trying to time the market. The trouble is this, timing the market is ok, just stay in the damn thing until it says its over. Forget the noise. Pull backs.....I laugh at them. I buy more on the pull backs.....at least that's what I told my clients when I held the dreaded licenses. Now I'm trading. Pull backs....hate them, gotta get out before they turn my winner into a loser.

So today, hesitated pulling the trigger knowing I was gonna have to sit a long time in the market. I tried a couple of times and got out to soon on both of them. Finally I got a winner in terms of time in market.

Tomorrow, time to do it right. time in market with reasonable and clearly visible locations to trail stop. Otherwise, just wait.

I calculated the trades from yesterday assuming I did it right, (I didn't). There were three entries. All winners of at least 4XR. That means it took about 3 minutes total to enter, set stops and position targets. The trades were live approximately 95 minutes total between the three of them. Which meant the vast majority of the day should have been spent sitting still and reading a dime store mystery or learning a new language or playing online poker or making coffee or, or, or, or........anything but screwing with the trades. At one point, I had three hours between set ups. What to do.....just wait.

Sit all day for exactly 3 minutes of "work". I have not been prepared to do this at all. I have been prepared to draw trend lines, S/R, change chart colors, indicator settings, time frames, bar types, you name it, none of it key to trading correctly. I added up yesterday's profit potential based on my scale out areas and risk and it worked out to risking around $2000 to make almost $5000. Not to bad. And I got zippo out of it....well not completely zippo, I got a serious case of nausea at the stupidity of it all.

Tradings not hard. Any fool can read an indicator, but the pro's actually do what the indicator says they should do when they say they should do it. Both entry and exit. In this context, an indicator can be any method you enter and exit the market with regardless of what is drawn on the chart.

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  #941 (permalink)
 liquidcci 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Well I had an aha moment last night. I call myself a trend follower which by definition means you find an established trend and get on board or you find a turning point in the market and get in there. I suck at the turning point thing, so not even going there but established trend is easier.

But then the aha moment came. I am a trend trader (aren't we all?) and yet I refuse to do the one thing trend traders are suppose to do, find a logical exit point and get out there or hold until your definition of trend has been violated. I have never done either. So am I a trend trader or not?

Turns out I am not although I want to be. Instead I have been a "Market Timer". One of those guys the dudes with the series 7 licenses say will always lose money trying to time the market. The trouble is this, timing the market is ok, just stay in the damn thing until it says its over. Forget the noise. Pull backs.....I laugh at them. I buy more on the pull backs.....at least that's what I told my clients when I held the dreaded licenses. Now I'm trading. Pull backs....hate them, gotta get out before they turn my winner into a loser.

So today, hesitated pulling the trigger knowing I was gonna have to sit a long time in the market. I tried a couple of times and got out to soon on both of them. Finally I got a winner in terms of time in market.

Tomorrow, time to do it right. time in market with reasonable and clearly visible locations to trail stop. Otherwise, just wait.

I calculated the trades from yesterday assuming I did it right, (I didn't). There were three entries. All winners of at least 4XR. That means it took about 3 minutes total to enter, set stops and position targets. The trades were live approximately 95 minutes total between the three of them. Which meant the vast majority of the day should have been spent sitting still and reading a dime store mystery or learning a new language or playing online poker or making coffee or, or, or, or........anything but screwing with the trades. At one point, I had three hours between set ups. What to do.....just wait.

Sit all day for exactly 3 minutes of "work". I have not been prepared to do this at all. I have been prepared to draw trend lines, S/R, change chart colors, indicator settings, time frames, bar types, you name it, none of it key to trading correctly. I added up yesterday's profit potential based on my scale out areas and risk and it worked out to risking around $2000 to make almost $5000. Not to bad. And I got zippo out of it....well not completely zippo, I got a serious case of nausea at the stupidity of it all.

Tradings not hard. Any fool can read an indicator, but the pro's actually do what the indicator says they should do when they say they should do it. Both entry and exit. In this context, an indicator can be any method you enter and exit the market with regardless of what is drawn on the chart.

Been there many times. Now you have to figure out what it takes for you as an individual to stay in. For me it was going completely automated. But that is not a necessity or a reality for everyone. Not an easy journey.

"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."
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  #942 (permalink)
 websouth 
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Here are some ideas... I know you have been watching different higher time frames. This "wave" is 2-200ema. You are essentially trading the yellow part on this it is 2-15ema (I know you are using 2-21ema)

So when is a pull back a change in trend...? usually after volatility slows down. The graphic has some ideas on that showing when volatility slowed down and price goes into a lower part of the big wave (the red part) vs just dipping into the aqua or green.


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  #943 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
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PandaWarrior View Post
I've had a rough couple of days. Not able to get in the zone so to speak. Seeing the market more or less ok but for some reason, hesitating to enter, and worst of all, not holding trades even close to long enough.

Mark Douglas' book Trading in the Zone has some interesting observations.

I AM A CONSISTENT WINNER BECAUSE:
1. I objectively identify my edges.
2. I predefine the risk of every trade.
3. I completely accept risk or I am willing to let go of the trade.
4. I act on my edges without reservation or hesitation.
5. I pay myself as the market makes money available to me.
6. I continually monitor my susceptibility for making errors.
7. I understand the absolute necessity of these principles of consistent
success and, therefore, I never violate them.

Now he states this...

Taking Profits.

Believe it or not, of all the skills one needs to learn to be a consistently successful trader, learning to take profits is probably the most difficult to master. A multitude of personal, often very complicated psychological factors, as well as the effectiveness of one's market analysis, enter into the equation. Unfortunately, sorting out this complex matrix of issues goes way beyond the scope of this book. I point this out so that those of you who might be inclined to beat yourselves up for leaving money on the table can relax and give yourselves a break. Even after you've acquired all the other skills, it might take a very long time before you get this one down pat.

Don't despair. There is a way to set up a profit-taking regime that at least fulfills the objective of the fifth principle of consistency ("I pay myself as the market makes money available to me"). If you're going to establish a belief in yourself that you're a consistent winner, then you will have to create experiences that correspond with that belief. Because the object of the belief is winning consistently, how you take profits in a winning trade is of paramount importance.

This is the only part of the exercise in which you will have some degree of discretion about what you do. The underlying premise is that, in a winning trade, you never know how far the market is going to go in your direction. Markets rarely go straight up or straight down. (Many of the NASDAQ Internet stocks in the fall of 1999 were an obvious exception to this statement.) Typically, markets go up and then retrace some portion of the upward move; or go down and then retrace some portion of the downward move. These proportional retracements can make it very difficult to stay in a winning trade. You would have to be an extremely sophisticated and objective analyst to make the distinction between a normal
retracement, when the market still has the potential to move in the original direction of your trade, and a retracement that isn't normal, when the potential for any further movement in the original direction of your trade is greatly diminished, if not nonexistent. If you never know how far the market is going to go in your direction, then when and how do you take profits? The question of when is a function of your ability to read the market and pick the most likely spots for it to stop. In the absence of an ability to do this objectively, the best course of action from a psychological perspective is to divide your position into thirds (or quarters), and scale out the position as the market moves in your favor. Here's the way I scale out of a winning position.

When I first started trading, especially during the first three years (1979 through 1981), I would thoroughly and regularly analyze the results of my trading activities. One of the things I discovered was that I rarely got stopped out of a trade for a loss, without the market first going at least a little way in my direction. On average, only one out of every ten trades was an immediate loser that never went in my direction. Out of the other 25 to 30 percent of the trades that were ultimately losers, the market usually went in my direction by three or four tics before revising and stopping me out. I calculated that if I got into the habit of taking at least a third of my original position off every time the market gave me those three or four tics, at the end of the year the accumulated winnings would go a long way towards paying my
expenses. I was right. To this day, I always, without reservation or hesitation, take off a portion of a winning position whenever the market gives me a little to take. How much that might be depends on the market; it will be a different amount in each case.

