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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
Is this what you have tweeked Super trend to look like Mr Gary...?
Looking good nice and clear
" I will follow my rules, I will take my stops, I will be disciplined and i will work with the market....NOT AGAINST IT! Professional mind control is the key"
No, that is the "old" SuperTrend indicator, just set to default. The credit goes to the author for it's ability to hold the trend, but to be clear, it trails a very good distance behind, so the tight hug is in hindsight.
What I have been using it for is an additional layer of confirmation for the direction I want to be looking in, and for a trend reversal as we saw today.
China's second quarter GDP growth cools to 7.6%
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- China economic growth cooled to 7.6% in the second quarter from a year earlier, easing from an 8.1% expansion in the first quarter, according to data released Friday by the National Bureau of Statistics. The result matched expectations of the median forecast of 15 economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires.
The 7am JP Morgan earnings surprise put a fire under the equites this morning, and it pulled nearly everything along with it. Crude seems to want to pull back, but doing it today had little to no chance. I had pulled up the earnings calendar last night, knowing it would most likely have an impact, and when reported earnings came in much higher than expected, I almost decided to trade the S&P instead.
But then I missed my trades this morning. I was on the phone early, before the open, and discovered a problem that I was not aware of on a job in Boston, which lead to about 2 hours of additional phone calls and research. I walked out of the room for most of it so I was not distracted, and then when I returned it was around noon, the trades I missed would have worked well, and I know at that point I am done for the day. The best trade of the day was the small consolidation right after the 9:30am open. That had continuation all over it.
And once that was gone, and I was not part of it, my odds of success today just diminished.
If I were to rank the negative psychological effect of a past event on a future trade, this is the order;
4) A losing trade
3) A winning trade
2) A winning trade that I did not manage properly
1) A missed trade
Since I was dealt problem number one today, I sat out.
The reason those work the way they do;
Losing Trades - they are expected. The move did not go in my favor? That is nothing. Almost like I don't even feel it at all.
Winning Trades - They feel good, and cause me to want to feel more of it, but the sharp focus gets reduced slightly with each win.
Poorly Managed Wins - My win/loss is up for the day, but I closed way too early, could not hold for a target, etc. Unlike a normal win or loss, which are out of my control to some degree, this mistake is all mine. It lowers my confidence in my ability.
Missed Trades - If I had a trade that I was going to take, and then didn't, and in hindsight it was a homerun... despite the fact that I will never really know how well it would have been managed, to my subconscious I would have been in at the bottom, and out at the top (or reversed for a short). "Hidden revenge" is the term I use. I look for the market to rewind that opportunity, grabbing at what remains and expecting it to be just as good of a setup all over again. PARTICULARLY on a Friday.
So, I accepted today that I missed, I acknowledged that it was Friday, and carefully carved out 10 ticks for myself (-10 and +20), and then just watched. All the way into the 2:30pm close. There were several places I could have gotten in. But it was not as easy for me to tell if they were really good trades, or if I just wanted them to be.
Sitting here on the couch with my wife, trying to explain the similarities of trading and yoga. And possibly making sense...
In August I go to full time. I plan to review my progress with my wife as I go, and review after the first 6 months to decide if it is the right thing or not.
Believing in the possibility, and being concerned about the outcome... I have mastered the first at low leverage, and have witnessed it's defeat by the second at higher leverage. Belief without concern is the correct formula. Having a goal, without requiring that it be met, but still pursuing the goal without compromise... very complex mixture of psychology.
I asked my friend Peter for some guidance on his meditation practice, and plan to do visual work on seeing myself trade correctly, acceptance work on allowing what happens to happen...
At the start of my move to full time I am going to stay with Peter for a week or two. "Prime the pump" in a way. Technical traders will shake their heads at me, and I am very technical, but even with that, there is still a lot to do. The mind is where trading wins or loses. Learning technicals is nothing more than understanding the rules of the game. And that alone has nothing to do with winning.
Your on it , baby... As soon as one has learned Price Action and has spent thousands of hours watching it. The
movement becomes a law or an axiom. The rest is emotions. To act quickly and decisively.
I like to look at the macro charts now to find the major turning points and try to get in on long rides.
But, while it is traveling, sometimes there are little 10 tickers you just grab that are automatics. You've seen
them a hundred times. Just go!!
I would much rather be stopped out than have an opportunity that I missed. Keep those stops tight and
let the winners run. You can't lose. Unless.... you lose control of your emotions.
nice and clear
