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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

  #3971 (permalink)
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  #3972 (permalink)
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josh View Post
A guy named Daryl Guppy. Gully Multiple Moving Average (GMMA)... I tried it years ago when I got started in forex. Thought it was magical, but it's just a bunch of MA's But still quite pretty to look at. If I recall, some theory about small traders represented by the small MAs (5,10,15,20,25,30,etc), and large traders represented by larger MAs (60,70,etc.). Interesting but nothing special IMO.


Maybe you would like them more if I called them
"poor man's linear undecimated Haar transform wavelets implemented via lifting available on any trading platform"




https://futures.io/elite-circle/2601-wavelet-indicator-5.html#post26512


some from that thread...


sefstrat View Post
The purpose is the same as any other indicator, to analyze the price series and determine information about its recent movement that can assist in making informed trading decisions.

There many reasons why wavelets are superior to other techniques for analyzing market data, however in order to realize many of their benefits you must understand what the benefits are and how to use them to your advantage.

In fact, one of the main benefits of wavelets is that there is a huge amount of instructional material out there which you can use to learn exactly how to use them.

You can go to any trading forum and find hundreds of methods of how to use various indicators, however very few of the people who create those methods have a deep understanding of the mathematical basis of the indicators they use. Thus the methods that they create, if they work at all, are usually tied to a very specific timeframe or instrument and set of parameters, and for that reason the likelihood of them continuing to work for any period of time is relatively low.

Contrast that with wavelets where you can easily find information on how to use them to analyze any type of data, written by people who really know what they are talking about and understand the implications of using one analysis technique versus another. To get that kind of quality information and training about how to use a trading-specific indicator you would have to pay out the nose (and even then it would almost surely be subpar compared to what is available free/cheap for wavelets)


Also, as I have mentioned before and you can see from websouths screenshots above, Guppy MA technique is essentially the same as the haar transform. So any of his material is applicable to Haar wavelets as well. The reason that wavelets are superior to GuppyMA is because they don't require you select your own set of periods, and the set of periods they use (powers of 2) can be proven to encode the maximal amount of information in the lowest amount of lines, so less unnecessary information to analyze and less computational power. Guppy MA does look cool with lots of lines though, can't deny that ; )


sefstrat View Post
Sort of, a better analogy is that of chaos theory where you have 'basins of attraction' that correlate to support and resistance regions. It is important to think of it as a region and not a line as you will note that the actual line of support or resistance is frequently broken slightly just before a sharp rebound (ie the previous low or high is taken out with a stop hunt just before a reversal)

The main problem with the EM analogy is that neither the particle (price) nor the field in which it interacts have a fixed charge or polarity (ie both would be constantly fluctuating and impossible to measure independently)


sefstrat View Post
Attractors/Chaos theory is not really something that you can 'encapsulate' in an indicator per se.. it is more of a higher level representation that can give a better picture of how chaotic/nonlinear systems behave in general. If you understand that 'general' behavior you will be able to use any indicator more effectively (or trade without indicators) as you will know what patterns/signals to look for.

Of course its not necessary to understand anything about chaos theory to intuitively understand market dynamics (which is ultimately whats important). It is possible to gain a similar level of understanding through thousands of hours of dedicated screen time watching and studying different markets. Either way the key is to have an understanding of what kind of things you are looking for in advance.


“Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind.” - Dr. Seuss
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  #3973 (permalink)
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websouth View Post
Maybe you would like them more if I called them
"poor man's linear undecimated Haar transform wavelets implemented via lifting available on any trading platform"

I know I would. But may shorten to PMLUHTWIVL.


Thanks for the added commentary. I do plan to look into it.

 
  #3974 (permalink)
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Hey Mr Gary

!!!!!HELP ME!!!!!

