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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
I had assumed I would be a buyer today, but I have caught myself not only questioning, but even going against my own setups in the past week. Not a good practice.
Price held in between two areas I was watching, but. I was concerened about weak volume. Instead of buying the open, as I might have done previously, I saw the trend change to up, but just watched it, up to the first major resistance area. I shorted instead at that area, and took a loss, and then scalped my way back to finish -3 ticks for the day.
I had the right direction last night, but my lack of trust I have created, not related to any setups or SR, but related to position size, has jumbled things in my actions. And I see it very clearly, but only after the fact.
@Big Mike mentioned stepping away from the charts, and maybe I see why. I noted that last week I was more countertrend as well, almost as if I expect to be wrong and am planning for it?
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
I just caught that. What a weird place to get to, to have some conversation in my head convincing me to do the opposite of what I think is happening? I know for sure that is a losing strategy. Wow. Amazed at what the mind does all by itself.
I started out shorting crude after the first test of resistance. Then when the 9:30 open showed the S&P and the euro were falling hard, I went in heavier assuming crude would follow. It didn't and I was stopped out of a max contract position. I was "max down", and am supposed to quit.
But I saw something, and felt the alignment was enough to break the rules with intention today. When crude broke above it's prior high, in completely the opposite direction of the other two markets, I went long max contract this time. I figured if crude could deny the other market's, it must have shorts really surprised. The trade just felt right, so out of the usual that it made perfect sense. I wound up making back my loss and then some.
No, it is not in line wiht my plan. But no, I do not feel it was trading poorly. I saw something that I felt very strongly about. Very strong, not just a "setup".
This is why i don’t watch any market correlation or negative correlation any more, i used to use the DX as negative correlation. Obviously Oil is traded in $ so if the DX is going short the CL should be going long. This works on some days when the correlation is strong but on the days it was not it completely threw me out of balance and for this reason i never will use it again.
Just my world on the matter
" I will follow my rules, I will take my stops, I will be disciplined and i will work with the market....NOT AGAINST IT! Professional mind control is the key"
When ES and 6E were pegged to the floor, and CL shot straight up above the opening high, there was a very obvious disconnect. That meant possibly two things; 1) that there were other factors at work causing crude to move up, and 2) that the inverse motion would cause a lot of traders to get caught on the wrong side.
