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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
I added some charts to show what I was thinking. Not that it happens often, or that it works every time, but it works sometimes. I am trying to find my place for size, and when I get a lot of things that line up with my way of thinking, that is where I feel better about it. Panda said something about "when?", in his journal, and I thought, "when you know it is time.". So, just following my own advice today for a change.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Crude is not yet out of the woods. Hard to say with any authority, but without any major changes in charts I am anticipting remaining a buyer tomorrow. Not that it could not change by 4:15 today.
As I watch the little bird flutter around where I left him, 95.40, should I feel remorse for having let him go too early? It made it to 95.66 before getting shot down by the masses. What about the other 4, was it correct to get out early? If I am going to take the risk, shouldn't the reward be bigger? Had the trade turned ugly, would I have really allowed that stop to get hit? If I did, on all 5?
Tough questions. Most likely, I would have bailed on at least several early, maybe even gotten out and back in lighter, had it not looked so good. But that LSP, when it came to the tick after I had thought about it, did I really believe it would hit the stop? No, right or wrong, no I did not. I have taken and I have missed that entry so many times, and with the HVS, 786, ABC possible completion (pink) in an uptrending market, I felt pretty sure there would be buyers there. Even though I know there was just as good of a "chance" I was wrong. Maybe the odds were less than 50/50, who knows. But in my mind, in my beliefs, filtered by my experiences, I felt it was as good as it gets. I am wrong often, and even that did not change my belief today. Why, I may never understand.
How far they could push it, in such light volume? That is where I get really iffy in my beliefs, and what keeps me in a tight range of profit targets. Should I have gone for some ratio of the initial stop? Or ratio of where I most likely would have gotten out, which is who knows where. I intended to exit a trade recently about 10 ticks higher than I actually got out, it was like lightning. That is what the "emergency stop" is there for.
By having rules that are not always rules, guidelines, and varying degrees of internal "feelings" that I allow to guide my trades, it is no wonder that I question the pursuit of a full-timer. And yet, that is what I have learned to believe in, "feeling" through trades. Just because something happened before means nothing. Knowing what will happen tomorrow is so much different than what will happen in the next hour, different still than in the next 10 minutes. That moment in time, that particular rush of volume... but that specific price, none of that really matters.
Catching the low, selling at the high, that does not matter either. Spotting opportunity, and making money from it, be it 5 ticks or 50, that is all that really matters.
@Deucalion nailed it one night, "visceral and Darwinian", and I never forget that quote. Who tells the lion that he will eat? What are the odds? Did he backtest the whole premise before he decided to be a lion? And, if he fails, was it poor judgement on his part to be born?
Trading with no guarantees, that is the only way it can be done. This is not a game of math, but survival.
I have thought many times, if I lost $300 but gained $100, but was right 90% of the time, is that "bad" trading? That is not something that interests me, because I do need the ability to be wrong, and I cannot reach 90% as of what I know today, so I would die, so to speak. But I saw a system, named "the edge" (ATW), that was based on a ratio of win size lower than loss size by roughly that ratio, I don't exactly remember but I think it was 1 to 3, and that thing just seemed to churn profitability.
This debate with myself I have often, having read so many books, taken so many classes, studied so much, and while the mind always comes up with the same logic, the heart often says something different.
Today I was in my home, no deadlines, all jobs are calm and running in order. I was relaxed, able to think clearly from one moment to the next, take a wait and see approach. I had a plan in the morning, I was able to calculate SR on two timeframes as the market moved along without losing my train of thought.
Today was not spectacular trading, but I felt ready to be right or wrong, solid in my beliefs, acutely aware. It just occured to me that I don't get that feeling as often as I once did, since my workload took off. And I realize that feeling does not guarantee anything, that I could hit max down and have felt the same going in.
But if there was some way to rewind the tape of past days, and have some indicator that showed me how aware I was, how confident I was, I would be willing to bet I do better overall when I am relaxed and just having fun at it.
I was thinking over the weekend about allowing a trade to just be, and for some reason today I referred to my trade as a little bird that I set free, to "fly" since I was going for "up". It might not have been as fun for me if I had to picture some burrowing animal. "Dig, little mole"... "Jump, little lemming" ??? Needs work.
But it was interesting to not feel attached to it, or at least try not to. Once it took it's own identity I ran with it in my silly conversation with myself, knowing that insanity might be what it seems like from the outside, but also knowing that it was just another mental exercise to me. I have yet to talk to myself in an English accent, as another trader did, but it is no different.
The mind needs to be lead along if it is to be re-trained. And sometimes, if I make it not serious, I find it works better. There are more than enough serious exercises to compensate.
Where are the collective minds of the traders right now? After all of the lines are drawn, news read, indicators checked, that is the question I ask. The fact that no one ever knows what the market is going to do can seem like an incredible obstacle. But, what if that were the greatest asset?
Two losing days in August so far. One I know for sure had a lot to do with my head. The other I am having a hard time remembering exactly what was going on. My % wins are falling for some reason. But I am up net more than usual. Probably due to some size increases though. Actually, that is also probably why my percentage is off.
What is it really, about position size? I know it is related to what causes us to feel completely on balance while walking a line painted in the ground, but most of us would be scared stiff to walk a 4" wide beam 20 stories up. The act of balance itself does not change. The motor skills are still available. And yet our mind can paralyze us. Compromise us.
GaryD, was it the " in my home, no deadlines, all jobs are calm and running in order" that led to the wonderful mental state or was it something you did to "reach" that mental state?