When you are on your travells do you every have connection problems with the wireless connections you use from the hotels

I have paid for a weekd internet at the resort i am staying at, i can connect to my live account and data feed but i cannot seem to get data through. Its driving me MAD :-@

Have you had these issues before

regards

P.S i will call you some time in the moring tomorrow, let me know when is best for you

regards

" I will follow my rules, I will take my stops, I will be disciplined and i will work with the market....NOT AGAINST IT! Professional mind control is the key"
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  #3975 (permalink)
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greenr View Post
Hey Mr Gary

!!!!!HELP ME!!!!!

When you are on your travells do you every have connection problems with the wireless connections you use from the hotels

I have paid for a weekd internet at the resort i am staying at, i can connect to my live account and data feed but i cannot seem to get data through. Its driving me MAD :-@

Have you had these issues before

regards

P.S i will call you some time in the moring tomorrow, let me know when is best for you

regards


"Data" as in a trading feed, or "data" as in emails and other things? When I travel, email can be a real pain. Some ISPs work with mine, others don't. There are a few fixes.

But trade data I have never had a problem with. Slow from bottlenecking, always. Particularly wireless. There is also a chance servers are just down over the holiday weekend? Are your trades US based?

I am cool anytime this weekend. Working on getting out of the Jersey trip, but still may leave here Tuesday morning.

 
  #3976 (permalink)
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GaryD View Post
"Data" as in a trading feed, or "data" as in emails and other things? When I travel, email can be a real pain. Some ISPs work with mine, others don't. There are a few fixes.

But trade data I have never had a problem with. Slow from bottlenecking, always. Particularly wireless. There is also a chance servers are just down over the holiday weekend? Are your trades US based?

I am cool anytime this weekend. Working on getting out of the Jersey trip, but still may leave here Tuesday morning.

Its most bizzare to be honest, im all good with internet, emails ect

im connected to my account and data feed, i just cant seem to any live data through. Its really pi**ing me off to be honest. The stupid resort im staying at have charged me nearly $100 for a week internet (are you friging kidding) like the accomodation charge isit enough

check it out...weird!

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I have historical data, im connected. I can see my account value....but i cannot get any live data through

I am not trading or looking to trade, i had a few ideas i wanted to test and some back testing to run

FRUSTRATING

Ill Skype you some time tomorrow anyways, just had a beautiful meal on the sea front

I love USA <3

" I will follow my rules, I will take my stops, I will be disciplined and i will work with the market....NOT AGAINST IT! Professional mind control is the key"
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  #3977 (permalink)
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greenr View Post
I have historical data, im connected. I can see my account value....but i cannot get any live data through

To rule out the obvious first with this kind of thing--as the market is closed, you should be getting no depth, or "live data" ... what do you expect to be seeing here?

 
  #3978 (permalink)
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josh View Post
To rule out the obvious first with this kind of thing--as the market is closed, you should be getting no depth, or "live data" ... what do you expect to be seeing here?

At least a 1 print on the Time and sales when you 1st connect to the live data to show live connection

" I will follow my rules, I will take my stops, I will be disciplined and i will work with the market....NOT AGAINST IT! Professional mind control is the key"

Last edited by greenr; September 2nd, 2012 at 10:20 AM.
 
  #3979 (permalink)
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greenr View Post
At least a 1 print on the Time and sales when you 1st connect to the live data to show live connection

OK.. I do not get this when I connect during non-market hours. I guess you will find out at 6pm ET today what's going on.

 
  #3980 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
First, for those following me for the last year or more, you know I've changed my style a few times. At first I felt bad about this, I felt perhaps I was doing something wrong before and that anyone that followed me was possibly now doing something wrong, too.

But with time, I realized that just isn't how it works. There is no right or wrong. There is only the now. (Hi George!)

Tip

The details below are just to satisfy your inner-self In truth, they are to keep your interest in this thread so you will keep reading and hopefully discover something much more important. These chart details (time frames, indicators) are not important or relevant to this thread.




(LARGE SECTION SKIPPED AS INDICATORS ARE NOT THE TOPIC HERE - GARY)



I trade only with-trend. I do not short when price is above the midline, and I do not long when price is below it.

