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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

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The first thing I want to know, is what is the definition of significant volume in 6e. I know crude very well, and when you get over about 1000 contracts per 1 minute it is time to take notice. The 6E seems initially like it might be a little lower than that. The largest volume spike I see in the past 24 hours is around 630 contracts just before yesterday's US open. Crude is runnig at 83 on a 1440 minute average, but has been in consolidation mode, so that is probably low. I'm going to start with a minumum of 10x daily avg, or 300 contracts.


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No, 250

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ES found support at this trend line, and I am still bullish after yesterday's support at the low. Volume support came in around 31, and I expect it will be retested again. I will look to buy on a retest of the support. To clarify, the trend line was there; I'm not saying the trend line itself had anything to do with people buying there, though I'm sure some did. It was also a tick above yesterday's VPOC, where it popped to at the end of the day. Multiple reasons why people may buy there, just pointing out a couple.

Gary mentioned the magic number for 1m volume per instrument. For me in CL it was interested at 1K, VERY interested at 2K. For ES, it's interested at 10K, and very interested at 20K. I actually tried to short 37 after it failed, for a ride down, but was not filled and am sticking to the current plan instead of being divided in my intentions.

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Last edited by josh; December 13th, 2011 at 01:35 PM.
 
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Around 12:40pm, there was a move down to 33, and it based there and has now pushed back to test the open and the 37 area. I was not willing to buy 33, though I was tempted to as it based pretty well. It's entirely possible it will just move straight up from here, and I'm okay with that. From the profile as well, it looked like a point where it should find support. But the volume up is so low so far, and it still looks like there is more down to come before more up, though I could be way off.

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One last post for now: I am aware that if we break 31 strongly, that buyers may support the 27 area instead. It is not inconceivable, as there was overnight support there, also yesterday afternoon after the big run-up, and the profile shows the nice area of balance that is basically from 27 to 31. It is clearly delineated from the lower balance of 21 to 25. It will depend on how price acts at 31, if we even make it there now.

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I was out all morning, but look at the direct hit to the green previous trendline. Textbook perfection.


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bought 30.50

edit: closed at 33.75 ... saw sellers come in, will look to re-enter ... probably a big mistake closing there

EDIT: took one more long at 27, and took a -1 loss, so +1.75 on the two trades. A bit impulsive. Will wait a bit and see what happens next.

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Last edited by josh; December 13th, 2011 at 03:49 PM.
 
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Well it turned bloody red quite fast ... my premise of a long was good enough to make me some money, but ultimately the wrong direction for the afternoon.

 
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I am watching for a breakout from this red triangle

 
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I've coded both sides of thie symmetrical triancgle red because I feel stronger about the short side for some reason. Price broke the major trendline recently (green line), then returned to the underside of it and stopped to the tick. Stop losses have now most likely gathered in two areas, indicated by two horizintal red lines, which I sometimes view as fuel to propel the market along it's way on the longer path. The blue horizontal lines represent an area of structural support, which may be strengthened with the addition of fib lines. I have not looked yet as the trendlines themselves are providing an interesting backdorp right now.


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