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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

  #361 (permalink)
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supermht View Post
seems you have been fighting with this trend to the end

Here is the major trend view

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  #362 (permalink)
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Here's a better view. Notice how many times the market turned in that area? Sellers are coming in, every time, and they may eventually run out, but until they do, that is resistance, and the odds continue to favor a downtrend. Odds diminish as volume is absorbed, and so if it can break that point, my focus will move back to the long side.



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Going down, but fighting it the whole way so far.

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GaryD View Post
Here's a better view. Notice how many times the market turned in that area? Sellers are coming in, every time, and they may eventually run out, but until they do, that is resistance, and the odds continue to favor a downtrend. Odds diminish as volume is absorbed, and so if it can break that point, my focus will move back to the long side.



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9/19/11 - Resistance held as expected, and crude came down below 85.00 today. Watching for a swing short entry around 86.50.

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  #365 (permalink)
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Fall is here, seven minutes into it. I live in Florida, so the shift is not that obvious. But, I know from experience that day by day, the average temperature will get lower from now through February. Some days will be unusually cool, other unusually hot, but overall, the trend over the next few months will be towards lower temperatures. This I know, because it has happened before, and continues to happen, and so it is predictable.

If I was going to place a bet on temperatures between now and February, I would bet on lower. Statistics support it. Is global warming a threat? Maybe. Will we escape cooler temperatures because I live in Florida? Maybe. But, the good bet is for cooler, at least for now.

If I wake up tomorrow and it is unusually cooler, I would bet it would get warmer before it got cooler. If I wake and it is unusually hot, I would still be correct in betting winter will still come.

If betting on temperature was how I made my living, would it be safe to watch every move in degrees? What if a cloud passes? What if I am in the shade? What about rain? Where is my latest and greatest temperature gauge so I can be more aware of temperature changes than anyone...

Silly?

Trade with the seasons, aka the trends, the patterns, the odds, the statistics. Not with the time of day, not with the passing clouds.

Step back, see the bigger picture, relax. Markets move in somewhat predictable patterns. Keep your eye on the seasons, not the thermometer.

Stay safe.

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  #366 (permalink)
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Good stuff GaryD. I had a discussion with a non-trading friend that made the connection between betting on the weather vs. betting on the patterns, etc in the market.

We live in colorado's front range and so we get 250 days of sun or so. The question was, if you could bet on the weather the day after tomorrow, how would you do it? One answer is simply to bet on a sunny day every single time and not worry about the forecast or anything else - just play the averages and accept the return that generates. Another strategy would be to bet using the forecast with a bias for sunny days to try to generate a higher return. Which strategy is best? Which strategy would you be able to put more money into? It made for an interesting conversation.

Incidentally, I'm still waiting for this trading range to "age" a bit more before I start betting on a strong move back up or to the downside. I'm watching a 3-day bull flag that exists on the Russell chart. We're chopping around at the bottom of it and I'm expecting another test of the top of it. The rest of today may tell us more about the fate of this flag.............. but it could easily take another day or so to decide it needs to head back up to the 700ish level.

good trading!

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Last edited by Surly; September 21st, 2011 at 01:42 PM. Reason: figured I better post a chart....
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  #367 (permalink)
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The FOMC notes sent crude down to a very interesting area. This is a high frequency area for major support and resistance, shown by the red and green arrown on both the 60 minute chart and the daily chart. it is also the 618 retracement of the recent major wave up, and the entire move up from the lows on the daily chart. IF crude can hold this area and form a base it could provide a good risk to reward long. But, be cautious of follow through tomorrow morning.

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Here is a profile of the area since the drop below 91 since the debt ceiling drama.

A balance area with a POC of 83.87 is approaching, which is also near support in the low to mid 83s.

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Wave C completed as expected. Now will the downtrend continue? This is an interesting spot.

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Crude has possibly completed wave 3 in a new 5 wave downtrend. The potential for a turning point;

1) 261 extension of wave 2 (horizontal blue line)
2) Exhaustion fib from 9/13 high (bright green line)
3) Possible double bottom wth 7/12/11 low (red dashed line)

The target for the end of wave 4, should it confirm, is between 82.80 and 83.80.

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