I trade 2 to 3 targets, with each target having 1 or more contracts. The first target is usually quick, 8-10 tick profit. The second target is set in accordance to price action (recent lows, swing levels, s/r levels, fib band, etc). The third target is a runner that usually goes for 50-75 ticks, or more.

My stop is usually about 16 to 24 ticks. Some may cringe at that. I set my stop in accordance with price action, but I also set it wide enough to avoid stop hunting. My goal is to only get stopped out when I've made a bad trade. I do not get stopped out when I picked the trend correctly but just missed the perfect entry by a few ticks.

On CL, 1 tick is $10.00 USD. CL is trading at about $75 as we speak, so a 24 tick stop (0.24) is roughly equal to 0.3% of the trading price. CL almost always moves 100 ticks before lunch and another 100 ticks after.

CL is a very volatile instrument. It is not for beginners. It makes ES seem like watching paint dry. More on why this type of trading better suits my personality later.

Mike


Mike,

I am at a phase where I am very interested in connecting with other traders to see what they do. I do not mean I am looking for someone else's method. It has something to do with validation as a group? Not sure, but you may have read enough of my jumbled inner thoughts to get where I am. My biggest setback in trading is my own confidence, something that I am seeing make a comeback though.

I'm pretty sure you stopped trading crude oil and went to 6E and ES, but I was on my Control Panel, preparing to add some contact info for myself, and saw the name of a thread you started https://futures.io/psychology-money-management/1415-big-mikes-day-trading-method-advice.html#post17416 (where I got the quote above) in some "recent posts" list. I also saw it was from 2009, so who knows why it showed up there.

Despite your suggestion that I stay away from a computer for a few days...

I agree with the 16-24 tick stop minimum, and even set an "emergency" wider than that at times, it all depends on price action. On targets, similar, if I am truly only looking to "scalp", 7-15 ticks is about it. Next range of targets 20-30, then up into the 40-60 area.

So, on the premise that we agreed at some point in time of the mannerisms and probabilities of crude...

At the wide extremes of the RR you mentioned above (and I understand that trading is an evolution) the low end target was 8 and the high end stop was 24. While that mix was probably fluid and cannot be truly defined as a 3:1 RR, I am interested in hearing your thoughts, and the thoughts of others who might read this, on whether scalping for initial targets lower than initial stop loss is something you do, how often you do it, or what place it holds in your trading, today or in the past.

I started trading crude and holding for my 2x or more targets a few years ago, and it did produce a profitable trail over time, but the execution has to be nearly flawless. Tiring mentally. I have found that sometimes I just "go with the flow" for a brief moment, for RR less than 1:1. Mine is more like 12-15 vs 6-10 on scalping. Price action determines it, no hard rules.

I find that when I trade like that, which is not every day or every trade, only on certain days, or mixed in with longer trades to soften a loss, or capture a moment, or build a risk base for later, kind of a "feel something" trade approach, I can hit win % that makes it work. Not with my eyes closed, or anything I am capable of programming to be traded automatically... but when I am focused, that initial risk vs reward seems acceptable to me. I know I will be right more than wrong. Could not say why I know...

Of all the training I have had, all the books I have read, all the advice I have seen in this website, reward is supposed to be larger than risk, transaction costs are supposed to not make sense, and so forth. So, whether it works or not, in my subconscious it feels like I have committed some great trading "sin" when I do it, and I often tell myself to stop it, wait for something better.

That is something that is at conflict in my head lately.


Big Mike View Post
"But with time, I realized that just isn't how it works. There is no right or wrong. There is only the now."

Mike



Forgetting hard math for a minute, if scalping is mixed with longer targets, and is not seen as just another trade, but as a way of keeping my finger on the pulse, and if at the end of the day, week, and month I am ahead... is it wrong?

I would argue that for someone starting new, yes, it is absolutely wrong. The odds are so far against you at first that you will die a death of a thousand tiny cuts. The question may be, with experience, and once you understand the when and where, can it become right?


Last edited by GaryD; September 2nd, 2012 at 01:17 PM.
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