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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

  #3491 (permalink)
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hobart View Post
Really appreciate the sentiment here. My trading has cycles of profitability that send me to paper or 1/4 unit size in the multi week draws. At some point, i become back in tune and i explode from the gates. My greatest monthly results come after my losing months. After the 5th cycle of that, its not a random phenomenon.


Maybe it is actually "random", but uncertainty with minimal possible outcomes stabilizes into certainty to some degree.

Flipping a coin will result in heads or tails. Looking for an example of certainty in randomness, the odds of swinging from multiple heads in a row to multiple tails in a row, that expectation could be justified as a probable occurence. The "when" is random, but would most likely occur in cycles that if plotted out might look like a repeating pattern, when really it is completely random with every single flip of that coin.

Trading results in wins, or losses. Markets move up, or down. We choose to get in, or out. The possible outcomes are almost always one of two things; 1s or 0s, heads or tails. But if we string those together in a correct sequence, for example buying in an uptrend, or at support, or with volume, and if we set our profits larger than our losses, we can start to bend "randomness" towards a certain direction. And that is where the cycles of profitablity start to become reliable.

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  #3492 (permalink)
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The major LSP in crude is within range...


Last edited by GaryD; July 22nd, 2012 at 08:21 PM.
 
  #3493 (permalink)
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July 22, 2012, 11:51 a.m. EDT

LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- The International Monetary Fund is expected to cut off further rescue aid to troubled Greece, reports said Sunday. The move is likely to lead to debt-saddled Greece's insolvency in September. Reports say Greece will not be able to meet debt-reduction targets by 2020, meaning the country will need $60.8 billion in additional aid. But other European nations are unwilling to keep funding the nation, reports said.




July 20, 2012, 12:36 p.m. EDT

FRANKFURT (MarketWatch) — European stocks posted broad-based losses Friday, with Spanish equities plunging as government bond yields soared on renewed fears the country could be forced to seek a full-fledged sovereign bailout due to its debt burden.

The Stoxx 600 Europe index fell 1.4% to close at 258.17, paring the benchmark’s weekly gain to 0.8%.

Analysts pointed to a combination of factors, including a decision by the Valencia regional government to seek a bailout from Spain’s central government as well as revised economic forecasts by Spain’s government.

“The news out of Spain prompted investors to focus their attention away from the QE3-or-no-QE3 argument for some good old risk-off trading,” said Neal Gilbert, strategist at GFT, in emailed comments, referring to speculation over whether the U.S. Federal Reserve will embark on a third round of quantitative easing, or QE3.

Spanish bonds tumbled, sending the 10-year yield up more than a quarter of a percentage point to 7.23%, according to electronic trading platform Tradeweb. The carnage was more profound at shorter maturities, with the two-year yield soaring more than half a percentage point to 5.70%.

Against this bearish backdrop, Spain’s IBEX 35 index plunged 5.8% to 6,246.30.


Last edited by GaryD; July 22nd, 2012 at 08:08 PM.
 
  #3494 (permalink)
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The S&P has a lot of overlapping as it has been working it's way higher. I have not been watching it very much from an analysis standpoint, but the headlines made me curious how ES was doing overall.

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  #3495 (permalink)
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I shorted the ES last night 1 contract for a decent win, but was surprised how much further it moved through the overnight session. I considered a larger position for a swing trade, but I am in Boston with one laptop and an internet connection that resets itself in the middle of the night.

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I had a similar thought in oil, having gotten close enough to the major LSP to consider it hit,and oil had a more significant move down overnight in ticks, but with the Iran issues keeping the possibility of a spike up I went with ES.

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I don't have time to trade today.

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  #3496 (permalink)
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I am in the BOS airport, flying back to DC for a meeting at 7am, then back to Boston tomorrow night... Working on maybe 15 hours sleep in 4 days. Still not anywhere near "trade ready", but interested in trading ES more than I have been in the past couple years.

I did get to see that ES shorts got hammered through the US session. I have believed for some time "new shorts get slaughtered". But if the move down can break the prior major (360m) low, I am leaning towards W3.

CL hit the DAlt of W2 almost to the tick for whatv could be W4, then reversed, looking like it would put in W5, but then sold off hard into the close. Will it put in a local DB for W5, or, if the LSP is close enough for the ABC completion? That is a tough call from the chart I was able to see this afternoon, and may even be more clear as I type this.

Very interesting chart patterns in both ES and CL right now, and I am hoping to get a chance to take a stance in the next few days. I have a mental "wishlist" for chart patterns and may even swing one if I can catch it right. I'll be operating from the Marriott trade desk starting around 11pm...

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  #3497 (permalink)
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GaryD View Post
"I can guarantee $500.00 per week"...

Well, maybe so, but 500 a week? For, by your own estimate, 80 hours of work for how many years? What does that work out to?

I have to say something. Not enough...I mean, no way. Sorry, you wont convince me otherwise.

My lawyer charges 300.00 an hour, and the stuff you write is way more entertaining than his.

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Well, maybe so, but 500 a week? For, by your own estimate, 80 hours of work for how many years? What does that work out to?

I have to say something. Not enough...I mean, no way. Sorry, you wont convince me otherwise.