In a bond trade, I usually don't risk more than six tics to find out if the trade is going to work. Using a three-contract trade as an example, here's how it works: If I get into a position and the market immediately goes against me without giving me at least four tics first, I get stopped out of the trade for an 18-tic loss, but as I've indicated, this doesn't happen often. More likely, the trade goes in my favor by some small amount before becoming a loser. If it goes in my favor by at
least four tics, I take those four tics on one contract. What I have done is reduce my total risk on the other two contracts by 10 tics. If the market then stops me out of the last two contracts, the net loss on the trade is only 8 tics.

If I don't get stopped out on the last two contracts and the market moves in my direction, I take the next third of the position off at some predetermined profit objective. This is based on some longer time frame support or resistance, or on the test of a previous significant high or low. When I take profits on the second third, I also move the stop-loss to my original entry point. Now I have a net profit on the trade regardless of what happens to the last third of the position.
In other words, I now have a "risk-free opportunity." I can't emphasize enough nor can the publisher make the words on this page big enough to stress how important it is for you to experience the state of "risk-free opportunity." When you set up a situation in which Thinking Like a Trader there is "risk-free opportunity," there's no way to lose unless something
extremely unusual happens, like a limit up or limit down move hrough your stop. If, under normal circumstances, there's no way to lose, you get to experience what it really feels like to be in a trade with a relaxed, carefree state of mind.

To illustrate this point, imagine that you are in a winning trade; the market made a fairly significant move in your direction, but you didn't take any profits because you thought it was going even further. However, instead of going further, the market trades all the way back to or very close to your original entry point. You panic and, as a result, liquidate the trade, because you don't want to let what was once a winning trade turn into a loser. But as soon as you're out, the market
bounces right back into what would have been a winning trade. If you had locked in some profits by scaling out, putting yourself in a riskfree opportunity situation, it s very unlikely that you would have panicked or felt any stress or anxiety for that matter.

I still have a third of my position left. What now? I look for the most likely place for the market to stop. This is usually a significant high or low in a longer time frame. I place my order to liquidate just below that spot in a long position or just above that spot in a short position. I place my orders just above or just below because I don't care about squeezing the last tic out of the trade. I have found over the years that trying to do that just isn't worth it.

One other factor you need to take into consideration is your risk-to-reward ratio. The risk-to-reward ratio is the dollar value of how much risk you have to take relative to the profit potential. Ideally, your risk-to-reward ratio should be at least 3:1, which means you are only risking one dollar for every three dollars of profit potential. If your edge and the way you scale out of your trades give you a 3:1 risk-to-reward ratio, your winning trade percentage can be less than 50 percent and you will still make money consistently. A 3:1 risk-to-reward ratio is ideal. However, for the purposes of
this exercise, it doesn't matter what it is, nor does it matter how effectively you scale out, as long as you do it. Do the best you can to pay yourself at reasonable profit levels when the market makes the money available. Every portion of a trade that you take off as a winner will contribute to your belief that you are a consistent winner. All the numbers will eventually come into better alignment as your belief in your ability to be consistent becomes stronger.

I know this is a long post that I cut an pasted, but I think this is very interesting, as this is exactly what I did this morning on my first trade. Thats how I was able to stay with it for over an hour.

My last contract was stopped out at 96 ticks. I held through the news and tightened my stop, so that if it took off, i still had my position.

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 trendisyourfriend 
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Very informative VinceVirgil. I was under the impression you were not using multiple parts in your journal. Is the scaling out approach something new to you?

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 VinceVirgil 
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trendisyourfriend View Post
Very informative VinceVirgil. I was under the impression you were not using multiple parts in your journal. Is the scaling out approach something new to you?

No...have been using it for months. Its the only way I can stay in a trade for a long period of time, knowing that I have a no risk position, and I can manage it from there. Targets vary. But the general premise is the same...

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 PandaWarrior 
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websouth View Post
Here are some ideas... I know you have been watching different higher time frames. This "wave" is 2-200ema. You are essentially trading the yellow part on this it is 2-15ema (I know you are using 2-21ema)

So when is a pull back a change in trend...? usually after volatility slows down. The graphic has some ideas on that showing when volatility slowed down and price goes into a lower part of the big wave (the red part) vs just dipping into the aqua or green.


Thats a pretty chart, I don't have anything like that.....the indie I use is hard coded with the MA's and I'm not a coder so not gonna change them at this point.

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 PandaWarrior 
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VinceVirgil View Post
I know this is a long post that I cut an pasted, but I think this is very interesting, as this is exactly what I did this morning on my first trade. Thats how I was able to stay with it for over an hour.

My last contract was stopped out at 96 ticks. I held through the news and tightened my stop, so that if it took off, i still had my position.


I've read Mark's book three times. The part you quoted is the only part of the book I highlighted. I've struggled with the scale out thing now for a long time. Its not optimum in terms of holding the entire thing to the larger targets. BUT it is optimum in terms of helping one stay rational with regards to their emotional issues of holding for big targets.

I currently scale out at 1X and try to hold for 4X risk. What typically happens is I get the first position scaled out and then I get a BE on the second bit or it goes up to 2XR and comes back, and after a period of back and forwards I get impatient and get out. Usually just before it shoots in my direction....or, I determine to hold it no matter what and its a loser. Or, I hold it like today and it doesnt get to 4XR and I settle for something I probably could have had much earlier in the trade without the extended hold time. Its all about the uncertainty. I know that and I accept that but my personality is strategic planner, an attempt to introduce some order into chaos. Perhaps that will never happen and I just need to fully accept that.

Anyway, I've been toying with the idea of a three stage scale out like Mark Douglas suggests. I can capture the meat of a possible move while giving myself the possibility of capturing a large runner with the last bit. This will make me feel better about taking profit and feel less badly about letting price come back on me with the runner. I'll decide before tomorrow. I also have to take into account my risk. My normal risk is 4 lots. This gets me +/- with in my per trade risk profile. If I go three positions, I won't be able to scale out evenly. I am tempted to scale out the first two at 1XR , 1 at 2XR and let the last one rest run to where ever it goes.

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 PandaWarrior 
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4 lots. 20 tick stop, scale out at 1XR with two lots, 1 lot at 2XR and 1 lot at 4XR. Total risk is $800.00

1X *2 = $400
2X *1 = $400
4X *1 = $800

Total $1600

R:R is 2:1

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 VinceVirgil 
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PandaWarrior View Post
I've read Mark's book three times. The part you quoted is the only part of the book I highlighted. I've struggled with the scale out thing now for a long time. Its not optimum in terms of holding the entire thing to the larger targets. BUT it is optimum in terms of helping one stay rational with regards to their emotional issues of holding for big targets.

I currently scale out at 1X and try to hold for 4X risk. What typically happens is I get the first position scaled out and then I get a BE on the second bit or it goes up to 2XR and comes back, and after a period of back and forwards I get impatient and get out. Usually just before it shoots in my direction....or, I determine to hold it no matter what and its a loser. Or, I hold it like today and it doesnt get to 4XR and I settle for something I probably could have had much earlier in the trade without the extended hold time. Its all about the uncertainty. I know that and I accept that but my personality is strategic planner, an attempt to introduce some order into chaos. Perhaps that will never happen and I just need to fully accept that.

Anyway, I've been toying with the idea of a three stage scale out like Mark Douglas suggests. I can capture the meat of a possible move while giving myself the possibility of capturing a large runner with the last bit. This will make me feel better about taking profit and feel less badly about letting price come back on me with the runner. I'll decide before tomorrow. I also have to take into account my risk. My normal risk is 4 lots. This gets me +/- with in my per trade risk profile. If I go three positions, I won't be able to scale out evenly. I am tempted to scale out the first two at 1XR , 1 at 2XR and let the last one rest run to where ever it goes.

