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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

  #761 (permalink)
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Have you tried Viagra and Steroids. It will descrease your size...


Maybe that is why we tend to think adding contracts is the way to go. We believe bigger is better.

 
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Gary, I saw your 120m chart and thought I would check it out myself as well. The attached chart shows a profile from last week only. From 11/17 through 11/21 there was a consolidation on the way down, but since we worked our way up through there I'm only considering activity that's more recent. The midpoint between the low made on 11/21 and the high on Friday is 1719, which happens to be the POC of that location distribution. I will go out on a limb (risking nothing ) and call the 1717 to 1719 area a better support candidate than the upper 1720s. That's where we were sitting just before the surprise 8am news that sent the market north.

This area is a bit smaller but basically the lower end of what you have marked as support on your chart, though your other has high 20s and low 30s... I think if it makes it there, that 1720 will be tested before another significant move up.

To be clear, this profile is based on 1 minute data, not on tick data, as the 1m approximation is much smoother and more readable.

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Last edited by josh; December 4th, 2011 at 06:18 PM.
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  #763 (permalink)
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josh View Post
Gary, I saw your 120m chart and thought I would check it out myself as well. The attached chart shows a profile from last week only. From 11/17 through 11/21 there was a consolidation on the way down, but since we worked our way up through there I'm only considering activity that's more recent. The midpoint between the low made on 11/21 and the high on Friday is 1719, which happens to be the POC of that location distribution. I will go out on a limb (risking nothing ) and call the 1717 to 1719 area a better support candidate than the upper 1720s. That's where we were sitting just before the surprise 8am news that sent the market north.

This area is a bit smaller but basically the lower end of what you have marked as support on your chart, though your other has high 20s and low 30s... I think if it makes it there, that 1720 will be tested before another significant move up.

To be clear, this profile is based on 1 minute data, not on tick data, as the 1m approximation is much smoother and more readable.


Looks like we both rely on a 1 minute timeframe for microscopic volume analysis. I don't have much experience at horizontal volume or point of control analysis. It may be a better way to go, I tried it for awhile, went back to what I had more experience with. I think Larry Levine's trade room uses that type of volume, and it may be better.

But, we may also arrive at similar entry points through different methods. I consider SR zones to be somewhat negotiable. If I had a line at 1720, but volume did not come in, that line was off some, no big deal. The analysis could be flawless, but zones get penetrated and, to me, can still remain valid. If volume then came in at 1717, I would consider it the same zone. The general rules for the 6-range I watch are that a reversal is required. If 1720 could not produce a reversal, it most likely would not entice me to enter. I like to have an area to watch and then let the price action fill in the blanks.

If the POC works let me know. I am not trading right now. Too much going on for me this month.

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  #764 (permalink)
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I did not watch the markets on Friday, but just opened NT to test something and saw the price action from Friday on this 120 minute chart. I changed the color of the major trendline from the previous chart post blue to a bright red in the chart above to make it stand out more. Look how beautifully it held. My guess is that stops blew above the tension that had built up around the LSP resistance zone, and I would also guess it happened on or after the third approach to that zone. If had had looked at some other charts before this post I could tell much better, but it will be fun to see later if my assumption is correct. Sometimes the more obvious resistance becomes, the more dangerous it can be in regards to stop placement.

A reversal confirmation around the first green trendline would be my dream entry for a long to catch the possible continuation, if I was going to watch for it. But I have a lot going on through the end of the year and believe this year's trading is winding to a very quiet close. I most likely will not be trading much over the next few weeks, if at all. But I am going to watch this gold wave when I get time just to not lose touch with it. If it makes it to the target I will consider it a win in analysis, and hopefully another lesson learned.



EDIT: I just noticed that this wave 5 may develop as a 5WM itself, on a lower timeframe. Watch for the 100% to 137% move of possible w2 of this move on a 120 minute.

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The reason I focused on the upper end of the blue zone was the fib confluence and the lower timeframe trendline (lower chart). But the blue zone on the daily (upper chart) is a large area, and support could be anywhere near that. And further down (upper chart) he daily trendline could hold even with a drop to around 1700.

 
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I have a new toy, called "prt sc" from Silver Dragon. Wow. I'm so excited I just wanted to post a screenshot of my laptop view.

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I'm sitting on my couch with my wife and my dog, reading futures.io (formerly BMT) to get some info I am looking for. I have not opened my NT "laptop" workspace for awhile, so the fibs on the chart above are old analysis. Look how wonderfully the resistance held. Those lines were drawn well in advance.

