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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

  #461 (permalink)
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sysot1t View Post
btw, from your chart comments... there is only one A during the day... I also noticed that you trade 1m charts... so unles price traded for half the OR above/below the A, it wasnt a confirmed A.. an A-up didnt really take place until mid-afternoon.. the rest was just range trading..


1 ) Correct, there is only one A up or A down in a day. I use OR of 8.30 to 9.15 eastern time. My time filter for confirmation is 20 minutes. 2 cyan lines represents OR. Majority of traders in my experience use 5 to 10 minutes OR.
1 minute chart is my execution chart.

2) Before A up confirmation of A up in mid afternoon, per my rules there were couple of trades.

a) Short against failed A up ( price staying below upper cyan line).

b) Long against failed A down ( price failed to break below lower cyan line).

c) Finally A up confirmation in mid afternoon for longs.

With 30 days number line of 9 in the background, ACD traders were not surprised by the strength of the move.

Glad to finally met someone who trades CL using ACD system.

Thx.

 
  #462 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
1 ) Correct, there is only one A up or A down in a day. I use OR of 8.30 to 9.15 eastern time. My time filter for confirmation is 20 minutes. 2 cyan lines represents OR. Majority of traders in my experience use 5 to 10 minutes OR.
1 minute chart is my execution chart.

2) Before A up confirmation of A up in mid afternoon, per my rules there were couple of trades.

a) Short against failed A up ( price staying below upper cyan line).

b) Long against failed A down ( price failed to break below lower cyan line).

c) Finally A up confirmation in mid afternoon for longs.

With 30 days number line of 9 in the background, ACD traders were not surprised by the strength of the move.

Glad to finally met someone who trades CL using ACD system.

Thx.

I prefer BRN, not CL... but yes... on CL, the unconfirmed attempt to A-down against a PVR(since the A-down line was engulfed by it), should have been a signal to scalp for a long in the morning and entering the trade with a small posistion, after all, the stop was known... and then adding to that position in the afternoon... but again, I dont trade CL.. I only trade EU markets and their hours...

 
  #463 (permalink)
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I think we have successfully chased @GaryD away.

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  #464 (permalink)
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bluemele View Post
I think we have successfully chased @GaryD away.

I hope not. I still need to learn a lot. I think he has been travelling.

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  #465 (permalink)
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I have been traveling for the past 3-4 weeks and have not even opened a chart or read trade news until this weekend. I have missed a lot of trading action over the past month. I have no idea what the news has been, or why crude has done what it has, but my first take tonight is if I was trading live, I would be looking for a long entry in one of the three support zones shown above. I probably won't trade live for another week or so, I feel somewhat alienated from the markets right now. But I will get back into simulated trading most likely on Monday morning.

Crude looks like it may have found it's base and had a great divergence bottom recently, but a long in the area of Friday's close has some resistance to break through. Sunday overnight could change that. I did read some interesting trade articles recently, one from Ed Seykota where he commented he liked to enter a trade where a lot of traders would think the market has exhausted itself. From that take, maybe this is the place to go long? Maybe next year, after I digest that comment...

If I have missed posts or comments I apologize. If I can't focus for an extended period I have learned not to even try, so I avoid being tempted to pass up something that appears "too good". I did receive some emails from posts I subscribe to, some of it criticism. My method is not for everyone, and my style is not perfect. When I get caught up I will get through the comments and see if anything constructive comes from it.

I did some solid backtesting for the past 24 hours or so and have some old charts I have brought back up. May not keep them on the screen after this week, but searching for a solid foundation after so much time away.

What has been nice about such a break was that even without a chart, I thought about the psychology of trading nearly every day at some point, and had some advances in understanding myself which I expect will benefit my trading. Most enlightening was an insight into why I was never content to trade for 10-15% annual returns. It is obvious that drive has been a destructive force in the past, but it also provided the tenacity to keep going when I felt broken and exhausted. It was an all or nothing pursuit for me, whether that mindset is right or wrong, and "nothing" is the easier of the two...

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  #466 (permalink)
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  #467 (permalink)
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GaryD View Post
And just becasue the confluence just keeps coming, here is the same chart with two more fib additions that fall right in the middle of the previous mix;

1) The displaced exhaustion alternate from possible wave 1 down (April-June 2011)
2) An exhaustion extention from the same presumed wave 1

And for fun, the white line is the 200 week EMA

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That sure was a good zone. Why don't they stand out so strong in real time

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  #468 (permalink)
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josh View Post
Gary, this is my 60m chart and the zone I drew last night (shaded in blue). It is primarily based on the POC of the entire down move, good to see that your confluence zones line up with what I have here, though after the strength today I'll be careful with shorting.

EDIT: for any pivot followers, the weekly pivot is right there as well. Also looks like the red lines I drew (again, based solely on the profile) also are very similar to the lines you have above (except maybe the top one). Interesting how different methods of analysis can have similar targets.


I studied some on the POC, but never went very far with it. It was Larry Levine's course, and they also had a heavy emphasis on volume ladders and pivot points, but it got very hard on my eyes to follow their method the way they recommended. It felt trance-like. Have you seen his stuff? What I really liked the most from him was the mental training and visualization more than the indicators, but I would believe his method works.

If you found the same zones through other means, as you mentioned, that only adds strength to the trade. I can't provide any proof to this theory, but a belief I have is that when you start getting an overwhelming amount of confluence from technical analysis, what adds so much strength to it is that that means more and more traders are going to be looking at the same area. Some focus on fibonnaci, others on pivot points, others on different timeframes, and when they all say roughly the same thing, we get volume participation in that area and it fulfills itself, at least short to mid term.

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  #469 (permalink)
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The case for "up" being the correct direction;

Crude completed a somewhat awkward 5WM, ending in a double bottom (green arrows), then raced back above the previous major high pivot (red arrow). That high was also an area of interest in that it was a prior major double bottom and the neckline of a prior major H&S (blue arrows). Crude also broke the downward red trendline.

There are several potential areas for support. If crude can make a move down and then re-establish an upward momentum, that will help give more clarity to the potential future structure.

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The chart above is from a post last week. Support 1 has held so far, and crude is once again in the overhead resistance area.

Below is today's chart. Long is still the correct direction of the moment, but the 93 shows an overbought condition with momentum divergence. Short term support seems to be creeping up, but defined resistance continues to loom overhead, so price should get a lot of pressure from both sides in this area.

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