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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

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On a 9 range we have a minor double bottom

 
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If gold is going to find resistance, this would be a probable place based on a 60 minute view. Notice the prior support (green arrows) and resistance (red arrow). The minor trendline has been broken to the upside. Even if the 618 holds as minor resistance, I am still going to watch for a long entry on a pullback. If the 618 breaks, it will depend on the volume when it does.


Last edited by GaryD; November 23rd, 2011 at 02:21 AM.
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On a daily a 10 dollar range becomes nothing. Tough to swallow for a small range trader. But if I am hunting the big waves, this is where I have to look. I feel adrenaline. That minor double bottom earlier would have been incredibly tempting, but I was not watching then.

I'm going to sleep. Tomorrow should be whippy before Thanksgiving. Many professionals are already on vacation. The cools thing is, we have a defined area now in place. Can this bottom be defended? I am not willing to hold $10 of heat in a gold trade, so that bottom seems forever away. But the upside target could be far more than that. Maybe the overnight session will give something to hold onto. I prefer to watch a trade, right or wrong statistically, just because there are too many things that can go wrong while I sleep. A good night's rest can be an effective trading tool.

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David_R View Post
Gary,

The lines drawn in pink looks like it could be unfolding in 5 waves and the move up now could be a 4th with a 5th to come. Also, the wave 3 on your chart appears to be a two wave structure, not 5. Like I said before, I know enough to be dangerous, but just want to throw out another perspective.

D


I am not here to convice anyone. This is a journal. I post what I see. Without some sort of belief, how could I trade effectively?

I could go long, and you could go short, and we could both make money. Are you ready to bet all you have that it is not going up? Of course not. Why? Because neither of us know. We don't have crystal balls, we don't have holy grails.

Trading requires a "plan", but I don't believe that means you set a black box and go. Some follow E wave like the bible. If it works for them, they should stay with it. I have a plan for how I will execute, I have rules I will follow. The reason I am not long already, I have not decided what those rules are yet. I may know tomorrow.

I'm not in any hurry for this trade. I know that if I trade because I am scared I will miss something, my head is not in the right place. The more I want the money, the worse I trade. This setup for me is like a great hunt.

Gold is not my market, but I have traded it a lot previously. But, for the record, as of tonight, I am looking for a long. Tomorrow, we'll see...

Stay safe.

 
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Resistance did hold at the 618, nearly perfectly.

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And now, adding a fib retrace on the move up, price stopped at the 618 of that wave as well.

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Last edited by GaryD; November 23rd, 2011 at 10:48 AM.
 
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A daily chart may help put things into perspective as to why I would be looking for a long swing entry.

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Volume could be miserable today, and that can make defining market support very difficult.

 
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I am testing ichimoku, and price is currently at the lower end of the kumo.

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But when I expand that view forward, the kumo is weakening.

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It looks like those who took the long too early just got stopped out.

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The chart above is a 1 minute, now on the 60 minute below, notice that the volume spike corresponds to the prior low at the 618 a few hours ago.

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1697 would be a nice entry confirmation

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