I should have known! Spent all that time cutting and pasting that I can never get back!

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 PandaWarrior 
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Another thought occurs to me.....

Trade 1. I get scale one and two filled. No risk trade at this point. Strong trend appears to be in motion. Price pulls back. I get a continuation entry.....ADD another 3 lots, scale out as normal.

Multiplication of existing trade. Dollar cost averaging for the series 7 types.

I wonder if I can do it?

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 VinceVirgil 
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PandaWarrior View Post
4 lots. 20 tick stop, scale out at 1XR with two lots, 1 lot at 2XR and 1 lot at 4XR. Total risk is $800.00

1X *2 = $400
2X *1 = $400
4X *1 = $800

Total $1600

R:R is 2:1

That sure looks like it would work.

In Marks book, he would move his stop tighter after the first target, then the runner to BE after the second contract, and manage the runner after there.

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 VinceVirgil 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Another thought occurs to me.....

Trade 1. I get scale one and two filled. No risk trade at this point. Strong trend appears to be in motion. Price pulls back. I get a continuation entry.....ADD another 3 lots, scale out as normal.

Multiplication of existing trade. Dollar cost averaging for the series 7 types.

I wonder if I can do it?

Maybe not all 3, but maybe another portion. How good are you calculating the risk in your head while in the trade?

Pressing the trade? Say you have a runner working, you are ahead 60 ticks, pullback 20, signal is valid, in another 2 lots, stop loss +20 on the single lot. If it comes back another 20, you are only down 20 ticks on the 3 lots.

If it retraces to the previous position, your risk is 1:3. But if it goes another 20, it 1:6...sweet.

I think I just talked myself into it.

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 liquidcci 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Another thought occurs to me.....

Trade 1. I get scale one and two filled. No risk trade at this point. Strong trend appears to be in motion. Price pulls back. I get a continuation entry.....ADD another 3 lots, scale out as normal.

Multiplication of existing trade. Dollar cost averaging for the series 7 types.

I wonder if I can do it?

Panda there are times scaling and using BE's work. But your stats need show they work. I say that because can cause you to lose over time. In other words don't do just because makes you feel better emotionally unless your stats tell you to do it. I can understand using BE's for emotional reasons and may be worth giving up some profit to do so in some cases. But test extensively because to many can make a system unprofitable.

"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."
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 PandaWarrior 
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Much better but still 50%.

Today I got up to late for the longs. Price traded straight into my higher time frame resistance and after looking at the daily chart, I decided it would either be a break up long day or it would fail and sell off.

After it failed at the high, I started looking for shorts. I got a support break and then a smaller risk bar to enter on.

I entered, put my targets and stops and sat back. 1st and 2nd targets filled. The price got to 3rd target near 4XR and paused with out filling. I exited 3XR.

After that, I waited until the support that had been put in was broken but there was a large buying candle off the LOD. So that made me a bit nervous and so on the next short, I put on half a position and elected to exit a tick or two before the LOD. As it turns out, that was also the supreme court's misguided decision regarding health care and the market got killed. All target zones were destroyed had I went in with full position and multiple targets. However, I am glad I traded as I did, It could have gone the other way just as fast. That being said, I made decision not based on upcoming news but fear of what I thought the large buying candle was telling me.

My new mantra is this: I am a trend follower, find a trend, get in, sit down, shut up and hold on.

Last night I spent some time thinking about my mental state and emotional state the last couple of days. What I found was this.

I was trading with a fear mindset. Specifically fear of missing out. Some might call this greed but to me, greed is trying to take to much out of a move, or over sizing because you think you're invincible. So I was jumping in to soon because I felt I might miss something, then getting out because I knew I had screwed up the entry. This caused more mental chaos which leads to more irrational behavior. The key to avoiding all this is to recognize the mental state as its happening and acknowledge it and then let it pass over you like water off a ducks back. Asking myself this question, is this the most efficient thing I can do right now in my best interest? Can I justify this trade on any basis? Can I wait a bit longer and see the set up better? What do I need right now to make a good decision?

The answer is always easy. Its following the answer that's hard. The last two days, I've felt the emotions but not let them pass through and over me. Instead, I've internalized them and allowed them to compromise my performance. Today I was determined to experience the fear, allow it to pass and then trade. And sure enough, it worked. The second trade was less successful to be sure but I did the same exercise to even allow myself the option of taking it. I compromised with my fear by exiting early in exchange for taking it in the first place. Was this a win? In part it was. Did I experience regret after seeing it nose dive after I exited? Yes of course. Overall though, it was a win.

One day down, rest of my trading career to go.


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 Gary 
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PandaWarrior View Post
...My new mantra is this: I am a trend follower, find a trend, get in, sit down, shut up and hold on.

How are you 'finding' the trend?

As consistently profitable traders.. "We get paid to wait, and we wait to get paid."
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 PandaWarrior 
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Gary View Post
How are you 'finding' the trend?

The million dollar question. Until recently, it was based 100% on the indicator, but introducing the HTF as well as insisting that logical support/resistance areas be compromised first is helping filter out some noise.

But I am certainly using the indie heavily. It does a reasonable job of showing an established trend. I recognize and accept the fact that by the time the indie is showing an established trend, I have missed some of it. I am fully ok with that.

Take a look at today's chart. It's pretty darn clear today and we don't always get such nice follow through but the levels I marked at the top were not breached in any meaningful way, price pulled back to support....I don't buy at thos levels so no trade, then it broke that level and then I got an entry bar to short. At that point, a long trend was over and a new short trend attempt underway.

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 PandaWarrior 
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Missed quite a few days on this. Haven't felt like it much. I used to feel guilty about not doing stuff like this every single day. I don't have this guilt complex any longer.

Its really hot here. 115+ yesterday. And its unusually humid for this area of the state. If you're out in it much, you can get worn down real fast. Especially if you've ever had heat exhaustion, heat stroke or other heat related issues. I have had a severe heat related incident a year or so right after I moved here back in the 80's. This means I need to be real careful in the heat. Consequently I stay out of it as much as possible.

There are times of course I must be out in the heat for an extended period of time. I tend to be real grumpy during those periods. Yesterday, I was putting gas in the paid for vehichle....which incidently, I am grateful for, but while filling up the tank, I noticed a couple of cars parked at the far side of the parking lot. One of the cars had the hood up and a man was working under the car. Another car was sitting next to it and a young lady was sitting there waiting. This was going on in the direct sunlight at the hottest part of the day.

Right there I felt a degree of compassion for those people. I offered to help and they said they had it under control and so I left. But the episode triggered something to be grateful for. its a simple one. I am grateful for a vehicle that runs and has great AC. Stupid I know but its very real. About 20 years ago, I spent a summer without AC in the car I was driving and living here in the summer, AC is something to be really grateful for.

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 PandaWarrior 
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I fat fingered my first entry of the day. Got in to late and started to freak out about the risk....So I took some profit early to take the pressure off and then exited the rest a bit later.

Second trade was just looking for a break of the level that kept shrinking over the course of a couple of hours. Basically I set an entry with targets and stops and just walked away. Came back an hour later with profit targets taken care of.

A very boring morning. Very little work on my part. Just waiting around mostly. Anyway, thats it for the week. I am satisfied with the progress I've made the last two days in terms of my mental and emotional development.

Time to take the kiddo to the movies in a bit.
Cheers


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 kalalex 
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PandaWarrior View Post
I fat fingered my first entry of the day. Got in to late and started to freak out about the risk....So I took some profit early to take the pressure off and then exited the rest a bit later.

Second trade was just looking for a break of the level that kept shrinking over the course of a couple of hours. Basically I set an entry with targets and stops and just walked away. Came back an hour later with profit targets taken care of.

A very boring morning. Very little work on my part. Just waiting around mostly. Anyway, thats it for the week. I am satisfied with the progress I've made the last two days in terms of my mental and emotional development.

