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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

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?

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  #3522 (permalink)
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This feels like @researcher247's reference to "slowly leaking"... but that was his descrpition, not mine, and so not sure if I am on it or not. Motion is like 7pm...

 
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I am anticipating a blowout of the low at 89.40, but flat regardless.

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There she blows...

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The Dallas MFG Survey was a big downside surprise, but the heavy calendar this week and the temperature of Iran may be what is keeping price in a holding pattern.

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What is unsettling to me, having worked in roughly 20 states recently, including Dallas, Ft Worth and Houston, that area seemed to be one of the strongest in the country.

 
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Net +39. 20 from last night, so net +19 really. Weird, slow day that made me uncomfortable making any decision, and the trades I did take, other than last night's, had no real reason behind them. I would have closed at -19 just as easily, and not been surprised.

I bought into the close, around 2:10pm at the break above a minor high , and held back and forth for awhile for a small gain, 7 ticks, but I would have done better with the short trade to break below 89.40. There was little to go off of today, or to me anyway.


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Not the market I was looking forward to after being away, but I stayed out for the most part and am content with that decision.

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Long after the close, but charts still up, I see that I had a good opportunity to short the market today, but that was not what I was ready to do. I have been watching for a short for a few days based on a chart pattern (with the exception of last night's volume burst), but at the same time I just discovered, I do not believe in a short trade with some of the current issues in the background.

And then, in conflict to that, today I did not believe in a long trade with the news that came out.

So my indicators gave opportunities, my charts gave clues, but my beliefs got in the way. Not what I strive to do, when I become aware of it. But I was just reminded that I am not always aware of the things affecting my decision process.

To give myself some slack, today was not a good trading day. Action suggests I was not the only one not sure of what to do. Today, after around 10:30am, it would have been almost impossible to fail just buying bottoms and selling tops of short term channels/keltners/bollingers for 15-20 ticks per side. While that looks like opportunity in hindsight, it suggests confusion in price direction today. Or also, agreement in price today. But agreement is not what trading CL is about. Bonds maybe...

I try not to have bias that is not technically based, but also know that crude is a very news-driven instrument. I watched Romney give a speech in Israel as I waited for my flight to board out of DC last night. It left me very cautious of shorting crude oil, but I did not realize it was still with me all day. Last night I believed in the volume burst to the upside...

News is a catalyst, but technical aspects define the rules. I need to be conscious of that at all times.

ES maintains it's gravitational pull on CL, and ES was not willing to give up anything on it's recent gains today.

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That is another reason why I just watched the short trade come and go, but was willing to take a much lower rated trade long.


For some reason I believe in that more than the news bias decisions. But the better option really was to not trade today. 19 ticks is not a "bad" day, but I should have waited for something better.

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Lately I find myself opening this page, and then typing nothing. Closing the window and going back to thinking. What is there to say sometimes?

It seems as traders we feel a need to always know what is going on, desire a method that allows us to stay involved, miss a move and wonder how to fix that "error" for the next time...

But, not knowing is ok. Normal. The prevailing condition even.

Not knowing, in some ways, IS trading. The silence, the contemplation, the inaction. Then the trigger, with an expectation but never knowing. And then right or wrong, back to knowing nothing again...

It is no wonder trading feels so difficult. The silence outweighs the noise, and we are left with nothing but ourselves and our confidence or insecurities. If we need to participate, it will take us down. If we fail to act on confidence, same thing. And if failure shakes confidence, it leads to more failure...

But understanding that doing nothing, is more important than doing something, is a critical step.

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GaryD View Post
Lately I find myself opening this page, and then typing nothing. Closing the window and going back to thinking. What is there to say sometimes?

It seems as traders we feel a need to always know what is going on, desire a method that allows us to stay involved, miss a move and wonder how to fix that "error" for the next time...

But, not knowing is ok. Normal. The prevailing condition even.

Not knowing, in some ways, IS trading. The silence, the contemplation, the inaction. Then the trigger, with an expectation but never knowing. And then right or wrong, back to knowing nothing again...

It is no wonder trading feels so difficult. The silence outweighs the noise, and we are left with nothing but ourselves and our confidence or insecurities. If we need to participate, it will take us down. If we fail to act on confidence, same thing. And if failure shakes confidence, it leads to more failure...

But understanding that doing nothing, is more important than doing something, is a critical step.

Greetings..

Not knowing ...a moment within which to wake up perhaps (speaking of which it's 4.45 am here).

Anyway..as to "failure" ?
Is it failing to not know what we don't know anything about (the unknown) ?
now.. that's a tricky one..

keep smiling..

Wishing you well

Every moment I wake up I realize I know nothing, and then I smile...
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GaryD View Post
Lately I find myself opening this page, and then typing nothing. Closing the window and going back to thinking. What is there to say sometimes?

