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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

  #3741 (permalink)
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To fade or not to fade. That is the question? I don't think it is...

A fade is not off limits in many trading arsenals, hitting the extremes, the taboo “picking tops and bottoms”, can provide the most rewarding opportunities in terms of potential gain versus potential risk. What is the purpose of calculating support and resistance, if not to try to pinpoint those exact moments in price and time? There is no wrong or right answer, but there are wrong and right executions.

I hit a max down day on Thursday by fading, and then faded again the very next day and came out very profitable.

In both instances I had almost identical conditions in indicators leading into the trade, in both cases I took the trade more than once to reach the final reward. If someone who was not involved in the trade were to look back at the entries and exits of the two days, they would probably have a hard time defining the differences. And even if they could spot something visual, they would be missing the true differences.

On the losing day, I violated the “AAA”s of trading. Attitude, awareness, acceptance.

On the losing day, I had a lot of pressure on me from outside circumstance. High stress. That compromised my attitude coming into the day. On the winning day, my schedule was far more forgiving, my body much more relaxed.

On the losing day, I was distracted, trying to manage multiple tasks while trading, justifying it as “I have a stop in place”. But my awareness was almost non-existent other than where I got in and where I got out. On the winning day, I never took my eyes or thoughts off the trade, feeling every little signal and nuance.

On the losing day, I wanted a win, looking back expected a win, maybe needed a win. Something to tell me things were ok, something to provide some relief from other problems I was having. A sign that I had a safety net that would remove me from the outside world of stress that I was surrounded by. I was not prepared to accept a loss that day. On the winning day, I was in 2 contracts up to 25 ticks profit, let it turn on me back to about -2, and felt ok about it. I was “wrong”, but inside it did not register as anything, not a big deal. Then, I saw something that said I might have been right again, tried again, made a profit. Then saw I might be wrong again, got out. It was what it was, and the focus was on protecting myself more than making something, and I was not concerned with the money.

My analysis in retrospect of the two days could try to pinpoint tiny changes in market strength, stop placement, profit placement, entry or exit points, deciciding which side of the market was appropriate... And I can find some validity from that side. I see some differences that could were techincal, and the losing day's trade was not as good. And I could decide to note that setup detail, and feel I had accomplished something, and it would be just that... something. And I have noted those things, even already knew those difference between the two days before I took any of the trades.

But, that would not be truly addressing what went wrong on the losing day. It would be looking for excuses somewhere outside myself. Deep down I know that attitude, awareness and acceptance, is everything.


Last edited by GaryD; August 18th, 2012 at 11:02 PM. Reason: stop
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  #3742 (permalink)
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GaryD View Post

But, that would not be truly addressing what went wrong on the losing day. It would be looking for excuses somewhere outside myself. Deep down I know that attitude, awareness and acceptance, is everything.

Starting on page 1 of your journal and reading through it is almost as if on page one you BELIEVED in AAA, and over the course of your journal I can quite clearly see that you now LIVE it. It's a very interesting arc from way back when to now.

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  #3743 (permalink)
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Starting on page 1 of your journal and reading through it is almost as if on page one you BELIEVED in AAA, and over the course of your journal I can quite clearly see that you now LIVE it. It's a very interesting arc from way back when to now.

What may be chronicled (it has been awhile since I looked back more than a few months), is a journey of someone who discovered trading in desperation, went through hell, came out the other side and by finding a way to coexist with uncertainty as a "hobby" (albeit a hobby that was intensely rooted).

That is where this thread started, as close as I can remember. I saw something that I believed in, and I still see the stronger the belief the better the results. But the belief was also better than 50% blind faith initially. The longer I believe it, the more it proves itself, but the inescapable uncertainty remains a formidable opponent some days.

Transitioning from trading out of almost not caring, detached, unemotional... to trading where I would prefer to do this as my sole income, is a lot harder than I would have guessed. The motivation changes along the way, the requirement to win works against me.

But, along the way I have discovered, as my trading improves incrementally, my understanding of myself grows immensely. And so, in that sense I am "living" it, or possibly, it is becoming me. I am not sure, but either way I feel I am better because of it. It is as if the goal and the goal-seeker shifted paths to meet somewhere other than where they were originally headed. @zt379 tossed out the word serendipity a long way back. I had to look it up. lol!


Last edited by GaryD; August 19th, 2012 at 12:17 PM.
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  #3744 (permalink)
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  #3745 (permalink)
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Here's a little riddle in @zt379 style that I woke up to this morning;

How do you get from BELIEVING in something, to LIVING it?



Remove what is not needed.

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Ok, that is everything I can think of... and it makes me laugh sometimes, seeing so many lines I start with, and wonder how to ever get that reduced down to something tradeable.

96.00 - 96.40 was a key prior support area when crude started it's massive move down, and while volume is a little flaky in August, price was shoved down hard twice on Friday morning as it approaced that area. I am curious if those sellers have been exhausted. There is no questioning the strong uptrend...

 
  #3747 (permalink)
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GaryD View Post
Here's a little riddle in @zt379 style that I woke up to this morning;

How do you get from BELIEVING in something, to LIVING it?



Remove what is not needed.

Hello there...

I had a number of thoughts when reading your question.

My first impression was that it masked the real question you were, perhaps, asking of yourself ?
Being "should I do what I believe in?"

As you may have noticed, I don't consider the concept of "beliefs" as most here might.

