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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
Wow, only running at 58% in Denver, but PF at 1.7, net 162 since I got here. I am dropping trades way too early, and trading scared. Relying on unknown internet connections is a big part of it. If I even see data lag, I am out, which makes sense to me, but is tough on the numbers. I called my broker 4x this week to make sure I was where I thought I was. A downside of traveling.
The Performance Report shows I have been favoring the short side, in an arguably uptrend market on most lower timeframes. Nearly 2 to 1 short vs long trades. And 10x the profit on that side. 2.2PF short, 1.14PF long
Well like most things in life, there is not a clear black/white line. What I meant by my post was "in general". In other words, if we can make some assumptions, people posting on futures.io (formerly BMT) and trading are probably not living in poverty. They are probably more educated than average.
Let's just say they make 75,000 a year at their "day job" on average. They work 60 hour weeks, aren't crazy about their job. They have a wife and 2 kids.
It is my opinion that taking this persons income from 75k to 150k isn't going to make them happier. They will buy fancier cars, a bigger house, spend more money going out and on entertainment, buy a new plasma tv, some new toys, a new set of golf clubs, buy a new boat, whatever... all of those things provide brief moments of happiness, but overall for the long haul will likely not solve any underlying problem if you are already unhappy to begin with.
It is very difficult to explain. I can still very clearly remember how I felt in my day job prior to me quitting and turning to trading full time. I would not have classified myself as unhappy. I had all kinds of toys, big house, cars, bought whatever I wanted, etc. But it turns out, I was not happy. It was not due to lack of money. Thus, money does not buy happiness.
I only was able to reach that conclusion after I had made some major life changes, which happened as I was trying to make trading for a living work. I had been trading for 15 years but never as my sole source of income. It took some major changes, which I talked about in-depth in the 3 hour webinar "An afternoon with Big Mike".
It was only because I am able to look back and compare my happiness both before and after that event that I am able to say I was definitely not happy before the change. But like I said, if you had asked me at that time, I would have answered "yes, I am happy" simply because I did not have proper context to compare to.
Since that time, another saying that I've said many times and that I believe is true is that you can go away from North America and visit other places, lets say the Caribbean since it is a favorite of mine. You will meet people who have virtually nothing compared to the spoiled Americans. Virtually no money, no "toys". They live very simply. And without a doubt, they are much more happy people than the average American.
Toys, gizmos, possessions, and money do not make happiness. So I will add a qualifier, which is that obviously a certain amount of money in order to buy you food, shelter, medical care, and to make sure you are not living in poverty is required.
The upper end was tested and failed this morning around 9:45am. I did not catch that trade as the approach looked as if it would breakout.
I quit early today, was down -32 ticks, was just not feeling it today. No big hits, down due to indecision mostly, some of the losses would have been winners had I stayed in, but I could not really feel a reason to commit either way today.
Weakness, in hindsight, to have gotten out just "because", or to have taken the trade to begin with, not sure. Not a big deal though. First loss in a few weeks, actually expect a down day after a good string, and try to just allow it to be. It would be nice if it were possible to not have them...
Crude has established an intermediate trendlline, currently roughly 92.90. Not seeing strength or weakness, just more indecision and confusion.
Sometimes crude seems easy to read. Not right now, for me. I wind up with lines everywhere ( as the chart above) and no opinion on direction. I am starting over tonight from a daily down to try and clear my view some.
OK, crude is struggling with the 50%, which is not a fib I watch much, unless it has confluence. In this case, it has the following;
1) 50% major at 95.00
2) Major low pivot at 95.14
3) 127 of prior major wave down at 94.96
The local double bottom at 86.85 halted what appeared was an ABC prepared to continue lower, and now has created a base suggesting upside, but at the confluence zone is finding pressure in both directions, thus winding into a symmetrical triangle.
