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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

  #491 (permalink)
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Support caught a little higher than forecast, at 95.22

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David_R View Post
Gary, what did you see that told you short positions were building up?

Also, in your screen shot of the trade results with only 20% winners, what is the strategy? If its to hold winners and get the big swings I would think that would be a with trend method at S/R and the % would be higher, but not the case. Interesting results.

Thanks for your posts.

David


I have no way to prove this, other than my personal experience, but when I see the followng occur I assume that short positions are going to form around the perceived double top. Here is a 60 minute chart showing the potential double top forming. This chart only runs through November 5th so I can point this out a little better.

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If you were wanting to take a short position, this might seem like a good place to do it with a high reward to risk ratio. The stop los point seems well defined, and it seems obvious that this is where seller were coming in. It was also the lower edge of a defined resistance zone.



Now, below I have zoomed in on a 10 minute chart to show the overnight activity. Notice how many times price turned at that area. (I left the blue line from the prior chart for reference. Selling was occuring there, over and over. So of that is obviously distribution, but some is also speculation on the short side. When resistance looks too obvious and the trend is in the opposite direction, I often watch for the stop losses to blow before I take a trade. Sellers are still there, and will often jump on the new high price and heavy volume that the blowing of stops offers.

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Now, to finish it, below is a 1 minute chart with a simple volume indicator. Stops blew.

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Notice how price then moved higher, but volume fell off. The trigger for me to enter short was the 9 range chart shown below. See the significant divergence?

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David_R View Post
Gary, what did you see that told you short positions were building up?

Also, in your screen shot of the trade results with only 20% winners, what is the strategy? If its to hold winners and get the big swings I would think that would be a with trend method at S/R and the % would be higher, but not the case. Interesting results.

Thanks for your posts.

David


That first answer took so long I forgot about the second part...

That strategy is a variation on overbought/oversold conditions, the theory being that price can only move in one direction for so long. The $100.00 stop loss is set to help show where that point is. I believe that was crude on a 480 minute chart with a 3 period RSI, 90 OB / 10 OS, 2 bar confirmation.

I have not gotten comfortable trading 20% odds, but have been surprised many times by finding a strategy with high percentage wins that cannot beat the risk/reward of one with a much lower win percentage. Being "right" is not necessarily the most important aspect of trading.

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I realize this post is a little too late, but I was on the phone and took it a few minutes ago. I am posting on a 1 minute chart because that is where the decision was made to enter. This range bound market is tough to find and reversal confirmation, so my other charts all say "up"

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closed at +2

 
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I hope this trade works out for you Gary, but in watching ES, it looks like they want to establish value up here. I fear for the shorts at this moment. I have no idea what CL is doing or how closely it's tracking with ES but looks pretty close probably. Hope it works out my friend!!

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closed at -11

 
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josh View Post
I hope this trade works out for you Gary, but in watching ES, it looks like they want to establish value up here. I fear for the shorts at this moment. I have no idea what CL is doing or how closely it's tracking with ES but looks pretty close probably. Hope it works out my friend!!


yes, I was not really sure about it after it came back.

 
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I have two areas I am watching.

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