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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets


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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

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  #941 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
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GaryD View Post
How long had Soros traded when he made that statement? Did Soros trade based on fundamantals, technicals, or both? Did he make his decisions alone or in coperation with the advice of others? Did he rely on indicators, economic factors, pertinent information, historical patterns? Was Soros a subscriber to the ACD method?

Risk is a personal factor. No one can say where that is for anyone other than themselves. My trading beliefs include far too much risk for some, but fits my comfort level. Bigger risk can equal greater rewards, but risk should always be thought of with a capital R, as it deserves respect. I hope your method gives you what you are seeking.

I looked at the ACD method this weekend. There are as many ways to trade as there are traders. We could be on opposite sides and both make money.

I am working on a presentation on a view of risk that may not be apparent to some traders. It may be awhile before I have it done, it's fairly time consuming to be able to show what I am hoping to effectively. But I believe it will change how some traders think of risk going forward. It will not be a recommendation, but rather a tool for individual assessment and a mathematical display of possibly less considered factors. Maybe in the next few weeks. I am doing it at night and on Sunday mornings.


Thanks Gary, look forward towards your Risk assessment tool.

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  #942 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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Just testing another computer for dual screen image.

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  #943 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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My financial idols used to be from the world of real estate. My favorite was not the best known, like Donald Trump, or Sam Zell, or Trammel Crow, but a guy named William Sanders (long story).

When I first came into trading, I initially read about the guys I thought were the best, based on the fact they were known by traders and non-traders alike. The three I knew; Warren Buffet (not a trader), Jim Rogers (also not really a trader), and George Soros (a trader).

I have read so many quotes from great traders since I picked up my first book. Many of their comments resonate in me daily, even though I may not exactly remember which guy said what. I remember reading about Soros saying something like (by the way, I have not looked this quote up again before this post. I'll just assume it is close enough),

"When a trader feels he's got the right trade, one can not have big enough position."

It dripped with wisdom. Words from the prophet, or even the messiah himself in the world of trading.

Today I look at that comment differently. I'll break it down;

1) "When a trader..." if we asked George Soros what makes a great trader, what would his definition be? Would I qualify? Would you?

2) "...feels he's got the right trade..." What would give Soros that feeling? Indicators? News? Fundamentals? Experience? Inside information? All of the above? One opportunity per year? Per lifetime?

3) "...one cannot have a big enough position." Well, yes, it is hard to get hurt by size if everything goes in your favor. In theory, prehaps that one statement is the holy grail. You can never have too big of a win.

But, what was the stop size? How much equity did they risk? How did they know that was the right trade? Soros also had some miserably losing trades. Even great traders never really know until the trade proves itself. What if that trade had gone wrong? Would we still know the name as well today?

Soros was absolutely correct; you can never have too big of a position in a winning trade. But, you sure as heck can in a losing one.

Stay Safe!

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  #944 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
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GaryD View Post
My financial idols used to be from the world of real estate. My favorite was not the best known, like Donald Trump, or Sam Zell, or Trammel Crow, but a guy named William Sanders (long story).

When I first came into trading, I initially read about the guys I thought were the best, based on the fact they were known by traders and non-traders alike. The three I knew; Warren Buffet (not a trader), Jim Rogers (also not really a trader), and George Soros (a trader).

I have read so many quotes from great traders since I picked up my first book. Many of their comments resonate in me daily, even though I may not exactly remember which guy said what. I remember reading about Soros saying something like (by the way, I have not looked this quote up again before this post. I'll just assume it is close enough),

"When a trader feels he's got the right trade, one can not have big enough position."

It dripped with wisdom. Words from the prophet, or even the messiah himself in the world of trading.

Today I look at that comment differently. I'll break it down;




1) "When a trader..." if we asked George Soros what makes a great trader, what would his definition be? Would I qualify? Would you?

2) "...feels he's got the right trade..." What would give Soros that feeling? Indicators? News? Fundamentals? Experience? Inside information? All of the above? One opportunity per year? Per lifetime?

3) "...one cannot have a big enough position." Well, yes, it is hard to get hurt by size if everything goes in your favor. In theory, prehaps that one statement is the holy grail. You can never have too big of a win.

But, what was the stop size? How much equity did they risk? How did they know that was the right trade? Soros also had some miserably losing trades. Even great traders never really know until the trade proves itself. What if that trade had gone wrong? Would we still know the name as well today?

Soros was absolutely correct; you can never have too big of a position in a winning trade. But, you sure as heck can in a losing one.

Stay Safe!


You keep forgetting ' STOP LOSS". Does not matter 2 cars or 500 cars. I just do not trade with same size every day. For that I will have to assume every day is the same. George Soros quote is not word for word. It's 2 different quotes combined based on what i could remember.

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  #945 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
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Pivot tracker value of 3 ( Yum) . 12 day cumulative ABCD -5 and 30 days 8. Since Mark Fisher method fits my personality , for me he is a GENIUS. Now, ACD is not a solution to ones problems if a trader is a BAD trader. He/she will stay a BAD trader.

Per his book, he taught ACD method to 4,000 traders, 50% slept through the class and out of rest only 1,000 or so got ACD right ( based off my memory). My take is that book is so SIMPLE that most of the readers ( including myself) do not get it on the first read.

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  #946 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
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mfbreakout View Post
Pivot tracker value of 3 ( Yum) . 12 day cumulative ABCD -5 and 30 days 8. Since Mark Fisher method fits my personality , for me he is a GENIUS. Now, ACD is not a solution to ones problems if a trader is a BAD trader. He/she will stay a BAD trader.

Per his book, he taught ACD method to 4,000 traders, 50% slept through the class and out of rest only 1,000 or so got ACD right ( based off my memory). My take is that book is so SIMPLE that most of the readers ( including myself) do not get it on the first read.

I share my thoughts to fill gaps in my trading. It's in my self interest to share and learn.

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  #947 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
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I do not use Fib and patterns to trade but like to see what else traders are looking at. It helps to look at things differently otherwise ACD box gets pretty boring. This is from a friend.

$CL_F visual $$ http://platinumplus.thetradingbook.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/12_19_CL_15m.png

PRZ= Price reversal zone

Does not hurt to look at BIG picture.

$CL_F big picture $$ https://stks.co/1b4q

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  #948 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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CL volume has rolled to February. CL broke out from the minor bullish wedge overnight, finding minor double bottom support at the major 382 retracement.




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  #949 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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Looking for confirmation on a long entry around 93.50


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  #950 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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[URL=https://cdn.bmcharts.com/view.php?filename=7rx9mq.jpg][/URL

I may dump this. Felt 50/50.

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