Time to take the kiddo to the movies in a bit.
Cheers


PB,

First, have fun out there with your daughter and good weekend too.

After you come back answer to this question when you can.

I think lots of guys, including me of course, will have really hard time waiting for your 2nd signal.
My case, I'd tried long and in & out at least a couple times losing some or BE at best during the 2 hour period from 8-10 (your chart).
To the point,,,what made you wait till 10. You must have something to look forward to,,,,to wait that long I guess.
Just trying to go inside your mind...
Thanks.

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 VinceVirgil 
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PandaWarrior View Post

Its really hot here. 115+ yesterday. And its unusually humid for this area of the state. If you're out in it much, you can get worn down real fast. Especially if you've ever had heat exhaustion, heat stroke or other heat related issues. I have had a severe heat related incident a year or so right after I moved here back in the 80's. This means I need to be real careful in the heat. Consequently I stay out of it as much as possible.

.

Heat exhaustion ...not pleasant but if you know what to look for, you deal with it ASAP.

Heat stroke...thats real bad.

My son was playing roller hockey on a real hot day when he was 9 years old in an enclosed arena, with no air. Well, there were only 5 skaters, and it was hot on that cement. Coach tell him to get back on the rink only 1 spare (4 skaters a side). I see my son shaking his head not. Coach is pointing at him and talking...I can see it from across the rink. So i go down there to chesck it out.

Well, my son is a little disoriented, he is flushed, but hes dry...not sweating... early signs of heat stroke!

Man I freaked a little. Took him out side into the shade, stripped him down to his underwear, got some water in him and on him, under his arms back of his neck, soaked his hair.

Took about 25 minutes, but he started to come around. I wasnt sure how close he was to passing out, but it seemed pretty close.

Just fortunate I went down there when i did, and I knew what to do. ( I have advanced first aid training)

Last time he ever played summer roller hockey. Coach didnt have a clue.

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 GridKing 
San Diego, CA USA
 
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I went for a bike ride in vegas once middle of summer, never do that again...


Heat Strokes Treatment - Effective Home remedies for Heat Stroke

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  #962 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
Dallas/Tx
 
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Panda isn't that first trade before the open? Like 7:50 it looks like? Just wondering, if you trade before the open.

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  #963 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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VinceVirgil View Post
Heat exhaustion ...not pleasant but if you know what to look for, you deal with it ASAP.

Heat stroke...thats real bad.

My son was playing roller hockey on a real hot day when he was 9 years old in an enclosed arena, with no air. Well, there were only 5 skaters, and it was hot on that cement. Coach tell him to get back on the rink only 1 spare (4 skaters a side). I see my son shaking his head not. Coach is pointing at him and talking...I can see it from across the rink. So i go down there to chesck it out.

Well, my son is a little disoriented, he is flushed, but hes dry...not sweating... early signs of heat stroke!

Man I freaked a little. Took him out side into the shade, stripped him down to his underwear, got some water in him and on him, under his arms back of his neck, soaked his hair.

Took about 25 minutes, but he started to come around. I wasnt sure how close he was to passing out, but it seemed pretty close.

Just fortunate I went down there when i did, and I knew what to do. ( I have advanced first aid training)

Last time he ever played summer roller hockey. Coach didnt have a clue.

Was working in a neighbor's backyard doing some chores for them.....I have no idea how long I was passed out....just remember things going black and waking some some time later laying on the ground in full sun....Mid August, massive headache, no sweat on me at all, muscles severely contracted and stiff.....literally crawled on my belly to some shade under a tree and found a water hose there. Luckily it was close to the handle and I managed to get it on. Took a long time but finally got to where I could stand up and walk home. Don't remember much aboutt that afternoon....just the headache and the blackness that settled in right before I passed out.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 PandaWarrior 
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kalalex View Post
PB,

First, have fun out there with your daughter and good weekend too.

After you come back answer to this question when you can.

I think lots of guys, including me of course, will have really hard time waiting for your 2nd signal.
My case, I'd tried long and in & out at least a couple times losing some or BE at best during the 2 hour period from 8-10 (your chart).
To the point,,,what made you wait till 10. You must have something to look forward to,,,,to wait that long I guess.
Just trying to go inside your mind...
Thanks.

Well, there was a signal earlier but I didnt take it, then I noticed the stop had not been violated even with all the back and forth going on. So I drew in the levels and waited. Right before the break happened, I noticed the price ladder was speeding up a bit. Both up and down. Truthfully I had an order to go short as I figured there was more room to the downside, but once the price started working up, I knew better than to fight the trend. So I place my order a few ticks above the level so a random HH would not fake me out and then stepped away for awhile.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #965 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Upupandaway View Post
Panda isn't that first trade before the open? Like 7:50 it looks like? Just wondering, if you trade before the open.


Yes & yes.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #966 (permalink)
 kalalex 
Up the Ladder, CA
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Well, there was a signal earlier but I didnt take it, then I noticed the stop had not been violated even with all the back and forth going on. So I drew in the levels and waited. Right before the break happened, I noticed the price ladder was speeding up a bit. Both up and down. Truthfully I had an order to go short as I figured there was more room to the downside, but once the price started working up, I knew better than to fight the trend. So I place my order a few ticks above the level so a random HH would not fake me out and then stepped away for awhile.

Ooookay.

I thought you waited till the small bar at the 2nd arrow and placed stop just above the bar.
Also I think I found out what I'm doing wrong at the same time.
I guess I'm trying to be too exact.

Thank you for taking time to answer.

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  #967 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
Dallas/Tx
 
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Ok on your third trade their how did you pick out that one. It didn't break out, nor was it an inside bar. And I pointed out other bars on the picture, why not these bars? How did you pick the bar you did? Thanks

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  #968 (permalink)
 AttitudeTrader 
Dallas, TX, USA
 
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Just a quick note to tell you how much I appreciate what you're doing here.

I've seen you around the forum for a long time, but as I'm very careful about what I read (and am influenced by) I see I've been missing out on the great stuff here.

As is often the case, I've stumbled across what you're doing here lately while I'm at the same time coming to similar conclusions: I've seen the benefits of multiple time frames, and I'm experiencing the power of trends (see my new journal for a chart or two).

Additionally, your Gratitude Project, whether you're consistent with it or not, is, I believe, extraordinarily beneficial – in every way. I was influenced, by watching The Secret and listening to the audio book The Power (both Rhonda Byrne productions – many scoff at these things but I don't care), to develop the habit of giving thanks and being grateful for anything I can think of as soon as I wake up in the morning. It has changed the way I start my day and improved my overall attitude, which is, as you have already alluded to, more important than any trading method/system.

I saw some of the Mark Douglas text in the thread here. One of my favorite passages is one of his regarding attitude:


Quoting 
It's a fundamental shift in attitude that accounts for their success, not some brilliant realization about the market, as most people erroneously assume.

This erroneous assumption is prevalent among traders simply because very few of them really understand, at the deepest levels, just how critical a component attitude is in determining one's success.

- Mark Douglas

Anyway, thanks for what you're doing here! Have a great weekend.

"Is it hard? Not if you have the right attitude. It's having the right attitude that's hard." - Robert Pirsig
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  #969 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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Upupandaway View Post
Ok on your third trade their how did you pick out that one. It didn't break out, nor was it an inside bar. And I pointed out other bars on the picture, why not these bars? How did you pick the bar you did? Thanks



Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 PandaWarrior 
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D4YTR4D3R View Post
Just a quick note to tell you how much I appreciate what you're doing here.

I've seen you around the forum for a long time, but as I'm very careful about what I read (and am influenced by) I see I've been missing out on the great stuff here.

As is often the case, I've stumbled across what you're doing here lately while I'm at the same time coming to similar conclusions: I've seen the benefits of multiple time frames, and I'm experiencing the power of trends (see my new journal for a chart or two).

