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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

  #4201 (permalink)
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I want to catch all these inredible moves, sell at the tip top, buy at the very bottom, because I study it so much. In my mind, that is where I think I should eventually get. From a risk to reward, makes a hell of a lot of sense.

There is a discussion of luck here on futures.io (formerly BMT), and someone posted a story of a guy who basically does options on "black swan" events. That is the far extreme of RR. What I see as my goal is far closer to probable.

But really, it doesn't matter. Whatever way I make money, consistently, that makes sense to me...

Today, I wait for the outer extremes to come and go, by waiting I am more certain. I prefer for someone else to show the move, and I just agree with it. My place in this market is not to lead.

Today I traded very well. For me.

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arjfca View Post
Ken, I like this idea. Yes I also realize that sometime I do cheat on my rules as I have nobody to justify my act. This is a psychological event that I need to be confront with.

I love the idea of talking about trading issues. It helps me to feel like the feelings are normal, part of the process.




arjfca View Post

Gary: good luck in your new project. Sorry to have used your private journal space

Martin

Martin, this is for whoever wants to be here. I knew that going in. If I had intended it to be private, I sure made a wrong turn somewhere.

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  #4203 (permalink)
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Tough day to believe it.

 
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GaryD View Post
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From a purely technical perspective, that is significant resistance. A channel breakout failure would be one interesting "washout".



Believe. If I would take these trades, and not be so afraid to be wrong.

I traded well, but so timid, tiny pieces here and there. I think 28 ticks was my biggest win. I see the wave shift, and then believe the odds are with me for little moves.

I need some rule for staying in, but never can find one that makes sense to me. I have tried SuperTrend, Gann Hi Lo, Channels, etc. But watching volume is the only thing that feels like I am understanding what is happening now, not some random math formula.


Last edited by GaryD; September 13th, 2012 at 03:40 PM.
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  #4205 (permalink)
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GaryD View Post
Believe. If I would take these trades, and not be so afraid to be wrong.

I traded well, but so timid, tiny pieces here and there. I think 28 ticks was my biggest win. I see the wave shift, and then believe the odds are with me for little moves.

I need some rule for staying in, but never can find one that makes sense to me. I have tried SuperTrend, Gann Hi Lo, Channels, etc. But watching volume is the only thing that feels like I am understanding what is happening now, not some random math formula.

steidlmayer agrees with you.
cool. so use what you like and understand. volume. Trade from one volume node to the next.

Steidlmayer Volume Strips: J. Peter Steidlmayer

Enter on volume like you do but hold on in the direction you are looking for an equal amount of volume...or a place where the volume relationship is the same (high node) Sort of like market profile but broken down into more intra-day volume nodes. For example is a volume higher than the 3 to either side of it in both directions but in a cumulative grouping at that price level for that day.

Here's a few days this week in crude. (this is spot so I have crap crude volume. you should be able to get better info.) I marked the high volume node on the 10th and on the 11th. Enter on the 1171 volume number on the 10th and hold until you get that again in your direction which happened the next day. Looks like about 80 pips from middle to middle.

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or do this in the middle of the day from volume node to volume node.

just an idea. Not trying to send you off to indicator junction. Just saying to use what you have maybe in a different way then you have thought about it before.

smaller time frame example

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some more info
http://www.trading-naked.com/in-step-with-markets.htm

“Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind.” - Dr. Seuss

Last edited by websouth; September 13th, 2012 at 06:11 PM.
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  #4206 (permalink)
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websouth View Post
steidlmayer agrees with you.
cool. so use what you like and understand. volume. Trade from one volume node to the next....

...just an idea. Not trying to send you off to indicator junction. Just saying to use what you have maybe in a different way then you have thought about it before.


Thanks. The understanding comes in "waves". Sometimes intentionally, sometimes by accident, sometimes from traders like you.

The volume reading has taken years to really get something from it. High volume breaks, high volume stop, low volume tests, "scared" floating / leaking volume, volume I do not want any part of like much of today.

 
  #4207 (permalink)
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I type things lately, and then erase them and close this window. I started to comment on resistance maybe showing up lower this morning, and then just closed futures.io (formerly BMT) and traded instead. I sometimes think I am purging the last bit of talk out of myself.

I prefer trading with nothing else going on, just waiting to be done with it for the day. My schedule here has allowed me to wake up, trade the morning, then take a shower and head out for the day. And I might just be starting to like it that way.

If I did not feel a need to prove something to myself about making up for whatever went wrong. My talk of "letting go" was aimed more towards allowing my trades to run, but as I have found with many of the thoughts that have run through my mind, the words may be right, but the meaning is often wrong.

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10pm Thursday after the 3rd QE, had shut my NT down early today and just re-opened, and felt this feeling of... not sure, maybe similar to being a kid and walking in on Santa Claus.

Maybe just like that, it is a make-believe zone I have drawn on my chart, to have something to believe in. But believe I do.

If price turns here I am paying attention.

 
  #4209 (permalink)
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One price i have been looking at for weeks now!

$100 a barrel

Traders are itching to test it, this week we have been creeping

Will we see a rally or a rejection

All i know is crude has gone cold turkey and is itching to test $100

Rember out post in June when we were testing $78`s.........

Lets but 1000000 contracts and wait for $100

We would have been extremely rich PIMP`s now

" I will follow my rules, I will take my stops, I will be disciplined and i will work with the market....NOT AGAINST IT! Professional mind control is the key"
 
  #4210 (permalink)
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greenr View Post
One price i have been looking at for weeks now!

$100 a barrel

Traders are itching to test it, this week we have been creeping

Will we see a rally or a rejection

All i know is crude has gone cold turkey and is itching to test $100

Rember out post in June when we were testing $78`s.........

Lets but 1000000 contracts and wait for $100

We would have been extremely rich PIMP`s now

Oh yes, go back to my comments on the 5wm and then double bottom in crude. But did I buy 50 contracts and hold on? The answer is easy now.

I was sitting with a friend who knows nothing about trading, switched to Kinetick and showed him a weekly chart of crude. I said, "Let's pretend I decided to learn to trade in January 2008. My teacher says, buy when this crosses that, sell on the opposite. And I started with $250k, went in 1 per $10k..."

And showed him how dumb luck could have made millions. Long, and then short.

That happens sometimes.

But what I become more drawn to as I progress, is what happens on a regular basis.

I showed my friend where I sold today. He said, "That's it? But I thought you sold when this happened and bought when that?"

That's part of it, yes.

Find your place, swing $100, you never know.


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