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The PandaWarrior Chronicles
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The PandaWarrior Chronicles

  #91 (permalink)
Elite Member
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PandaWarrior View Post
Well I could have done a better job of using this metaphor. What I meant is that while I've been trading live for quite a while now, due to the lack of a real plan, I was treating my trading more as a hobby than a real business. However, if you would have asked me if it was a real business, I would have said yes not realizing how wrong I was. This would be coming from someone that has owned several successful businesses over the years.

A real business has products or services with a plan on how to produce or market those goods and services. It has metrics, goals, accounting procedures, a sales methodology, etc..... I had none of these. Now I do. It feels good. This is why I used the term, "I'll be open for real on Monday".

As we all know, success is a journey, not a destination.

da da da da, PW Grand Opening on Monday! Read all about it... Interesting insight. I enjoy your journey as I think we are on similar paths. Congratulations and will enjoy continued reading of your success.

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  #92 (permalink)
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PandaWarrior View Post
I use @Fattail's volatility bands indicator for the range. It has a setting to allow you to see the current day's range along with your choice of historical range. I have mine set to 3 and ten.

I am using the current Globex range to determine the initial range. As it opens up during the day, the indy keeps up with that of course. If it opens up a lot, I'll adjust my targets, if not, I'll just keep them the same as what the overnight session dictates. As time goes on, I'll measure the effectiveness of this and revise as needed.

I have noticed the current day most of the time approximates the most recent 3 days average range, so I am comfortable not worrying that I might miss out by somehow misjudging the range for the day. Occasionally you get a wild day or a super narrow range that throws off the average but in general, its pretty accurate.

Thanks. I'd never thought of this method of determining targets before. Have you tested this method to see how effective it is?

It could be that price swings tend to remain within a certain percentage of the daily range, and that you'd be unnecessarily greedy to expect more. It could also be, however, that price swings tend to be a higher percentage of the daily range on narrow range days than on wide range days, in which case your targets could be unnecessarily small on the narrow range days. An empirical question of course so I don't know which is more accurate, but it's the kind of thing that could be studied.

-----------------------------------------------------

"If you must forecast, forecast often."

-- Edgar Fiedler
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  #93 (permalink)
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worldwary View Post
Thanks. I'd never thought of this method of determining targets before. Have you tested this method to see how effective it is?

It could be that price swings tend to remain within a certain percentage of the daily range, and that you'd be unnecessarily greedy to expect more. It could also be, however, that price swings tend to be a higher percentage of the daily range on narrow range days than on wide range days, in which case your targets could be unnecessarily small on the narrow range days. An empirical question of course so I don't know which is more accurate, but it's the kind of thing that could be studied.

I've added a column in my trade tracker to measure this. I'll probably do some sort of analysis in thirty days or so. Someone remind me and I'll try to post my results and thoughts on this.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #94 (permalink)
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My new hedge fund is profitable

Well just barely but enough. Today was not a good day for my method, but I managed to stay green. 10 trades, net of 10 ticks. Not great but most days like this I would have been deep in the red. Staying with my signals and holding for a reasonable target based on ADR on the trades that worked kept me green.

I made one mistake. I took a perfect signal, but price failed to break the high of the previous 5 min candle which is what I use for filtering and so I took off the trade at -2. This turned out to be a good trade, price went to exactly my target and reversed down from there.

Other than that, even though it was not a hugely profitable day, I am pleased with my discipline and patience on a day that tested both.

Cheers.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #95 (permalink)
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Broken rules = broken trading account

Today's the first day in a while that I really broke my rules. Truthfully, the rule breaks were due to greed/fear of being left behind. last couple of days has seen very few of my normal set ups and there have been lots of failures in the ones that have shown up. Consequently, was feeling left behind, so instead of being patient, I broke my rules and paid for it. Three times.

So after yesterday's minor victory over impatience, I lose a major battle today with the same beast.

Its been a struggle to get to the place where I really recognize my failures. Now that I do, I must really focus on overcoming them. Trading requires tremendous mental discipline and while I am getting better, its days like today that show me I have a long way to go.