As an example, inherent in your question is that there is something beyond that belief in something.
In this case it's the "living" of that belief.
At this stage we are beyond the belief of the thing becasue we are actually living it.

Now I appreciate that some may say that we are only able to live the thing because of the belief we have in it.
I, however, would suggest or at least ask, does the belief in something actually make it true ?
Does knowing something to be true require us to, there after, believe in it ?

Where I'm going with this:
I think the whole notion of belief as a system, is just that. It's a system that we become accustomed to.
Alternatively we have the option of seeing if something is real by doing it.

Seeing the reality of something has nothing to do with belief.
Indeed, I would suggest that seeing the realtiy of something actually dispells the necessity of believing in something. Rather it lends us to approach things on the bases of proof by doing.

We have a similar sense with what we discussed about confidence.
That "after thing". Where by taking responsiblity for our actions by acting responsibly (doing what we know to be right in this moment) shows confidence to be an illusion.

I think "beliefs" are a similar illusion.
I don't think it's our fault. It's just the way of things as presented to us through our lives and education etc..

Bare with me here:
So in needing to believe in something, with the belief in of itself having no real baring on the situation or outcome, we are left with a duality of sorts that is creating a contradiction.

We need the belief in order to give us the confidence to do, when it's the doing that tells us what we actually know, and that knowing shows the illusion of belief and confidence because both are only shown to be true/false after the fact.

The contradiction becomes that we are asking of the the very things (belief and confidence) something that neither can provide the answer to.

What I'm saying isn't meant as any suggestion to do anything in particular.
Rather that only by doing something particular, can we see the outcome and gain a knowing of anything.

To what ever degree your question does indeed relate to whether you're asking yourself "should I do it ?"
I would only suggest to be vigilant.
Much has been discussed about wanting and needing to be.
To what ever degree those "influences" affect how you trade is not something you can know now (imo) other than to be as aware, now, of as many possibilites, and think through them, now, as best we can in advance, so as to counter, or deal in advance with any pitfalls or obsticles.

The rest will come down, imo, to that real time place of the now, and how we exist in that space.
The extent to which we understand acceptance, understand that it is our awareness of the present moment that creates our experience of and in the present moment.


I think you see the irony in that you are presently doing something (your work for the sake of a better name) that you are succeeding in but don't want to do, and are getting more of the less you want it.

So this, imo, takes us to the heart of the matter. The heart of all matter.
Peace and love.
Neither of which have anything to do with winning yet are unlimited.
Neither of which have anything to do with conditions via wants and needs because they are unconditional.
Neither of which are accepted as true untill experienced.

I have never been to San Francisco.
But if I do, I would go there with one or two or a few contracts.
Be measured and patient in their use.
Make no demands and have no expectation.
And see what grows from those.

The courage, we also spoke of, (and apologies if I repeat myself) is not always to do with having the courage to do.
But also the courage to accept what we don't do and also the courage to live in terms of our highest sense of personal honesty.
All of these things are what ever they are to the individual.

So long as we are honest (to oursleves) as to who we are and endevour to live in terms of that honesty, then perhaps we may find that sense of peace and love that becomes the measure of the worthwhileness and ultimate point of it all.

Regardless of our fears or desires,
we are here, now.
Providing we are aware of the fact. !

Just some thoughts and wishing you well @GaryD.

Every moment I wake up I realize I know nothing, and then I smile...

Last edited by zt379; August 19th, 2012 at 06:07 PM. Reason: spelling
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  #3748 (permalink)
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I started to read that, but realized it was going to be a big meal to digest. Some frisbee golf first...

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  #3749 (permalink)
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GaryD View Post
Here's a little riddle in @zt379 style that I woke up to this morning;

How do you get from BELIEVING in something, to LIVING it?



Remove what is not needed.

We don't truly believe in something unless we do live it.
True belief involves both accepting it as truth AND agreeing with it..
Often we can have one and don't have the other and hence don't live it..
Whenever we don't behave in harmony with out beliefs, there is always a reason..

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  #3750 (permalink)
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Bored as fuck on my month-long vacation on a Sunday night; so I'll throw another comment into this thread.

Hey--overachiever workaholic @GaryD; why don't cha trade an asset class from 4:30am or 5am est up to 6:30am or 7am est full time with appropriate trading size--say @1% of your risk capital per trade (based on avg. risk per trade) and then say--work 75% of your normal workload?

Then when you are working on all your building stuff--you can work at 110%--bust that shit out and NOT compromise your trading?

When you trade you trade (I am sure you can find a great trading instrument early in the a.m. 6E or Dax or Bund or Ftse 100 or whatever). See if you can work your way up in size (no pressure 'cause you keep % of your total margin risk per trade low) and work your way up the foodchain while you are making big money in your consulting?

You work 25% less to compensate for your other 'full-time' job (90-120 minutes is full-time daytrading, btw for many people).

No offense and no worries, but I don't see you upping your contract size and upping your trading salary doing what you are doing now.

If what you are doing now is your thing--then keep doing it. You don't have to burn any bridges with the compromise--but you'll have to go to bed a bit earlier and not drink too many beers if you get up early.

When I am based on the west coast I have to get up @3:45am PST~~so, you'll have that advantage on me!! : )

In Colorado though--you'd have to be up @3am MST--that is not cool though.

Ever thought about just being an East Coast consultant?

peace

hedvig

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