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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
I have a friend who has been trading for more than 15 years. He is trading full time now. I have a dilemma. He is opening up an account for close friends. Basically, he'll trade for a 30% share profit. Good deal? I don't know. From an investor point of view, may be a good deal, but from a trader's point, it is not something I want.
Wishing you the best. Really enjoy reading your journal. Trade well.
Enough. I am exhausted. If it were earlier in the day I probably would have kept scaling in, but decided to take one off at breakeven instead.
But, I should have added. It never did break that local doubletop If that was my "trade", it only got better the hotter it got.
But I got up at 2:30am this morning to watch the London session, traded the guppy, then started stalking a trade in NY after the news pre-open. I did not take a single CL trade today as I had a different agenda this morning.
After the market closed, I played disc golf (bought 4 more), went out with Melissa to Total Wine, then stil no shower today, am back at the computer, critiquing my trading. I traded on a time based chart, but left the entries and exits up and switched to a 4 renko to see where I could have done better.
Here's what I see:
1) Pick my spots as usual, but Enter on the first red bar that Closes
2) Scale off risk only at a reversal colr bar, but start adding the number to scale off at certain distance increments.
3) Allow runners to withstand x number of reversal bars. Today I held that one juts because I wanted it to look pretty, and that carry through wave B was something I have never done before today.
4) Take my add-ons off as if they were scale outs, exitting at one reversal bar (or some rule like that), then rescaling in, letting the action determine. (that is the toughest for me today to feel good about)
I heard something this morning that was great trade advice, but as I listened and digested it , that alone made me feel a bit queasy. It was very eye-opening to me to have been able to detect that as the thought was digested. While I have treated trading as working a full time job while taking two semesters of classes in one... always having this thought in the back corner of my mind that, what I was chasing did not exist....
And then slowly understanding why , it does exist. yet even in that space, it feel uncomfortable. but I am getting so zen with the understanding that trading correctly feels uncomfortable, that I can relax into things beyond anything I ever have done before. So today, I celebrated. Not with beer, with my dogs, and in the garden where I now have 12 corn plants, a tomato vines that is on steroids, some sunflowers for the neighbors kids... with Melissa where we drove and talked about college days and listened to Lenny Kravitz and Red Hot Chili Peppers... and I played guitar for a living. Artistic, deep thinking, emotional, eccentric, ballsy, maybe a bit obnoxious when I have been overserved... But just doing what felt good. Trading is becoming that same place for me.
It had been a long time since I posted any analysis. I do not do it that often anymore, but I still do occasionally, and this is something I have been watching in TF.
TF has some other things going for the top being around 1192. NPOC being the most obvious.
A W5 is a great risk to reward type trade as the entry and exit areas are very well defined in advance. I could calculate the RR now, roughly. Unfortunately, that has nothing to do with probability.
CL has a different structure with this move down. Both markets are at interesting, but possibly conflicting / de-coupling, places on a higher time view. IF CL holds this is one of those once-a-year or so areas. Again, probability is not great, but it is a place to watch.
This TPO chart supports that at least some traders were buying into the C leg. Notice that in today's double distribution, the single print was violated in K period. No one was going to hold that trade short into the close. Wheter C holds in CL or not ( failed in equities), just not a smart move.
It left that incomplete low, which I was prepared to buy the hell out of if it ever developed a buying tail, but that may have been a great play.
I did buy into it the first time, but got off the bus at the first line of anything I would call resistance, waiting to reenter and never got anything clear enough to do so. I pushed long into the pit close, but only added maybe 10% to my day's net on that trade, and my first attempt at same caused the entire cycle to be maybe negative $100 from where I was before. I had an alert at the intraday low for a buy possibility, and it never hit. There was a minor 786 of the LOD that I considered, but I still am not any good at slow price action. maybe next year.
This was my focused trade du jour. What I used to call freight training I now call a #4 scalpel. They don't ring a bell at the top. (or bottom) But they do show delta divergence. That all by itself will get a trader killed, but applied correctly is just as good as anything else out there.
Entries and exits below. I tried to buy it once earlier in the move, but had to drop it. Then screwed around into the close. Just did not get anything strong enough to ride wave C into the close with a good entry. The 786 was near perfect, but seemed too "easy"? It is NEVER easy, so I passed. LOL! (6 renko chart for something different, color may vary)
