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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

  #3641 (permalink)
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"Connection Lost". I heard that this morning while in a trade, called the broker, got flat regardless, and shut down NT, went on with other things.

Later I was thinking about that phrase, and realized it holds a deeper meaning.


My perception of risk and stress in trading seems to be tied to my constant fascination with it. There is nothing else, sometimes, other than work and trading. My connection to my own interests, the rest of the world for that matter, has been lost.

The catalyst was my bankruptcy, but the seed was just there lying dormant, waiting. My first 7 years of business were 80-90 hour weeks, so drowning my troubles in workoholism is an easy direction for me.

Spending some time to reconnect with my personal interests outside of work may provide another shift in my thinking of the reliability of uncertainty.

While I may never know the outcome of a trade on one hand, price only does one of a few things, and lately I have found myself not as cognizant of any specific "setup", like this is over that, or I will buy at the touch of this, as much as a thought, like; "this market is about to move down, probably to here...", or "there is not enough selling pressure, not enough volume, the high should get taken out before..."


Last edited by GaryD; August 9th, 2012 at 11:14 PM. Reason: I don't know, reading - typos
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  #3642 (permalink)
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My work day started with a text I received at 6am Eastern, and just ended with an invoice I emailed at 8pm Mountain.

That is one example of where trading would be better.

 
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The previous minor H&S in oil was nearly perfect, this one is in a stall, winding into a tight coil. I am watching the triangle for a jump on the break of either the minor LSP, or the new neckline.

The fact the the prior H&S was so textbook, and this one is winding, has me leaning up, but not trading up yet. Today I took only short side trades and did decent, dropped two that were class B+ for me, but I had to be responsible...


Last edited by GaryD; August 10th, 2012 at 12:01 AM.
 
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Tomorrow's calendar is wimpy, price is left to itself to find a direction for the most part.

 
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CN:Merchandise Trade Balance

DE:CPI
2:00 AM ET

FR:Industrial Production
2:45 AM ET

IT:CPI
4:00 AM ET

GB:Producer Price Index
4:30 AM ET

CA:Labour Force Survey
8:30 AM ET



I have started watching the World calendar, but have not seen the reactions at the times expected. I am guessing because my trades are based on the wrong exchange?

 
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Congestion to Trend, Balance to Imbalance.

Don't trade crude, but I would be thinking short.

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Now there is a move down, but the 5W corrective pattern up was established before 9am EST, which is why I was short-only today. I watched the tops at the 100% +/- of the prior, waiting for volume to tell me approximately where.

 
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Congestion to Trend, Balance to Imbalance.

Don't trade crude, but I would be thinking short.

Yes, that was the thought today. But as this gets tighter, a minor H&S failure becomes more possible. If enough traders without the power to do anything significant get short, look out above.

 
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You can see they hit the top of the RSP, on both yellow and blue, those would have made some money, but it is struggling.

As of now it has slightly penetrated lower.. not sure, tired, don't care really. Tomorrow.


Last edited by GaryD; August 10th, 2012 at 12:54 AM.
 
  #3650 (permalink)
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I will say, I am not a buyer here. Short only until this plays out differently. But it is looking trappish

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Or, if it was going to go, it should not fight it so hard?

The red an green horizontals are the real "breaks".


Last edited by GaryD; August 10th, 2012 at 01:07 AM.

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