I used to be amazed by SR levels, like it was some sort of magic, or worse, coincidence. Today I think of it as expected. Not any specific set of fibs, or even any strong confluence, but just in general. Yes, SR gets broken, plan on it.

But, IF a turn is going to happen, I really feel that I understand where it should.

This thread started with one purpose, and then morphed into something completely different; my pursuit of optimizing myself.

I can trade profitably, but still see my performance as weak. It's because I see what I need to do and cannot seem to do it, and I am starting to see that my biggest issue is the training I have put myself through to get where I am.

I am starting to think that for me to move to the next level of trading, I may need to switch instruments to reduce leverage. Maybe futrues are not where I need to be right now. I'm discussing that with myself a lot lately.

I want to be a great trader more than I want to make money. Who knows why. It doesn't matter. I do know that I trade best when I don't care about money.

For anyone who reads this, here's something I'd be interested to see the replies on; why do you think SR levels work? I have my answer, what is yours?


Last edited by GaryD; December 6th, 2011 at 12:46 AM. Reason: I really am bad about typos
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  #766 (permalink)
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The green major trendline in the last post... That tells the story. Will it hold? Will it break? If I base a trade off that and then fast-forward 30 days, that should be significant.

Reward vs Risk.

 
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GaryD View Post
I have a new toy, called "prt sc" from Silver Dragon. Wow. I'm so excited I just wanted to post a screenshot of my laptop view.

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I'm sitting on my couch with my wife and my dog, reading futures.io (formerly BMT) to get some info I am looking for. I have not opened my NT "laptop" workspace for awhile, so the fibs on the chart above are old analysis. Look how wonderfully the resistance held. Those lines were drawn well in advance.

I used to be amazed by SR levels, like it was some sort of magic, or worse, coincidence. Today I think of it as expected. Not any specific set of fibs, or even any strong confluence, but just in general. Yes, SR gets broken, plan on it.

But, IF a turn is going to happen, I really feel that I understand where it should.

This thread started with one purpose, and then morphed into something completely different; my pursuit of optimizing wor.

I can trade profitably, but still see my performance as weak. It's because I see what I need to do and cannot seem to do, and I am starting to see that my biggest issue is the training I have put myself through to get where I am.

I am starting to think that for me to move to the next level of trading, I may need to switch instruments to reduce leverage. Maybe futrues are not where I need to be right now. I'm discussing that with myself a lot lately.

I want to be a great trader more than I want to make money. Who knows why. It doesn't matter. I do know that I trade best when I don't care about money.

For anyone who reads this, here's something I'd be interested to see the replies on; why do you think SR levels work? I have my answer, what is yours?


Gary, my opinion as to why S/R works is because those areas are where the battles take place between the buyers and sellers, or the bulls and bears. I believe that support is where demand should enter and resistance is where supply should enter. If resistance breaks its because the demand overcame the supply and if support breaks its because supply overcame the demand. I like this concept because it seems logical to me and makes sense to me. Is it true? I don't know. I also tend to put more weight on S/R derived from price itself and not a moving average or fibs. That's not to say they can't aid in the analysis, but pure price with horizontal and diagonal trend lines seems the most organic to me.

D

 
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David_R View Post
Gary, my opinion as to why S/R works is because those areas are where the battles take place between the buyers and sellers, or the bulls and bears. I believe that support is where demand should enter and resistance is where supply should enter. If resistance breaks its because the demand overcame the supply and if support breaks its because supply overcame the demand. I like this concept because it seems logical to me and makes sense to me. Is it true? I don't know. I also tend to put more weight on S/R derived from price itself and not a moving average or fibs. That's not to say they can't aid in the analysis, but pure price with horizontal and diagonal trend lines seems the most organic to me.

D


Yeah, I'm looking forward to getting back to that conversation. I just got home, not in conversation mode, but smiling.

You are right, absolutely. But price action is one window. It gives information, and best ability for inturpretting that in the world does not make that alone some variation of a holy grail.

What else can you see?

That is what wave analysis does.

I gotta go. My wife is my home.

 
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The minor trendline broke, the major held so far.



The chart above is a 120 minute. Below on the 15 minute there is a well defined local double bottom (green arrows) at a well defined SR area.

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I have not see a crude chart for awhile, but decided to watch today. Step one is complete, heavy volume has shown up on the 1 minute chart. The EIA is at 10:30am EST. There could be a lot of scrambling to get ahead of that. I like to let things sort themselves out on EIA day, and have not traded crude for awhile so am just relaxing into getting re-acquainted with my favorite instrument.

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