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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets


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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

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  #861 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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This is not exactly what I am planning, but a break from this triangle could offer a 3 to 1 swing potential

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 GaryD 
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From a 60 minute view, the profit target is just barely past the 386 retracement, so the move would not necessarily need to be that impressive on a larger perspective.

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 GaryD 
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The 10:30am EST EIA could give a nice push.

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 GaryD 
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The word 'confirmation" is strong in my mind today. When I was studying with a very talented mentor, he would use that word over and over. Sometimes it would frustrate me immensely, because what he called confirmation, I saw as missing the big move. lol

But, the confirmation process for a swing short here;

1) Price breaks out to the downside of the triangle
2) Price breaks the prior low pivot at around 97.20
3) Price breaks the low pivot at around 95.20


Each step of confirmation seems like I would just be stating the obvious, after the fact. That's another frustrating part of confirmation. But, each of those steps provides a greater arguement for the trend being down. Where the market is right now, we only have confirmation of a trendline reversal.

Reward to risk is one calculation. Probability is a completely different thing.

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 GaryD 
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Unfortunately, I will not be able to trade today's EIA and will be out until around market close. But if I were trading, that red triangle would provide the structure against which I would analyze my trades. As confirmed support, confirmed resistance, confirmed lack of support, etc.

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 GaryD 
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Price decided to test the lower edge of the triangle early and I decided to take a shot at riding the stops blowing.

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 GaryD 
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 GaryD 
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 GaryD 
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Closed +58 ticks. I have a meeting to go to. This may run...

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 GaryD 
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I am flat, but in my mind the chart above is how I would be looking at this structure right now. Wish I could stick around and see how this story unfolds. Will have to catch up with it this evening.

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