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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

  #441 (permalink)
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Caught another 13 ticks. Out again.

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  #443 (permalink)
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I am feeling that I missed the better entry, fading the minor double-top around 78.60, and am going to sit out the rest of the afternoon. Regardless of whether this is a great short oportunity of not, my feelings are not coinciding with it right now.

Picked up 114 ticks on the way up, and another few coming back down. Going to see how this afternoon plays out and start fresh in the morning.

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I know the feeling...I had my trailing stop too tight and missed 2/3rds of it. Done until tomorrow!

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greenr View Post
is this what your looking at buddy??

Attachment 50844

No, the divergence you highlighted is not enough on that chart. I'm not a huge fan of divergence trades as it tends to lead you to pick tops and bottoms, but significant divergence is another story, particularly in a well defined zone, which we were in.

I would have taken this trade this morning, but it happened so fast that I was not even able to post the chart before it had turned 50-70 cents. After it moved that far I was not really sure where to place my stop, so decided to walk away instead of trade on adrenaline. But had I caught the trade in the zone it would have been a great one with minimal risk.

Below is what I was referring to.

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I know the feeling...I had my trailing stop too tight and missed 2/3rds of it. Done until tomorrow!

This type of volatility is very tough to use a trailing stop in. This straight up, straight down behavior will find your stop most of the time.

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GaryD View Post
Most instruments are down, there is a lot of fear in the markets right now. I am watching to see if crude can find support in this area of previous major support. (76.00 - 78.00). If it can, there are most likely a lot of short positions that will get nervous. The trend is obviously down, so buying is countertrend.

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This long trade worked well today. I did not take time to post because I have been out of town for several days and was really looking forward to keeping my mind focused. Countertrend trades make me a little more nervous than trend trades, and I dropped this one I believe 3 times before I finally decided to hang on. +10 ticks, - 5 ticks, - 1 tick and so forth (not actual, but close to what I remember). Like trying to grab a hot potato. But when the 10am news came out and the S&P exploded, I knew the odds were very good that crude shorts were next to go.

Going countertrend is a tough trade to take because it usually feels so wrong. Many times I find that the "right" direction feels like it is being fought the whole time, until it finally reaches a point and then all of sudden the motion gets easy. And, when it starts to move freely, that is when I start looking to get out.

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GaryD View Post
Going countertrend is a tough trade to take because it usually feels so wrong. Many times I find that the "right" direction feels like it is being fought the whole time, until it finally reaches a point and then all of sudden the motion gets easy. And, when it starts to move freely, that is when I start looking to get out.

Yeah, isn't it funny that many times the best trade is the one which feels fighting at the beginning. When I think a setup looks 'easy', it's really NOT many times. Often times 'too obvious' trade setups are traps or just take your stops before running to anticipated direction.

This thread is real good stuff, Gary - keep going :-)

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Just food for thought. I connected to Kinetick to get some historic perspective on where the markets are right now. If you saw the chart below and it was a 30 minute chart of whatever, what would you expect to occur going forward? I would think, we just had a double top followed by a failed third attempt. This market is going lower and will possibly take out the prior major low.

What makes it tough to imagine that outcome though, is that this is a weekly chart of the S&P500 going back to 1999. Is the bottom really dropping out? Or is this one giant bear trap? For my style of trading, it really doesn't matter that much, as in between there will most likely be many tradeable rises and falls along the way of whatever path the market chooses. But, purely from a chart perspective...

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Switching to the futures version of the S&P, still on a weekly chart, here is the other side of the story;

There is a fairly well defined confluence zone for support, which was derived by the following;

1) 78.6 retracement of the most recent major wave up (July 2010 - April 2011)
2) Exhaustion alternate of the previous major wave down ( April 2010 - July 2010)
3) 127 extension of the most recent wave up (August 2011 - September 2011)
4) 618 APP of possible wave A (July 2011-August 2011)

If that area were to be reached, and then to hold, it could turn out to be the end of corrective wave C, which could be part of a larger wave 4 in a 5WM up. That would then give the expectation of wave 5 taking out the high above 1356.

But, unless and until it turns, there is no doubt today's trend is down.

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