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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #96 (permalink)
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Just a mental way to twist things. Here goes:

1. You do not have this habit, the old you did this occasionally but you do not own it.

2. You are a very patient person and you always wait for the right setups.

3. You trade very well every single day due to your patience and clarity.

Feel it, breath it, be it.

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  #97 (permalink)
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PandaWarrior View Post
Today's the first day in a while that I really broke my rules. Truthfully, the rule breaks were due to greed/fear of being left behind. last couple of days has seen very few of my normal set ups and there have been lots of failures in the ones that have shown up. Consequently, was feeling left behind, so instead of being patient, I broke my rules and paid for it. Three times.

So after yesterday's minor victory over impatience, I lose a major battle today with the same beast.

Its been a struggle to get to the place where I really recognize my failures. Now that I do, I must really focus on overcoming them. Trading requires tremendous mental discipline and while I am getting better, its days like today that show me I have a long way to go.

After the recent wild market action, I have found the last few days very difficult to trade. Its easy to make money when the market was moving like it did last week. I just started testing an autotrader at that time, and it was making $3k a day all that week on 1 CL contract , yesterday and today, it is barely breaking even. But, I knew that going in, that last week was not the type of market the method was designed for, so I knew not to fully trust the results. You may be experiencing the same situation. We should be carefull not to base our performance on non-standard market behavior.

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  #98 (permalink)
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monpere View Post
After the recent wild market action, I have found the last few days very difficult to trade. You may be experiencing the same situation. Its easy to make money when the market was moving like it did last week. I just started testing an autotrader at that time, and it was making $3k a day all that week on 1 CL contract , yesterday and today, it is barely breaking even. We should be carefull not to base our assumptions on non-standard market behavior.

I agree, but a Master Trader doesn't have this excuse. He either sits out or he trades well even during these conditions as he recognizes it. Like you said, maybe since things are different then he can adjust accordingly. I guess that is all part of being a MASTER.

The key is to recognize the change and adapt the brain accordingly in my opinion. Easier said than done but I do have faith in it being possible. Just my own perspective.

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  #99 (permalink)
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monpere View Post
After the recent wild market action, I have found the last few days very difficult to trade. Its easy to make money when the market was moving like it did last week. I just started testing an autotrader at that time, and it was making $3k a day all that week on 1 CL contract , yesterday and today, it is barely breaking even. But, I knew that going in, that last week was not the type of market the method was designed for, so I knew not to fully trust the results. You may be experiencing the same situation. We should be carefull not to base our performance on non-standard market behavior.

I have talked to several traders via text and skype the last couple of days and they are all struggling. At least the oil traders I know are. I don't know about the other markets as I don't watch them nor do I really follow anyone that does. But I have been watching 6E and other than a nice run yesterday, it seems pretty choppy.

Anyway, I agree that the trader is the best weapon. If his/her mind is right, the need to trade at any cost will not be part of the equation. Currently, I feel like I need to trade every day. And even today, there were a few marginal set ups that I have as part of my trading plan but for some reason, was unwilling to exercise my option to trade those patterns. I left money on the table as a result and then I allowed the novice trader to over ride the intermediate trader and take trades that were in reality....just plain stupid.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #100 (permalink)
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PandaWarrior View Post
I have talked to several traders via text and skype the last couple of days and they are all struggling. At least the oil traders I know are. I don't know about the other markets as I don't watch them nor do I really follow anyone that does. But I have been watching 6E and other than a nice run yesterday, it seems pretty choppy.

Anyway, I agree that the trader is the best weapon. If his/her mind is right, the need to trade at any cost will not be part of the equation. Currently, I feel like I need to trade every day. And even today, there were a few marginal set ups that I have as part of my trading plan but for some reason, was unwilling to exercise my option to trade those patterns. I left money on the table as a result and then I allowed the novice trader to over ride the intermediate trader and take trades that were in reality....just plain stupid.

Well, I noticed a distinct difference these last two days also. No doubt....

It has been a choppy mess of big retracements and then continuations. However, because of that I have been doing my best to wait wait wait, but it is the challenge when you are a fledgling trader (me not you).

I agree, conditions are probably not the best.


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