Additionally, your Gratitude Project, whether you're consistent with it or not, is, I believe, extraordinarily beneficial – in every way. I was influenced, by watching The Secret and listening to the audio book The Power (both Rhonda Byrne productions – many scoff at these things but I don't care), to develop the habit of giving thanks and being grateful for anything I can think of as soon as I wake up in the morning. It has changed the way I start my day and improved my overall attitude, which is, as you have already alluded to, more important than any trading method/system.

I saw some of the Mark Douglas text in the thread here. One of my favorite passages is one of his regarding attitude:



Anyway, thanks for what you're doing here! Have a great weekend.

I'm glad you are finding it useful. Its always nice when some one takes time out of their day to compliment you on something you've done. By the way, nice blog you have going. I started one on blogspot and was simply to lazy to do that one and this one.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 PandaWarrior 
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kalalex View Post
Ooookay.

I thought you waited till the small bar at the 2nd arrow and placed stop just above the bar.
Also I think I found out what I'm doing wrong at the same time.
I guess I'm trying to be too exact.

Thank you for taking time to answer.

There is a time for precision and a time for just getting in. Figuring out which is which is the hard part.

I used to be a pull back trader only. Now I will take break outs as well. I find I like them more than I thought I would.

The exact price I got filled at was 82.31 if you care to check your charts.....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #972 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Was working in a neighbor's backyard doing some chores for them.....I have no idea how long I was passed out....just remember things going black and waking some some time later laying on the ground in full sun....Mid August, massive headache, no sweat on me at all, muscles severely contracted and stiff.....literally crawled on my belly to some shade under a tree and found a water hose there. Luckily it was close to the handle and I managed to get it on. Took a long time but finally got to where I could stand up and walk home. Don't remember much aboutt that afternoon....just the headache and the blackness that settled in right before I passed out.

Its a miracle you woke up. If you pass out, even if there is some one around who has training, you might not make it.
Cause you cant make someone unconsious drink water, and likely an IV isnt handy.

Headache and no sweat is from severe dehydration. Same with the muscle cramps.

That was truly a near death experience. If your core temp rises enough to cause you to pass out, slipping into coma and death is literallly only minutes away.

It can effect you for the rest of your life. Like getting frostbite. The same area will freeze way easier the next time around.

Its incredible you can tell the story.

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  #973 (permalink)
 tderrick 
Nashville, Tennessee
 
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VinceVirgil View Post
Its a miracle you woke up. If you pass out, even if there is some one around who has training, you might not make it.
Cause you cant make someone unconsious drink water, and likely an IV isnt handy.

Headache and no sweat is from severe dehydration. Same with the muscle cramps.

That was truly a near death experience. If your core temp rises enough to cause you to pass out, slipping into coma and death is literallly only minutes away.

It can effect you for the rest of your life. Like getting frostbite. The same area will freeze way easier the next time around.

Its incredible you can tell the story.


Good Lord, PW!! ...take it easy!! ... my rule for summers is mornings and evenings only when choring around the farm.... I'm glad you made it, you tough old bird


AJ
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  #974 (permalink)
 cory 
the coin hunter
virginia
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Was working in a neighbor's backyard doing some chores for them.....I have no idea how long I was passed out....just remember things going black and waking some some time later laying on the ground in full sun....Mid August, massive headache, no sweat on me at all, muscles severely contracted and stiff.....literally crawled on my belly to some shade under a tree and found a water hose there. Luckily it was close to the handle and I managed to get it on. Took a long time but finally got to where I could stand up and walk home. Don't remember much aboutt that afternoon....just the headache and the blackness that settled in right before I passed out.

same but different, I just had a near death experience with hypothermia last Friday, lesson learnt don't go into rough and cold water on an empty stomach, a little kid with a kick board saved my day.

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 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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tderrick View Post
Good Lord, PW!! ...take it easy!! ... my rule for summers is mornings and evenings only when choring around the farm.... I'm glad you made it, you tough old bird


It was 20+ years ago. I still get woozy in the high humidity and heat if I'm not careful....my new rule for summer is just stay inside...but its near impossible some days...Next year, San Diego or perhaps Portland or Seattle for the summer...or Stockholm....its gorgeous there in summer and one of my best friends lives near there.

Here's a brief moment of insanity for you.....i took this yesterday driving down the road with my cell phone.....


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #976 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Normally I'm not a fan of this kind of thing but this one struck a cord with me in relation to trading. Link first and the copy paste afterwards.

The Wisdom of Allowing Things to Happen :zenhabits


The Wisdom of Allowing Things to Happen

The Master allows things to happen.
She shapes events as they come.
She steps out of the way
and lets the Tao speak for itself.
~The Daodejing

Post written by Leo Babauta.

This has been what I’ve been learning over the past couple of years. Allowing things to happen.
It goes counter to our usual instincts in Western society — we are doers, creators of our destiny, we make things happen … we don’t wait for it to happen! That’s what I was taught from an early age, in school and by every motivational sports movie I ever watched. So allowing things to happen is not my normal way.
I have never been one to be passive, to let things happen instead of making them happen, to let go of control of things.

But here’s what I’ve been learning:

This control we think we have over our lives and our destinies … it’s an illusion. As the guy who had his life turned upside down by a heart attack, the woman who lost her father to death and had to drop everything, the family who lost their home to a hurricane, the entrepreneur that was doing well until the economy collapsed and no one was spending, the hard-working employee who was laid off when the economy tanked, the cyclist who was hit by a car, the car that skid because someone ran onto the road who had been obscured, the mom whose son has autism despite her doing everything right during pregnancy … it happens every day, where we think we’re in control but we’re really not. Do we control all the people around us who affect our lives so intimately? Do we control the overwhelming power of nature? There’s so much out of our control that what we think is control is really an illusion.

To control your cow, give it a bigger pasture. This is a great quote from Zen Master Suzuki Roshi, talking about controlling your mind. I see the cow and her pasture as a form of allowing things to happen — instead of tightly controlling something, you’re opening up, giving it more room, a bigger pasture. The cow will be happier, will roam around, will do as she pleases, and yet your needs will also be met. The same is true of anything else — stepping back and allowing things to happen means things will take care of themselves, and your needs will also be met. And you’ve done no work.

You have less stress, less to worry about. Imagine allowing things to happen naturally, and things work out, and all you did was smile and watch. You don’t have to worry about shaping things, about controlling something that doesn’t want to be controlled. You don’t have to push, and fix leaks, and put out fires. You just let things work on their own. They happen.

Things will surprise you. Let’s say you’re allowing something to happen. You might want it to go a certain way, to a certain outcome. That’s your goal. But what if you let go of this idea? What if you say, “I don’t know what will happen.” (Btw, you really don’t.) What if you say, “Let’s see what happens.” Then things will happen, but not the way you planned. The outcome might be completely different than what you’d hoped for. But it can still be great, just different. It might even be wonderful, and surprising. Surprises are good, if we accept that things always change and that change is good.

You learn how things work. Instead of trying to make things work the way you want them to work, just watch them work. You’ll learn much more about human nature, about the nature of the world, as you see things work without you controlling it. It might change you.

That’s all very good, Leo, you’re thinking. But that won’t put the food on my table.
Maybe you’re right. And so, don’t let me stop you from what you need to do. Carry on. I’ll just sit back and watch.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #977 (permalink)
 tderrick 
Nashville, Tennessee
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
It was 20+ years ago. I still get woozy in the high humidity and heat if I'm not careful....my new rule for summer is just stay inside...but its near impossible some days...Next year, San Diego or perhaps Portland or Seattle for the summer...or Stockholm....its gorgeous there in summer and one of my best friends lives near there.

