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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

  #3611 (permalink)
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My laptop is packed, the lines on the chart above have been wiped clean on that computer. Crudes move Friday was certainly bullish, taking out the minor highs, but I have no opinion tonight. Sure there are places that might provide support or resistance, maybe I am just tired, but it is like there is a missing move... and I have no idea what that means.

The breakout top is providing initial support as of the Sunday open. I bought somewhere around that, I think 91.04, as I was playing with my new laptop screen space, then got out just because it was time to do a final test pack. +5 ticks, but just something to do. Horrible reason to have been in a trade, or maybe just a shitty reason to get out of a trade, even though it did move higher, I knew my time was very limited. D- for that $50.

Missing move? Maybe when I get setup in Denver something will feel differently. I feel "off". Possibly from feeling so exposed, my monitors cleared from the desk... one lone monitor remains. But I am not able to agree with myself on very much tonight. Is crude in a channel? Is it a distorted W5? Is the local DB a new base and we see the beginning, or end, of W1? The strongest feeling I have is a break below 86.80 would most likely be significant, but also unlikely at this point.

Maybe the fabric glue killed some brain cells.

 
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Tonight, it is a failed ABC continuation, with a local DB. That should mean "up", from somewhere...


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Last edited by GaryD; August 6th, 2012 at 12:55 AM.
 
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Possibly the key is not so much support, but a break above?

 
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Possibly the key is not so much support, but a break above?




I just got checked in in Denver, the breakout was a good strategy today, good for up to 100 ticks. The flag/pennant that formed helped give structure, which was the info needed for the "missing move" I felt existed last night.

The chart above is from around 7am, my cab came at 7:30. Not a chance today, but good to be out of the "off" feeling.

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Last edited by GaryD; August 7th, 2012 at 12:04 AM.
 
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Really, had I been trading it, the breakout was the prior high, maybe 91.32? But still, the local DB was the new base, it did mean "up from somewhere", and the flag was the right thought this morning before my flight.

I did not take a trade today, 4 hour flight, then 6 hours of work. But the feeling "off" was maybe just that price was in the middle of nowhere at that time. Which, is not "off" at all.


EDIT: yes, 91.32 at 10:33am. The official long signal was slightly before that at 90.90 on the 6-range, but the breakout was the more conservative trade. Sometimes it is more about the momentum of other traders than the best RR available. I might have bought at 90.90, who can ever know in hindsight. The signal was there is all I can say. But 40+ ticks higher, an arguably worse RR entry, the odds were far greater of at least some continuation. Short were then seeing it was not looking good, and the push was on.

Sometimes I feel would prefer to make 15 ticks on a heavy move than 50 on a light one. The difference is dependability, maybe? 100 was still offered at the 91.32, not suggesting 15 ticks is a good target. but that moment of decision for other traders, I am guessing without looking holding some telltale volume?


Last edited by GaryD; August 7th, 2012 at 12:13 AM.
 
  #3616 (permalink)
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I am several chapters into "Trading in the Zone", and every so many pages thinking, "wait, I said that here", but just not with the same level of authority. The book presents it as an explanation, I ask a lot of it as a question, but really weird to me to read so much of what I think in so few pages.

On the flight today, reading about the negative ions with tears and the release from past issues, which as boys/men we are expected to be denied, that was one that helped me see something different.

The next topic was responsibility, something I was just commenting on last night before that.

The belief that trading occurs in the mind...check.

I started dozing off around page 60, barely into the book so far. But so far it is less of an education and more of a confirmation to me. @researcher247 told me I would probably like it better than The Disciplined Trader, and so far I do, a lot. If nothing else, the reading just flows better.

I am not setting up my monitors tonight, and so will most likely not trade tomorrow. I am setting up a somewhat high-tech project tomorrow, and in a room for one night then moving to a condo for the duration, maybe 6 weeks. I'll fly back and forth probably, so will have to repack at some point, but tonight the unpacking, setup, etc, is not worth it. Monitors still in the rental car trunk tonight.

I had to change bags and start from scratch to finally get something carry-on legal that would protect twin monitors, and it felt somewhat cartoonish as I made my way through the airport today, this little wheeled suitcase with a giant garment bag strapped to the top. I flew Southwest, no seat assigned, and heard over the loudspeaker that the flight was completely full, so I paid another $91 to get in the "A2" boarding. $200 roughly from having disposable monitors...

Even without the hectic travel schedule, I have fantasized about a life where I could travel from city to city, or country to country, and have a job lined up when I got there. Trading. I told my wife a few years ago I would do a reality show, "Trading Places". Get to some new area, check it out, and then the goal was to make enough trading to get to the next place. Not her dream life apparently... But trading while traveling is something that may come in handy. I noticed it even makes a difference when I change screen resolution, things look so big and distorted on low-res TVs. If I can travel with what looks the same as being at home, everything should feel the same.

I loved the idea of the dual-screen laptop. Had an idea for something similar myself, but lacked the technical skills, and/or the tenacity, to design it.

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..... I am guessing without looking holding some telltale volume?

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..and then, the next bar higher volume shows possible exhaustion, then a low volume test, then a possible short scalp... regretting I missed today. lol!

Of course, in hindsight. Trading is so easy, afterwards.


Last edited by GaryD; August 7th, 2012 at 12:21 AM.
 
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Knowing myself, the break above 91.32, and then the high volume possible exhaustion, I might have had 40-50 ticks out of the possible 100. at the breakout entry. And probably only 45-60 from the 90.90 entry. It would all be relative for some reason. One was out at exhaustion, the other out at the target break of the high...

Can I actually get to 100+ as a regular target? Do I need to? Is the reason I want to ego, and not truly RR as I tell myself?

 
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For some reason tonight, I feel somewhat alienated from futures.io (formerly BMT).

 
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GaryD View Post
For some reason tonight, I feel somewhat alienated from futures.io (formerly BMT).

Gary,

Why do you feel alienated? Also, is a 100 ticks in CL something you really are striving for? If so, it is a good question to ask, because it seems like targets like that should not be the goal.

David


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