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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

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Today's trading recap

+15
-6
+15
+50

=74 ticks

My reward to risk was very good today. All 3 wins were more than 2x my loss (although not my emergency stop, different thing to me).

Done for the day. Friday is a great day to stop and relax.

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I still think shorts may get trapped today. It is Friday, yesterday was a big move. If there is not a real drive to sell between now and 5p. there could be a short covering rally. But, when it did not take off I decided to go flat and let the market tell me more.


Going back to this post, this is something I have learned the hard way.

I actually took a much worse entry when I got back in to this long trade, so some might say I was wrong to get out. I could have placed my stop below the closest major pivot and not gotten hit.

To me, when I got back in I had a lot more information to go off of, and so the trade had far greater probability of working in my favor than when it was moving against me. Notice that in the 2nd entry I held through around 9 ticks of heat, compared to the first entry where I bailed at 6 ticks. What changed?

1) I saw the local double bottom. Buyers were supporting price.
2) Price moved back above the minor high. That is when I got back in.

Shorts were most likely stuck. Great odds, especially on a Friday, AND especially when we had such a huge move yesterday to the downside.

"Everyone" knew crude was going down today. Most everyone will be wrong, and most want to be flat before the end of day.

If you read this post to pick up trading pointers, this example is a very good one to study. Look thought the action and the time of entry and see if it makes sense to you. But, realize that it will fail. No trade is worth any other, that I repeat to myself daily. But, some I believe have a higher chance of working, and this 2nd entry today was one of them.

Stay Safe!


Last edited by GaryD; December 9th, 2011 at 03:22 PM. Reason: better layout, typos more typos. I need a spell checker
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I just replied to one of Big Mike's threads and liked what came out of my own head, so wanted to log it in my journal. I re-read my own posts in this thread often to somewhat "see myself in the mirror". I have learned a lot from the other traders on futures.io (formerly BMT), and I have taught myself a lot this year by getting my thoughts out on futures.io (formerly BMT). Big Mike's question brought to the surface what forms a large part of my trading beliefs.

https://futures.io/traders-hideout/15968-simple-directional-trading-profitable.html#post175677



Focus on a specialty instead of taking the shotgun approach and devote your attention to understanding your niche. I don't believe it can be as easy as "this crosses that", but I believe it should be very simple.

The complexity of trading is not in the charts, it is in the mind. Trading itself is not overly complicated. An example of the simplicity;

1) Markets only go up or down (they can consolidate, but they leave that state in a direction). There are only two directions. Deciding how far, how much room to allow it to breath can get complex, but it still comes down to one of two choices.

2) Markets will only move in one direction for so long before they change direction. Traders study, and for the most part agree, where the change of direction should most likely occur. That should limit your choices for where to watch.

3) Volume moves the market and volume changes the direction. Limit your entry and exit selections to areas where volume provides confirmation. Don't try to be the first to make a move. Volume will show itself.

4) Allowing winners to be larger than losers beats a lot of things that could go wrong.

It may require a lot of study and practice and learning and patience, but not anything that seems "complex". Maybe chart analysis, but even that can be simplified to far less than quantum physics.

Maybe a silly analogy, but as humans, our ability to balance on two legs is complex (try programming a robot to do it as well as a human). We had to practice that skill as babies until it became second nature. But today, while there may be a lot of complexity occuring in the background for our bodies to maintain balance (and we could probably map all of that with tons of analysis and indicators and charts), if you stand up right now, does any of that really matter? The complexity of balance is just going on silently in the background.

The study of anything can be complex, but is complexity a required point of focus? I'd rather go skiing. Balance is mandatory for that, but never enters my mind. Gravity is also mandatory, and complex, but still not on my checklist. Skiing does not require me to be aware of the complexity. What does matter, in my mind; have I practiced enough to have the ability to ski this run safely? If not, the prudent thing would be to get back to the practice area.


Last edited by GaryD; December 10th, 2011 at 05:13 PM. Reason: expanding thoughts on balance
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Gary, I have a question regarding your decision to go long. Though the day was bullish, at 99 the resistance was hit, and then on the second attempt to hit the high (around 11:45) sellers showed up (stopping volume there). Now, when it based at 98.22, it made another attempt at the high, yet there was no volume confirmation as far as I can see at the 98.22 basing area. Why were you interested in a long at this point?

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https://futures.io/traders-hideout/15994-how-i-backtest.html#post175820

 
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Gary, I have a question regarding your decision to go long. Though the day was bullish, at 99 the resistance was hit, and then on the second attempt to hit the high (around 11:45) sellers showed up (stopping volume there). Now, when it based at 98.22, it made another attempt at the high, yet there was no volume confirmation as far as I can see at the 98.22 basing area. Why were you interested in a long at this point?


This trade was more lack of volume than presence of it. Crude had fallen back to an area of prior support, and had made a big move the prior day. If the sellers were done for the week, which by that time of day they most likely were, lack of volume meant there was nothing to push price down. The real move was over. Now, looking back at the day's price action, new longs had been whipsawed, and new shorts had most likey entered at the top of the day's range. Price was being supported at the bottom end potentially by shorts trying to get flat and bank their profits before the market closed, to open who knows where on Sunday night. That is a lot of time to pass compared to a typical end of day close for less than 1 hour.

I had suspected that trade in my first attempt for the day, but I then got out thinking something like, "if it was going to go, it would have gone", and decided to wait for more confirmation of the theory of a short covering rally potential. When price then failed to make a new low, then popped back above the prior minor high, and we had around 30 minutes to go for any se,blance of volume before the pit closed, that is when I felt best that shorts were stuck.

If selling had dried up, and the dominant position was short, and they wanted out, then he prevailing volume would be buyers. And, with low volume, a smaller number of traders all headning for the same exit caused a violent burst up. That burst was what I did not see in my first entry and why I decided to step aside.

When you step back and look at a 60 minute, notice the prior triple bottom. That was an area where buyers were willing to defend price recently, and that looks scary to a trader when the market is about to close. Until support breaks, you have to assume it will hold.

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josh View Post
Gary, I have a question regarding your decision to go long. Though the day was bullish, at 99 the resistance was hit, and then on the second attempt to hit the high (around 11:45) sellers showed up (stopping volume there). Now, when it based at 98.22, it made another attempt at the high, yet there was no volume confirmation as far as I can see at the 98.22 basing area. Why were you interested in a long at this point?



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Here is my 1 minute marked up similar to yours. The small yellow elipse area is where I went long the 2nd time. The green arrow of "No volume confirmation..." also marks a minor double bottom, and then price broke above the minor double top, and triggered me to have more faith in the trade. But really, volume did not affect the decision as much as the time of day, 6 range double bottom, 6 range high pivot broke, prior day's action, whon was most likely left in the market, 60 minute chart, etc.


Last edited by GaryD; December 11th, 2011 at 05:10 PM. Reason: typos
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The major trednline is broken and I am watching for resistance to take place somewhere around this area.


Last edited by GaryD; December 11th, 2011 at 05:19 PM. Reason: typos. My keyboard sticks
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When you step back and look at a 60 minute, notice the prior triple bottom. That was an area where buyers were willing to defend price recently, and that looks scary to a trader when the market is about to close. Until support breaks, you have to assume it will hold.

Good stuff, thanks Gary..

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Resistance held, took hold slightly ahead of where I woud have guessed, but not surprised. price is now back in an area of confirmed support. There are probably stops around 97.37ish. A washout move in that area could be a good opportunity for a long, and a confirmed breakout from that area could be a good opportunity for a short, with the next major support area being down in the 95.50 range.

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