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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

  #4031 (permalink)
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If the higher time 5WM is going to hold, and the local DB intermediate 5WM is not going to manifest, then, the 2nd test of the ETH trendline could signal the top of W2, or, I was taught to view a 786 as interchangeable with a DT/DB.

And, since I keep expecting a breakdown in ES, that was enough to shake me out.


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Last edited by GaryD; September 4th, 2012 at 05:11 PM.
 
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6E also had a retest of the major trendline

 
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scalped +16 short

 
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Some day, I swear, I will reverse instead of exit... The bar circled above is the one I did not like and caused me to close.


Last edited by GaryD; September 4th, 2012 at 05:14 PM.
 
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Buyers still like 95.00. 2nd WOB of the day...

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scalp 13 long

 
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lancelottrader View Post
I don't see the reason for all the inner conflict. Some days the market conditions lend themselves to scalping..Other days, there are conditions that warrant holding trades for bigger moves. You obviously have the ability to scalp and catch runners. Why denigrate yourself for scalping when the only thing that matters is the end results . The real secret to this is determining what the prevailing market conditions are for a given day and utilizing the appropriate strategy for those conditions. Some days should be scalped..other days the trades can be held longer.



Thanks for the support. Without the outside input I might have quit journaling awhile back. Whether I get advice, or give advice, or just leave a description of the changes that go on in one trader's mind, so possibly someone else down the road does not feel so screwed up for having all of this inner conflict...

Yes, scalping has it's place, and some days it may be the best thing going. But I am going on over a year now of debating whether or not I can go to trading full time. The arguments I have for and against it in my mind are getting old to me. I seem stuck in a rut of what I find "comfortable", but I also believe I am doing it at the expense of moving forward.

If I did not have this hard push going on within myself to hold trades for longer than I do, I would be a happy little scalper. But today, where I am and where I think I want to be, scalping can be a weakness. Depending on how and why I do it.

I was in a long this morning, peeled out of it and held one. And watched it get into the 40+ profit area, then come back on me. I closed +29, which could be seen as failing to hold, but that to me is different. I saw something that could have been a sell trigger for me, had I been flat and looking to short the market. Getting out "early" is a tough thing to define. What is "early"? It depends on what is happening. And that exit today is the kind of benefit I am happy to maintain from knowing how to scalp.

But, the trades from last month that I looked over this weekend showed me something other than confidence or skill. They showed someone who was gun shy, timid, taking trades for money that are not exactly good trades. 6ticks? I know for an absolute fact that I never have a 6-tick stop loss. I do not go in any less than 10, 12, 15, and even that is tight for where my stop bar rests. I close early a lot, and may close -6 if I see something, but that is not the pattern that last month's trading reflected. What I saw was "trigger happy", and the more I went back and analyzed my trades, there more sure I was of it.

I am actually afraid of burning into my psyche that scalping as a preferred method is "good", particularly when I am not doing it in a manner that I find commendable. It feels comfortable. I can make money a lot of the time. And that becomes addicting. And, it holds me down from doing some other things that I want to integrate into my trading.

I do not desire to eliminate small targets, I feel they are what keeps me alive to some degree. But when I see 500 trades versus 10, or whatever the ratio was, there is no way I was trading the way I want to be. Backsliding even.

Being too quick to exit is my number one issue I have with myself, and I am continuing to drive it into my automatic behavior. I was trained, by others and by myself, to get in and out fast. There are a lot of reasons... small risk, instant gratification. Number one may be that trading educators can keep an audience more entertained that way. It is good for sales.

I take myself out of so many good trades that would produce 2x, 4x, 6x of what I receive from them, and it is not that those targets are something I don't expect. I feel I know better, or I should know better, and I feel sometimes like I will not step up and take more responsibility for my trading. And what keeps me from doing it, I think, is fear.

I do not completely accept the risk or the reward of many trades I take. And the only way I will ever be able to truly add swing trading to my regular arsenal is by learning to do just that. And I trade the growth of that ability, for $100 here and there, month after month.

The flip side, if I do not manage a trade, actively, I do not do as well.


I really am just journaling my own frustrations with my own inner progress. Not really even looking for feedback most of the time anymore. Not that I mind it, it is good to have company. I am trying to wake myself up, and this is where I do it. Ugly at times. Painful. I feel I take the role of master and student with myself, and the student is very stubborn sometimes.

