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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
I am coming to the market tomorrow without any bias. The major trend is certainly still down, but the potential 5WM with local DB may now have a W2 in place on a new uptrend. In this channel I am preferring to trade a breakout over a pullback, but like the blue and green zones for aggressive buys and the red zone for an aggressive sell.
The JPM event on Friday had shorts running for cover, but was it enough to really remove the downward pressure? Or just an opportunity to short?
ES looks ready to continue, with support in the 1340-1342 area...
6E is holding in a tight flag, threatening a measured move higher...
The big 3 say "up" as of distant view charts, but not so much that a pullback is not warranted. CL is overbought on the 360 and already headed south on the 120, 30 and 6 range. Local support may be getting tired, which has me looking a little lower, but not enough to short above the prior top. If that holds and the high above 88 blows, there is some good distance possible on W3 / C
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Either W2 has taken hold with the consolidation area at 83.70-84.10, or remains to find it's base in an ABC, which is the blue zone posted prior. The major LSP as a backstop is almost bound to grab some attention, regardless of the distance it can gather.
My screen layout has changed some over the past few weeks. Tonight I replaced the daily / weekly with the 360 minute, as I want to watch something specific that shows well on that timeframe. I added the ATWRSI back on the 120 (which used to ride on the 93 for several years, very similar).
I am also, with some degree of sadness, considering removing some colors and indicators from my 6 range chart, watching a 7 range and 9 range in plain black & white. I find the indicators often obscure the patterns, and I kind of get the feel of the donchians with or without the T3, but I may decide against it. Or it may just be a supplement. The crossover of the DC has always felt more telling than the T3, but the T3 keeps me on the higher timeframe direction. For now I am just playing with it.
Also added two trial versions of "stay in or else" indicators on the 30minute; SuperTrend and Gann Hi/Lo, and only starting to watch what they do. For now only considering them as trend reversal confirmation, and backtesting did not do much for me as of yet, but to be fair I only spent a few hours at them. I love the concept though, expanding and contracting with volatility...
I am watching how a new indicator performs after backtesting surprisingly well right out of the box on a 120. RSI Stochastic V2... I discovered it reading about trader @bugsbunny recently. Despite being somewhat cautious taking trade advice from Looney Tunes, the guy seemed to talk the talk well enough, and the indicator works as well as any with zero tweaking. His application was a lot different, trading TF on a 4/5 range, and that is not something I am interested in right now, but I am interested in larger swings, and for 2012 it rocks on a 120 ( it lost money on the same settings in 2011).
In some ways I want less indicators, but at the same time I am pushing myself to expand my view some, and that is causing me to look outside my known universe.
I went to the beach with my wife yesterday, rented a body board as she laid in the sun, and had a long talk wiht her about all of the psuchological issues I am dealing with as the date for full time trading gets closer. The fears, the insecurities, the reflection of myself that the markets portray, my view of what is enough... I have set enough away that I can go without a profit for awhile as I find myself in a new career direction, and plan to take Hedvig's advice on reviewing numbers on a less-than-daily basis.
I never liked daily goals before, and find I still don't. If my annual goal was $2k a week, I could make that in a day and just sit tight the other 4 days of the week, and probably feel even better about it. When the right trade comes... There are so many places where I almost know it has 30-50 ticks in it, and even if it doesn't, the trade rating is so much higher than "average". The consolidation trade I missed on Friday is an example. It looked confused, but with 6E and ES blowing the lid off, there weren't many options for CL at that particular moment. Not that it liked "up" as much as ES did, but sometimes that doesn't matter.
If I stay awake, 86.50 may be something to see. I am getting a little more comfortable with overnight trade action. Volume is still watchable, but different, but really the underlying pattern seems to have more to do with overnight than anything.
The reaction at 86.60 was enough to get a few ticks, but I am exhausted and just sat here. Don't really care right now if it is a turn. Tomorrow may say the same, or completely different. Either way I will be better if I sleep.
News headlines today gave me a laugh. Referring to the same news, but two different reports;
"Oil holds above x..." and "Oil falls below x..."
There was impressive resistance at the retest of the high... but I am not interested in shorting it. As long as S1 holds the trend is up to sideways. The fact that the top held also means possible added positions, making that line weaker as it goes.
Now, I might short in this area. If crude has a place to stop for the day, this is probably it. But it is short term counter trend and I am over goal for the day, so may not even care at this point.
