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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

  #841 (permalink)
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GaryD View Post
I would like to see crude test one of the red or green lines. I am still flat today, and in no hurry.

Would you prefer the test be on low volume or heavier volume? Or, does it mostly depend on what price does after the test?

 
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a la Gary, here is my entry chart. Hoping the stop will survive... if it does not, I do not think the LOD will survive, so I'd rather get out alive BE and reevaluate.

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Close call but still in ... maybe not for long though..

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out 29.75 +7.50

would have held but I tried to move my stop up and got a broker error, so just closed manually... when error messages pop up, I get nervous

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  #845 (permalink)
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Gary, I hope you don't mind me posting these charts, but I felt we were stalking the same long trade and my chart looked similar to the one you posted earlier. Basically, it was same premise: basing at prior support, volume confirmation, etc. Your chart earlier gave me confidence that I might be looking in the right direction.

I exited due to an error when trying to move my stop order, but also was ready to bail when I saw the sellers come in at 31, and a +1150 or so on TICK.

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  #846 (permalink)
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josh View Post
Would you prefer the test be on low volume or heavier volume? Or, does it mostly depend on what price does after the test?



Crude did "test" the first upper green line, which is also the top of the current channel, but nothing happened. I guess my wording was a little off.

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When a channel like this forms you will typically get traders on both sides hitting the tops and bottoms, and thus the channel continues. But that is not a trade that I will take a rougly 80 tick channel. Not that the reward to risk doesn't make sense (if you catch the top and it returns to the bottom, you could easily go in on a 30 tick stop +/-), but to me it feels more like a flip of a coin.

What I guess I was really saying was,

1) If it tests the bottom of the channel, breaks thorugh on high volume, then reverses to the upside and provides some reversal confirmation (aka a "washout"), that would be enough for me to look for a long entry. It would be a strong sign of support after this much time in this tight range.

2) For the upper side of the channel, I would prefer to not see a "test", as that is what we keep getting, but a solid breakout. That would also cause me to look for a long.

3) If we saw a solid breakout of the low side, I would be looking for a short entry, as the next major support area is a sizable move down.


I would think that a good number of stop losses, as well as buy/sell stop orders, have been building up on both sides. Any of those three occurences should be on high volume.

I did not add the possible washout at the top, but it is a possibility, but really for me to consider a washout on the top side I would tend to be watching for the second green line in the previous post at around 99.00.

No trade whatsoever today. Consolidation is a condition that I am much better at talking about than I am at trading. The bigger picture for me is the breakout. Let one side believe they have lost and I should be able find something I am comfortable with.

It used to be almost painful for me to just watch and do nothing on a day like this. If channels were a trade I looked for, I missed some great opportunities. I might have been able to grab 3 or more entires for 50 ticks +, if it was my trade. A lot of traders adjust their style on days like this and I'm sure some do very well at it.

I have found I don't do well at trying to have two sides of thought, one for one type of market and another for a second type. What I realized I was actually doing was trying to force a trade by doing that, looking for something even when something may not be there. I like to keep my thinking consistent to remove that variable from the math of probabilities. Take a lottery ticket with 3 numbers, add a fourth, and the odds just got a lot different.

Today I feel I traded very well, by not trading, and, by not feeling even slightly like I missed out on anything. Maybe overnight or tomorrow. Crude can't stay here forever. I'll bet on that.

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josh View Post
Gary, I hope you don't mind me posting these charts, but I felt we were stalking the same long trade and my chart looked similar to the one you posted earlier. Basically, it was same premise: basing at prior support, volume confirmation, etc. Your chart earlier gave me confidence that I might be looking in the right direction.

I exited due to an error when trying to move my stop order, but also was ready to bail when I saw the sellers come in at 31, and a +1150 or so on TICK.


If you had posted a 6 tick scalp I might have been offended... I'm kidding, just so you know.

I don't mind at all. You analyzed your setup, managed your risk, had patience with your stop placement, and 7+ points from the ES is a great move. I would have loved to have that as my own trade. Your practice, study and experience gave you the confidence.

Now that you somewhat brought it up, I have considered seeing if I could round up a few traders for a friendly competition and maintain it on this thread, or maybe start another. The idea would be to learn from it more than to compete, but it would definitely remain a competition. I have some thoughts I have been sketching out the past few nights and believe I will start something by January 1.

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I have some thoughts I have been sketching out the past few nights and believe I will start something by January 1.

Sounds like fun Gary, look forward to your ideas as always.

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I have not taken a live trade in the 6E probably more than one or two times in the past 2 years, but it has been such a dominat news topic lately that I am going to watch it for awhile. The trend is obviously down, and ultimately I will be watching for a short, but I also know that when the majority of traders go to one side heavily, the desire to lock in profits and/or stop losses can cause short covering bursts. Those moves can be some of the fastest and most violent I have seen.

Everyone is talking about the Euro right now, on the news, in the chat rooms, in recent dinner conversations, at my bank, even my doctor during a recent checkup swears the Euro will cesae to exist in the near future, and that it will be the best thing to ever happen for European tourism. "Europe vacations are so expensive"

Whether the euro dies or not, it should make for an interesting trade right now. I don't really care about the fundamentals on anything I trade. But, the trend is another story.

When I did trade the euro, I used a 4 range as a primary entry chart. I tried that without any indicator setting changes on a 6-range I use, and it was a little too jumpy. The 6 range actully looked very smooth, but failed to reach the donchians like I would prefer to see, so I am going for a 5 range. Many might think that is reckless, just picking a range without backtesting. When I first found futures.io (formerly BMT), the first trader that caught my attention was Sharky. He cracked me up with a post, something like, "backtest, what is there to backtest?" Laughed again as I typed this.

Actually, I still believe there is a lot to be learned from backtesting, but not enough for it to dominate my trades. When the market is going up, go long, when it is going down, go short. I have optimized trading systems for days, tweaking one setting after another. There is no difference, in my mind, in doing the same thing but with my own thoughts and behaviors, my own attitude and patience. If something I thought or believed did not work, change the settings and see what happens until the system is optimized. Computerized backtesting seems so much easier to do than working on my own beliefs, there are results in black and white, ready to export to a spreadsheet for a mathematical nirvana. But that can hide the real issues that affect trading. So, 5 range it is. That means less than higher timeframes and volume to me anyway.

I will also want some equivalent of a divergence chart, like the 9 range for CL, but have not looked at that much yet. 9 may work fine.

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