My lawyer charges 300.00 an hour, and the stuff you write is way more entertaining than his.



Vince, it has more to do with something other than money.

First, I was talking to my wife and made her a "promise". That is something that means more to me than anything. I could tell several stories to make the point, but with the time I have, just believe me that promises are everything to me. So I said to her, "if I go to trading, I could guarantee" a certain amount.

Second, I trade better when I do not care about money, and I still have some position sizing issues. I have not had any time to just relax for a couple years, and my trade style reflects that. I am planning on taking some trades beyond what I am used to in regards to hold time, and I do not know what to expect when I do. But when the phone stops ringing, the deadlines stop coming at me, and I stop airport hopping, I can get more into a "zone" for longer durations, and I want that experience to have room to be understood.

If I am pressured to make money, I do not believe I will. If I am not pressured, there is nothing but opportunity. The saying "Timing is everything" could not be more important in my mind than in trading. What if I did $500 a week for a month, then $40k in 24 hours? Then back to $500?

Patience.

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  #3499 (permalink)
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Hola younger man,

You do more in a week than I do in a month; for now.

Imagine (go deep--way down--deeper and deeper into the bowels of your overworked brain) you are just chilling and trading 2-2.5 hours in the a.m. on CL & then take a 2 hour lunch.

For the p.m. session you are looking at swingtrade possibilities and if another CL trade speaks to you--you actively engage it.

After 2:30pm est you are now bored out of your f-in' mind. Some gym time, a bike ride or perhaps a nap. Maybe your female is around and you take that for a spin, eh?

4X's a week you prepare a nice wholesome dinner while listening to your favorite mood music or perhaps you allow your mind to reflect and chatter on while you concentrate on your biggest task of the latter-part of the day; a good meal.

1 or 2 times in the evening you look for a swingtrade setup in indices or energies or currencies. If it is there, great--you put on the trade and let your software manage the trade for you.

Later in the evening you can read or relax (not drinking too many beers too many nights a week); perhaps you begin taking a natural evening supplement with theanine and/or other 'calming' factors built in--so you can let all of the hustle and bustle drift away.

Maybe you go out and hunt young women on your yellow bicycle by the lake (oh wait--that is what I do); okay--back to YOUR story.

You start to 'bank' extra-restful and purposeful and MEANINGful deep restorative sleep at least 4X's a week.

Upon arising you casually fire up the charts and you go to the nearest coffee shop 2X's a week (early) and watch all of the people in their metal coffins slurping down toxic (or really good) coffee as they trudge to and fro to their awful/soul sucking/mind numbing/non-autonomous J O B S.

They will never have the freedom you have at that point.

Too much house, too much car, too many spawn, too many consumer items. Buying shit they don't need so they can feel good about themselves. Not even close to having 1 or 2 moments of clarity throughout the day.

SLAVES to their children & all of the 'activities' they relentlessly pursue, SLAVES to their horrible bosses and really stupid (you know who they are) co-workers; co-workers that really deserve to have their faces smashed in when they say and do really stupid things, SLAVES to what a t.v. station or radio station or newspaper or their friends tell them what to react to...

I think you get the point (I went off on a rant there).

Live at the end of a cul-de-sac if you are a suburban guy, your own CONE OF SILENCE. YOU make your own decisions and dictate your OWN schedule. You are your own little chief and the markets are your chiefdom.

So what if you start small (a tiny village). It takes time to grow into a benevolent dictator, hmm???

Time to reflect, time to hunt, time to relax & time to plan for the expansion of a small corporate village.

Screw it. I say @GaryD finally realizes it is his time and he is in control of his emotions, his trading size, his journal & his plans for the future.

This is a positive step; calming the mind & body of extraneous activities and the nonsense of the maddening of the crowds is the next.

True reflection & knowledge (of his craft) comes in steps along the way; after he has swept away all of the clutter.

Hell, I bet his wife will be earning nicely within another year or so. He has it all under control.

Nearing mid-40's and finally letting everything both come to a head and letting it all go.

Each of us has our own timetable. Do you seriously think that if he was executing 50% of what he is showing all of us in real time on his journal that he wouldn't be happy with that for a bit?

All of us have given him feedback and encouragement and at times kicked him in the ass about size. Every single trader finds his own way, his own comfort zone & then ponders how and why and when he will take it to another level (if that is what he truly desires).

For some this is a quick process, for others it is slow and incremental.

Finally, forgetting about the MONEY is absolutely the 'base' that a REAL sustainable trading business foundation is built upon.

Now excuse me; I have to put on another trade (if it sets up properly). Markets are moving nicely this week.

Get some!

Trade what you see...

peace

hedvig

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  #3500 (permalink)
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researcher247 View Post
Hola younger man,

Yo





Finally, forgetting about the MONEY is absolutely the 'base' that a REAL sustainable trading business foundation is built upon.



Trade what you see...

peace

hedvig


For me, this is the key to the whole gag of trading. It ties directly to emotion - my nemesis.

I am a completely different trader when money is NOT on the line....

Quite irritating, really


AJ
Nashville, Tennessee


"Life On The Edge of SR"
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