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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

  #701 (permalink)
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Volume cam in around the 618 of the minor wave, which was also the minor trendline, which caused me to add on.

 
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I moved my target down just so I can get proper geometry to the 8-range chart. The real target is still 1750, but not today. I may go flat at close and try for this same wave tomorrow.

 
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I am expecting price to blow stops above the high pivot at around 1722.3 before close

 
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Volume cam in around the 618 of the minor wave, which was also the minor trendline, which caused me to add on.

Gary, thanks for the posts and trade update. Just curious--when this last spike came in, did you not see that as possibility of sellers coming in and jeopardizing the long? I do not watch gold, but in watching ES the order flow at that time was quite bullish, and I wouldn't have shorted, but just curious about your thought process.

Also from the chart it appears you have the arrow on the wrong bar -- isn't the spike in volume on the short price bar? That would concern me a bit.

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Gary, thanks for the posts and trade update. Just curious--when this last spike came in, did you not see that as possibility of sellers coming in and jeopardizing the long? I do not watch gold, but in watching ES the order flow at that time was quite bullish, and I wouldn't have shorted, but just curious about your thought process.

Also from the chart it appears you have the arrow on the wrong bar -- isn't the spike in volume on the short price bar? That would concern me a bit.



Josh, I am venturing into unknown territory for myself. What I know I am succesful at is trading crude oil for 50-70 tick profits based on range charts and volume. But I have an obsession for becoming a longer timeframe trader and had enough sucess trading crude that I can finance my passion in this gold trade. I am using this not to make money, but to condition myself to relax more, have patience, assess the trade over a greater distance. I have followed so many waves that have worked exactly as expected, many of which have been mentioned on futures.io (formerly BMT), under separate threads. So I really can only tell you I am pursuing a wave 5 and that will have a lot of questionable moments along the way.

I am not really focusing on volume the same as if I was going for a smaller target. When gold just ran against me by 50 ticks, I added in at a possible support point, but I would have typically been out of that trade at around 20 ticks south.

The arrows I drew may have missed a bar, I just threw them up there to show what I was seeing.


Last edited by GaryD; November 29th, 2011 at 12:50 PM. Reason: typos
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  #706 (permalink)
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I am not really focusing on volume the same as if I was going for a smaller target. When gold just ran against me by 50 ticks, I added in at a possible support point, but I would have typically been out of that trade at around 20 ticks south.

Thanks Gary, much success to you in the trade and I'll be rooting for you my friend!

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Thanks Gary, much success to you in the trade and I'll be rooting for you my friend!


Here is a daily chart that shows the reward to risk

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What I did was wait until gold looked like it was turning up, and am tryiong to catch the ride without a stop below the low pivot.

 
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I may reduce to a single contract and move my stop to around 1660, but am really having a hard time with that decision.

 
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Trying to read whether I am stubborn, in denial, scared, confused, etc. is very different in this trade than in a small move. I don't remember where I heard this, but some trader said "the market will give you every opportunity to doubt yourself". I am hoping to get past that as a hindrance and to reinforce believing in a direction. Whether it will be a profitable direction for me remains to be seen, but I still hope to eventually conquer that part of my trading. If this trade is not it, I may move back to what I did all year before this, and take my 50 ticks for a few months. But I want to ride the bigger set and may get hammered a few times trying to figure out how to hang on.

 
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Nothing wrong with that Gary, -- twice yesterday I was stopped out to the tick because I got scared and moved the stop too closely. I have tried going for a walk just to get away from the screen when I put some trades on, it makes it so that I can't interfere. I'm sure you've done this before. May work well in a swing trade where fluctuations are greater.

No need to doubt yourself; you're a great trader and many thanks for giving us a glimpse into your trading mind.

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