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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets


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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

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  #931 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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 mfbreakout 
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I had BAD trading day on Friday. All due to my desire to trade with size. I try to trade with size couple of times a month and mostly get SLAPPED. My system gets re balanced and i go back to more manageable position size.
Sooner or later , I will learn how to trade with big position.

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 GaryD 
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Crude got the reaction I was hoping to catch on Thursday.

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 GaryD 
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 GaryD 
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mfbreakout View Post
I had BAD trading day on Friday. All due to my desire to trade with size. I try to trade with size couple of times a month and mostly get SLAPPED. My system gets re balanced and i go back to more manageable position size.
Sooner or later , I will learn how to trade with big position.


You don't have to trade with a big position. You can make a lot of money on low risk by your trade frequency and entry selection.

Trading size has a lot going against it. Most of all, psychology. A small loss means nothing to me. A big loss affects me, and it is likely I will not know how exactly from a subconscious level without really paying attention to it. That means I could trade off-balance for days afterwards. And going for big size wins is about greed, which can also cloud your decisions and perception.

Also, mathematically, trying to go for size means you are reducing your number of trades that you can be wrong to a smaller sampling. For example, I know I will be correct about 6 out of 10 times over the long haul, 30 days or so. But over the short period, I may have days at 100%, and other days at 0%.

Trading profitably relies on math and probabilities, and the odds are not good enough to overcome a major uphill battle. If you lose 20%, you have to make 25% just to get back to even. If you lose 50%, you have to make 100% to get to breakeven. In contrast, lose 5%, and you only need to make 5.26% to get to breakeven. Lose 2% and you only need 2.04% to get back where you were.

Stay Safe.

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 mfbreakout 
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GaryD View Post
You don't have to trade with a big position. You can make a lot of money on low risk by your trade frequency and entry selection.

Trading size has a lot going against it. Most of all, psychology. A small loss means nothing to me. A big loss affects me, and it is likely I will not know how exactly from a subconscious level without really paying attention to it. That means I could trade off-balance for days afterwards. And going for big size wins is about greed, which can also cloud your decisions and perception.

Also, mathematically, trying to go for size means you are reducing your number of trades that you can be wrong to a smaller sampling. For example, I know I will be correct about 6 out of 10 times over the long haul, 30 days or so. But over the short period, I may have days at 100%, and other days at 0%.

Trading profitably relies on math and probabilities, and the odds are not good enough to overcome a major uphill battle. If you lose 20%, you have to make 25% just to get back to even. If you lose 50%, you have to make 100% to get to breakeven. In contrast, lose 5%, and you only need to make 5.26% to get to breakeven. Lose 2% and you only need 2.04% to get back where you were.

Stay Safe.

Agreed with everything you said Gary. However, being a follower of Mark Fisher method, I 100% agree with his trading method that there are trading days when one has to trade with maximum size. For example, for CL last Tuesday and Wednesday were days to trade with size per ACD method.

One of my weak area continues to be identifying type of trading day. After spending 4,000 hours trading exclusively CL with ACD method ( live and sim) I feel it's just around the corner. Obviously, i am not ready yet. Only way to find is to trade LIVE as i have done enough practice and still do every week to break the bank in SIM account.

Now, waiting to see how long will the transition will take to trade with size LIVE.

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 GaryD 
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No matter how good you are, when you leave yourself open you stand the risk of being knocked out.

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 mfbreakout 
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No matter how good you are, when you leave yourself open you stand the risk of being knocked out.

Lol, I said I had BAD day not that I got knocked down. This wonderful Picture of Mr. Ali shows that he was ready to go for his opponent throat when his conditions were met. One of my favorite quote from George Soros is " When a trader feels he got the right trade, one can not have BIG enough position. It takes courage to be a PIG". Thank GOD we have stop loss.

I understand this may not be every trader style.

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 mfbreakout 
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GaryD View Post


Crude got the reaction I was hoping to catch on Thursday.

here is a good example of understanding major waves would have helped me to book profits at support and not give back 50 ticks. ACD method does not give much in terms of support/resistance. That's what i am after.

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 GaryD 
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mfbreakout View Post
Lol, I said I had BAD day not that I got knocked down. This wonderful Picture of Mr. Ali shows that he was ready to go for his opponent throat when his conditions were met. One of my favorite quote from George Soros is " When a trader feels he got the right trade, one can not have BIG enough position. It takes courage to be a PIG". Thank GOD we have stop loss.

I understand this may not be every trader style.




How long had Soros traded when he made that statement? Did Soros trade based on fundamantals, technicals, or both? Did he make his decisions alone or in coperation with the advice of others? Did he rely on indicators, economic factors, pertinent information, historical patterns? Was Soros a subscriber to the ACD method?

Risk is a personal factor. No one can say where that is for anyone other than themselves. My trading beliefs include far too much risk for some, but fits my comfort level. Bigger risk can equal greater rewards, but risk should always be thought of with a capital R, as it deserves respect. I hope your method gives you what you are seeking.

I looked at the ACD method this weekend. There are as many ways to trade as there are traders. We could be on opposite sides and both make money.

I am working on a presentation on a view of risk that may not be apparent to some traders. It may be awhile before I have it done, it's fairly time consuming to be able to show what I am hoping to effectively. But I believe it will change how some traders think of risk going forward. It will not be a recommendation, but rather a tool for individual assessment and a mathematical display of possibly less considered factors. Maybe in the next few weeks. I am doing it at night and on Sunday mornings.

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