Here's a brief moment of insanity for you.....i took this yesterday driving down the road with my cell phone.....




oops... I should have read the context of the original post ...

your still a tough old bird lol


AJ
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 tderrick 
Nashville, Tennessee
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
It was 20+ years ago. I still get woozy in the high humidity and heat if I'm not careful....my new rule for summer is just stay inside...but its near impossible some days...Next year, San Diego or perhaps Portland or Seattle for the summer...or Stockholm....its gorgeous there in summer and one of my best friends lives near there.

Here's a brief moment of insanity for you.....i took this yesterday driving down the road with my cell phone.....



Unbelievably, we aren't far behind you in Tennessee....close to 110 today !! What!!!


AJ
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 researcher247 
Chicago, IL
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Normally I'm not a fan of this kind of thing but this one struck a cord with me in relation to trading. Link first and the copy paste afterwards.

The Wisdom of Allowing Things to Happen :zenhabits


The Wisdom of Allowing Things to Happen

The Master allows things to happen.
She shapes events as they come.
She steps out of the way
and lets the Tao speak for itself.
~The Daodejing

Post written by Leo Babauta.

This has been what I’ve been learning over the past couple of years. Allowing things to happen.
It goes counter to our usual instincts in Western society — we are doers, creators of our destiny, we make things happen … we don’t wait for it to happen! That’s what I was taught from an early age, in school and by every motivational sports movie I ever watched. So allowing things to happen is not my normal way.
I have never been one to be passive, to let things happen instead of making them happen, to let go of control of things.

But here’s what I’ve been learning:

This control we think we have over our lives and our destinies … it’s an illusion. As the guy who had his life turned upside down by a heart attack, the woman who lost her father to death and had to drop everything, the family who lost their home to a hurricane, the entrepreneur that was doing well until the economy collapsed and no one was spending, the hard-working employee who was laid off when the economy tanked, the cyclist who was hit by a car, the car that skid because someone ran onto the road who had been obscured, the mom whose son has autism despite her doing everything right during pregnancy … it happens every day, where we think we’re in control but we’re really not. Do we control all the people around us who affect our lives so intimately? Do we control the overwhelming power of nature? There’s so much out of our control that what we think is control is really an illusion.

To control your cow, give it a bigger pasture. This is a great quote from Zen Master Suzuki Roshi, talking about controlling your mind. I see the cow and her pasture as a form of allowing things to happen — instead of tightly controlling something, you’re opening up, giving it more room, a bigger pasture. The cow will be happier, will roam around, will do as she pleases, and yet your needs will also be met. The same is true of anything else — stepping back and allowing things to happen means things will take care of themselves, and your needs will also be met. And you’ve done no work.

You have less stress, less to worry about. Imagine allowing things to happen naturally, and things work out, and all you did was smile and watch. You don’t have to worry about shaping things, about controlling something that doesn’t want to be controlled. You don’t have to push, and fix leaks, and put out fires. You just let things work on their own. They happen.

Things will surprise you. Let’s say you’re allowing something to happen. You might want it to go a certain way, to a certain outcome. That’s your goal. But what if you let go of this idea? What if you say, “I don’t know what will happen.” (Btw, you really don’t.) What if you say, “Let’s see what happens.” Then things will happen, but not the way you planned. The outcome might be completely different than what you’d hoped for. But it can still be great, just different. It might even be wonderful, and surprising. Surprises are good, if we accept that things always change and that change is good.

You learn how things work. Instead of trying to make things work the way you want them to work, just watch them work. You’ll learn much more about human nature, about the nature of the world, as you see things work without you controlling it. It might change you.

That’s all very good, Leo, you’re thinking. But that won’t put the food on my table.
Maybe you’re right. And so, don’t let me stop you from what you need to do. Carry on. I’ll just sit back and watch.

-----------------
Let's redirect to trading; shall we?

From NoDoji (on ET)...referencing someone else's post on ET...

"Here's a deep thought from an ET-er a while back, sums up the profitable trader's mindset perfectly, IMHO, one which I continually strive to attain:

"The conversion happens when you truly believe the future is unknowable. We have such a problem with that as a concept, as though we hate it with all our being.

Start thinking you know the outcome and you have already slipped.

That belief in chaos sets us free.

Without having to think we can act simply and quickly on probabilities, without all the drama."
--------------
Do that for 6-9 months, consistently. Honor that.

From then on live where you want, how you want and with whomever you want.

The world is not that big of a place.

Indeed.

peace

hedvig

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  #980 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
It was 20+ years ago. I still get woozy in the high humidity and heat if I'm not careful....my new rule for summer is just stay inside...but its near impossible some days...Next year, San Diego or perhaps Portland or Seattle for the summer...or Stockholm....its gorgeous there in summer and one of my best friends lives near there.

Here's a brief moment of insanity for you.....i took this yesterday driving down the road with my cell phone.....


Needless to say...That was the outside tempreature, right?

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 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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VinceVirgil View Post
Needless to say...That was the outside tempreature, right?

Of course....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #982 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Of course....

Sorry..I couldn't resist.

I have never been in heat like that except in a sauna. I find it hard to imagine what its like. Must sap the energy right out of you.

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  #983 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
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PandaWarrior View Post


So the entry was early, but you didn't enter where you drew the entry arrow? You entered where you drew the orange line, or rather when price closed above it? Because that price bar that has the arrow on it, from where you entered, didn't break the orange line.

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  #984 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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Upupandaway View Post
So the entry was early, but you didn't enter where you drew the entry arrow? You entered where you drew the orange line, or rather when price closed above it? Because that price bar that has the arrow on it, from where you entered, didn't break the orange line.

You making this to hard. I posted the exact price I got filled in an earlier post. Go to your charts and see where that was in relation to the bars. I entered EXACTLY above the bars I indicate on the chart with the arrow.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 Upupandaway 
Dallas/Tx
 
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I'm not making it to hard, I think if you will look carefully, that you arrows...the orange ones are pretty thick. So it was unclear which arrow. I dont know why you cant see that your orange arrow points to the bar that break out, of the trading range and not the bar with the little green arrow. That is unclear, that's why I asked you.

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  #986 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
Dallas/Tx
 
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Since you said you didn't enter the trade correctly yourself, I was not sure what you really did. Whether you went long on the "green arrow" or "that was the right bar" then you entered on the break out bar. Get it?

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 Upupandaway 
Dallas/Tx
 
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Ok what is unclear is you said " Correct trade break of the high". High of the candle with the green arrow? And if so, why that candle?

I zoomed in on your picture their. See how the orange candle is pointing out the "bar" that broke out of the range. It's not pointing to the bar with the green arrow, which I assume is your trigger bar. But if that is your trigger bar, why did you go long at the orange line? Why not buy at the close of the "bar with the green arrow". I'm just not sure where and why you where early, and why you where early in the first place.

In my thinking I see the green arrow, you said you went early. I think ok he went at the "close" of the green arrow. But then you said you waited till the orange line to take the trade, and I think "well he said he went early, but also said he waited till the orange line to take the trade". It cant be both.

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  #988 (permalink)
 Nicolas11 
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Hi @Upupandaway,

I may be wrong but I think that @PandaWarrior is referring to the high of the local trading range / flag, at the far left of the last chart you attached (the "inside bar"). In other words, the red level. But I may be wrong.

Anyway, may I kindly suggest that questions to PandaWarrior may be formulated in a gentle manner? I feel (just a personal feeling) that last posts were a bit aggressive, or at least, pushy.
I think that futures.io (formerly BMT) readers are very lucky to benefit from this kind of thread, where a real trader shares both the difficulties (and success) of his journey, as well as his trading ideas or methodology (to a certain extent). It shall remain a pleasure for PandaWarrior to come here.
Just a feeling...

Happy trading!

Nicolas

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  #989 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Upupandaway View Post
Ok what is unclear is you said " Correct trade break of the high". High of the candle with the green arrow? And if so, why that candle?

