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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets


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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

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  #531 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
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josh View Post
After just taking a 2 handle profit on a long on ES, with my target being 10, and then witnessing one of the easiest 10 point moves of my life without re-entering, I would like to chime in here.

The feeling is utter frustration--almost more so than getting stopped out and being dead wrong. To make it worse, it didn't even really pull back much. A stop trailed logically would have been just fine.


You should see how many trades I take that run 30-35 ticks in my direction and then turn on me for a small loss. I know some of them have been posted here. At one time, 30 ticks was larger than most of the profit targets I set. There have been plenty of days where if I had taken 20-25 ticks at a time I could have finished up 100, but instead ended the day at a loss.

Frustration, anger, disappointment, all of that is energy. When I feel those things I try to redirect them. I'll go the the gym or walk my dog ,and think through trading without a chart in front of me. Training myself to stop being afraid of giving up a small profit is something I really have worked hard at, and I am still fighting it.

Being a boxer and getting frustrated that the other guy keeps hitting you sounds silly. Being a trader and having a trade turn on you is not much different.

It sucks, I know. But change requires a catalyst, and so frustration leads to improvement.

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  #532 (permalink)
 josh 
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Thanks Gary -- I did say that I would almost rather take a loss, but of course that's silly and not really true. I'll take 2 handles in ES any day over a loss, even if it does go 10! Thanks for your encouragement!

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 bluemele 
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GaryD View Post

Being a boxer and getting frustrated that the other guy keeps hitting you sounds silly. Being a trader and having a trade turn on you is not much different.

This is why I could never box, wrestle or do MMA competitively! I get angry... haha..

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 GaryD 
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bluemele View Post
This is why I could never box, wrestle or do MMA competitively! I get angry... haha..

Anger is energy too. Don't waste it.

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 GaryD 
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Edit 8:59pm EST

I apologize that this after the fact commentary does not help with real time trading. I posted several charts this morning without saying anything about them. But, with the exception of a few traders who I see checking in regularly, the late comments still apply to what the setup was and why the trade was taken.

The chart above is a daily view (1440 minute) of crude oil. Crude is very obviously in an uptrend, but is nearing a well defined area of anticipated resistance. However, until it gets there, I am going to trade with the belief that it still has room to go, and so I was only looking for a long trade this morning. The blue horizontal lines showed a few areas of interest for support, but the only thing on the chart that seemed to be incredibly clear was the resistance area, and so that was the only one I really defined for myself this morning. If we got there, I was looking to go short. if not, I was going to let the market tell me where support might be.

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 GaryD 
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9:05pm EST commentary


The second shart posted this morning was a 60 minute. I had commented on this channel a few days ago. The response has been nearly flawless, and so it has a dominant position on my screens lately. price does not always get to the extremes, so I watch for it to get close, then turn attantion to a volume analysis chart. Even if crude were to make a direct hit, I would still need some reversal confirmation. And, if we could see a solid close below the bottom of this channel, that could be a strong statement as well.

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 GaryD 
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I added a couple support zones later in the morning, but never really felt that strong about either of them. support could have come in a number of places. Today I just defined two to have something to lean against if or when I took a trade.

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 GaryD 
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Watching for possible long entry at support.



9:10pm EST edit

This is as good as I got at any setup commentary this morning. Not a lot of fluff there. In my mind, the charts posted before this were enough to state I was going long today, but probably not that obvious to anyone but me. Looking back atthe day's price action, today there really was no "right" direction, as there were basically equal short opportunities. I did catch two longs, but exitted both prematurely upon seeing things I did not like. I realize that is not a scientific way to trade, and have not tracked it but probably leave money on the table quite often exitting for the same reasons as today.

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 GaryD 
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9:14pm EST edit

This was the first sign of what I was watching for. I used to do a lot of offshore fishing, and this is somewhat analogous to seeing birds hitting the water off in the distance. There may or may not be fish, but it catches my attention and it is time to get ready. Notice the 2000+ volume on a 1 minute. This something to take notice of. heavy participation at any certain price area is one of the first things I look for before taking nearly every trade. 97.30 to 97.50 had a lot of activity.

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 GaryD 
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The 6 range is my #1 entry chart. Not because it backtested well, or that I have any real proof that it is better than any other. But, I have tried nearly every combination out there, and this one works for me. My primary enrty rule is, I must have a reversal signal on either a 6 range (shown above when the price break through two of three MAs, and the bars turn white, which is simply another type of MA cross). When that occured I was "buy ready". My preferred entry is at one of the donchian channels, but today I was a little hesistant about trying to catch the bottom, as the reversal was not that strong, and so waited until it got some distance above the DCs before I entered. I know that backtesting shows better reward to risk at the DCs, but backtesting is not everything. I waited for the 2nd hit and bounce of the DC before I entered today.

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