Because of my time spent this weekend that showed me something I was not even paying attention to while it was happening, and the self-criticism that I felt was appropriate, I traded differently today. I could see it very clearly. Today is much more the way I would like to trade.

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Daytrader50 View Post
GARY AND ALL,

Many of us need a move of 20,sometimes 40 pips before we can confirm, be it a by a moving average or 2 higher lows that a trend actually is in place. The frustration of thE er/usd this whole month is we dont even get a 40 pip straight move all day and night. And then "if" we get it, but it seems this august to have come at some early oddball hour like 11"30pm est and there is nothing but sideways action till next day. Look at tonight,perfect example. Its 6:30am...end of the 3 day weekend...where was the rush of money flowing into Forex between 2-5am we always get? On a long weekend yet! I sware I will never complain if we go back to the times of rediculous viotility, where it6 takes 3 stop outs to catch your train, i wont complain. But something is changing in the markets, all of em. Cant you guys smell it!??? Looks to me like we are going to see a lot of "pro" traders going broke, being shaken out, not by bad plays but by waiting for moves that no longer happen with enough regularity to make trading profitable. We will see a shakeout of people going back to work again....(creating more strain on our supposed healthy economy) and then maybe in a year or 2, markets will become wild ,erratic and a new breed will come forth. WHY DO ALL OF YOU NOTICE SO MANY MORE VENDORS AND PEOPLE TEACHING "because they love teaching" more now that ever before? Cause the prose are making so little it aint even worth it. Just my 2 cents.

I can't count the number of moves I missed due to overnight.


I have not been at this long enough to have an opinion on something changing. I am still soaking up what is going on in real time, so it just feels normal to me.

Possibly what happens, is the movement is constantly changing? We think we have it down, and then it just changes again? Not sure, but I'll find out in 10 years or so. Still getting into the rhythm of what is today.

The "ain't even worth it" comment. There is one of my main complaints with scalping for small ticks. So many dollars turning over, so much risk layered time and time again, for something thought of as having so little potential? CL will at least move 20 ticks, even if it is sitting still.

 
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josh View Post
The short of it is that in NT I do have a 30 minute chart up with RTH volume profiles, using the GomMP indicator, based on tick data, so I don't have to fiddle with recording. I have tried the footprint/ladder and find it a waste of time for me personally. It is essentially redundant information, and focusing on this causes me to lose focus on other things which are actually important to me. However, all anyone can do is try it and see how you like it; who knows, maybe it will be your favorite tool.

What you will find if you plot volume at price over a region is that the prices with the lowest volume will often align with areas of support and resistance on the price chart. The logic should be clear why, as the edges of a range are just that--edges, which are quickly rejected, thus trading very little volume at these edges. I won't go into a big spiel about auction market theory and how profiles can be interpreted, as you probably know much of this. I try to simply see volume profile for what it is: a histogram that shows how much volume traded in the past at each price.

It is simply another way to view or map the market, much like using price for support and resistance, EW, Gann, or anything else. One of the reasons I do not rely heavily on volume profiles beyond an intraday basis is that it heavily weights the RTH hours for an instrument, due to heavy volume during regular hours. However, when a market like CL is not trading, it is being influenced heavily by other world markets--lack of overnight volume does not make the market any harder to move, in fact it's much easier! So, I do not plot long-term profiles very often due to the fact that I feel overnight price levels are almost as important as RTH price levels. I posted about this in the volume profile thread I think, but I am getting too tangential here.

The other day I was reading some writings by Wyckoff from 1932. I could not help but smile as he plotted his point and figure chart as a way of tape reading, and he talked about "4500 shares traded over" some price range. He essentially was plotting volume at price. And what you do Gary is somewhat of the Wyckoff school, and volume profile is kind of another side of the same die. What you are using your 1 minute chart is to observe heavy volume activity, both in a small period of time (hence the 1 minute), and in a particular range of prices. No matter how we frame markets, it's all the same market, and it's not that different at all from 80-90 years ago when Wyckoff was trading. Kind of amazing actually.

OK, after some techincal struggles and a lot of reading, I have it running. Now what? LOL!!

Thanks for your help Josh. I am going to play with it some, same as all charts, may keep it, may lose it. If you have any tips on settings that you have found useful I would be interested.


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