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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

  #471 (permalink)
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I ran a 6 range and a 3 minute side-by-side this week, and like the motion of the 3 minute. I always found the divergence to be much better on the 9 range anyway, so having both seems somewhat redundant.

I actually have more belief in time based charts that in range based, but have been using range to see overall trend shifts. This version is an attempt to remove yet another chart from the screen. I am hoping to combine volume analysis and get a better single-view chart out of this in the weeks to come. Simplify.


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I have used this week of getting re-oriented to try a little backtesting of indicators I am not familiar with. One that was profitable just as default is the "Ultimate Oscillator" on crude time based charts. Simple buy/sell crossing the 50. I have run several tests to define certains areas to explore, and that is the blue line indicator posted earlier on one of the minute charts. I labeled "Divergence" on it, but can't say whether that is a good use for it as I have not looked for that. Here are a few settings that worked right out of the box (I tweaked the default setting just slightly to 5/14/26 or 5/14/30);

1) 15 minute, buy crossing 40, sell crossing 50 (1.29 profit factor)

2) 5 minute, buy crossing 50, sell crossing 50 (1.6 win to loss ratio)

3) 10 minute, buy crossing 40, sell crossing 60 (60% profitable)


Those are with no proft targets or stop losses, no trend indicators, just pure one-indicator buy/sell.

 
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Hey Gary, good to see you back!

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  #474 (permalink)
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Crude has to break above 95.70 to be out of this resistance area. We just saw a lot of short positions build, and then blow stops, so now may be the time to watch for a potential reversal with a high reward to risk.

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Resistance and support are not walls to defend your position. They are areas of interest to be aware of what occurs there. Crude should show what it's intentions are in this area.

 
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2:47PM COMMENTARY

The reasoning behind this trade;

1) We were in a very well defined area of possible resistance.
2) The low end of resistance had held repeatedly, which casued stops to build up above. When the high-volume 1 minute bar showed probable stops blowing, that was the sign that we were seeing possible exhaustion. (shown earlier this morning)
3) The 9-range showed significant divergence, as highlighted by the angled red line on the momentum indicator above.


Last edited by GaryD; November 7th, 2011 at 03:51 PM. Reason: Add info after trade
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took off 2 contracts at +20

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stop tightened on remaining 2

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3rd contract off at +50, will hold final at breakeven.

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