And there was me groaning the other day to you about the pathetic gale force winds in London :-D

Yesterday I made about $1400.00. On max 2 contracts. You would think that would make me happy. Maybe my mind is twisted and I should be happy and quit thinking about it. But I look back and feel like I traded like a pussy.

There are only really a few places where my experience says the odds are really heavily weighted in my favor. The completion of a five wave move, with such near perfect geometry,on a daily chart...if that does not catch the attention of the majority of educated traders nothing will. That did not mean anything had changed to cause price to go up fundamentally, but psychologically, absolutely.

I felt the BEST odds were for AT LEAST a range bound day, and so set my target for the prior high range. And then, being a Friday, having drilled into my mind that I should treat it differently, I went in with 2 contracts, hit it another time with 1, both for relatively tiny moves. And then backed off. Instead of "pressing when I am right", I pull back to remain "right". Having an ending balance higher at the end of the day is "success" in some ways.

But, in a situation like yesterday, which only comes every so often, the posibilty for a extended move is also there. You may recall the time I went max down and commented I was going for $12,000 on 6 contracts. The next setup I got, it did move the $2 up. yesterday's move, $2 up. And I grabbed a few pennies out of it.

So what happens, is I can be profitable and still feel like a loser. I know that may sound like "boo hoo, poor me", but it is the pursuit of excellence, or at least the pursuit of improvement, and I am functioning at a frustrating level of effectiveness.

I know the crude oil market as well as probably most traders. This week, @greenr asked where I thought crude was going. I had two zones, about a dollar apart. CL made a significant and tradeable pause at the first, and when it broke below it had nothing to stop it but the second. Freefall. I KNEW that, but did I catch that move? No. I never, almost never, hold a trade for it's intended target. I got a few coins, yes. Bravo. Loser.

And on the few times I do hold my ground and go for a major target, I get mixed results that cause me to go back to taking 30-40 ticks, because I know those moves are infinitely re-creatable and make trading feel more like a high probability event instead of a lottery ticket.

I know it has to do with the lack of confidence I have developed, but that does not seem to change my bevahior. So I am considering a technical rule. I have read so many; trailing 3 bar high/low, ATR, standard deviation, but have never backtested any of them that prove better than the other. What I do know, is I can spot a turn pretty well, eerily well some days. I have even practiced intentionally trading against the trend. Key inflection points combined with volume give 20-30 tick bursts. But, I would prefer to expand my view to 100-300 tick moves.

In summary, I settle for scraps, like the remora, and don't dare attempt the real meal. I can make money and feel horrible, because I don't see the dollars as much as I see the psychological weakness. I see that the person I used to be may be gone. It's almost like this is not about trading, but a proving ground to find the person I once was. A place to be myself again. To be the eternal optimist again, to believe in unlimited opportunity.

I read about traders like Tom Baldwin and Mark Cook (whose record I have read may be in question? That would be sad, because he is a personal favorite), who claim to not desire to go for the longer moves, and yet they are thought of as some of the best traders in the world. And I think to myself, maybe that is the way to go, stop questioning it, stop looking at what I missed. If it were not for the fact that choosing that path feels more like accepting my fear and limiting my potential than it feels like I believe in myself. It does not matter how other traders trade, what matters is that I lack confidence.

Trading with anything resembling "size" would feel so much calmer if the target were 200 ticks and the stop 25 ticks. And I do enter those trades with decent regularity.

As I type this it occurs to me that to me, becoming a truly succesful trader is not just about making money. It is about feeling good, having confidence, not allowing the market noise to talk me into second guessing myself. If I see a pattern set up, and don't see anything that would stop it, I should just let myself be right. But I don't. I see when the most likely distance is reached, based on my backtesting, and then start to feel like I am pressing my luck by not getting out. Is that the right thing?

I have found that going to the gym and seeing the slow build of strength is helping me with a physical representation of the process. It requires repetition, pushing myself, not stopping just because I am tired or don't feel like it. Maybe the tick size of my targets is no different than the numbers on the sides of the weights. I want to go from curling 35 pounds to 70 pounds, tomorrow. But the reality is, I may never curl 70 pounds. If that is really what I want, yes, it is possible. But it is going to require a lot more work from where I am today. Is it worth it? Is the goal to be as big and strong as I can, or just to be "healthy"? If one person chooses one and someone else the other, are either right or wrong?

There is no correct answer that applies universally, other than, did that person accomplish what they desired?

The $250 that was won in the trading journal contest sat in an Amazon account until recently. Yesterday I received my first reward out of it, a copy of The Disciplined Trader, by Mark Douglass. I am growing tired of trading books, have a library already, and had looked at this one online more than once in the past and then not bought it. But a couple weeks ago I found a recording of a seminar he did, and thought that what he was suggesting was more what I need now. Not a technical education, but a psychological education. Sure I could always learn more technically, but when I weigh myself as a trader I am still very light on the psychological side. Maybe not in writing, but in practice. That part of me suffered significant damage, and unless I make it a very concentrated focus, I will not rebuild.

Confidence that comes naturally is different than confidence that comes back after failure. The former is easy, the latter hard earned. Very hard.

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@GaryD asked me about 'exits' in an email.



It is my belief (I could be wrong) that Gary is trading like a pussy (intraday) @great risk:reward levels because he is focused on being right for that big move that is paralyzing him in the moment~frozen if you will.



hedvig

Possible force on oil futures

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It is my belief (I could be wrong) that Gary is trading like a pussy (intraday) @great risk:reward levels because he is focused on being right for that big move that is paralyzing him in the moment~frozen if you will.