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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

  #651 (permalink)
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Gold continues to hover in a minor symmetrical triangle around the 61.8% retracement of presumed wave 3. Looking back at presumed wave 1, it also struggled in this same area, noted by red arrows above the minor pivots.

If a wave 5 can take hold, the area of confluence for a wave 5 target has tightened nicely with the 100% APP of wave 1, the 61.8% of waves 1-3 and the 127% extrension of wave 4 congregating in an approximate 9 dollar range, very well-defined at this point.

There is now another well-defined resistance zone on the path of a potential wave 5, which is also the approximate area of a possible LSP, between 1755-1770.

 
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Gary, am working on releasing a new screenshot capture app for futures.io (formerly BMT) users (for Windows), will let you capture your screen, mark it up, and paste it on futures.io (formerly BMT) with one click instead of the many clicks it takes now. Just FYI. I will let you know when it is ready to test out. It will have trend lines, fibonacci, and other drawing and mark up tools built-in.

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That sounds incredibly cool. I've wondered if I am hogging your storage space with my 1000 chart images! I'm enjoying it either way. Thanks Mike.

 
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The Ichimoku chart shows that the lower end of the kumo has held for 5 trading days in a row.

 
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That sounds incredibly cool. I've wondered if I am hogging your storage space with my 1000 chart images! I'm enjoying it either way. Thanks Mike.

Don't worry about storage. v1.0 of the app will be for static screenshots, but the plan is to also add video capture for video journals, all one-click embedding into futures.io (formerly BMT) posts. Hopefully the v1.0 app will be out by Christmas, the video capture part will take longer.

I recognize screen shots and screen sharing are an integral part of the experience, which is why I am developing this special app.

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Gary, am working on releasing a new screenshot capture app for futures.io (formerly BMT) users (for Windows), will let you capture your screen, mark it up, and paste it on futures.io (formerly BMT) with one click instead of the many clicks it takes now. Just FYI. I will let you know when it is ready to test out. It will have trend lines, fibonacci, and other drawing and mark up tools built-in.

Mike

Mike,

that is very cool.

D

 
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The chart below has the addition of two different exhaustion fibs (the magenta and the bright green lines near the 61.8% of presumed W3) each derived from completely unrelated waves, which are adding strength to the case for this support zone.

The price action in the triangle is also resembling a bullish wedge.


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The main chart I use for entry on crude oil is a 6-range chart with 3 moving averages, but I never actually backtested those averages. I traded pure donchian channels without any moving averages for about a year on a 9-range crude chart, and then added moving averages visually until they did what I was looking for.

I later modified that to a 6-range, again tweaking the look until it did what I wanted to see, but not backtesting any of it. I tend to lean towards fibonacci numbers in moving averages, but have never really found that 55 and 89 performs any better that 50 and 90. I am not a huge fan of relying heavily on backtesting, but have spent probably thousands of hours doing it and I do agree it has a place in trading. There are systematic traders who may do extremely well with it, but I have chosen the path of discretionary trading and rely more on SR levels and volume than anything else.

However, the image below is an equity curve from a simple moving average crossover system on a crude 6-range. The entry and exit MA pairs are independent from each other, but other than that it is as simple as black box trading can get. It produced a very impressive equity curve. I may add some version of this to my charts this week.

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Here's the part that may be surprising;

The percentage profitable on this system is only 40.28%.

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There went the move I was looking for on Friday. Gold has busted out free of the triangle/bullish wedge. For a swing trade, the stage is set. The reward to risk is easy to define on this one, but he stop loss would be wide to have the best odds. I went for this same thing once before and was nailed on a wide stop. I can't count how many times I have been one day early on major pivots though, which may eventually prove to be a part of my confirmation process; did I get stopped out yesterday. lol!

Seriously, this is a good sign. The breakout out of this triangle/wedge is the market telling me something. Trying to pick the bottom doesn't get much better than this.

I have thought about taking this in the mini-sized contract so I can relax with the stop loss I think it deserves, if this is truly going to be a trade for 1830.

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Gary, what makes you think that 1710-1715 will not provide resistance again? I'm looking at ES and 1180 is the rough equivalent there of what you're showing here. Is it due to a gap up that you're really looking long? Would you rather see 1715ish broken up, or do you feel very confident in a long at this time?

 
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Here is a closeup at a 30 minute chart. There are most likely a string of stop loss orders above the recent high pivot, which could run even higher than shown. One thing is certain, this is not in a position to think shorting is a better trade.

I'll go one step further and say, at this point, with what trhe chart has in front of me, If gold can't get back below the 1670 pivot, shorting is not the correct direction overall until proven otherwise. This is not the pursuit of a scalp trade.

The task now is to choose where to enter long.

The cioces are endless; Now? With a stop below 1660? Tomorrow after the first volume confirmation? Or wait for a pullback after more confirmation? Or all three? Or skip the trade? If someone could just tell me that, I'd be forever grateful. I'm actually laughing at myself in an otherwise empty room. The entry may not matter?

Really, the entry does not matter, if it were not related to the size of the stop loss. Entry at 1720 with a stop below 1660, roughly $6,000.00 per contract stop loss? Crazy?

Trading one contract per $60,000.00 equity in GC, or $30,000.00 in QO (mini-sized, if my broker even offers it), would give a 10% drawdown risk. Buying at 1720 with a target of 1830 give an $11,000.00 reward, not even 2:1. I can make better money trading for 50 cents at a time than that. If the trade is about win/loss ratio, the entry to this trade needs to have a tighter stop loss. How do I safely get to 3:1 or better? I may go for multiple entries.

If I have a single $6,000.00 stop loss or (10) $600.00 stop losses, the math is the same. So, instead of a single loss, I like to go for the chance of hitting it on entry #1. It keeps me sharp. Get nailed 1st try, ouch. The next try better be more focused.

That is exactly why I study range charts; precision. The real market lives in 60 minutes and higher charts, but sometiimes microscopic is a good view to have.

I can't remember who said this, a semi-quote from some trader interview, something about scalping versus swing trading equates to "flying in and out like birds picking up breadcrumbs, as opposed to lying in the grass like a lion". Maybe the two should share notes?

Tomorrow. Patience. Trade the timeframe you know.


Last edited by GaryD; November 27th, 2011 at 11:27 PM. Reason: Additional comment
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