I had a long setup around 89.20 in crude, but was not ready to trade when it occured. Did not take it and am just watching right now. Sorry about the delayed response. I am waiting now to see how this move reacts around 90.50 and have a target short possibility around 90.70-91.00, but that depends on volume response. Also, another short entry possibility around 91.70-92.00.
Turns out I should have taken that long after all -- 150 ticks north. I too was unable to trade past 12:15 today, and considered a long before I left my house but I hate doing that. The real trade was long at the area in the chart I posted, had I taken that it would have been in a good position. I dislike having to leave a clearly bullish scenario with a good probability of making money, to go do things which I'm not being paid for but which I have to do and don't particularly enjoy ... but this is life I suppose.
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Crude did follow the "up" direction, as I had thought it might from a coin-flip perspective last night. But for some reason I am still waiting to see what happens in this area.
Crude broke the 90.50 mark, which was a key place I was waiting for, and in a big burst of volume, shyly backed off? Not the behavior I would expect from a raging bullish market, they had the high pivot... Now what? No push to 92+?
Still watching, not saying I'm expecting 92 or 82, as know that is impossible, but keeping my eyes wide open in this area.
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Gary - a belated thanks for starting this journal up again. I'm on vacation right now up in canada but have just started reading again and it is, as always, very educational.
I'm mainly trade TF but equities and crude have been in similar patterns that last few weeks. Definitely a bear flag setting up in both markets on the daily chart but who knows if it will trigger and extend lower. My only perspective here is that there are a lot of traders watching both markets for big moves right now - in my experience, this scenario usually leads to range-bound trade because any trader that expects a big move won't mind chasing strong moves in either direction because they feel the perceived potential for reward (i.e., the big move) justifies the risk. This makes them easy targets for the bigger traders because they are in effect buying high and selling low - and I think the bigger traders will just keep taking the easy money until it stops flowing. This is usually the point at which the breakout chasers get worn out or their volume stops fueling the swings... Then the market can begin to mount a new campaign.
I feel like based on the size of that big move down from late July that this market could move sideways for another week or even two before it recovers its ability to start a big move. Of course this is all speculation - and mind you I'm on vacation so my relaxation-addled brain is perhaps not as sharp... or maybe I have the benefit of detached perspective. Who knows?
Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
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On the daily I have been watching for some extended down move, we had high volume halt the up move around 89.35, which was the 618 of the move down, and has created a bearish engulfing on the 30 minute. Sell area 89.00 +/-?