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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

  #371 (permalink)
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The w4 target shifted some after last night's move.

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EDIT 9/23/11 - I have slowed my commentary considerably, finding it time consuming sometimes, and only posted a chart image on this. What was assumed;

1) The trend is down. We just completed a major ABC correction to the upside (see previous posts)
2) Wave 3 in the new downtrend seemed to have completed, indicated by a near double bottom and a race to the top.
3) I established a target range for where wave 4 should end, above.
4) The chart below was a followup showing that the minimum expected target for wave 4 had been reached, and at that time I was watching closely for signs of a reversal.
5) Two charts below, you can see the double top had started to form. I saw there were a large numbver of sellers in that area in both the first and the 2nd hit of the highs, and so I knew other traders were expecting the same thing that I was.


Last edited by GaryD; September 23rd, 2011 at 05:18 PM. Reason: additional commentary
 
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Minimum w4 target just hit

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Closed at +80, expecting a bounce here. Prior low pivot.

 
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closed -18

 
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The large red line at the top of this chart is the same as the red minimum target for wave 4 shown earlier. Notice how much intensity there is at that point when sellers some in. It's like they take price moving in one direction and hit it with a baseball bat in the opposite direction.

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Nice trade Gary--can you elaborate a little on what gave you the confidence to enter this short? And did you enter it on the way up, or the way down (before or after it broke .72)?

I had a difficult time reading the market the last two days partly due to the extra volatility. At the time of your short today I saw no clear volume indication so I decided to just wait and see. What caused you to pull the trigger on this one?


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