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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

  #71 (permalink)
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GaryD View Post
Approaching area of interest for possible long entry

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please post or name that indicator in panel 2,

clean, nice, effective, and useful

thanks in advance

 
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kronie View Post
please post or name that indicator in panel 2,

clean, nice, effective, and useful

thanks in advance

I obtained it through group that I paid to study with, and am not sure I have permission to share the actual indicator. But, it is a standard RSI that should come with most platforms. The only difference is that it was modified to show a color change at an OB/OS condition, which on that chart is set to 90/10. The period is 2, and "calculate on bar close" is set to false.

 
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Now that the 2:30 rush is off, notice that the last trade target would have hit... Today I was knocked out twice by timing...A short I took before the 10:30am EIA, and a long before the 2:30pm close. Both moved in my direction after I got out, but the timing of both was not right.

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It seemed so far away this morning, but crude made it down to the daily trendline. This is an area to watch for a long trade with a good risk/reward.

HOWEVER, the last time crude got to this channel we had a beautiful ABC pattern and decidedly bullish structure. This time we have that somewhat ominous H&S pattern casting a shadow over everything, and stock indexes tumbling down. And, the last time crude touched it's daily trendline it was a near direct hit for a double bottom, but this will be the third attempt to bottom here, and third attempts often break through (stops). That is why I showed "Zone 2" on the study this morning.

Unfortunately I have to make an unscheduled trip to Dallas in the morning and will be gone before the market opens.

p.s. Or, this is a gigantic bearish flag? lol

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Last edited by GaryD; August 3rd, 2011 at 09:32 PM. Reason: additional info
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Notice the big volume up bar at the jobs report, and then the big volume down bar around 9:55am EST. I'm flat, and not directionally biased right now, but the market is trying to tell us something in the area.

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I did not have time to explain this when I posted. Things were happening fast and I got a little worse entry price on the long because I was messing wiht trying to show images here. The fib lines above just show simple 100% measurements of 1) the most recent wave down, and 2) a previous wave of similar length.

So;

1) Fib support on higher timeframe
2) The high volume area I mentioned on the 1 minute chart above
3) The fact that we had such a burst up on the jobs report
4) The fact that the huge down move yesterday meant we had a lot of shorts in the market (many frsh today probably)

caused me to look for a reversal. When I then got the reversal on the 9 range and 6 range, I was ready to look for an entry.

Trades like this are countertrend in my mind, and as a rule I prefer to only trade with the trend, but when everything lines up I like these trades. I posted something previously about "In through the out door" where I was referencing this type of trade. Not sure if I explained it sufficiently then, but I may go back and read later.

As I write this (this is an edit post made a while after I first showed this chart, and after I closed the 71 tick long below) the market has come right back into another area where I am looking for a long reversal. It is Friday, and shorts don't seem to like the Friday closes...


Last edited by GaryD; August 5th, 2011 at 12:09 PM. Reason: Add commentary
 
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I am in

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Edit comment after the trade was closed; I should have tried to enter closer to 86.20, but was feeling rushed by trying to trade and comment and decided to go market. Not a good move on my part, as patience is a key ingredient to succesful trades. I will reflect on that more and try to do better in the future.

Sometimes I allow myself to break my rules. Still working on that within myself. breaking a rule like not getting in at the perfect spot is a lot more excusable than breaking a rule about moving a stop, or averaging down, and no where near the sin of using dangerous levels of leverage or trying to catch the bottom...


Last edited by GaryD; August 5th, 2011 at 12:14 PM. Reason: add commentary
 
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I closed for 71 ticks. Personal policy to take a good win on Friday. This one could still run, and I may get back in later, but we hit the 618 retracement of the previous move down, and we are in bear mode on a higher timeframe.

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Nice.



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