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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

  #61 (permalink)
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Approaching area of interest for possible long entry

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I am looking for a long swing entry near the daily trendline. We had volume around 12:18 showing buyers are i the 91.20 area, which is very close to trendlinge support o the daily.

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We have just had the first sign of reversal, both on the 9 range (shown) and the 6 range.

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Took one contract off the table at 30 ticks, moved stop up on 2nd contract.

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tighten stops

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GREAT volume bar - hold this trade

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stop moved. 30 ticks in the bank, 12 tick risk

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I don't hold into the 2:30 close. stepping out of contract #2 at 16 ticks. Sorry guys, was not watching the clock that close when I took this. Net result was a win, but should be an interesting place for tomorrow.

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Nice job today @GaryD.

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Getting back to how this thread started, obviously I don't find the time to post every trade as saving the image file, logging onto the chart post website and posting, copying, writing a commentry, and posting in this thread takes time and attention away from what I really want to do, which is watch the trade more closely.

Since this thread started, the turning point for several very large waves have been shown in real time, some I caught, some I missed, some I just passed and regretted it later, some I caught and let go of too early... Keep in mind that I do this as a part of my own conditioning. But I have tried to expose all those flaws and successes, so some of you can see that trading is never perfect. You just say, so what, and wait for your next opportunity...

I have been a scalper, and had weeks of 80%-90% wins. I have traded profitably for 30 trading days in a row. I have backtested systems with 80%+ win rates. But with all of those experiences, I could always find some way to give back my gains. And that is why I finally started trying to ignore the "noise" and look for larger swings, roughly 50 ticks+. I previously posted an excel file that showed why I selected the 50 tick range (highest probability for my risk to reward comfort).

Today I'm going to show you what the performance report looks like from 7/23 through today, 8/3. I have attached a PDF. It's certainly not the best performance I have had in 6 trading days, But if it is higher than where I started more often that it is lower, that's all I need to keep moving forward.

I was out of town last Thursday and Friday, so even though we have had 8 trading days, this is only a 6-day record. I trade part time right now as I also run a business, and so I have to only take the trades in the times that I am able to monitor them.

As I said at the start, the win % does not have to be that impressive to make money trading. The way I have learned to make money consistently is by taking the better setups. Since the start of this thread on July 23, I have taken a total of 44 RTs, or roughly 7 trades per day. (Sometimes I will get in and then change my mind and wait for something better, which I don't consider a "trade", but NT does. I think it also count multi-contract as multiple trades? If I guessed my average "trade" per day is 2 or 3) Some were multiple contract trades, but the overwhelming majority are single contract trades. My win % on those is only 59%. Not that impressive as a stand alone number, but my average win is roughly 2x my average loss. For me, that is the only way that I have learned to consistently stay ahead.

I wish I could show a $1000+ trade, but did not catch one since I started this. But I will.


Some of the key points that I hope to emphasize by showing the reasons I am taking trades;

1) Always be aware of timeframes from 1 minute through daily or even weekly.

2) Always watch and interpret volume.

3) Always wait for confirmation of a trend reversal, instead of trying to pick the bottom.

4) Always know where the major pivots are and where the stop losses might be.

5) Always know what the overall market direction is.

6) Always review what the average motion for your market is.

7) Learn to interpret market strcture.

8) Learn how to use fibonacci ratios (my favorite book for studying the application of fibonacci "High Probability Trading Strategies" buy Robert Miner. He cuts it down to a select few).

9) Write on your charts. Show trendlines, give yourself written clues for what to watch for.

10 ) Practice, practice, practice. Get to where you can pretty much expect what the market will do next.


This has been an interesting experience for me. I'm not sure how much longer I will continue to post, as it definately makes it harder for me to trade succesfully. Just the effort of moving back and forth between screens takes away from the focus I would typically have on a trade. That is a very large factor in why I am doing almost exclusively single contracts. (I would typically trade up to 3) But, trading is hard, extremely hard, and we all need some sort of support occasionally. I hope these posts are helping some of you. And, if you see where I could improve, please don't hold back


Stay safe!

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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets-ninjatrader-performance-report.pdf  

Last edited by GaryD; August 3rd, 2011 at 08:36 PM. Reason: typos
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