I zoomed in on your picture their. See how the orange candle is pointing out the "bar" that broke out of the range. It's not pointing to the bar with the green arrow, which I assume is your trigger bar. But if that is your trigger bar, why did you go long at the orange line? Why not buy at the close of the "bar with the green arrow". I'm just not sure where and why you where early, and why you where early in the first place.

In my thinking I see the green arrow, you said you went early. I think ok he went at the "close" of the green arrow. But then you said you waited till the orange line to take the trade, and I think "well he said he went early, but also said he waited till the orange line to take the trade". It cant be both.

I have no idea what "orange candle" you are referring to and candles don't point to bars. I just double checked my order log and it appears I made a mistake on in my post regarding the fill. I got filled at 33, not at 31 like I previously thought. Not sure why I said 31 earlier. 31 was the price i wanted so I remember it but ended up with some negative slippage.

Perhaps this enlarged pic will help.


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 chonpz 
seattle wa
 
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Very interesting...we seem to have a parallel journey....
One thing you said that intrigues me is
"During this process, I tried Viper Trading Systems (dont laugh, i learned some stuff from them) "
I my humble opinion i believe Viper trading systems core trading instinct are right on the money...
i dont understand why people are knocking them...i have been in the room for 5 months and these guys are quite accurate....their system is probably 70% accurate as is but with their experience behing it their
are more like 85%-90%... it took me a while to get use to them ..i had to unlearn a bunch of stuff.



PandaWarrior View Post
Today I want to present a snap shot of my journey with some bullet points detailing some difficulties, lessons learned and then finish it off with a freeze frame of where I am currently and a projection of the future in terms of actions I am taking and will take. Some of what I post here I have not discussed much if at all in my various threads. I figured the threads were about trading and not so much about the tiny details. But I want it here so I can remember it as time goes by and to perhaps give a narrative of what I consider to be a typical journey for a lot of traders.

My journey began about 2.5 years ago with a purchase of a trading room vendor DVD and a monthly trading room membership. This cost me $1000 +75 a month. I remained in the room for two months and then I left after the moderator chewed me out over what I considered a routine simple question. He was right about a lot of things though including the absolute insistence that simple is better. Its from him I learned my intense dislike for all things squiggly at the bottom of the chart. Therefore there has been no attempt from me to learn to use a MACD, RSI or Stoch. I've tried them but every time I compare them to price action alone, they always lag way to much. So no oscillators for me.

He had been a successful tech bubble entrepreneur and sold a tech company back in the day when tech was booming. He turned to trading so he didn't have to work so many hours and according to him, spent 5 years and nearly a million dollars of his own money losing using various methods. He said he learned to hate oscillators as a result of getting in trades based on what they were saying and finding out they were way late. He said he became successful when he dumped everything but three moving averages and learned how to use multiple time frames. At the time I met him, he was trading 50-150 lots on ES and scalping for 4-12 ticks at a time. I know this sounds odd but I actually met the guy. Turns out he lived in my small home town for a long time, then moved to a larger city to develop his tech company and his parents still live in my city and he comes in once in a while to visit.

I then went on the Holy Grail hunt for the perfect indicator and risk elimination method. During this process, I tried Viper Trading Systems (dont laugh, i learned some stuff from them) I tried Channel-trading.com with Kevin Hudson. I really liked that guy but I understand he's disappeared at this point. Kevin spent a lot of time with me at no extra cost and he's also the one that directed me to futures.io (formerly BMT) for the free MP indicator for NT 6.5. Like me or hate me, blame Kevin Hudson. He traded MP in a way that seemed 100% counter trend. I could see a short trend setting up on my non MP charts and he wouldn't trade it short. Instead he'd wait til price got to 1-2x IB and go long. And then most of the time, price just stalled. This was trading ES during the few months in 2010 that ES left its volatility behind. I even tried those guys over at Back To The Future trading. I liked those guys as well and they proved to me that indicator based trading could work because they really did trade totally mechanically based on the indicators they used. I can't remember why I left them but it seems like they kept wanting more money or something...could be wrong about that though.

I figured I needed to trade trend at that point and moved on. Attended lots of free webinars and workshops. Read tons of threads on futures.io (formerly BMT) looking for something that spoke to me. Nothing really did. So I decided to create my own.

This creation of something uniquely mine has occupied my time the last year or so. Along the way, I've struggled with creating repeatable entries, exits and money management. I'd get some clarity on one and feel real excited about things and then find I was ignoring the other two. I'd switch focus to another one of the issues, get some traction and then find I needed attention on the last one. None of it seemed to gel at the same time. All along I knew I was making progress, I was just extremely frustrated with the 2 steps forward, three steps back shuffle.

Every time I would make progress, it seemed like a layer of complexity would be added to my thinking and one thing I knew was, I wanted simplicity. And so it would be back to the drawing board in an attempt to coalesce new knowledge into something I could do repeatably and then simplify it.

During this process my account history is as follows....all these ran concurrently with the discussion above. I don't remember exact times but the narrative is enough.

Account starts small but enough. I trade sim for two months just to get used to the mechanics and pretend I know what I am doing.

Start live trading. Account shrinks by about 1/3

Go back to sim. Get more comfortable.

Live again. Shrinks to about half. back to sim and thus begins holy grail hunt...

Trade live with Viper Trading auto traders. 50/50 success rate. Can't tolerate drawdowns. back to sim

Try various trade rooms. Account reduced to about 25%

Start to think its more about me than the method...back to sim to figure me out.

I think I have it, refund account, trade live. More shrinkage. Hunt for method with tiny stops...death by a thousand cuts.

I find TopStepTrader. Give that a try. I had no idea the level of discipline required to trade under those kinds of guidelines. It was absolutely excruciating. Took their combine three times in a row. No luck. Could not trade with the level of discipline they demanded.

Back to my own account. This time with the discipline drilled into me by TST. Still stuggling with exits and money management but now I at least know I need these more than entries.

Alternate between live and sim working on these issues. Start to see some level of success. Mostly break even.

Give TST a try again. My account is still pretty small even with the refunding process I went through and so TST looks good. Took a couple of tries but went live with TST. Traded live with them for awhile. Can't remember how long but blew that account out. Could not maintain discipline. They felt I need some more time to work on certain issues.

Back to alternating between my live and sim accounts working on the things TST said to work on.

Tried again. Went live again with TST. Again, had trouble with exits. Just could not figure out when and where to take profit. Scratched a lot of trades and slowly drew down the account. Learned more about risk control. Started to get it in terms of how to use stops and where they should go.

Back to my account and sim. Tried lots of different ideas in a fairly short period of time looking for ways to use real stops but minimize their size. Gave that up and just decided the right thing was to put them where they belonged and just live with it. Mostly break even both live and sim. Odd how my sim trading mirrored my live trading or is it vice versa?

Back to TST. Went live once again. This time kept the account for quite a while. Slightly better than break even over time. However, TST is not in the business of backing BE traders and so for a third time, a live account is gone.

This time I decide I need to once and for all figure out the mental aspect of the game before I risked another live dollar either with TST or my own money. This is where I am currently.

During this time, I switched instruments several times. I started with ES, then NQ, TF, ZB, 6E and now CL. Combine instrument changes with chart changes and you can see why its taken me so dang long to make something out of this wonderful opportunity.

Now the last two weeks have been sim and have been done with the express purpose of solidifying three things I think I finally got to come together three weeks ago in a brief moment of clarity. Those three things were: Simple entry rules that did not demand intense intellectual gymnastics to figure out, Simple and repeatable exits but with the caveat the exits MUST be dynamic with market conditions and third, rock solid money management for both initial size, daily stops and subsequent sizing increases once profits are the norm and not the exception.