It seems as traders we feel a need to always know what is going on, desire a method that allows us to stay involved, miss a move and wonder how to fix that "error" for the next time...

But, not knowing is ok. Normal. The prevailing condition even.

Not knowing, in some ways, IS trading. The silence, the contemplation, the inaction. Then the trigger, with an expectation but never knowing. And then right or wrong, back to knowing nothing again...

It is no wonder trading feels so difficult. The silence outweighs the noise, and we are left with nothing but ourselves and our confidence or insecurities. If we need to participate, it will take us down. If we fail to act on confidence, same thing. And if failure shakes confidence, it leads to more failure...

But understanding that doing nothing, is more important than doing something, is a critical step.

-----------------------------
Check out this blog post. I commented in there as 'hedvig' as well.

I am NOT a trading psychologist; only a risk specialist who deals in probabilities. More advanced than an actuary because I have SKIN in the game--usually $1-1.5K per trade. When serious coin is put on the table 10-15 or 20-30X's per week; one simply must become comfortable being uncomfortable.

There are no certainties; indeed. No guarantees & 90%+ of my hours in front of the markets intraday I am flat and letting my mind chatter rest while in the background stalking setups with the ferocity and focus of a sociopath.

@greenr writes: " I will follow my rules, I will take my stops, I will be disciplined and i will work with the market....NOT AGAINST IT! Professional mind control is the key"

@researcher247 believes in mastering 1 setup at a time and then trading size with it. No different than a large retail store rolling out a big product launch after extensive 'in-house' research. It either fails or succeeds. Great trading setups that repeat over and over again we increase the inventory (size) and keep making money off of it.

Sometimes we have a weak 'sales' day. So what? We are properly capitalized and @the end of the week, if we honored our rules AND just learned to RELAX while the market is in a state of 'nothingness' (no trade signal)--then it is a boring but highly profitable exchange of time for $$$ {over time--working our edge}.
------------------------------------------
Here is that article. It goes beyond the stale mantra of "I will not break my trading rules."

How Often Do You Break the Rules? | PopDoc Trader

http://www.andrewmenaker.com/how-often-do-you-break-the-rules/

Work on your old habit issues every day for 20 minutes (meditate on it--seriously--imagine scenarios where you are flat and patiently waiting for the void to clear and then immediately acting on your edge when it does appear); you'll come out the other side an AWESOMELY consistent trader.

Trading is boring to me {though I appreciate it more each year}. Treat it like a very high-paying job & then concentrate on at least 2 other passions outside of trading; you'll be a better trader and a better man for it.

I visualize my trading in the last 15 minutes before I go to sleep. I go over concrete and then esoteric concepts and then let my hypnagogic hallucinations (usually with some Green Dragon coursing through my bloodstream) fade into sleep.

@GaryD asked me about music and 'states of mind' recently in an email. I don't use Apple products and I don't want to use technology to try and align my brainwaves when I have thousands of dollars per trade on the line. What I do use and enjoy are 'drone zone' type music stations and recordings that have a pleasing 'aural' tone to me & spectrums of sounds that are similar to 'tonal scales' (but slowed down).

I prefer minor notes in specific chords; however, it doesn't have to be complicated. Whatever 'feels' right for your ears--then when you are trading and NOTHING is happening--you meditate with your eyes open and get your breathing right.

For me that is all that is required. When trading and uncertainty surrounds you--make peace with it and come up with your own 'cone of silence' that is your happy place in a market(s) of nothingness.

When you see your setup(s); attack it--manage it--finish the trade--let go--and then prepare for another. Have GUIDELINES (written) that assist you when to be done for the a.m. or p.m. or day according to your own strengths and weaknesses for your trading style and psychology.

This is no different than alot of sports psychology--if you can't or won't do simple re-inforceable tactics to make trading easier in the face of uncertainty; as a trader--you will never reach the upper echelon nor probably make the money you should be making if you have a repeatable edge that is consistent.

The world needs ditchdiggers & 'yes-men' & 7 Eleven slurpee attendants & prostitutes as well; most are awful jobs; being a good prostitute is an honorable profession; I would totally own a brothel in another country than the U.S. if I wasn't a trader--but we didn't start trading in order to fail after awhile and then go back to a stupid job that a retard can do, now did we?

peace

hedvig


Last edited by researcher247; July 31st, 2012 at 10:28 AM.
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Came out of the gate this morning with -59 ticks (3 contract total), lack of patience. sat back, waited for awhile, took another shot and sitting +36 after the 2nd attempt. The 2nd trade was beautiful, but now may stop. Could have been a stronger day, but the 2nd trade was 2 contracts as I was already down and do not like to keep digging a hole for myself. That is a flaw, I feel. Had I gone in 3 contracts again, I would be up another 50 ticks +/-, which improves my win loss ratio. But my defense mechanism steps in, and I do not trade as well.


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