The first item, Simple entry rules was something I had been thinking about for a long time. I went to the simplest entry method I had used and decided I wanted to make it visual. It needed two things, momentum on its side as well as sound price action structure. I found I just didn't have the chops to do the kind of work that @Private Banker or @GaryD or some of the other analysis heavy ideas required. I found it in something @TMFT uses. Its just EMAs but it helps me visualize price in a way I've never done before. It has two things going for that I value, momentum and structure and then a third very important component for me, visuals for both. Further, filtering trades was easy and each entry had to have certain characteristics. Otherwise no trades. I experimented with some of these over the last two weeks and have determined for the most part which ones to take and which ones to leave alone. Nothings perfect but at least its repeatable.

The next item, exits came about 3 months ago when a friend told me about a forex trader that used a certain type of fib based exit but I had trouble working the method into my trading in a simple, repeatable manner. It took me a bit longer than I thought to figure this part out but since I am a scalper and like to be out on whatever swing I am trading, I needed something that would maximize the swing while not being to greedy. I wanted to leave some but not to much on the table. Further it needed to be dynamic with market conditions and it needed to be 100% repeatable with no grey area. Lastly, it needed something approaching reasonable risk/reward ratio of at least 1:1.

I finally got this dialed in when I watched a video by Todd Mitchel as he talked about his exits. What he did made perfect sense to me, fit my personality style and was mathematically sound and repeatable. Basically its a 2 stage exit. 1X risk and 200x risk. I use it slightly different than he does but thats ok, it works for me and best of all, its dead simple. It produces an over all 1.5X risk if both exits are hit. The trail stop was something I worked on last week and while nothings perfect, I've decided to do this. Stop is moved to BE once first target is hit. Once price is within 75-80% of 2nd target, move stop to 1st target. At that point, worse case is AIAO at first target. I'm sure this will not be totally optimum but for now, this is what I've decided to do.

The last item, money management which has two parts for me, daily stop loss and its derivative, per trade position sizing came AFTER the first two items above became available. I simply took what I was willing to risk daily, divided by 4 and calculated position size on a per trade basis based on the result of that simple division problem and the size of the risk. I then created a simple grid of risk in ticks, plotted the resulting size next to it and viola, money management. I further refined it by deciding when to increase my daily stop which will in turn allow me to increase the number of lots per line item in my risk grid by a factor of two since every trade has two positions, all lot increases must be able to be increased by two as well to make my exits even....i suppose I don't need even exits but it seemed logical at the time.

So emotionally I now feel better about the three critical areas of trading. Entry, exit and MM. The last area I am struggling with is one I think I will always struggle with. Allowing the trade to fully develop and giving it time to mature to the second exit. I've done some work on all in all out at 1X risk and while its fine in terms of dollars, a two stage exit at 1X and 2X risk is better in terms of overall PnL. Of course that assumes you hold to that second exit. Otherwise its just better to be AIAO at 1X risk and hope for decent win ratio.

Here is my plan for the near future.

As the last couple of weeks have been sim working out the finer points of what I have just outlined, this next week will be a crucial forward test of both me and the method to produce consistent profits taking only system trades and then holding for system targets. Using position sizing on each trade to manage risk.

If this week goes well, then I intend to re-qualify for TST the following week. They have a great program for those of us with smaller accounts but big dreams. Further, it appears they have implemented several trader coaching programs to help traders with the mental aspect of the game. Dr. Menaker does a regular spot on Friday and there are other regular contributors to the traders development. The one thing they didn't do then nor does it appear they do now is teach you to trade. You need to learn that yourself. The mental aspect of the game they do focus a lot of attention on and I plan to take advantage of that as much as I can.

Now I know I am gonna take some heat over various aspects of this trading plan. But I don't really care. This is for me and me alone. This thread is a place for me to document my journey and its been invaluable for this purpose.

My monetary needs can be met with 3 lots and 20 ticks a day net over time. That's within my safe zone for plausibility given my current skill set and emotional stage. However, my desire is to attempt to triple that each day to allow for loser/scratch days and for days I don't want to or can't trade. This works out to around $1800 as a theoretical target each day. My risk management grid says that's possible on 1-2 trades depending on risk of course. So we'll see going forward. As the Marines say, "All plans get shot to hell once the bullets start flying. You'd better be able to adapt and advance".

Lastly, since the mechanics are more or less set, I've decided to focus most of my time on the mental and emotional aspects of life and of trading. To this end, I've begun a daily habit of a brief time of meditation, reading a brief inspirational story or passage from my Bible, I began the gratitude project two days ago and I am reading this book Amazon.com: The HeartMath Solution: The Institute of HeartMath's Revolutionary Program for Engaging the Power of the Heart's Intelligence (9780062516060): Doc Lew Childre, Howard Martin, Donna Beech: Books and it looks like it might be invaluable in helping me with my holding trade problem as well as other areas of stress reduction.

Over all, I'm really excited about the future again. Many things that have been eluding me seem to have come into focus. I have a level of confidence I've not felt since I could quote the FNMA underwriting guideline from memory!

Attached are two charts. The one on the left is my final chart. Its from @TMFT. Next to it is a naked chart I keep up. I have the levels marked on it along with my entries the trading chart gave for Friday. You can see the levels are respected, they are in line with both break outs and pull backs based on momentum. I've found over the last two weeks this holds true. I've also done about a year of visual back testing. Nothings perfect of course but that was pretty labor intensive and it produced enough consistency to warrant further forward testing.

As a trend follower, the old adage that you take the middle third out of the trend applies here. This method has the same inherent flaws any moving average method does. Its especially vulnerable on very narrow range days. On days like that, I've given myself permission to size the chart down to a time frame low enough to produce a trend. The targets will shrink as my profit projection method is dynamic. This is in line with the idea that you take what the market is giving, not what you are demanding the market give. The good thing about CL is that most of the time, it moves enough in one direction to give you decent opportunities to profit. Its a rare day price goes only sideways.

Well thats it for tonight. Its 11:30, I'm tired and tomorrow no charts or anything trading related.

Feel free to ask questions or make comments but nothing personally negative. I've decided to just block anyone that's negative from posting in my thread from now on. To be fair, that's only happened a couple of times but for some reason, I get the feeling there may be some negative blow back on this post.....not sure why....



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  #991 (permalink)
 Upupandaway 
Dallas/Tx
 
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Yah if this has sounded aggressive, that was not my intent. Right I didn't mean the "orange candle" I re read that too. Meant "orange arrow" Never mind...not harm meant...it's cool...np.

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  #992 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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Every day that goes by, I believe more and more that simplicity is the key....both in life and in trading.

Trade who you are the way you are, in the way you know you can. Don't let outsiders influence to be something you're not. Stay true to yourself. If you must change, and we must to grow, then change slowly and with purpose, toward a measurable goal. Change is hard, don't make it more difficult by changing into something you don't believe in.

Next three days off and start again on Monday.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #993 (permalink)
 GridKing 
San Diego, CA USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Careful out there ...


US record heatwave leaves dozens dead

BBC News - US record heatwave leaves dozens dead

"Successful trading is one long journey, not a destination" Peter Borish Former Head of Research for Paul Tudor Jones speaking on conversations with John F. Carter
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  #994 (permalink)
 tderrick 
Nashville, Tennessee
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja / Jigsaw / 9G
Broker: AMP / CQG
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GridKing View Post
Careful out there ...


US record heatwave leaves dozens dead

BBC News - US record heatwave leaves dozens dead


I've pretty much just given up on chores this summer ..

The farm certainly looks like it ! lol


Hope all is well, PW


AJ
Nashville, Tennessee


"Life On The Edge of SR"
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  #995 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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Threw my back out on sunday evening picking up my kid. barely made it out of bed yesterday. Can only sit up right today for a few minutes. I feel a lot better than I did yesterday but its tough. Tomorrow I start some basic exercises to strengthen my back and core muscles.....back to trading perhaps tomorrow or thursday....see how it goes.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #996 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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Been there man, feel better soon. Hope you have some good pain meds.

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